Wednesday Forecast

35 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)
A maritime air flow will keep it from truly drying out today and Thursday. Some warmth and higher humidity returns Friday as a warm front passes, but a cold front on its heels passes by early Saturday, bringing a little drier air back in for the weekend. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog especially this morning. Highs 63-69. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-69. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a shower overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Variably cloudy with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm at night. Highs 73-79. Wind SE to SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Risk of a shower early otherwise sun and passing clouds. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle to upper 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)
Warm front comes back toward the region September 24 which itself will be a cool and rather cloudy day based on current timing, then we get into a warmer south to southwest flow for a couple or a few days middle of this period with mostly fair but more humid and warm conditions. Cold front puts an end to that bringing showers and a downward trend in temperature at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)
Early call is for a drier/cooler September 29-30 weekend then an early October warm-up as the progression looks rather quick in the pattern.

35 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK – for everything you do.

    I hope and trust that your difficult time ends soon – things always seem to come in waves so just hold on and know that after it passes your due (overdue?) for better times/luck ahead. Always let us know if there’s anything we can do to support your work on the blog, monetarily, service wise, or any other way. This is such an amazing resource for so many of us and we truly appreciate it and you!

  5. Thanks, TK. Hope you are feeling better today. This humidity seems like it will never end, meaning having several days of sunny, cool and dry weather.

    1. That was kind of an awkward sentence. Meaning to say – hoping for several days of sunny, cool and dry weather.

  6. Once again, as with other events this summer, I cannot help but think that our well above average SST are helping to turn what might be a light to moderate drizzle event into something more.

    Very heavy, thick drizzle continuing on in Marshfield. At one point earlier in the morning, the ob was rain (as in moderate rain) and if drizzle can qualify as such, the ob wasn’t too far off.

  8. Thanks TK. Sorry to hear about everything you’re dealing with, I hope you can get it all straightened out and can focus on doing more of what you love. Always appreciate reading your insights here.

  10. The rain amounts around the Northeast yesterday were pretty impressive; not hard to see how that sort of rain over 2+ days led to the prodigious totals they had in the Carolinas.

    All in all I think Florence and its impacts were very well forecast by the official agencies. The NHC track forecast was phenomenal and frankly one of the best of all time. Intensity was more challenging as usual. It never could get its core together in those couple days before landfall. TK was on top of that, I’m still a little surprised it never made a serious run at Cat 5 status though. That definitely led to an underperformance in the wind and surge categories, thankfully. I think the rain pretty much delivered as promised though. Flooding has been fairly catastrophic. Quite a few lives lost and likely billions or tens of billions of dollars in damage. Some rivers still rising and several with their highest crests on record. As we know, in gauging how it performed versus the expectations it can be hard to distinguish between the actual forecast messaging and what the media puts out. It was a bad storm, certainly the worst in recent years for those parts of the Southeast and up there with their all time benchmarks (i.e. Hugo, Floyd) in terms of overall impact.

    1. The rain yesterday in our region was split with heavy amounts N&W of
      Boston and another Max Precip area S&E of boston. Boston was left in
      the middle with very unimpressive rain amounts. My rain gauged registered
      a grand total of 1.15 inches and coincidentally (or not) Logan measured the
      exact same amount of 1.15 inches.

  11. Thank you, TK. Hope you’re feeling better.

    My daughter returned to London where she’s studying. It’s always sad to see her go. I have a love/hate relationship with airports as a result of my own travels and my children’s. Joy upon their arrival, sadness upon their departure. She took an overnight flight on Monday and had the most turbulent flight she’s had in many years. Most of the turbulence occurred during the latter segment of the flight. I believe that what the aircraft was dealing with was a storm named Ali, which has wreaked havoc in the north of England and Scotland. I think that Ali was a storm that formed off the coast of West Africa, meandered to the middle of the Atlantic and then took a course towards the British Isles as a very strong Atlantic low.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-scotland-45571857

  13. Maroon 5 for Superbowl halftime. Its an actual band that has some musical talent that does not need technology to sound good 🙂 Rumor has it that they could include a marching band 🙂 Its time to bring Marching bands back to the shows like they use to.

    1. My wife and I have seen them twice. Once at the MGM Las Vegas and once
      at Mohegan Sun in Ct. AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      And I can tell you that they can ROCK with anyone. Unfortunately, the money
      is in POP and thus you see they music they produce. None-the-less they are
      oh so professional and Adam Levine can play almost any instrument. He can play a mean lead guitar and I can tell you that from witnessing it.

      1. I find people that play an instrument are more musically talented might just be me being biased but i truly feel like some of these pop icons have nothing on these bands that can play and sing, I like alot of music types but when ever I see a band taking in wind/brass instruments they are generally really good.

  14. Watch, this will be the first time the 384 hr on a GFS run will end up being correct and help the Carolinas if it comes true.

      1. Boston’s low temp was 70 or higher on 5 days, high temp was 90 or higher on 6 days including 99 on Sep 11 & 20, and about half the month saw high temps over 80. And this followed a viciously hot June through August meteorological summer. It was unrelenting. I’ve never seen a ridge that persistent.

  16. I’m really glad I have 2 months to get all the puzzle pieces together for the winter forecast, because as it stands right now, I am thoroughly perplexed figuring out the trends.

    Interestingly, and for just one example, eastern Canada may be quite cold in early October, giving them an opportunity to lay down early snowcover. However, it may be exceedingly dry there, and they might not get enough precipitation to put down much of anything!

    1. Eastern Canada, I think, has had a long run of colder than normal weather with the NAO staying positive for so long, allowing the cold air to sweep eastward as opposed to southward. I think this has been true most of this year, as I recall northeastern Canada being so frigid last winter, with very little blocking.

      Good luck getting a feel for the upcoming winter.

    1. Nope, 3rd warmest. But that is not taking into account that every single day Boston’s temperatures were recorded at 1 to 2 degrees higher than they actually were, so it was probably somewhere in the top 15, but not 3rd, if you make that correction.

  18. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/13/climate/hurricane-florence-environmental-hazards.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes flood waters have swept away ash pond wall allowing large amounts of mercury, arsenic and other toxic substances into the water ways and surrounding areas, It also has overrun several lagoons of pig waste in North Carolina. It has also over run several aquaculture ponds allowing fish that was not relocated to get out. It is just a mess down there.

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