Monday Forecast

126 Comments

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)
High pressure dominates today. The strong winds of last night are out of here and it will be a tranquil day with cold air, less wind, and sunshine, but that sun will start to fade later in the day as high cloudiness increases ahead of the next low pressure area, which will actually be 2 low pressure areas in rapid succession, the first bringing a light rain to snow event Tuesday, the second bringing a period of rain/mix ending as mix/snow showers Wednesday, at which time the wind will return, and blow significant into Thursday, delivering the coldest air mass since before astronomical winter began. In fact, it may be the coldest air since we saw way back on Thanksgiving, which was colder than Christmas. This cold air will be well established by Friday, and this time the wind may continue along with it as well.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine dominates but high clouds increase later. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early becoming light variable.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. A pre-dawn period of snow west to east but favoring areas north of I-90 with a quick coating of the ground. Lows 19-26 evening then temperature rising slowly through the 20s. Wind light variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow morning with a coating to 1 inch, ending as rain showers from west to east during midday and afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns west to east but may be mixed with snow southwestern NH and north central MA. Lows 31-38. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers changing to snow showers with minor accumulation possible. Highs 38-45 morning, falling through 30s afternoon. Wind SW to W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the lower to middle 30s but fall sharply late.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 10s. Highs from the upper 10s to middle 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)
Cold air will be dominant as high pressure is located over interior eastern Canada. At the same time low pressure will try to organize south of the region, and while model guidance is all over the map, the leaning is for a minor impact from a system that is never organized until its well out to sea, leaving this area with cloudiness arriving January 12 and a risk of some snow January 13. Drier but still cold weather after that.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)
This overall pattern during this period is expected to be drier and colder than average but as many times noted with model guidance performing poorly beyond a few days this is a low confidence outlook at this time.

126 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Upon COMPLETION of Wild Card Weekend, GFS releases its up-to-the-second Super Bowl Prediction ……

    Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears

    Bears win on a last second field goal that, later determined, exactly splits the upright.

  3. Good morning, everyone and thanks as always, TK!

    “Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.”
    We are picking up in 2019 right where we left off in 2018.
    In the first seven days of the new year, we already 2.58″ of rain as my sump pump
    can attest. Last summer, something told me to upgrade my sump pump system. It’s a good thing I listened to that little voice!

    Obviously, we have made a big dent in the long term drought. Our yearly precipitation average is 51.85″. The seven-year mean for the last seven years (2012-2018) is 48.66.”

      1. You got it! Saw them at the Worcester Centrum on their first farewell tour in 1982. I think they are up to their 19th farewell tour now! 🙂

  4. Good morning and thank you, TK.

    Looking as if we will be taking down the outside decorations in the cold this week. But then, it is winter!

  5. Here’s a quick, Monday morning trivia question (my grades and correcting are up-t0-date!!!):

    There is a one locality/observation station that has the distinction of being the station that has recorded both Massachusetts’ all-time maximum and minimum temperatures.
    That station was located in:

    a) Orange
    b) Blue Hill
    c) Chester
    d) Coldbrook

    The answer at the end of fourth period!

  7. 7 day forecasts: https://i.imgur.com/wJrw2tG.jpg

    Please take particular note of WBTS 10/NECN’s forecast. The forecaster said “using our proprietary in house modeling/guidance system we are tracking a 30% chance of snow for sunday.” I found this to be interesting. Hyping a potential snowbowl for the patriots? lol

    Here are the snowfall forecast amounts from around the dial including the latest NWS map: https://i.imgur.com/1pcBs9b.jpg

    1. Those maps for tomorrow all seem realistic. Take your pick.
      A coating to 1 inch at best. Bet on coating. 😀

      re: Sunday
      Time will tell. It depends upon the interaction of Southern and Northern
      stream. It has been made clear to us that models struggle with the split
      flow and often over amplify the Southern stream. We shall see.

      1. Yeah sunday still feels like a coinflip. Especially since we are almost a week removed from it. And we all know at this juncture how precise guidance is six days out. That said if the colts beat kansas city and the patriots beat the chargers then even if we don’t get a snow bowl this sunday the colts would have to come to gillette and we get another chance at a snow bowl. lmao

        2. The snowbowl was probably my all time favorite game. I admit to watching replays of it.

          Thank you for the forecasts as always!

  9. It hs happened again – another friend asked me about the six inches we are getting on Sunday. I said “let me guess you use the wunderground app”. Yep. I’ve now installed it. I will post a new image each day leading up to Sunday to see how it fluctuates and what we actually get so I can show them how unreliable it is. (Unless of course this is one of the very few random times it hits. lol) so here is day one of the wunderground sunday snow prediction screenshot: https://i.imgur.com/mcBWgMm.jpg

  11. That’s still a big hit on the 12z GFS and this run would be all snow for SNE. 3 runs in a row now from the GFS showing a significant impact…..

  14. NWS tweeted a big red NO on twitter for sunday. https://i.imgur.com/44bAd69.jpg

    Seems to have upset a few people. Some choice responses:

    “Foolish to say “no” when all options are clearly on the table 6 days out. You’ll look foolish now if it hits”

    “Just a couple days ago the Euro was saying the same thing the Gfs is went overnight. Also, the Euro caved to the Gfs on a OTS scenario. Now, the Gfs went to what the Euro originally said. Too early to call odd.”

    “It’s unlike you not to try and scare people.”

    1. Eric Fisher response:

      From the start, February has always had the strongest signal for cold and snowy conditions here locally. Still looks to be the case. Also, it is often our coldest and snowiest month anyway, because #winter

  19. John Homenuk‏ @jhomenuk · 3h3 hours ago

    In addition, wanted to comment on one thing: Saying “The GFS is an outlier to its own ensemble” and stamping “NO” on it is not useful. There is moderate ensemble support for an event – discussing the spread or envelope of solutions is much more beneficial. But that’s my opinion.

  20. Models are showing something will be around Sunday, If its suppressed, normal new england winter storm, big hit, rain its all on the table. We won’t have a good handle on it until Thursday/Friday

      1. I will also wait for the ensemble members to come in as well as I feel like that will give us a better picture.

  21. I disagree with acknowledging the GFS. Its awful.

    Look at the 500 mb flow on its 12z run around the 13th and 14th. It looks awful for a New England snow event, let alone a snowstorm. How its surface features translate from that 500 mb flow amuses me.

    Thats a flattening southern stream system, as it approaches our region with NW flow across SE Canada and into Northern New England. Thats not my idea of the 500 mb flow needed for a good New England snowstorm.

    Onto the EURO !!!!!

  23. Beautiful today. But, it has no staying power. Frustrating, especially given the mixed bag of precipitation and gray skies ahead the coming days. I’ve really, really had enough rain, mix, and glop at this point. Let’s have it snow or just be sunny and cold for an extended period. I’m afraid that may be too much to ask.

    The Alps are receiving their `fair’ share of snow. It’s in the upper elevations, as valleys and major cities in the area are mostly getting rain.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46780856

  24. 12z Euro is a miss. No surprise there. MSLP on the Euro operational pretty much looks like the GFS ensemble mean. Low tracks east of the Outer Banks and out to sea.

  25. Any time forecasters repeatedly postpone winter by several weeks I’m skeptical. One can only put off winter for so long until it’s no longer winter. Sure, it can get cold and snowy in February, as some are now indicating. But, I saw similar tweets last month suggesting a return of winter in January. That hasn’t happened. So, I take a wait and see approach to how this `winter’ unfolds.

    1. This is actually winter. This is the winter pattern that can be expected in the type of large scale set up we have.

      This is not a non-winter. It’s a winter with (so far) very little snow. We’ve had many.

  26. It’s surprising how many people (met’s included) bite as hard as they do on runs that show something happening but will hardly give notice to runs that show something not happening. JMA nailed it the other day when he said a lot of mets are winter weather lovers. Not that there is anything wrong with loving winter weather or any kind of weather, but you NEED TO LEARN TO KEEP IT APART from your duty as a forecaster.

    There is a term that applies here: “Confirmation bias”. Even Dr. Cohen suffers it on occasion. And yes I have been guilty on many an occasion. I have been pushing myself hard to not let that sneak in.

    1. I have said in the past to some friends that mets are winter weather lovers because I always see them posting about going skiing and it is when they get the most attention from the public (and probably a ratings boost.) A slow and boring winter definitely hurts the latter.

  27. Quiz answer is
    c) Chester

    David W. Parrett, Jr. operated an official NWS-Weather Bureau station in the western Massachusetts town of Chester and recorded the two all-time, Massachusetts temperature extremes:
    The hottest day ever, 107, in 1975 tied with New Bedford.
    and and the coldest night ever, -35, in 1981, tied with Coldbrook (?) and Taunton.(1904).
    David Parrett was a weather contributor to WTIC in Hartford.

  28. Canadian:Bench mark storm but sends rain eastern sections
    canadian ensemble mean all over the place but average is well south.
    Icon. Suppressed south
    Fv3 gfs: outside bench mark. further south than last few runs
    gfs: Further south than previous runs and weaker. Around bench mark
    gfs ensemble mean. Ensemble members mixed two groupings One closer to us one group well south. mean is off the mid-atlantic
    gfs ensembles 20
    Outside bench mark 11
    Bnech mark 6
    inside runner 3
    5 decent hits out of 20
    EURO. Southern and northern energy does not meet up, suppressed southern energy off the mid-atlantic coast.
    EURO ensemble mean
    Ensemble members.
    Outside bench mark Miss 14
    outside bench mark 14
    bench mark 7
    inside bench mark 3
    other 11 (several show a northern piece and southern piece trying to merge around our area. Some further north some further south. Further south ones give more snow.
    4 ensembles show good big hits

    My point, the models are all over the place.

    1. wont know much about this system until later this week . One storm at a time. Models are not 100% on tomorrow/Wednesday so we will have to watch and see what happens with this before we talk about the weekend/ early next week.

      1. Yeah people on twitter want to call a storm so quickly like… we still have systems coming through that might impact how the rest of the week goes so why not let them pass before you call it a slam dunk one way or another. Let the energy pass before you start talking in absolutes.

        Fun to watch though. lol

  29. Hello All. Sorry I haven’t been posting the AccuWeather Quizzes. I am in the middle of retiring from work and moving to Swampscott this month.

    I did notice that AccuWeather reminded us that one year ago yesterday, we had wind chills of something like 20 to 30 below zero and had a high temp of 12 F.

    Back to the quizzes this coming weekend I hope.

    1. Meanwhile a non-met run FB page is calling for a widespread plowable snow for MA Wednesday because the HRRR shows the second storm (on the US / Canadian border, and by the way is actually the first one) redeveloping south of Cape Cod, which it doesn’t because it doesn’t go out that far, and even if it did, it wouldn’t show that because that storm is going across central New England. Oh well, close enough?

  37. Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher · 2h2 hours ago

    EPS odds of 1″ of snow *total* through the next 7 days is a coin-flip in Boston. As we know in mid-winter things can change rapidly…which is why we’ll be keeping tabs on Sunday.

    It’s also why you shouldn’t pay any attention to a weather app’s snowfall outside of 3-ish days

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1082368809191854080

    1. My mentor taught me to mix persistence with experience in a pattern like this. I’ll lean more toward 60/40, 60 being for the lighter amount.

  39. Obviously it’s too early to have much confidence, but I share Tom’s sentiment from earlier that (despite what some people elsewhere have said), the 500mb pattern being forecast for the weekend does not scream major Northeast snowstorm to me. A more suppressed, predominantly southern stream system is probably most likely, with any phasing waiting until the components are offshore. There could be a good deal of moisture with the southern stream component even if it’s not a strong surface low, but the better chance for wintry precip may be south of New England. The new 18z GFS actually looks pretty reasonable to me, though we will surely see many more changes.

    Maybe this is the start of a gradual transition to the pattern of suppression we had been looking to be more of a factor this winter. But it probably won’t be all at once. The long range right now is a mess.

  41. Even the 12z GFS was far from a complete phase. It just really amplified that southern stream component with a little bit of a boost from the northern stream. The only true phasing solution from the 12z guidance was the CMC.

  42. According to Harvey, even if the storm is a miss, there is still ocean effect snow for the coastline, including Foxboro.

  44. Judah Cohen‏ @judah47 · 5h5 hours ago

    Seems to me predicted splitting of #PolarVortex into three “daughter” vortices is analogous of identical triplets with initial PV or zygote splitting into two and then one of the daughter vortices or zygote further splitting into two.

      1. kind of guess that was something going on not to mention the reason why the fv3 is still a thing……thought it was to be changed sometime this month.

  47. NWS must have gotten the point regarding their earlier tweet. Their latest tweet is much less “decisive” regarding Sunday 🙂

    NWS Boston‏Verified account @NWSBoston

    [Sunday storm?] Computer models still disagree on potential storm Saturday night and Sunday. One shows a close approach, the other stays farther south with just a low chance. This type of disagreement is to be expected 5 or 6 days out.

    1. FAR more reasonable. Perhaps the previous forecaster was pissed that
      he/she wasn’t getting paid.

  48. I just noticed this by zooming in on my Radarscope display of the Norton NWS radar.
    If you ever wanted to know exactly where the radar is located, here ya go.
    This shows a Hole in the ground clutter where the radar is located.

    https://imgur.com/a/IjCBeRA

  51. The problems with National Weather Service data collection during this latest shutdown have been widely reported. I think it’s shameful that federal workers are pawns in a game immature, hypocritical politicians play. And I blame both sides for the impasse. It’s disgraceful that an affluent, industrialized nation ever shuts down its government services, even if it’s a partial shutdown.

  52. 00z GFS delivers a moderate hit. No big phase but rather a quick moving southern stream low that tracks outside of the benchmark. 3-6″ for SNE except 6″+ coastal CT, RI and SE MA. Central/southern NJ jackpots with up to a foot of snow.

  53. 00z CMC is a sideswipe for the South Coast. Very similar to the GFS with a quick moving, unphased southern stream system but suppressed further south. NJ gets it pretty good again.

    00z ICON is way suppressed. Actually brings the Canadian high so far south that it is in Upstate NY on Sunday evening. Cold and dry, not a flake in the sky…..

  54. 00z Euro is actually very similar to the ICON run. High pressure from Canada digs way south over northern New England Sunday evening. Low is suppressed so far that it doesn’t even make it north of SC.

    Yep. Cold and dry, kiss it goodbye!

  57. The 6z GFS certainly emphasizes the suppression potential not just with the weekend storm but for the foreseeable future also. Split flow with no phasing and several systems sliding to the south. Can’t write off the weekend storm yet but the overnight guidance trended in the direction I was expecting. We’ll see what today brings 🙂

    2. Agree all ’round.
      Does open the door for a few Canadian cold fronts that can bring snow showers/squalls. I love those. 🙂

    3. Meanwhile that non-met weather page I referred to but won’t name has pulled out all the stops and declares all of New England and nearby areas will be rapidly building a snow pack because that pattern they talked about for the last month (but kept delaying by one week every week) is now here! 😉 mmmmk!

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