Tuesday Forecast

60 Comments

3:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
No real changes to the previous discussion. Low level moisture hangs in today with clouds, which then break up under high pressure Wednesday. West to east flow brings the next wet weather system through the region Thursday followed by the arrival of the next Saturday. In between those will come a bright and dry day on Friday.
TODAY: Any spotty light rain/snow ends early otherwise cloudy. Highs 39-45. Wind light N to NE.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind light NE to N.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 42-48. Wind light variable to SE.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely. Clearing late. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives and may start as snow/mix interior areas. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Storm system departs November 19 leaving windy and drier weather with falling temperatures. We transition into a pattern of more blocking with high pressure over Greenland and a trough in the eastern US. This should result in another most likely minor low pressure system impacting this area sometime between November 21 and 23 but unsure of details at this time. Fine-tuning to do.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
A blocking pattern is expected to continue into this period and this may result in 1 or 2 storm threats heading into the late part of the month. Will monitor the pattern evolution.

60 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK…

    According to the radar display, it snowed even in the city an hour or 2 ago.

  6. Thanks Tk. I know it’s early but do we have a timeframe for the rain on the south shore for Saturday . I’m very busy and may need to schedule jobs for Friday. Sunday is dry correct . Thank you .

    1. At this point I’d say you’re dry through 9AM possibly 10AM Saturday.

      Sunday morning may start damp but the vast majority of the day will be dry.

      1. TK – will it be a steady rain on Saturday? I have a bunch of volunteers carrying banners in the Plymouth Thanksgiving parade so obviously we are all watching the weather. 🙂

      2. Thanks I think I’ll take Friday off and do estimates on Saturday as I’m straight out . Maybe get a quick job in first thing Saturday.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Haven’t posted for a bit and haven’t checked posts from yesterday. What happened to that little area of low pressure that was supposed to only give us a spot shower or two? On Sunday’s TV forecasts the models projected the low would redevelop over the Atlantic, but basically pass us by unscathed. Did it redevelop closer to the coast? While the rain wasn’t constant it was fairly steady and certainly not confined to showers. I am taking the very early morning train to NYC for a work engagement, and this morning at 4:45am when I was walking to the train station it was still raining.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    I’m told we had some nice big snowflakes early morning. Even when my eyes opened, it was light snow. If you looked very, very hard, you could see some on the lawn.

  15. 12Z Euro depicting a MAJOR East Coast Storm for about 11/24-11/25 or so.
    As depicted it is 12Z 11/24 sitting in the Northern Gulf. Below are the surface map, 500MB and 300MB maps. It almost looks like a split flow with cold air being
    fed in up here and loaded to the South. IF and I say a BIG IF, this were to happen
    this way, it “may” slide out just South of us or fringing us at best. BUT it is 10 days
    out, so who knows. Nice set up none-the-less.

    https://imgur.com/a/XHWJM

    1. I see this with a grain of salt as JJ would say, BUT “could” this be
      the PV storm AccuWeather was hyping a week or so ago??????

    2. We can’t really call that an East Coast storm yet as it’s still in the Gulf on that run, and also completely different from previous runs (regarding its handling of the southern energy while the northern energy remains handled about the same).

      1. Well, of course, But as depicted and with the upper winds
        depicted it would be. Would it get up here? Not likely, but
        If it were sitting off the coast of SC or NC, would it not be
        an East coast storm.

        I understand it is 10 days out and we know happens to these
        things that far out. 😀

  16. Thanks for your answers to my question above. So NAM did well this time. I wonder what the storm is doing in the Maritimes. Enough cold air for snow? Perhaps not.

    It’s a bit chilly in NYC, but not like Boston. I do love this city, though, and its people. Boston’s my first love and also a place that feels like home. But, among world cities – ie, on a scale of Paris or London – New York has exceptionally friendly people. Sure, some are rude, but for the most part I find New Yorkers open and kind to outsiders. It’s a melting pot like no other place I’ve ever seen.

    1. I think that this Thanksgiving there will be plenty of cold to our north and west. Whether the jet stream will cooperate is the big question, as that would serve to both guide storms in our direction and preferably just to our south and east.

    1. Fantastic. Thank you for sharing.

      That village mentioned is etched in stone to my brain. I have known
      of that village since my school days. I don’t know if it was a Geography teacher,
      a past Meteorologist on air, or my own inane interest in weather, climate and geography. But I most certainly knew of the village/town of Verkhoyansk, Siberia. 😀

      1. Yes, little do the villagers of Kimmirut and Verkhoyansk know that they have a following of sorts with weather nuts like us.

    1. My gauge read 0.27 inches. Now I am wondering. My gauge was accurate, so I wonder if it has somehow gone out of calibration. OR, is the damn Logan gauge
      screwed up??? Judging by the puddles around here yesterday, I’d say my gauge was spot on.

  21. Don’t get too excited about a combination polar jet (cold air) and subtropical jet (moisture) combo before Thanksgiving. Very unlikely.

    1. I don’t pay attention to the 18z or 6z unless we are like 2 days before the event and or have back up from the 00z and 12z

      1. I’ve finally figured out the biases of 06z and 18z so I use them with anticipated errors factored in – loosely of course. The reality is, 06z and 18z are not really much “worse” than 00z and 12z. We’ll get into that later.

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