Thursday Forecast

73 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)
Watch for icy untreated surfaces this morning! A combination of sunshine and very dry air today will help reduce the amount of this ice so that when it gets cold again tonight there will be less of it. A disturbance well pass through the region early Friday with perhaps a brief passing snow shower mainly northern MA and southern NH with otherwise a sun/cloud mix during the day. After this a weekend warm-up will erase any remaining ice and snow on the ground. A cold front will slip through from the north by early Monday turning it chilly again and clouds will be dominant, with maybe even a touch of very light rain or sleet. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a snow shower northern MA and southern NH early. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 44-51. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)
A milder wet day January 23. Windy and colder January 24. Fair with a moderating trend thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
A pattern somewhat similar with a milder/wet start, brief chill-down, then moderation.

73 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yesterday was horrid. Brutally long meeting and then I went to produce annual
    stats for our executive director and found my database had gone Poof! Vanished into
    thin air! Fortunately we back up our servers in the cloud, but our cloud service
    had to go all the way back to August, 2017 to find my Database. Damn! Had to
    work last night at home to produce all of the stats. BAD day yesterday.
    All stats delivered this morning.
    Hoping for a better day today. We shall see.

    Weatherwise. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRING!!!

    If we can’t have cold and snow, then PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE
    just go ahead and bring on SPRING. Screw this kind of boring Winter weather.
    I actually wouldn’t mind an Early Spring at all. Looking forward to fishing again.

  7. I’m going to go on record and say “Yesterday’s even was the last snowfall of the season”…………………………………………just kidding 😀

  9. While I agree that the pattern may become boring regarding winter weather potential in the northeast, I think we may have plenty to track with severe weather threats in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, as well as the southeast in the not too distant future.

    The pattern will create these opportunities. Depends on the strength and location of the dynamics. Today, we are 4 weeks beyond the solstice, so quicker increases in strength of solar radiation are due soon, providing additional fuel for severe weather events.

    As a general severe weather outlook, I believe the odds favor a higher than average amount of severe weather in the US this year.

  11. Lots of winter to go still guys. Enjoy any reprieve. Cost me $722 in oil to heat my house during that two week cold stretch.

    1. Tons of oil in the Rockies they aren’t allowed to extract…”environmental concerns.” Saw a show on NatGeo (maybe?) saying they predict enough for .25 a gallon prices (not that they would sell it that low).

      1. I have “staying warm concerns” lol.

        Funny how “environmental concerns” aren’t as important when it comes to pumping it out of the ground somewhere else or the dangers and inherent risk with little dots shipping it over a punishing ocean. I won’t even get into the pollution over the wars we fight protecting it over there. But, I suppose we feel better about it being safely embedded in rock over here. At least until the earth splits itself open someday and it spills out all over the ground anyway. 😉

  13. Does anyone have any thoughts about March, April,May? Solar angle a little higher now feels pretty good outside today.

    1. Mild and dry spring. Mildest relative to normal in March then a little closer to normal with cool shots & warm spikes April / May. I’ll get into this in detail during February.

  14. Significant snow is over for this season. We won’t see anything above six inches in Boston. Screenshot this and frame it because I will be right. lmao

  16. As winter `draws to a close,’ we’re experiencing two straight days that are more or less `average’ for the time of year. As spring arrives this weekend, I expect to see plows to be removed from trucks by Sunday, daffodils by the end of next week, leaves on the trees by the end of the month, the return of migrant birds by the first week of February, and restaurant patios to reopen by President’s Day.

  17. So we got the dry weather and the chill today / Friday, the mild Saturday / Sunday. Next week is interesting in that we are much cooler and probably overcast Monday though it remains to be seen if we squeak out a little light precipitation in there. Tuesday looks mild/wet. Colder and drier middle of next week, then moderation. We’ll have to watch the final 5 days of the month for a storm threat in there in which the system passes over or south of the region with a threat of a variety of precipitation.

    I like a milder and slightly drier than normal February early look.

      1. Not really. 🙂 We have 28 days to achieve that mild/dry “total”. We’ll shovel snow at least once.

            1. Overall dry and mild pattern does not mean every day is dry and mild. You know better than that. 😛

  19. As TK and others have pointed out, with the pattern change on tap we’ll have brief cold spells followed by longer periods of relatively mild weather. Surely, this does not mean no snow or even no cold. I do think it means we’ve seen the coldest that winter has to offer this year. Winter’s trough was early this year and while it still may pack some punches it’s going to be more of the periodic jab kind.

  20. Today was the 2017 climate report release day for NOAA. Per their calculations, 2017 was Earth’s third warmest year on record, surpassed by only 2016 (warmest) and 2015 (second). This near record warm ranking comes despite the absence of the El Nino which helped propel 2015 and 2016 to the top of the list, though some lingering effects of that El Nino likely contributed. Nonetheless, it is clear that in a “normal” climate we would’ve expected to fall much deeper through the pack than third. We can safely pin the primary blame for 2017’s high ranking on human induced global warming. The report is linked below.

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201713

    Given a weak La Nina background state, I would expect 2018 to be a little cooler than 2017, but I would still bet on a top 10 warmest year. I would imagine the only thing that could stop us from continuing to rack up top 10 warm years would be a shift to a sustained negative PDO pattern, with a negative AMO also having some ability to contribute. And we should see that happen in the coming decade or two. They’ve both been mainly positive in recent decades. The quiet solar cycle we’re entering could contribute some slight cooling as well. But that would all just be prolonging the inevitable warming. Eventually those factors will all cycle back to positive as well, the ocean related ones maybe faster than normal given the human influence. And I expect that natural warmth, combined with the human impact, will probably induce a climate cycle around 50-80 years from now that starts to significantly challenge the continued feasibility of modern civilization, barring any major adaptations/mitigations before then.

    And that is my long range global-scale forecast for today.

      1. Eh, I didn’t say “end”. But we’ll be challenged much more than we are now, and we are certainly already feeling some pressure. It’s intentionally a little vague because it’s not an exact science and I’m not the best qualified to give a more definitive outlook. But, I’m comfortable enough with the science to take a stab at it, and that is my prognosis as of now. A potential looming slowdown in warming, but a painful rise beyond then.

        1. I enjoy your comments, WxW. It is a loose science. And climate is cyclical. One thing we know for sure, and I’ve said it before, is we have without doubt impacted this earth, water and air with our pollution and out general treatment of it and its creatures.

  21. This Bruins team is impressive. Saw it in person last night. They have had their struggles a few times this evening on the island, but they are playing very well.

  22. Some of you guys have been brain washed by a bunch of academics who depend on grant money to make a living. The only way they get grant money is to toe that AGW line.
    I’m sure the usual suspects will be a long in a bit to tell me in full of shyte and the one shouldn’t question AWG.
    Fine. Have at it. I won’t reply.

    1. You’re allowed to express your opinion, but the end is a bit harsh. Remember where you are please.

        2. Usually when one says they’re going to say “harsh stuff” it’s usually hogwash and wouldn’t hold up to debate so they cut it off at the pass by saying they won’t reply. All that does is create an echo chamber for the “harsh realities” that are totally irrefutable in that persons mind.

  23. Hat trick for P.B. tonight. Just like last night, B’s gave up 1st goal then took the game over. Final last night was 4-1. Tonight they lead by the same score with 10 minutes to go. This keeps up and the team will go very far in the playoffs.

    2. Islanders are #1 in the league for goals allowed. The gave up their standard 5 tonight. Pathetic. It’s overshadowing the great season they have had offensively. Injuries have hurt them. That said, I agree, the bruins played well and really seem to be clicking right now.

      1. I agree about the Islanders, but the Bruins have been putting up 4 and 5 goals on a fairly routine basis of late.

  24. Was reading about the intense heat at the Australian open in Melbourne.

    2nd day today (their Friday), where the 2 Melbourne Obs are reporting 102F and 104F respectively.

    It was an interesting policy the tournament has. Play will be considered
    For stoppage if the air temp exceeds 40C or the wet bulb temp exceeds 35C. The players were hoping the officials would go more by common sense and less by these exact thresholds.

  25. Brainwashed by academics LOL, You mean people smart enough not to get trapped by the billionaires and the President goons. Environmentalists, Biologists, Ecologists, Chemists, Meteorologists, blah blah blah all have to apply for grants. Please show me how they can do it different? I would freaking LOVE republicans stay the hell out of our way. Scientists been taught throughout there college career to be neutral. What are you going to say about the medical field? Same exact ways. Republicans made this political. They have forced out scientists and replaced positions that should be filled by scientists with businessmen and Oil Goons. Scientists go through the scientific method. Look it up.
    Now I am going back to my evening, been a great day not letting someone like you to screw it up.

    Anyways, was a great day for strolling around 🙂

      1. You are young man…you will see one day that a majority opinion doesn’t make something right. A majority of Germans liked Hitler enough after his domestic polices to follow his leadership. By your reasoning you have no right to hate a president who won a majority of the electoral vote. If 51% of scientists suddenly agreed that climate change was indeed a hoax would you suddenly change your opinion?

    2. The same people who claimed back in the 90’s that the earth would be a desert wasteland by now…now that gloomy outlook has been pushed out another 50 years and will again. On this blog of all places we see how nailing a forecast even the day of isn’t perfect. The snow we got a few days ago was a potential monster storm last week. So how can anyone predict decades or centuries in advance?

      I also don’t get how the sun is never mentioned as a source of “climate change.” Seems pretty obvious but everyone is focused on coal and cars. We’ve been on this planet a fraction of a second in the earths timeline. It’s impossible we have done the damage the experts claim (and I say experts in air quotes). You scientists know the earth has been a lot warmer in the past and a lot colder and it cycles…and news flash…the cycle will go on with or without us. One day there will be another ice age and many wont live and I bet you will be wishing for some of that global warming then.

      Of course in the grand scheme it’s all going to end when the sun burns out anyway. Maybe you can file a lawsuit against the sun for robbing you of a rosy future. You can only be in control when you realize you don’t have any.

      For the record I have been all over this planet in service to my country and have lived in many places. I do not speak out of ignorance. Once you see how 9/10ths of the world lives it’s looney tunes that people here are on a mission to go back into caves and use candles.

      1. …and for anyone who truly care so much please note that every time you post online you are generating a carbon emission in a datacenter somewhere. You can write letters but that will require the death of trees…could use messenger birds but that cruelty to animals. There is oral communication but we emit carbon dioxide…what a pickle 🙂

        1. I love this WW. Brilliant.

          I hate how this always gets dragged into political lines too. Drives me nuts. It doesn’t need to complicated. And the arrogance of it all makes me spit nails. To think we can fine tune our climate is maddening to me. I have multiple degrees in business but I hope I’m qualified to say that the climate will in fact change and many times back and forth over eons including someday when our atmosphere will be stripped away completely.

          In the meantime…..

          The climate will do what it does. This is about pollution in all of its forms. And I’m on board with curbing it as much as anyone. Not by FIAT, but by profit incentive without crippling our competitiveness because I need my job to pay for four children who are blessed to have been born in this wonderful country and who will hopefully enjoy a standard of living and life expectancy even better than mine. And it takes growth of economic systems to do that. If that makes me selfish, greedy or whatever “capitalist” monster some may portray that to be, then we have zero common ground.

  26. Blackstone, I don’t believe any of us are brainwashed. We’re all capable of independent thinking. Global warming is a complicated topic. No-one has a definitive answer. I agree with you that some research funding is political. [I was an academic and left academia because I had to toe the pharmaceutical industry line in order to get funding for my research.] But, by no means is all funding political. And, I have faith in science and scientists to pursue the truth independent of politics.

    As for the challenges that lie ahead, I concur with WxW that we’re faced with a difficult and highly uncertain future. Resources are scarce, the natural world around us is vulnerable. Without wanting to strike an alarmist tone I believe it’s vital that we as citizens of this planet are made aware of the potential and real negative consequences of mankind’s footprint. Status quo or regressive environmental policies are problematic in my view because they presume human impact is invariably positive. While it’s positive in many ways, it can also be deleterious in others. Consider industrialization in the 19th century. On the whole, a very positive development. Yet, had we maintained early 19th century policies and regulations (or lack thereof) we would have perpetuated horrific working conditions for the majority of people and a total disregard for the environment. Thankfully, changes in policies did occur, and they were based on a broad consensus with conservatives emphasizing land and waterway preservation while progressives sought improvements in labor conditions. Fast forward to 2018, I hope we can achieve a similar consensus when it comes to balancing economic growth and environmental concerns. But, I’m skeptical given the state of both the Republican and Democratic Parties.

    1. I don’t necessarily agree with you but I do respect your rational take on this subject. Well put.

  27. Being a zealot, whether for or against a subject, usually does not end well. While it can be painful, listening to someone who disagrees with you and trying to understand their perspective can go a long way.
    People nowadays are too certain in the correctness of their opinions that everyone ends up talking past each other. Nothing gets accomplished by that (as we seem to see everyday in DC).

    It is easy to get angry. It’s harder to work together cooperatively.

    1. One side always seems to be willing to work with the other, yet the other side, never does.
      We listen, we as scientists go and test it yet because its not what these clowns want, they cherry pick parts. They say, the grants we get has a liberal bias, blah blah blah. Sooner or later, you have to stop giving a rats ta toot about their opinions that are based on NOTHING but what they think is right, what they are feed by the rich, and what is good for them at the now.
      NEWS flash, this world is becoming crap. We are experiencing the start of the six mass extinction. We are in the Anthropocene. If you don’t know what that is, look it up. This is what I went to school for. Understanding how Anthropological stress effect the Ecosystems. How we can fix it, how we can conserve and preserve. What we can do to stop it. The economy we have in capitalism is great for continuous growth, but continue growth means we need endless supply and demand. Its just not sustainable. Anyone realize how things are not meant to last more than two freaking years. You start having car trouble rather soon. My grandfather tested cars for the Herald news paper. My Dad was that cool kid with the new cars at high school testing them out and giving my grandfather his opinion. My dad had a car that lasted 23 years. It was a Honda, My dad says its lucky to have 6 years now a days before you have an issue. Jeez I wonder why that is and its not do to the regulations. I know people that work at car shops fixing them.

    2. Unfortunately, the discussion started with an ad hominem. I find that not only negates the entire comment, but it sets the tone. It turned to a lecture on age being right. More personal attacks. Well, then as one of the older individuals here, I’d say that is clearly not always true.

      It is incredibly sad, as you say, that this runs along political lines. I will never understand how love of the earth we have been entrusted to care for has become political. Both sides are at fault. One side refuses to accept the tremendous damage we are doing. Whether the change is cyclical can be taken out of the conversation if we simply start undoing the harm we have done.

      Your last sentence is exceptional. Rather than taunt and discount, we need to listen. Better than that, we need to hear.

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