Monday Forecast

93 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
The pattern for the time being is zonal (west to east) but active. A weak low pressure system will pass through the region today and tonight but precipitation (mainly rain) will be limited. Two dry days will follow, and the next system, a little more potent but with milder air ahead of it, will bring a more widespread but short-lived rain event Thursday, mainly the first part of the day. The will be followed by a push of windy, dry, colder air by Friday.
TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain/mix/snow with no accumulation. Highs 36-42. Wind light N to NE.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-39. Wind light N to NE.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 39-45. Wind light N to NE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind light NE to N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-48. Wind light variable to SE.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
This busy pre-Thanksgiving period for shopping and travel will likely be impacted by 2 storm systems, the first on November 18-19 weekend with rain possibly starting as snow/sleet interior areas Saturday followed by drier but windy and much colder on Sunday. After a more tranquil but chilly early week we’ll have to watch for another system near the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
A blocking pattern is expected to occur and this may result in 1 or 2 storm threats heading into the late part of the month. Will monitor the pattern evolution. At this time not seeing any return to the warm pattern we had previously.

93 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A couple of morning thoughts:

    1. I HATE Mondays
    2. I thoroughly enjoyed the Pats Game. I think they handled the losses of
    Edelman and Hogan very well. TB12 threw to Nine (9) different receivers! 9 !!!
    No one in the NFL does that.
    3. I heard complaints about their defense. I thought they were fine. More of the bend,
    don’t break style they have employed before. They were also missing
    a couple of pieces yesterday. One thing on defense where I agree, Butler had a rough
    night. He got turned around often and when he did have tight coverage, Sanders
    managed to haul it in anyway.
    4. UNLESS the precipitation comes down pretty decently, I don’t see even a chance
    of snow or mix in Boston. Perhaps North and West of the city. Driving in it was 40
    already.
    5. So far, Nothing is getting me excited about the upcoming weather. We shall see
    around and after Thanksgiving.

    I reserve the right to re-comment after the 12Z runs. 😀

  7. Thanks TK. Another cold one here in Plymouth, NH. Really a very winter-like stretch of temperatures. A few snowflakes in the air; we’re fighting dry air here, not the thermal profile. The HRRR suggests we’ll overcome it enough to perhaps get a coating up to an inch. Looking at radar over New York, I think that’s reasonable.

    Powerhouse storm on the way for the center of the country later this week. Severe weather to the south, snow on the backside. We’ll be mostly on the warm side in New England. Some frozen precip possible in central and especially northern New England. Beyond then, no specific storm threats, but the pattern remains favorable for storminess.

  8. What’s up with our wonderful NWS?????

    Taunton Radar down for MAINTENANCE yet again!!! Why can’t they
    get that right. It seems it’s always down for maintenance and ALWAYS when
    we have precipitation or precipitation on the way!

    !@*(&#T^&*!@^#$&*(T^!&*@#%^&*!@^#$&*!@%^%@%&$^!%@&%$!@

      1. SO JJ is it really snowing at your location or is that radar
        display bogus? OR it is not reaching the ground???

  9. Another reason it will not snow in Boston.
    Temperature is 43, but more importantly, the Dew Point is 37 while at Worcester
    a mere 40 or so miles away, the temperature is 37, however the dew point is 28.

  12. According to the temperature profile, I sense a winter time-like coastal front just S/E of Boston. SE MA temps are in low 50s while 30s/40s elsewhere.

  13. Just came back to the office. Temperature dropped from 43 to 40 with the onset of the rain, but then went back up to 41. Rain drops feel very cold as if they were snow flakes
    that just melted. Hey wait a minute, today those rain drops are just that. 😀

    1. This upcoming winter might not be a bleak in terms of snow as we here thought earlier. Of course the very warm October not very encouraging. 😀

  18. JPDave to answer your question from earlier there were snow flakes mixing in with the rain as the precipitation started.

    1. I am somewhat surprised that Worcester was still reporting
      light rain at 37. Down to 36 now, I wonder if it has flipped?

  21. I hope nobody was expecting any snow in the immediate Boston area today. The snow threat was really more for higher elevations of north central MA northward.

    Elsewhere it was at most just on the mild side of borderline.

      1. Although, to be honest, I was expecting SNOW at 1,000 foot
        Worcester airport. Most surprised that was not the case.

        1. 3PM Worcester Observation

          Worcester, Worcester Regional Airport, MA
          (KORH) 42.27056N 71.87306W
          2 Day History

          Light Rain
          36.0 °F
          Last Updated: Nov 13 2017, 2:54 pm EST
          Mon, 13 Nov 2017 14:54:00 -0500
          Weather: Light Rain
          Temperature: 36.0 °F (2.2 °C)
          Dewpoint: 32.0 °F (0.0 °C)
          Relative Humidity: 86 %
          Wind: North at 5.8 MPH (5 KT)
          Wind Chill: 31 F (-1 C)
          Visibility: 10.00 miles
          MSL Pressure: 1026.6 mb

  22. Was glad to see Ryan Hanrahan get that chief job. One of the best broadcast mets in our region. Top 5.

    Looking at dual pol radar, I’d put the melting level near and west of Boston at about 2,000ft. That rises closer to 4,000ft in southeast MA. Close, but no cigar for the lower elevations.

  23. I don’t think I posted this one of the panel of TV meteorologists that did a nice Q&A session. It was the final presentation of the SNE Weather Conference.

    In this picture from L to R are: Jacob Wycoff, Chelsea Priest, Shiri Spear, Barry Burbank, Ryah Hanrahan, Michael Page, and Harvey Leonard.

    Standing behind the panel are 2 people, the one on the left I cannot remember their name, and the one on the right (with glasses) is Glenn Field from NWS Taunton (soon to be NWS Boston / Norton).

    https://scontent.fbed1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/23467378_10155878262627265_8447695376886999128_o.jpg?oh=a5ce9d0cf11be32784424932bda70bea&oe=5A670F99

      2. They are moving to Norton. They are literally moving to a new office next door to the one they are in. The line just happens to be between their current building and the new one. 😉

  25. What gives at Worcester?

    Worcester, Worcester Regional Airport, MA
    (KORH) 42.27056N 71.87306W
    2 Day History

    Light Rain
    35.0 °F
    Last Updated: Nov 13 2017, 3:54 pm EST
    Mon, 13 Nov 2017 15:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Light Rain
    Temperature: 35.0 °F (1.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 32.0 °F (0.0 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 89 %
    Wind: Northeast at 6.9 MPH (6 KT)
    Wind Chill: 29 F (-2 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1026.6 mb
    Altimeter: 30.28 in Hg
    Latest Raw Observation

    If the thermal profiles ARE what we thought they were, it Should be snowing
    at Worcester, yet it RAINS!

      1. HA HA. Well it wasn’t when I posted it.

        That damn site can’t get their act together.

        Must be fake radar. 😀

  28. Rain Snow line is currently between Portsmouth, NH (Rain) and Rochester, NH (snow).
    And Between Machester, NH (snow) and Nashua, NH (Rain).

  29. I drove thru some big wet flakes mixed in with the rain right around the Westboro rest stop on the pike around 4:30. Great big wet flakes smacking the windshield.

  30. Dhring a drive from Marlborough to Clinton, had a snow/rain mix change to mostly snow about an hour or so ago. Was surprised to see the snow at this elevation (roughly 300′). But I also saw TK’s post on the storm chaser FB page about the burst of intensity at that time.

  31. First inch of snow for the season confirmed here in Plymouth, NH. More like 1.5”.

    Excellently modeled by the HRRR this morning. That model is simply the best for near term forecasting. Not a bad job by the NAM either the last few days. Second time early this season it has outperformed the global guidance inside 3 days on one of these smallish events. Which I suppose is its whole reason for existence, but that hasn’t always worked out so well 😉

  36. It would not be the first time in my life there has been snow on the ground on Thanksgiving and I assume Matt that is what you mean by saying it looks interesting around Thanksgiving. 1989, 2002, and 2005 I had a White Thanksgiving.

  37. It was a winter wonderland up in the White Mountains this past weekend. We ended up hiking Mt Pierce on Saturday from Crawford Notch (it’s about 4300′ elevation). It was a good hike for a cold winter like day as only the summit is above treeline so you still get the great views but limit your exposure. I would say temps were mainly in the teens to low 20’s but the wind chill at the summit was below zero. The trail was covered in snow for the entire length…I’d say an inch or two at the bottom and maybe 3″ at the top. This was the view from the summit looking north towards Eisenhower with Mt Washington in the background. Gorgeous crystal clear day; visibility must have been 80+ miles!

    https://s17.postimg.org/l70z4tl1r/IMG_6862.jpg

    2. The grande dame herself. I could look at that view forever. Thank you for sharing. If you listen carefully, you may actually here my dad and many like him shushing down the grand mountain.

    1. Not happy about it but I read he wasn’t getting along with some of the younger players in the clubhouse which is never a good thing. Sometimes you don’t know the full story about what is going on behind closed doors. I just hope they bring in someone good.

      1. A lot of names being mentioned as next Yankees manager Eric Wedge, John Flaherty, Aaron Boone, and I heard today Carlos Beltran.

  40. Not sure if anyone saw the latest edition of the NWS Newsletter (Prevailing Winds). A couple things caught my interest in there:

    1. NWS is simplifying the Winter watches and warnings this year. No more freezing rain advisory and no more blizzard watches.

    2. NWS is moving next door from Taunton to Norton as noted above in the blog. There is an article on the progress of the move in there.

    3. There is another nice feature on WxWatcher in there. Great article!

    NWS Taunton Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter:
    https://www.weather.gov/media/box/PrevailingWindsFall2017.pdf
    http://www.wx1box.org/local/Issue7_volume_2_PrevailingWindsFall2017.pdf

    2. cool but I still do not think its a good idea to seprate some of those advisories and watches. A blizzard watch just meant that Blizzard conditions were possible

  41. A family friend of Macs lives in Mercer island Washington. She said there is a huge storm, lots of wind and power out. She is cozy by the fire and enjoying a Manhattan…..I’m soooooooo jealous

    1. From the album of the same name. Fabulous. I’ve been a fan of Joe for years and I have followed him through every album including “Fast-Forward” from just a couple years ago.

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