Tuesday Forecast

86 Comments

8:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
High pressure moves overhead today, with fair and seasonably chilly weather, then offshore Wednesday. A midweek warmup will start with dry weather on Wednesday but then a batch of wet weather will come through early Thursday with a warm front. A cold front will follow this on Friday with additional unsettled weather. The warm-up peaks Thursday and ends Friday. Saturday’s weather will resemble today’s as a cold high pressure area from Canada moves in.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon then increasing clouds late. Highs 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming light variable.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind light variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs from the 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely overnight. Lows 38-45 early then slowly rising. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely morning. Partly cloudy and windy afternoon. Temperatures fall through the 40s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
Large scale pattern: Stronger high pressure ridge US Southeast, cold air in Canada. Temperatures which start chilly at the very start of the period then moderate and end up above normal, but how far above normal is the question. The other question is, do we end the cold shot with a period of accumulating snow in the early hours of Sunday February 18? There is enough evidence on fairly reliable guidance to make me say we need to closely watch this possibility. Weather in the February 20-22 period can range from fair and very mild to overcast and damp. Will just have to see where the boundary ends up and fine-tune going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
For this period not expecting any major changes, so the confidence level for any strong trend is not high at this time. Leaning mild, and completely unsure of storminess. A puzzle yet to solve.

86 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. Thanks!!

      Last night was the first night in a while the cough didn’t keep me up more than it should have. Another notch of improvement. Energy level is coming up.

      Another thing, heart has been quiet for days now. Other than a few minor (expected) flutters, I have had nothing by normal rhythm.

      1. I would think your heart remaining quiet through all of this is a really great sign.

        I slept, with a few exceptions, for the first time in weeks. I’m hoping the breathing isn’t an off thing and that it continues to work.

  8. On my way into work this morning there was a beautiful crescent moon setting in the eastern sky just prior to sunrise.

      1. My youngest showed me a photo of this morning’s crescent moon. It was just lovely. As most know, we always think of my mom who called the crescent moon God’s fingernail.

          1. You’re very welcome. It is a nice memory.

            Five of my grandchildren were born under a crescent moon so I knew my mom (who adored children) was watching down. The sixth was my youngest’s second. No crescent moon in the sky, but it turned out the delivery nurse had the same small crescent moon tattoo that my youngest has for my mom. Can’t make this stuff up 🙂

  9. Vicki, TK, Mrs. OS, and others suffering from this winter’s viruses, I hope you all get better soon.

    Beautiful `late’ winter day. I could have 365 of these. Well, maybe not. That would get boring after a while.

    I see that the Netherlands is number 2 on the medals list. Quite an accomplishment for a small country, given that they only really compete in one sport. They do dominate in that one sport – speed skating.

    Call me crazy but I think the Bruins have the best shot at a title of all 4 teams this year. I’ve never been a believer in the Celtics this year. I think they’ve run out of gas, can’t play transition basketball, and only have one true scorer. Without Hayward they’re cooked, maybe even as early as the 2nd round. The Patriots are still good, but I do think their best days are behind them. The Sox will have to compete against a mighty Yankees ballclub as well as the Indians and Astros. And that’s just to make it to the WS. They’ve got little hope this year. But, the Bruins have a winning combination of goaltending, scoring ability, quickness, and a fairly solid defensive unit. I like their coach, too. He’s letting them play, so to speak, and that bodes well.

    1. Thank you, Joshua. On the scale of things, I figure this is a speed bump and it too shall pass. And it is a glorious day! I just took trash out and decided to sit for a bit and just listen and enjoy.

    2. I agree with you Joshua on our sports teams. The Bruins have the best shot of at least going deep into the postseason. As for the Celtics, watch out next season with Hayward hopefully in the mix. A championship is very much on the table.

    1. I have already called Spring in full swing. No snow is allowed other than broom brushers. You take your maps and pin them under a sign that says “no chance.” Hahaha

  14. Ryan Hanrahan’s take on the weekend snow threat:

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/963452187023171584/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fryanhanrahan%2Fstatus%2F963452187023171584

    He also said this:

    “Yeah seems like a low probability event… the Euro Ensembles are all over the place but 20% of the members are pretty juicy with advisory snows.
    The GEFS has a similar spread with about 20% of the members with advisory snows.
    Worth watching”

  15. 12z GEFS has a wintery look middle of next week with ice/snow potential for interior SNE and central/northern New England.

    Far cry from the Euro’s 60-70 degree torch Tuesday and Wednesday.

    We’re going to be right near that boundary next week. A subtle shift in the jetstream could be the difference between 70 degrees and an ice storm. Tough extended forecast!

  16. ALERT!! ALERT!!! ALERT!!!

    12z Euro caves to the CMC and ICON models and now has an all-out SNOWSTORM for SNE on Sunday with widespread 6-10″!

      1. Glad you are confident in saying that. As of 12z runs today, every major model has at least some snow on Sunday except the UKMET (which had the snowstorm on the 0z run).

        Should have better sampling for the models starting tomorrow but the threat of something Sunday is certainly legit.

  20. 12z Euro maintains the torch theme next week with highs in the 60’s Tuesday through Thursday, and a few spot 70 degree readings possible. From shovels to shorts in a few days if it is correct.

  21. The spread among ensembles of the ECMWF alone gives you the idea of how iffy the pattern is and how easily things can come together to deliver a widespread snow event. Forecasts made now are highly volatile. That is why I basically said “I don’t know what’s going to happen” on my 6-10 today.

    Meteorology is not always about knowing. It’s just as much about knowing when you don’t know. And I don’t know right now.

      1. Well I have a clue, but I can see this going one of 2 or 3 different ways and I don’t have a strong feel for either at the moment. I have been keeping an eye on the Presidents Day Weekend as a “watcher for snow threat” for a while though confidence in this had dropped off recently, although not to zero. I saw it on enough models, even “sucky” models, to not dismiss it. Even poorly performing models overall can get certain set-ups correct.

  22. TK Vicki Mrs. OS hope you are all feeling better.
    I will feel bad if I am miss a snow event this coming weekend since I will be in Florida. Hopefully if it is going to snow it will be a weekend event and not Monday when I am flying back.

    1. Thank you and I will try to hold anything off until you return. Meanwhile, I hope you have a great vacation!!!

  23. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    A snow nuke on the Euro for the weekend. Considering 12 hours ago it was a whiff underneath us i wouldn’t lock in any solution.

  24. Acute bronchitis. She says viral. May be right although I have a history of needing one more round of antibiotics than anticipated so we shall see.

    FWIW I have served it an eviction notice 😉

  27. Squirrels are busy repairing their tree nests. I saw them yesterday and today. This is a sign of spring. Their mating season is approaching.

    1. I HATE SQUIRRELS!!!!!!!

      I don’t generally don’t want to harm any animals, but Squirrels, Mice and Rats
      Are on my SHIT LIST.

  28. Will it Snow Sunday OR will it not? That is the question.

    I find it most interesting that the Euro has it now after being advertised by
    the lowly CMC and ICON. 😀 😀 😀

    3. This is how he should be reacting….

      JimmyJames says:
      February 13, 2018 at 3:04 PM
      Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
      A snow nuke on the Euro for the weekend. Considering 12 hours ago it was a whiff underneath us I wouldn’t lock in any solution.

      1. And just 24 hours ago, JR was all set to put Logan’s 2.2″ to date for the month in the books. He did also caution about March though. 😉

  31. The potential weekend system is a true “Goldilocks” storm. Everything has to be just right to give a plowable snow. Possible? Yes. Probable? No. There are a number of ways it could “go wrong”, and while I can’t say for sure what the problem will be, the odds are against a significant snow event.

    If it does verify like the Euro/CMC show (I give that about a 1 in 5 shot), it would be a great example of how you can get snow even in an unfavorable pattern.

  32. So yesterday at this time, 2 out of over a half dozen medium range models had a snow event for Saturday night into Sunday. Now they all do. This period of time between February 16-19 has had me concerned to some degree for days now.

    That said, pieces are far away. Not even close to confident something happens yet.

  33. 7:30 am flight Sunday morning—only day all year I’d root against snow—air travel delays with children ages 6 and 9 who have talking about visiting grandparents in Florida for weeks = not good.

    1. What a special trip. There will never be anything that can compare to Macs and my visits to SC to see his parents.

      1. Special for the kids. 2 bedrooms, 2 parents, 2 kids, 2 grandparents = a bit too cozy. Plus I find the entire state of Florida to be a cautionary tale…but it’s for the kids!

        1. Hahahaha. My inlaws had a lovely condo, but small also. When young the three kids would sleep on the great rooms floor. BUT…my MIL wanted to add on. My FIL didn’t. So they compromised. My FIL would pay for a hotel for guests. AND the part my kids loved….if they slept in the floor my MIL made him give the money to them.

  34. That norlun look on the GFS is not really a norlun. Too progressive and not quite the right set-up. We will see that in the in-between runs when the model goes from not seeing something to seeing it differently.

  35. Even if there is snow on Sunday, I’m not sure if plows should do their thing as mother nature will likely melt it all away rather quickly. Or, am I totally misreading the models from Monday onward?

    1. The plows would have to work if we had plowable snow. There are still people that have to travel in the short term. And assuming this event happens and it’s Saturday night into early Sunday, there will be a period of time that it would be hazardous. The warm up comes later Sunday and early next week. That is when whatever falls would be gone.

  36. As I wrote yesterday – all it takes is one system that is anomalous to the pattern to create a stiring of the weather pot. Just as the already too much talked about March return of winter could pass without any appreciable snowfall because of timing and low / high placement.

    As for Saturday night. Just as the ECMWF has been consistently wrong in temps in the mid range it has been equally bad in its too high precipitation amounts. That said, I like some progressive system snowfall for most of the region in that timeframe.

  37. Wondering why I had a headache today, very high barometric pressure today. Read BHO had the 9th highest pressure in 100+ years.

  40. I’ll believe the snow when I see it.
    It would be amazing. Sticking in there between 2 significant SE Ridge warm ups.

    I am rooting for it. We shall see.

    1. The 00z GFS also says not so fast with the big warmup next week…..keeps it in the 40’s all week in much of Eastern MA. Cracks the low 50’s a few days in CT/RI/SE MA.

    2. correct. Passes underneath us. 1 inch bosto.
      2 inches to the South. Big woof. Let’s see todsy’s runs.

  43. I think we have seen this before…

    1. Snow storm shows up on the models out of nowhere 5 days out.
    2. Storm trends south of the region with little to no snow for the region.
    3. The storm trends closer within 36 hours of the event.

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