Tuesday Forecast

205 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Disturbance crosses the region this morning from west to east with a touch of very light snow possible in a few locations. A stronger storm will rocket east northeastward through the region Wednesday, including a rain/sleet/snow line that we have been discussing. Looks like it starts as snow just about everywhere by late morning and midday except maybe mix/rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, then a line of sleet to rain progresses north northwestward from the South Coast into the I-95 belt and possibly a bit beyond at some point before the entire thing comes to an end from west to east in the evening. When it is snowing, it may come down at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour for a while, making travel very hazardous. Fair and cold weather is back for Thursday and another disturbance brings a risk of a touch of light snow later Friday and Saturday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with patchy very light snow this morning. Clearing this afternoon. Highs 32-38. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 22-28. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow (mix South Coast) arriving southwest to northeast late morning and midday then becoming heavy at times with a changeover line from sleet to rain progressing north northwestward into the I-95 belt during the course of the day. Highs 28-35 except 35-42 South Coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts along the coast, and may become variable late in the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Snow northwest, mix/rain elsewhere, ending west to east evening. Snow/sleet accumulation for the event: coating to 2 inches Plymouth to New Bedford southeastward, 2-4 inches remainder of southeastern MA, most of RI, up to the immediate Boston area, 4-8 inches basically from NH Seacoast and Cape Ann southwestward down the I-495 belt through south central MA and the northwestern corner of RI, and 8-12 inches north central MA through southwestern and south central NH. Clearing overnight. Lows 22-28. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Variably to mostly cloudy with a risk of a little light snow at times. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Next storm system likely to track northwest of the region with a rain threat early in the period then some additional unsettled weather at times with some rain/snow/mix possible off and on during the balance of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
A couple minor precipitation threats and a bit colder during this period.

205 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  8. Thanks, TK…
    Feel better soon!

    The first flakes of snow were just starting 40 years ago today at this hour. By 11 am, there was a trace. 6.5″ by 5 pm. 17″ by midnight.

    1. I remember waking up the following morning and looking out. It took my breath away. I just put on a jacket and boots and went out to walk around. It was that hard to comprehend that so much snow had fallen. Wonderful memories mixed with sadness.

  10. Here in Northern CT/Springfield area my driveway went from being clear at 8:45 to snow covered at 9am. Snow on the street, but not covering the grass…yet.

    1. Hello there. Don’t recognize that handle.
      Are you new or changed your handle?

      IF new WELCOME. If not new and I never welcomed you, please accept
      a warm late WELCOME. And If I did and forget, then please forgive my senior moment. 😀

  11. So today is the anniversary of the Blizzard of 78? I CAN’T BELIEVE
    it was 40 years ago. I know it is cliche, but it truly does seem like yesterday to me.

    I have many memories. Likely the most enjoyable snow storm of my lifetime.
    Magnificent wonder.

    I remember walking down to Dunkin Donuts at about 10 PM that first night.
    I watched a huge maple tree nearly bend over sideways in the wind. I surely
    thought it was coming down, but nope it was a very resilient tree and it
    withstood the barrage.

    Blinding snow coming down sideways. One could almost watch it accumulating
    right in front of your nose. At Dunkins only plow drivers were there grabbing
    coffee. Not just regular plows, but these enormous construction type earth moving
    Mega Trucks with huge plows. That was most noticeable to me.

    Our street was NEVER plowed by the city. It was/is a dead end street with 8
    houses on it. Every single resident was out shoveling until we had the whole damn street shoveled off. And the piles. Ouch that caused a lot of aches and pains.

    Although I didn’t work the next day, I did work the rest of the week despite the ban.
    I took the T. I was working at an extension office on Exeter street. Then I had to
    go over to the main office in Cambridge not far from the Lechmere stop on the Green line. When I got off at Lechmere and started walking to the office, I was literally
    walking on top of parked cars. Yes the snow and banks was that deep. NEVER have I seen anything like it since then. NEVER!!!

  14. Vicki, glad you are feeling better. I have had similar bugs where I would lose my hearing, too. Also, some years ago, I lost my taste for 2 wks. at the end of a bad cold. That was awful. When I regained my taste while eating an apple, it was the best apple I had ever tasted! 🙂

    1. Thank you, rainshine. I lost taste only a bit but it was bad enough. I cannot imagine two weeks. Both grandsons have to often repeat what they have said since I cannot hear them and have started to laugh and call me old lady 🙂

  16. Mom and I (“Hi, Mom!”) had a wonderful day last Saturday at the Mansfield (MA) Public Library. More than 100 people attended the 40th anniversary retrospective of the Blizzard. Lots of photos in a PowerPoint presentation. Most of the photos came from the local newspapers (Mansfield and Attleboro). The last half-hour were people’s stories and memories from the storm. It was a great time, one of the best of the winter!

  17. Thanks TK. Feel better!

    I am in general agreement with TK’s numbers and certainly the overall idea for tomorrow. Messy storm with most snow to the north. I think 2-4″ for Boston is reasonable. Biggest impact will be tomorrow afternoon’s commute.

    We’re set for a solid 10-12″ here in Plymouth, NH. Will be one of our best storms of this season, a nice addition to a rather lackluster snow pack for this time of year up here.

  20. Latest 9Z SREF Plumes: 4.42 inches for Boston.

    I think that is high, but we shall see.

    GFS is about to crank.

    2. I think that’s to high in my opinion . Timing & intensity will be the key as last I checked it was a fast mover bringing the Warner air after a brief burst of snow ( few hours).

  23. Snowing pretty good here now. Vis in the neighborhood of 1-1.25 miles or so.

    HOWEVER, the sun’s disk is visible through the clouds. 😀 I guess this snow
    means business. NOT!

  25. JPD – I loved reading your memories of the blizzard. I agree that it truly does seem like yesterday and often I wish it were. Other storms have left wonderful memories, but to me, none will ever top 78.

    I am amazed the T was working. Odd that it struggles now and not then.

    1. It was working and working quite well. There were not very many riders.

      I wish I had a camera with me back then because when I went
      to the office at Exeter Street, looking up and down Boylston Street
      was the most eerie feeling/sights I have ever experienced. People
      walking down the middle of Boylston Street. Hari Krishna folks gathering
      on the street. Just serene.

      1. It was like a different world. People talking to people they didn’t know, sharing stories, passing on what stores were open and what they had for supplies. Storms always bring out the best in folks. I think that is a good part of my love for them.

        Our kids got a taste of it when the governor closed the roads a few storms back.

        When Mac lived in Rome, they closed streets to traffic every Sunday. He lived outside of the city, but they would bike into the heart of Rome every weekend. He always thought we should close all roads here (everywhere) maybe once a month. I sure would support that.

  26. Been snowing lightly but steadily for about an hour in Sutton. Even some of the main roads have a very light coating. Looks awesome!!

  29. I wanted to share all my memories of the blizzard of 78 so here they are:

    …

    Oh yeah I was born in 1980.

        1. I’d wager that he calls it quits. My wife is convinced of that and she is pretty tuned into these things.

          She speculates that after that last hit, his family sat him down and read him the riot act. Read that as IF he keeps playing he is SURE to get Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE) . His family is deeply involved with the Gronk and he may not be the brightest bulb, but he cares about his family and listens to them.

          I think you can count on Gronk calling it quits.

          With the money he has and he has his TV work he doesn’t need to keep playing football and risk his life.

          Just my wife’s and my opinion. That is all. Others may draw different conclusions. Oh btw we watched his
          facial expressions while being interviewed. That dude
          is gone.

          1. As always, your wife and I agree. I absolutely agree with your/your wife’s assessment.

            I am particularly sensitive to the CTE. As I think you know, my dad’s brother was being scouted by the NFL. He suddenly snapped. This would have been back in the 1930s? He was an older brother so I’m not sure of age. But he spent the remainder of his life institutionalized. He was 21 and had been a promising young star. Even back then, they felt it was from blows to the head.

            1. Wow! I am so sorry to hear that.
              I did not know. Very sad.

              Remember what we all used to call
              boxers as they got along in their careers?

              “Punch Drunk”

              Just a term for what is known to be CTE.

      1. Sun is out on Boylston and last of the flakes are flying.

        Tomorrow seems like the jury is still out on amounts and maybe even timing.

  33. Any idea what time the snow starts and ends tomorrow? I was going to work from home tomorrow but i had a meeting scheduled I HAVE to come in for.
    Ugh. Idiots.

      1. Thanks, TK. Looks as if school will be in session. Not sure how the ride home will be, however. I think I’ll work from home too 😉

  37. All models are hinting at ice issues from Southwest mass to Central mass and interior NE mass. showing .10 to as much as .3 of an inch of Ice accretion. I think we will all hope the precipitation does not change to rain and stays as snow.

  38. Patricia was gone and I feel his head was already at detroit
    McDaniels: mix feelings about him leaving, especially since it seems like he was the only coach out there wanting to win. I envisioned a possible out come that would of been good. ( Patriots draft a QB in the off season, Brady plays for 3 more years while Mcdaniels and brady groom the qb, then Bill retires from coaching and is the GM, then Mcdaniels becomes HC and brady OC and the new QB learns from the great.

    1. Based on correspondence I received, NWS conducted the test using the proper protocols, and the test message was not broadcast publicly. However, somehow several news and weather services did get it and sent it out, even though it was clearly marked test. Both MEMA and NWS Gray/Taunton started to get calls asking about it.

  40. Looking over the 12Z info (still waiting on Euro)
    looks like only about 2 inches for Boston then sleet and then rain.

    We shall see.

  41. My memory of the Blizzard of 78;

    I was in 4th grade and finally earned my chance at being the safety monitor which helped our crossing guard make sure kids arrived and departed safely. It was a two-week stint and once we were dismissed that day we didn’t return for over two weeks. I was so disappointed! Thankfully they did give me another shot when we returned to school.

    We lived on a main road in Abington across from a convenience store. We watched people come from all over pulling their kids in sleds in the middle of the street to get to the store to get staples. While I was young, I remember how friendly everyone was and how we all helped each other out. The snow tunnels we made in the snow banks were just awesome. Great memories for sure!

  42. Re: McDaniels.

    They’ll promote Chad O’Shea to OC. Might not give him the titile right away, but he’ll call the plays. He called games or parts of games in the pre season. He knows the offense as well as Brady and JM.

        1. I heard he ate a few Tide pods then went streaking through the Mall of America yelling let’s go Pats, set a couple cars on fire, and ended by calling Belichick a bad name…

  45. two memories from 78
    I was 9 and I remember having to crawl out a window to get outside to play. The snow drifted in front of the entry doors and we couldnt open them

    My father operated a large front end loader and was clearing a large supermarket parking lot after the storm and he actually scooped up a buried volkswagon bug and didnt realize it until he dumped the bucket.
    He also was one of the guys who helped clear 128(I-95).

    2. What a great story. I can’t believe he scooped up a bug. Mac drove a bug back then and it was buried so perhaps I should not be surprised.

    1. Probably change again but I’ve been saying since yesterday Boston’s numbers are way to high.

  47. It’s hard to believe that Boston won’t see at least a couple of inches up front before it changes over. Dew Points are in the upper teens to low 20’s currently which when the precip starts falling should at least initially drop the temps. Models tend to be a bit overly aggressive with the temps in these situations.

    1. Not worried about surface temperatures. It’s the temperature above that
      warms rather rapidly. I am not saying it won’t be messy as there may be
      a decent period of sleet, just not any kind of significant or even decent
      accumulation in the City.

      1. Fair Point, these things are really hard to predict. I wish I had a better understanding at the dynamics above, because I really don’t have any idea how fast the upper columns would warm based on low position, speed, etc.

        1. Typically, if the system passes to our North and/or West
          you can almost be assured the upper levels will warm.
          Depends upon how much Gulf air is being transported
          into the system.

          In this case, plenty.

  48. My memories…. Like Sue above, I remember just huge piles of snow at the top of driveway that we tunneled out into big igloo like forts… I also remember my mother yelling at us to be extra careful because if a plow eventually came to try to expand the street we would get chopped in half! I remember the streets being so narrow as it just wasn’t possible for the plows to get the snow to go any further up the banks.

    My father worked for the phone company and was considered “essential personnel”, so I remember him heading off in our Jeep Wagoneer that we had at the time, on his way from our house in Melrose to the Malden office to help keep things running. This also meant we were able to get out to the store for groceries, which was a help in the neighborhood and it was fun to be out and about, when almost no one else was!

    Other than that, I just remember that it seemed like it snowed for days and also the lengthy amount of time off from school…

  49. Additional on the Blizzard.

    We had a swing set in the back yard for our then 6 year old daughter.

    These swing sets are what? at least 6 feet high from ground to top bar. Perhaps even a tad higher as I am nearly 6’2″ and could walk underneath it.

    Anyway, the point I was making is that there was only about 6 inches from the bottom
    of the top bar to the surface of the snow. Obviously “some” of this was blow off
    from the roof, but none-the-less it was a shit load of snow.

    There was so much I was able to construct a sledding course from above the railing
    of the side porch down and around the corner to beyond the swing set to the back stairs. The neighborhood children would line up with their saucer sleds for lack of a better term. They had an absolute blast using that for weeks.

  50. In looking over the Euro, it has the 850 mb temperatures warming faster than
    the 925mb temperatures. That would allow for the period of sleet.
    Not sure how long sleet will last. I suspect at least an hour or 2, perhaps a little
    longer.

      1. who knows, something unexpected can always happen, its the weather 😛 We might be able to predict it, but mother nature can laugh and say gotcha.

  52. Looking at the NAM and GFS, 850MB temps looks to go above freezing between
    1PM and 2PM. That does NOT allow much time for snow to accumulate.

  53. https://merrimackvalleyweather.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/untitled1.png
    Ice concern within the red lines,
    Snowfall expect the lower ends of the totals unless your in Northern Mass and do not change over.
    Road conditions becomes cruddy rather quick in the afternoon, I think interior locations do not fully change over to plain rain.

    PS, I think most of the snow in southeast mass will be done within hours with extremely heavy rates including boston before change over.

  54. If I understand what happened with the “tsunami warning” correctly, the NWS intended to issue a routine tsunami warning test this morning. Part of the problem seems to lie with Accuweather. Because of a coding error by the NWS, the message was “coded” as a real warning, and Accuweather’s software interpreted it as such, and sent notifications out to those with the app. Their software is supposedly also designed to scan the contents of the message to verify the coding. The actual message was clearly a test, but that didn’t prevent the warning from going out. So there seems to be blame in multiple places. For their part, Accuweather issued a rather scathing rebuke of the NWS, placing the blame on them.

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/press/72602282

      1. It’s an interesting case. If the NWS messed up the coding, they have to own that. But clearly there’s a shortcoming in Accuweather’s system as well.

        More importantly, the language used by Accuweather is unhelpful. They’ve frequently projected a stand-offish image over the years. We need partnerships between private and public industries, not hostility.

        Barry Myers, who made that quote from a few years ago, will soon be the NOAA Administrator, as he was nominated for the post months ago by Pres. Trump. If it were solely up to him, NOAA probably would not exist, or would at least be heavily restricted, particularly the NWS.

        1. Just makes me shake my head and sigh. Not sure where we are headed, but it isn’t anyplace good.

          Thank you again, WxW.

  55. Mac and I were stuck in his Medford apartment….which is not new news. We played Mastermind and cribbage a good portion of the week. Other than shoveling his car, we didn’t have to do anything else. The car was hard enough. And I recall his spot was taken once we were able to get out and about. My brother, Chris, was stuck at my parents’ in Belmont. He had just purchased a house in Franklin. My dad and other Belmont PD friends/coworkers managed to get him permission from each town to be on the road to get to Franklin to clear his house.

    Mac and I got bored enough to walk from Medford to Belmont to say a quick hi to my parents and then walk back. I often wonder what possessed us to do this and am certain it was one of those times Mac just smiled and nodded when I came up with the idea. We went through Arlington and on down Pleasant Street to Belmont. We were far from the only ones out exploring and everyone seemed to have a smile.

    Little did we all know that a storm that seemed devastating would turn out to hold wonderful memories for so many. I know that is not true along the coast. We watched the rescues and devastation in the coastal areas with great sadness.

  56. I may be off base (will double check in a few) but I “think” the 18Z NAM has
    snuck just a little more South than the 12z run. Looks like 3 inches for Boston now.
    Hmmm What did you guys say above??????

    I will do some kuchera compares in a few.

    1. NAH, it just looked like it on the instant Weather maps.
      Looking at Pivotal Weather, I couldn’t tell the difference between
      the 12Z run and the 18Z run. I wonder if they even ran the 18Z? 😀 😀 😀

  57. Was just reading that Gronk had guns and safes stolen from his house. Yikes. I have no idea where he lives, not that it matters.

  58. Ok, here is the latest 3KM NAM. This looks to be the most decent modeling of the upcoming event.

    Here is the precip type at 1PM tomorrow:

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018020618/024/refcmp_ptype.us_ne.png

    Precip type at 4PM

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018020618/027/refcmp_ptype.us_ne.png

    A couple of observations:

    1. Snow in Boston will emcompass about a 4 hour window or so, 10AM to about 2PM
    2. There will be considerable sleet and ice inland, but NOT along the coast.

    Kucher snow

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018020618/039/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Notice the drop off in snow from previous runs due to the warm air aloft
    and sleet/frzing rain.

    Also shows “about” 2 inches of snow/sleet for Boston and even only 3-4 inches
    way out in Worcester.

    This storm will be a disappointment for SNE snow lovers, UNLESS there is a miracle
    shift in the track to the S&E.

    Of course there is always the chance that low level COLD will hold longer than
    modeled and we could have a longer messy period of sleet, but not snow.

    Just some rambling from Grumpy old man. 😀

    1. I like your ramblings. But I do not like ice. Anything else is welcome. I’m thinking we will have 2-3 inches here. The problem is that kids will get to school and there may be a problem with the return trip.

        1. Yes indeed it does. Doesn’t mean that will happen, just
          that is what is being modeled by the 3KM NAM.

  61. Geez, what’s with the SREF. SREF ensemble mean snow for Boston is:

    4.59 inches

    What is it seeing that no other model is?????

  64. Quick story from the Netherlands. As you all know it can be very foggy there – dew points and temperature often align. In winter this can mean that overnight freezing fog will produce a thin layer of ice on the surface of cars (right now it’s 37F for a max and 28F for a min). So, I remember in the early 90s having to scrape my car’s windshield and windows before heading to work. Well, legislators have now instituted a law which levies fines of 230 euro (about $280) for anyone who hasn’t scraped of ALL the ice from their windshield and windows. And knowing the Dutch they mean ALL ice must be removed. And yes this is enforced, just like the ban on cellphone use of any kind (250 euro fine, no exceptions, for anyone caught using a cellphone to call or text unless you have a hands-free device).

    1. Thank you, Joshua. Now if we could only do the same. Sad that we need to legislate, but folks won’t do as they are supposed to without it……hence regulations.

      1. Dutch tend to be an obedient nation. Not always, but there is generally a respect for authority. It’s hard to describe, because it’s not subservience. It’s just that if rules and regulations make sense and improve public and individual safety they’re generally followed. Drinking and driving, for example, is virtually unheard of in Holland. They definitely drink – probably more than we do. But, drinking and driving is considered a no-no, not just because of the law but also from a social custom perspective – ie, `it’s not done.’ Without having an official policy of designated driver I remember there always being a designated driver who didn’t touch alcohol when I went out with friends (if I wasn’t using public transportation or a bicycle).

  65. After a quick review of things I’m leaving the forecast generally untouched with a slight leaning toward the lower side of the ranges. If I had to guess Logan, I’ll say a touch over 2 inches, with about 3 in the city sections just to the west up through my area with a build-up just north and west of that.

  66. As of now, BPS have no intention of cancelling classes tomorrow!

    Worcester canceled tomorrow…certainly no surprise there. 😉

      1. I would assume and hope Sutton does the same Vicki. Your area may never change to plain rain.

        Good move for Boston staying open since when kids get out it should be raining only.

        1. I’m hoping so also. My daughter is questioning sending her son even if early dismissal. He has an hour bus ride. And taking the two younger ones out to pick him up might be foolish. The problem is he absolutely loves school and hates to have it cancelled or miss it.

          1. I’m probably going to keep Sammy home. I worry as much if not more about other drivers and although they haven’t cancelled Concord yet (he goes to school at NBS in Concord) no doubt they’ll cancel it at the height of the storm.

  69. I think tomorrow’s forecast is on track. In these situations I’m often tempted to go higher on snowfall for areas that will start as snow and change over. Sometimes that initial thump really hits hard. The Boston area looks to be part of that battle zone tomorrow. At this point though, I’m not seeing any glaring signs that the 6”+ totals drop much further south than currently forecast. Will keep watching of course. I’ll say 3.5” for Boston Logan, with the hope that they measure before it’s washed away 🙂

    1. Thank you, WxW. Always enjoy your input. We do have some amazing younger generation (if you’ll pardon me since anyone under 40 is young to me) on this blog.

    2. Good.

      Fire bellichick for throwing the Super Bowl. Let mcdaniels and Brady take it from here and see what they can do. Bellichick is not getting that locker room back and probably kraft too. Rip the bandaid off and trade him or fire him. I have been a huge BB defender. Not anymore. I don’t trust him with that franchise anymore.

  72. This is just been one breaking story after the other since 5 with teammates taking to social media backing Butlers tweet today

  73. Curious what the schools with early release are thinking. To me the height of the snow is 10-3, bad move to do early release. We haven’t used many snow days so I think you either stick it out or cxl all together.

    1. I wondered the same thing and then thought I must be missing something. Daughter, like MamaMia, would have kept her son home.

      Or are the town with early release in more snow and not ice area?

    3. Agreed Hadi ! In the corporate world, during big snows, they’d say we are closing at 3. And I’d look out the window at 8 inches of new snow and snowing like crazy and think, I’d rather stay here til it slows down at 6pm …..

  74. Still banking on the storm holding the cold longer. Watching tack it’s further south than modeled so far.

    1. I told my nine year old granddaughter to watch for your posts. I had to explain your name 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Thank you. These are awesome.

  76. I’m so happy we are getting largely spared down here.

    I’m up for another big snowfall, just hope it happens during February break.

  79. Took at look at the 0z NAM runs (as well as the earlier WRF run) and both models take the low inland right over BDL. Snow starts roughly 10AM in the CT River Valley and near noon in Boston. It looks like we have a solid 3-4 hour window in most places to accumulate snow before the changeover, then a couple hours of sleet/mix before the change to rain. These models both have the mix/rain line getting all the way up to Concord, NH. Just don’t see many places in CT/RI/eastern MA being able to squeeze more than 2-4″ out of this system. Just don’t have a long enough window to accumulate.

    Took a look at the latest 01z HRRR run as well and it looks colder, perhaps holding onto the snow a bit longer but accumulations still look fairly paltry before the changeover.

  80. There are some indications that this may actually under-produce in terms of snow along and south of the Pike. Low track appears to be edging north based on the HRRR and 0z NAM guidance. Not only does this bring the warm air in a little quicker, but it causes the heavier part of the initial wave of precip to ride more north of SNE, cutting into QPF during the window where it’s cold enough for snow. Something to watch for on the hi-res guidance.

    Central New England will do very well with this. I’m expecting 12″+ here in Plymouth, NH. NWS has us around 10″, but I think they’re a little conservative given the ratios we should see.

    1. Meanwhile the site I referred to above is telling his readers that the storm is south of where it was modeled an is going to “go big” for just about everyone including most of the coast.

      That said, this situation often has the NAM bringing the warm air in a couple hours too quickly, but it’s not going to do anything else to the situation he’s suggesting.

      1. Good thing all those sites are run by responsible mets 😉

        Agree about the NAM though, I think the 2-4″ range for Boston is still reasonable, no reason to get too hung up on all the little wobbles.

        1. In order to get there though it has to snow pretty heavily. Need the intensity. If it comes in less intense there, forget it.

  84. Good morning. Another putrid weather day in SNE if you like snow. In face PATHETIC!!!

    Base on what I am seeing, everything is too far West. I think Logan will struggle
    to make 1 stinken inch. It will only snow from about Noon to 3 and the intensity
    just doesn’t appear to be there to deliver the 3-4 inches. It would have to come down at 1 inch plus per hour to do it, and right now I don’t see that. The heavier precip appears to come after the changeover.

    HRRR models 925 and 850 temps to go above freezing right around 3PM in Boston.
    Only the ever so briefest period of sleet in boston.

    a full fledged CRAPORAMA!!!!!

    nws radar mosaic

    https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

    HRRR preip typr loop

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/09Z-20180207_HRRRNE_prec_ptype-0-18-10-100.gif

  87. I wish Kraft would fire Bill Belichick right now.

    My understanding is McDaniels will be coach when Bill leaves, but when is that? I’d sooner now rather than later.

    I have had enough of him. Yes he is brilliant, but enough already of his antics.

  88. As I expected our school is doing an early dismissal – pretty much at the worst possible time. We are going to pass on the 2-2.5 hours of class today thanks!

  89. This will be an interesting lesson in models or modelology as TK calls it vs. meteorology. How long does the cold hang on at all levels and how much snow can we sneak in before the changeovers? It was 18 when I left the house this morning and it felt like snow, I’m feeling pretty good about TKs 2-4 for Boston, all predicated on the idea that models stink at timing warm air intrusions.

  90. This won’t effect the column above, but at the surface, the dewpoints are quite low. Depending on how fast they rise before precip sets in, the potential for the surface temp to drop at precip onset is there.

    This isn’t the deepest surface low you will ever see. So, it makes sense what we have been hearing that a fair distance inland (25+ miles), its going to be tough to get that surface temp above 32F through most, if not all, of the event.

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