Sunday Forecast

77 Comments

8:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)
Depending on what you observe, today may be “Epiphany” a.k.a. “Theophany”, “Denha”, “Little Christmas”, or “Three Kings’ Day”. All of those are names for a Christian feast day that observes, for lack of better description, the day the 3 wise men reached Bethlehem. For football fans, today is “Wildcard Sunday”. It’s also the day of a new moon. For some, it may just be “Sunday”. In the meteorological world, it’s a “cold air advection day”. What does “advection” mean? You’ve heard me say it before, but if you are not sure, the definition is. as appears in Merriam-Webster, “the usually horizontal movement of a mass of fluid (such as air or an ocean current) also : transport (as of pollutants or plankton) by such movement”. Well, I’m not expecting any plankton today, but what we will be seeing is a colder air mass moving in from Canada, hence “cold air advection” – or in comes the cold air mass! But it doesn’t start out too cold, we will reach or exceed 40 before it falls later on. What you do need to be aware of into the mid morning hours is patchy black ice as moisture from yesterday’s rainfall that was not able to evaporate has frozen as temperatures fell to just below freezing across much of the area, making untreated surfaces somewhat slippery. As the cold air moves in today, it will be with increasing wind, and as temperatures go above freezing for a time before the full arrival of the cold, the combination of the temperature increase and wind will eradicate the patchy ice issue. The day itself, weather-wise will feature a sun/cloud mix and there may be a brief passing rain or snow shower but no precipitation of any significant impact. Tonight and Monday we get a taste of mid winter air and it will be quite cold, but with diminishing wind, which will make it easier to take. Next comes that storm system, originally and prematurely hyped as a potential significant snow producer. I hesitated in going this far given model performance of late, and for got reason. We have a minor system passing by Tuesday and a quick follow-up Wednesday. The first brings snow showers with minor accumulation, especially north and west of Boston, ending as rain showers. The second, early Wednesday, brings additional rain/snow showers, though there may be a period of steadier rain/mix for a few hours depending on the evolution of the system, which will be rather compact. Behind that comes more wind and cold, and a few snow showers may linger later Wednesday into Thursday as the atmosphere bottles up a bit and a low pressure trough deepens just offshore. Any additional storminess responding to the evolution of this trough will occur well offshore, too far east for an impact here.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible this afternoon. Highs 38-45 morning, falling back through 30s afternoon. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts likely.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a risk of a passing snow shower early, then clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. A quick period of pre-dawn snow may coat the ground and may produce up to 1 inch north and west of Boston. Lows 24-31. Wind light variable to S.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow showers turning to rain showers south to north before ending west to east. Little or no additional snow accumulation.
Pre-dawn snow except mix South Coast with minor accumulation. Isolated rain showers thereafter. Highs 37-44. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable late.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely morning. Variably cloudy with snow showers possible afternoon. Temperatures generally stead 30s to lower 40s. Becoming windy late-day.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)
Dry and cold January 11. Unsettled weekend January 12-13 with snow/mix/rain possible but still looks like a relatively minor event as 2 systems stay separate. Drier weather returns January 14-15 but it may be windy as a large ocean storm may be located southeast of New England after the 2 systems that go by during the weekend join forces in the ocean.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)
Low confidence forecast as we’ll be looking for a transition from the Pacific flow pattern to one that should be a little more dominated by a broad trough and more northwesterly flow. But forecasting the evolution of this pattern and its timing is very difficult at this point. The period probably starts and ends dry with a passing system of rain/mix/snow somewhere in between.

77 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    My front steps were icy this morning. Fortunately I don’t run down the steps like when I was younger and I always grab hold of the railing anyway. I can now understand the concept of “black ice” that wasn’t immediately noticeable until much closer inspection.

    1. I am pretty sure the term black ice originated from clear ice that was on blacktop. A more proper term is really “ice that’s hard to see until you are viewing it from a seated position, or getting a close-up while lying on your back”.

      1. We ended up with 1.14 here in North Attleboro. More than 1/2 of that came in about 5 hours late yesterday afternoon/evening.

        1. 1.27 here. It was half and half between morning and later in the day. The last little bit struggled to get it over one and a quarter

    1. I bet that even if we had a cold high yesterday, that system would have been suppressed as well and wouldn’t have received any snow anyway.

  4. I Watched Jacob Wycoff last evening. He predicted Boston’s 1st inch of snow.
    He said a period of moderate snow going over to Rain.

    Honestly, I think not. I do NOT believe Logan receives an inch of snow.

    More like a coating, if that.

    1. I’m not even counting on the coating anymore. It seems that just prior to any approaching precip, it warms so quickly and starts as rain.

      1. 12Z 3Km NAM says ZERO snow for Boston or at leas ZERO
        accumulation should there be any snow in the air.

  5. Water temperature near Block Island still at 47 degrees. Many of the lakes and ponds down here in RI have no ice covering.

  6. It’s still early, but I’m starting to get used to our winter without a winter. I don’t like it, but It is what it is…bring on Spring.

    1. I’ve always loved that aspect of the holiday season. 🙂 Anything having to with long journeys has always fascinated me. Ironic because I’m not much of a traveler. 😉

  10. Latest NWS dials it back even more: https://i.imgur.com/YyQuVfD.png

    Late december/early january has always felt uneventful in terms of snow in my mind. I remember bookmarking something TK said before we had the early 2015 onslaught of blizzards (it had been a mild and dry pattern):

    “In the 1968-1969 Winter, which is one of the analogs for this Winter, Boston had 6.4 inches of snow THROUGH JANUARY.

    They ended up almost 10 inches ABOVE NORMAL for the Winter when it was over. Regardless of your outlook on snow (love it, hate it, neutral), as a forecaster you never ever EVER EVER EVER … EVER! draw a conclusion about the Winter snowfall before the end of Astronomical Winter. Things can turn instantly.”

    Not saying that this winter will land above normal by quoting thr above — just saying that things can turn instantly. Mother nature decides to turn on a dime a lot. TK wound up sounding prophetic after all was said and done that winter when it wasn’t a prophecy just weighted in heaps of past experience and research. That’s why I love this blog over most daily forecasts and especially over twitter meteorologist musings lol. So I mean this when I say it: thanks for this post TK.

    1. I forget my exact wording in 2015 but I said something about January 24 to March 8. I’ll have to go search.

      And that was very nice of you. Thanks!

    2. Awesome post Dr and ever so true. I honestly cannot recall when I watched tv for a forecast. It isn’t because I don’t appreciate the Mets on our local stations, but I see no reason to turn anywhere but here. Whw is not only the place for accurate weather, but also the place to enjoy the possibilities and even more to enjoy our little family.

  11. Thanks TK
    I could sit back enjoy wild card Sunday after the Cowboys win last night. I would rather go take on the Rams then have to go the Superdome and take on the Saints next weekend even though we beat them in Dallas. Saints are a much different team at home than on the road..

    1. Enjoy JJ !

      The cowboys have a formula to beat the Saints.

      Dominate the run game with Elliot, having long drives and keep the saints offense on the sideline as much as possible.

  12. I’m not being sarcastic, I promise ….

    It’s too bad the 2nd shortwave in that Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe isn’t another 100 miles further south. That would be an interesting rain to snow scenario in eastern mass.

    As it is, that’s going to be nice for northern New England and downeast Maine may get a whopper of a snowstorm if that intensifies in the gulf of Maine, as projected on the models.

    1. Just not in the cards for us i Sne.
      I am very pessimistic foe the Winter as a whole. Just hoping for a little action at some point.
      Either way, not much we can do about it.

      1. Well, looking like some real winter cold for a few days may be in the cards later next week, so it will feel like winter for a while.

        We’ll have to wait 72 to 96 hrs, but I wonder even if a southern stream misses, if eastern mass might get an ocean effect setup, with an actual very cold, strong high to the north and lower
        pressure passing well southeast. Perhaps an opportunity for some NE flow at 850 mb and the surface ???????? Later next work week time frame.

        1. Well, that would be something anyway. I like ocean
          effect set ups. Sometimes with the right set up, they
          can really produce.

  13. Tom what you said is exactly what the Cowboys need to do against the Saints. They can’t get in a shootout with them as the Cowboys don’t have the offensive weapons that they have. The defense has to do what it did against them the first time they played and have Dak and the offense do just enough to put them in a spot to win the game. You could say the same thing if the play the Rams.

  14. Was just out. Took this photo at the end of the Roche Brothers parking lot in
    West Roxbury, a neighborhood of Boston some 7-8 miles from Logan.

    https://imgur.com/a/fZmduBK

    This is what remains of the snow pile from lot plowing from the Official Boston
    Snowfall of 0.01 inch on 11/15. It is now 1/6. That is pretty amazing for a .1 inch
    snowfall, don’t you think???????

    Actually, W. Roxbury had a minimum of 5 inches from that storm. 😀 😀 😀

    2. Because even though mid December to now has been “milder”, it has never really been “warm”. We were seasonable a lot of days, and slightly milder than average several others. No big warm stretches like some other spells. That combined with the lowest sun angle of the year allowed that pile to survive.

  18. Same here Philip. Reminded me of summer with the fat rain drops and mostly blue sky and a few dark grey clouds over head.

    2. This will be the run that all those FB pages being run by the you-know-who’s will post and the hype will begin.

  27. 00z FV3 is a pretty big hit again as well. Low is closer to the coast though so would be a snow to mix to snow situation. Still significant accumulation.

    00z ICON has the storm as well but is a near miss. CMC has nothing at all.

    Noticing the high over Canada on the GFS, FV3, and ICON is north of the Great Lakes while the CMC has it north of us. The high further west helps the northern energy dive further south, phases the storm earlier, and gives it an avenue to come up the coast. On the CMC, no phasing, and the high closer to us helps shunt the southern stream energy out to sea well to our south.

  29. 00z Euro is a near miss for Sunday. Grazes Long Island, MV, and ACK with an inch or two of snow.

    At least there is something to track, though I will be keeping my expectations low.

    2. Yes, keep them low, very low.
      BUT, the probability of a hit is not zero.
      The Euro has moved it significantly more North than the previous run.
      Until the euro shows a hit, I regard the other runs as pure TRASH.

      6Z GFS now even closer with snow to rain.

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019010706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

      6z FV3-GFS, still a hit

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019010706/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

      shows like semi-phasing, but gets it here

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019010706/fv3p_z500_vort_us_27.png

  31. RE: snow for tomorrow….
    I see nothing to as much as 2 inches depending on model of choice.
    I’d lean towards nothing, but we shall see.

  34. Upon COMPLETION of Wild Card Weekend, GFS releases its up-to-the-second Super Bowl Prediction ……

    Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears

    Bears win on a last second field goal that, later determined, exactly splits the upright.

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