Wednesday Forecast

148 Comments

3:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)
Low pressure slowly organizes and passes just southeast of Cape Cod today bringing some snow and rain to the region this morning and midday. The timing of the heaviest snow is not great for commute time and will slow things down, but this is a far cry from what was experienced on January 4, being a “milder” storm system of short duration, without wind, and not followed by a bitter blast of arctic air, rather just a more typically chilly January air mass. So about that accumulation? No big changes, just taking a bit off the coastal and southeastern areas, which were never destined for much anyway. And it will not freeze solid into a block that sits forever. Yes it freezes up a bit through late week then vanishes this coming weekend as we warm up.
TODAY: Overcast with snow except rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and snow to rain remainder of Cape Cod up to the MA South Shore through southeastern RI and possibly Cape Ann MA, all tapering off early afternoon and may end as a little drizzle in Metro Boston. Snow accumulation from nothing outer Cape Cod and Nantucket to a coating to 1 inch western part of Cape Cod, 1-3 inches South Coast and immediate East Coast of MA including Boston, 3-5 inches I-95 to I-495 corridor westward with around 6 inches in some higher elevations. Highs 28-33 interior, 34-39 coast with mildest Cape Cod. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy evening with a brief shower of mix/snow possible. Clearing overnight. Watch for icy untreated surfaces. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)
Front slips south of the region Monday January 22 which turns cooler and probably cloudy and a touch of light rain or ice may move across some areas by evening, then a milder Tuesday January 23 with rain showers, a fair and colder Wednesday January 24 then moderating temperatures again later next week (January 25-26).

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)
The final days of January 2018 look as if they will bring a slightly more unsettled pattern to the region but not seeing major cold or winter storm signals at this point. Will continue to re-evaluate this period.

148 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

      1. Yeah I am in Woburn. Surprised really I thought they would have it. If 3-4” sets the standard…

        2. It’s not about the total amount. It’s about the timing. See where I addressed this yesterday.

          They made the right decision today. Had this been coming at 3PM, then school could have been held without any real issue.

          1. I disagree. IF there was already 6+” on the ground and it was snowing heavily (not this borderline moderate stuff now) then we would have something. This? Sorry, no

            1. Do you have children getting on the bus this morning or walking to school? I’m guessing you don’t. Your opinion will change when you do.

          2. I was home today anyway so not a big deal was just surprised. My oldest did have school so they are split ha.

          3. You are correct TK. Towns know their student population and make decisions based on its safety. There really is no Monday morning quarter backing when it comes to kids. Just my opinion

          4. Couldn’t a 2 hour delay have been a possibility since it looks like this thing will only hit the lower end NW of Boston?

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Snowing steadily here in JP. Good solid light, not moderate. Not sure it will ever
    get moderate. This is a WIMPORAMA!!

    Looking over all models, 1-3 in the City at best. Not due to rain, but due to 2 factors:

    1. NOT enough qpf
    2. Wet snow that will limit accumulations for the qpf we do get.

    Overall, not surprised. Earlier runs showing more qpf ans snow were over cooked. That is all, including the almighty Euro.

    Now, I have to go to work and attend another brutal meeting that I truly cannot stand. A colossal waste of time.

    An after this so-called event, what do we have to look forward to? NOTHING!!

    1. hey, after I posted this, i notice that it remains current and the last few frame is now showing some life. Looks like some moderate snow out there. hmmm

  9. Here is the 6z3km nam kuchera snow

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018011706/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    notice the jackpot in the city???
    shows no rain for the city, yet look at the tremendous accumulation. Nice, eh?

    Here is part of the reason. The charlie hole was extended all the way to boston and beyond, thus losing hours of qpf and accumulation. This should have been reason #3 above. Sort of a snow shadow between the primary precip shilef and coastal redevelopment precip shield. Caught in the middle if you will.

  11. Thank you TK

    Snow started late here….4:30. Or perhaps timing changed and I missed it

    Schools closed out here wisely but also wisely waited until morning rather than making the decision last night. I believe there are few to no kids who walk in Sutton and the buses sure don’t belong on the narrow, winding roads.

  12. Already at least one aspect of today’s forecast up in flames, which is the 2-3″ of snow on much of Cape Cod this morning. Elsewhere… Still looking at mostly 3-6.

  14. Nws tweet:

    Dual-pol radar (in this case correlation coefficient) shows us the rain/snow line along the Elizabeth Islands to the S coast of the Cape (the yellow band). Not going to be in a hurry to move north given the current low track

  17. Looking only, I’d say we are just over the 1 inch mark with moderate snow. May be more like JPD’s borderline moderate.

    1. it could.
      When I cleaned my car off, we already had a solid 1 inch and it was snowing decently. Then I got gas and it diminished some. Now at the office it has picked up a little again.

      My office window is exactly 2/3 of a mile from Mission Basilica in Roxbury Crossing. I CANNOT see the church, therefore the visibility is LESS than 2/3 mile.

  20. Wasted snow day for the schools here in Coventry CT. We have under an inch of snow, I can still see blades of grass showing, and the roads are treated and clear. We will be lucky to crack one inch by the looks of the radar.

    1. Looks to be an inch or so here in Enfield CT just across the line from E. Longmeadow, MA. I can see grass. It’s just barely snowing. An inch of snow I can definitely live with.

  21. Wise call by BPS not to cancel today. Side roads have some snow but overall glad they held tough on cxl.

  24. 12Z NAM Kuchera Snow from 7AM onward. Big Woof!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018011712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=028

    12Z NAM develops a gorilla to our South.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2018011712&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=024

    too bad…… OTS it goes.

    Nice 500mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2018011712&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=024

    Too flat at 200 mb, takes it East.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2018011712&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=024

    2. For the major roadways
      We are already plowing at our properties in Roslindale. Of course we don’t have the same budget as Boston for salt. They had the hill at the top of Washington completely coated in salt before the snow started.

  29. With the exception of the miss on the Cape, I think this forecast is working out well. Most places should end up in that 3-6 range, with more 6-7″ reports in far western MA/CT. Looks like maybe a bit of a snow gap in west central MA.

    1. Was just going to ask about that…I know this still has a while to go but seems like central MA is under a big gap for a while and I think they were in the 4-7″ range…curious if it will make that?

      1. There will definitely be a fairly wide stripe out there that misses that range. Areas west and northwest of Springfield got a pretty good jump start last night from the initial wave of snow, so there are already 5-7” reports in that region. But between Springfield and Worcester it looks like there was a gap where some places will probably only get 2-4” in total.

        1. I am in Woburn…radar looks snow but it’s all but stopped for now where I am. People already out shoveling ha. I am waiting until 1-2pm.

  32. The snow may be wet, but the ratio is still up there a bit. I think it is a minimum
    of 10:1 and could be as high as 12:1.

    1. yup. looks pretty though. I like this type of snow. The brown grass and trees are all covered and the roads look great !

          1. Just looking quickly at a 0z surface map tonight, you might think we were in for a blizzard tomorrow. Alas, that’s why we have upper air charts 🙂

            1. Indeed. Earlier I posted the 500MB
              which looked like we would get a BOMB up here. BUT, I also posted the 200MB chart
              and it clearly showed that the whole 500mb pattern would be shunted Eastward and the storm would move
              ENE or even Eastward out WELL South
              of us.

              Too bad. That would have been a good one.

  37. Just measured 2.1” of snow in Wrentham. Meh. We may just squeak into the 3-6 range, but with the temperature now at 33 and the intensity pretty light, we’ve certainly seen the bulk of the accumulation here.

  40. Picked up a bit here too but nothing crazy. Just glad we aren’t getting blasted with cold after. This stuff should be gone over the weekend.

    2. It appears to be falling apart.
      What a WIMPORAMA!!! Putridly pathetic. It should have just remained
      SUNNY.

  44. Had a voice message from my sister in law in Atlanta. She said Atlanta is at a standstill and central and northern counties are in a SOE. This is due to weather. Not sure what is going on south of here so will have to call her back in a bit.

    3. They listen to the same reporting system over and over and cannot figure out what the problem is. Boggles my mind. The major stations handled it well – AGAIN. So why go to the ones you absolutely know will hype things?

  52. Pretty big forecast bust here in north-central CT and portions of central MA. We have been in a snow hole for the duration of the system. We’ll call it 1″ of accumulation. Blades of grass are showing on the ground. Still flurrying.

    1. NWS seemed to be picking up on that hole last night just further east than it ended up. They had it maybe over the I95 corridor.

  53. 12z GFS and CMC are uneventful through the end of January though Judah Cohen is grasping at straws with this tweet from yesterday:
    ‏
    @judah47
    Unusually strong signal from the GFS ensembles this morning for new #snowfall across New England for the end of January.

    1. Note TK’s thoughts above for days 11-15. His snow suggestion might not be totally off base. But at the same time no way Boston sees anywhere near 64 inches.

      1. I don’t see him forecasting snow in this time period but he leaves the door open saying “unsetteled” and that he will continue to evaluate this time period.

        I will say that the models do have some storm threats over the next few weeks and the last several days of the month do have a somewhat colder look to them in comparison to next week but not getting my hopes up!

  54. I am going with the mind set we won’t see any meaningful snow until February. Winter will not be over despite the calls for a warm end to January although many people will declare winter over.

    1. Yeah as a guy who doesn’t like snow I don’t even begin the mental process of “it’s almost over” until at least mid-February.

  55. I might have 2 inches. Roads are clear. 37 degrees.
    What a wasted school snow day. Should have been a delay at best.

  56. This looked like the `snows’ we’d get in Holland. Basically wet snow that doesn’t do anything except be a nuisance.

    On the other hand, the deep south is encountering some real weather-related issues. My daughter can’t fly to Boston today because her flight and almost all others out of New Orleans were cancelled. Got to the low 20s last night and they’ve had some ice and snow on the roads (colder than Boston; go figure).

    1. That is what I am understanding in Atlanta. My sister in law left a VM but I have be unable to reach her.

      And my youngest did a bit of shoveling and said it is wet/heavy snow.

  59. School was open and on time here in Wrentham. Great decision. We did not make 3″ here.

    The rest of this month looks pretty uneventful. Again, this is something myself and several others have been expecting for some time. Doesn’t mean we can’t sneak a surprise snow event in before February, but the background state is much less favorable than it has been for the past several weeks. I think we’ve hit all the boxes for the front loaded winter, and appropriately the back half should start on a quiet note. Going into early February, there remain some indications that we’ll shift back to a colder/stormier pattern, but I would expect any such shift to be of shorter duration than the pattern we’ve seen most of this winter.

    2. Outstanding. I’m ready for an easier middle and latter part of winter.

      Plus, I think I go over on the snow contest if Logan gets much more snow. 🙂 🙂

      1. Without tracking snowstorms, the rest of winter will go by very slowly. Not much to look forward to.

        1. Harder to come by does not mean there wont be more storms to track. Perhaps less frequent, but there will be more chances for sure.

  60. I know TK will agree when I say that I really enjoy events like this. We’ve really been spoiled the past several winters with a lot of big snow events, and fewer ones like this. Maybe that’s climate change related, maybe it’s cyclic or maybe a coincidence, but events like this go to show that winter storms aren’t “all or nothing”. There’s all kinds of in between in weather.

    1. I sure do agree with your view. Not only do I enjoy the events but it is absolutely beautiful to watch!!

  61. I need an accurate forecast for work ASAP . Do we have freeze concerns this afternoon/ tonight .

    1. With temps falling into the 20’s tonight after dark, untreated wet/slushy surfaces will have freeze concerns for sure.

  62. Vicki, I just checked the trains from New Orleans and they’re not running either (Lisa’s with a friend who absolutely must get back to Scotland on Friday – flight to Glasgow is out of Providence). So, I’m assuming this extends to Atlanta as well. Snow and ice can really bring the south to a standstill.

    1. Thank you, Joshua. My SIL said their is a state of emergency in Atlanta – or perhaps parts of it. Her VM was a bit vague. I sure hope your daughter’s friend gets back to Scotland…..one of the places I would love to see since both Mac and I are of Scottish descent….more Mac than I.

  63. I’ve always loved these kinds of events. Shoveling is all done, but am I physically beat from my entire day. A shower will be nice, and then I’m heading to the Bruins game this evening. 😀

  64. I never thought I would be saying this but Dr. Cohen’s outlook has been pretty much spot on in terms of snow and especially cold. It will be interesting if his thoughts on snow the end of the month come to fruition. Even though Logan is a little more than halfway in terms of normal snowfall, he should fall well short of his prediction of 64 inches. February would have to have one snow event after another.

    I would be curious if he predicted a front loaded winter as well.

    1. I don’t think he specified if he thought one half would be snowier than the other. When he explained his forecast I thought it was well-done although I thought he went a bit high for snow as compared to my own assessment. But all it takes is 1 storm to move 200 miles one way instead of another and the difference in snow can be 16, 18, 20 inches, or even more. Trying to forecast snowfall down to the nearest inch is an interesting mix of challenging, brave, and sometimes just plain foolish. 😉

  67. Raleigh NC has reported heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibility for 4 straight hours. I’m looking forward to seeing some of the accumulations down there.

    1. I found this.

      No. 1 – Jan. 25, 2000 – 20.3 inches of snow
      No. 2 – Feb. 10, 1948 – 14.5 inches of snow
      No. 3 – March 2, 1980 – 11.1 inches of snow
      No. 4 – Jan. 3, 2002 – 10.8 inches of snow
      No. 5 – Feb. 19, 1979 – 10.4 inches of snow

  70. Tom Brady jammed his throwing hand at practice after accidentally being run into, according to a source. X-rays showed no structural damage.

  71. 4.5 inches after all was said and done…not too bad…I was expecting wet snow when I went out to clean up bur I couldn’t even make a decent snowball…let’s get through this boring stretch and the set off a stormy February

    1. So different from Sutton. Our snow was wet and we have two handsome snowmen in the neighborhood. What an amazing part of the country we live in.

  72. It’s 22F in Barrow, AK ….. milder than most everywhere along the Gulf coast, right across to the border of Georgia and Florida.

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