Tuesday Forecast

113 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
High pressure brings cold and dry weather today between yesterday’s unsettled weather and the next bout of precipitation, which will be arriving Wednesday evening in the form of snow as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, but this time the primary storm being weaker, a slightly stronger secondary development, and a little colder air will result in a little longer frozen precipitation episode, and while we still warm aloft enough to end the snow-making up there, the surface will stay cold enough for a little more sleet and freezing rain before it finally warms enough at least southern and eastern areas to end as rain Thursday. Thankfully, however, this will not be a prolific precipitation producer or we’d be talking about higher snow totals and more serious icing than we will be seeing. Once this system departs later Thursday, dry weather is back for the end of the week and the start of the weekend, although by Saturday night we may be seeing impacts from the next system, and that may also start as snow.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arriving southwest to northeast, accumulating up to 1 inch south of I-90 and over inch to the north before changing to sleet and freezing rain. Lows 23-30. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast morning with freezing rain and rain ending. Icy untreated surfaces. Areas of fog. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH early, NW 10-20 MPH later.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Leaning toward a milder solution with snow/mix to rain for February 24 system but have to watch it because this system may end up further southeast and colder. Clearing, windy, colder February 25. Tranquil but cold February 26. Next storm system threatens later February 27 or 28 with some precipitation but does not look major at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)
Early indications are that March may enter like the proverbial lion with some drastic temperature changes and at least one storm threat. Plenty of time to figure out details.

113 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks Tk . So your thinking snow in Boston tomorrow around an inch ? Do you have an idea on when it should be straight rain in the city .

      1. Sorry, no.
        All I can say is that is an absolutely beautiful place and although
        I have not personally witnessed it up close, I have from a distance.
        Breath taking.

      1. Do you mean the actual physical location within the USA?
        OR do you mean what website I lifted it from?
        ๐Ÿ˜€ ๐Ÿ˜€ ๐Ÿ˜€

        1. You didnโ€™t make clear that you knew the answer to where the picture was taken so I was trying to figure out how you wound up with the image lol

          1. Ok fair enough….

            I have visited Las Vegas, NV so many times, I should have been locked up. For a stretch I was going there at least once a month.

            If you ever saw the movie “21”, that is exactly what I was doing. No I was not a member of the
            MIT card counting team, but I had my own team and we would meet out there and do our thing
            at/to the casinos. I was the most fun I have ever had in my life. The only problem was the casinos did NOT like it. I got thrown out of so many casinos, I had to give it up (plus they have ruined the game so it is essentially not beatable anymore.

            That was the back ground.

            So the image is from Lee Canyon (which technically is within the Las Vegas City Limits).
            The image is from the Lee Canyon website. Lee
            Canyon is located next to Mt. Charleston.

            Here is a link to the website. The view from
            the top of one of the lifts is the image and it
            was taken yesterday.

            https://www.leecanyonlv.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain

            STATISTICS
            Base Lodge Elevation: 8,510 ft.

            Summit 11,289 ft.

            Avg. Annual Snowfall: 161 in.

            1. For those that don’t know, Card Counting
              is a system that when employed properly
              can BEAT the casino game of Black Jack.

    3. Flagstaff, AZ ????? ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

  5. Liking the trend on your forecast for Feb 24. Was mix-rain and is now snow/mix to rain….

    83 degrees and humid at Lion Country Safari

  7. Thank you, TK. Dana meeting is tomorrow night and I really want to attend this month. But it ends by 6:00….I assume that driving should be fine at that point? Thank you.

  10. Thank you, TK

    Well, the stubborn active pattern persists. Each system doesn’t deliver a lot of precipitation, but we’re getting a steady diet of rain, mix, and snow for the foreseeable future.

    1. Frustrating how the mid Atlantic gets pummeled with 6″ of snow and then the snow shield just breaks apart over us. Just too much cold and dry air in place. Then of course the snow shield re-solidifies over NNE as the secondary low takes over. We are stuck in the middle with a snow hole.

      Normally I would not root for the high pressure to depart more quickly, but perhaps if it does the up front snow will thump a little harder in CT. Best chance for more up front accumulation where you are JJ.

  14. Hmmmโ€ฆ..

    Mark says:
    February 18, 2019 at 4:37 PM

    Judah Cohenโ€ @judah47 ยท 7h7 hours ago
    โ€œMarch comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.โ€ GFS says the โ€œin like a lionโ€ half will be correct with widespread #cold temperatures across Canada and the US.

    Woods Hill Weather says:
    February 18, 2019 at 4:42 PM
    Iโ€™ve been quietly monitoring the possibility of a PV lobe visit.

    Mark says:
    February 18, 2019 at 4:44 PM
    with associated East Coast blizzard? ๐Ÿ™‚

    12z GFS today says:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021912&fh=324

    ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. You are setting yourself up for a disappointment then. I have been trying all winter and you’ve seen the results!

  15. Current satellite showing snow cover in SNE. Easy to see who got screwed with this past storm…

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_02/20190219_114844.jpg.5848fa5a570ba964e671f5e0757282b7.jpg

    The heavier band with the last system clearly ended up further north than projected. Any foreshadowing for tomorrow? Models have definitely trended north with the heavier precip over the past 24 hours….now seeing 3-5″ amounts showing up in the NYC area to SW CT.

  16. Looking at the 12z NAM looks like a strong to severe line of showers and storms that is weakening pushing northeast. That area is weakening on the approach to my area.

  17. 15z RAP same area with the thumping of snow NYC area into southwestern CT. Hold together just a little bit more as I am on the edge from getting into 2-4 inch area instead of an inch of snow.

  18. Mark posted the link below earlier. This looks like a Henry Margusity `Big Daddy’ East Coast storm, but it’s unlikely to materialize:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021912&fh=324

    However, what looks more and more likely is a cold start to March. We’ve had plenty of these in recent years. Actually, throughout my lifetime March has been mostly a wintry month in New England. Last year at this time it was in the 70s throughout SNE. Two or three weeks later the entire region got hit by a major snowstorm after a sustained period of cold. I’m no longer surprised by this.

    The red-winged blackbirds have started their long flight to New England. Many resided in Mexico and other warm places from September to February. No wall to stop them on their way to the U.S., though they’ll make several pit-stops on the way for `re-fueling’ (ie, berries, worms, and bugs).

    2. He’s already called for about 7 or 8 BD’s. None of them occurred except one marginal for the Mid Atlantic earlier in the winter.

  20. 12Z ECMWF gives SNE a 36″ dusting over 12 hours on 2/27-2/28. Good 20:1 plus ratios too.

    I am all in. Hitting the grocery store this afternoon to prepare. Well, right after I send out some model snow maps on my 52 twitter burner accounts.

    1. One of the fairest bets in “meteorology” a.k.a. model forecasting is that when the Euro paints those kinds of #’s more than 24 hours in advance, you can pretty much bank on it being far, far, FAR less, including all the way down to zero. ๐Ÿ˜‰

      Hope they don’t have freezer burn. ๐Ÿ˜‰

      2. Sweet, everybody wins! And it’s Kuchera ratios so it must be right! Better get the Avalanche Watches hoisted for Tuckerman’s with that 50″ bullseye over Mt. Washington.

    1. It sure beats the cutter-palooza. At least they are showing something. Gives a shred of hope that the atmosphere might be capable of producing a pure snowstorm here!

  26. In all seriousness, I have noted on the models that the system middle of next week, and even to some extent, the cutter this Sunday, have been trending colder. We’ll see if any of this has legs.

    As far as the Euro solution, looks like the typical model bias to overamp the southern stream too much in the 7+day range. But boy would I like just one of these to verify this season. Is that too much to ask? I’ll even settle for a 50% reduction in those snow totals, take my 18″ and run!

    2. Your biggest factor is MJO which sits low in phase 8. It’s far from “perfect” but it’s better than it had been. Ensembles for GFS (which again have been best at this, though not great either) drag it toward extremely weak phase 1 to neutral. That will keep the chance more of a glimmer of hope than a “hey we’re about to get nailed!”

      1. In addition to the favorable MJO, other teleconnections for middle of next week:

        Positive PNA – favorable for a change!
        Neutral NAO

        We’ll see…โ€ฆโ€ฆ…

  28. Ok, I have seen all of the Euro snow maps.

    Here is the grid for boston (Beacon Hill and NOT Logan).

    Note: Overnight tomorrow…1.4 inches of snow and 0.34 inch of ICE.
    For MEGA BOMB next week, 26.1 inches for Boston.

    https://imgur.com/a/ZmVNwzf

      1. Let’s do it then. Records are made to be broken, are they not????

        ha ha ha

        Getting a good chuckle out of all of this.

        JUST ONCE! I would like to see a forecast for 9 days out VERIFY!!!! Ha ha hardy har har.

      2. While I’m skeptical about the projected `maga’ storms, the positioning of high pressure areas to our north and lows coming up the coast appears (to a total amateur like me) to be more favorable for snows in SNE than at any point this winter. The SE ridge of high pressure appears to relax as well.

        1. we have seen models place the high in a good position this far out just for the high pressure to move quicker and out to sea for it to move to the west of us.

  29. Eric Fisherโ€™s tweet….

    If I had to pick a ‘winter’s last hurrah’ period to watch for possible snowstorms, it’s the Feb 27th-March 6th time period (give or take a couple). Baroclinic highway along the east coast. We’re not out yet

    1. A little early for him to say that with pretty much all of March to go after that. ๐Ÿ˜‰ But when you combine it with climatology, I suppose it’s a fairly fair statement (yes I used that expression on purpose). ๐Ÿ™‚

  30. Oh yeah and the CMC (GEM) has a big sprawling high pressure area over New England at the same time the Euro is delivering it’s 3 to 4 feet of snow.

    Computer models……………..

  33. I donโ€™t have to look at a single model to predict whatever happens next week will be:

    Miss

    Or

    1-3โ€ of snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain

        1. Yes, I figured so, simply because the HRRR has more
          of what I want. We hardly ever get what we want. ๐Ÿ˜€

  35. Laughed out loud at this tweet from Eric….

    Eric Fisher
    โ€Verified account @ericfisher
    1h1 hour ago

    Saturday night into Sunday rinse wash repeat. Some early mix changing over to rain. I’ve lost exact count but seems reasonable this is the 10,000th time we’ve had this track.

  36. GFS looks Like warmed over tuna casserole!
    PUKE!!! GAG!!! blah blah
    About 0.8 inch of snow before change to slop and rain. Getting SICK to DEATH
    of this scenario()@*#!(*@&#(*!(@&#*!&@#(*&(!*@

  38. well if the euro depiction for wednesday of next week happens, my prediction of only needing a few good snow storms will be correct lol.

    1. I’ve yet to see a Euro prediction of snow that far in advance verify. And most of them have been way, way off. This will probably fall right into that category as well. ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. still crappy, some of the stuff today on here made me laugh which I should not have done as I have lost my voice.

  41. I mentioned Sun night that my son and I went hiking on Monadnock in SW NH Sunday. Weather was beautiful then like it was today. Sunny, upper 20’s and no wind. I have never seen such great visibility as what we had that day…must have been approaching 80 miles. We had a clear view to Okemo and Mt Snow VT to the west, Mt Washington to the north, and even the Boston skyline to the SE. Here are a couple shots:

    Looking west from the summit towards VT:

    https://imgur.com/a/NCEa23h

    Looking north from the summit:

    https://imgur.com/a/k3In1Ak

    Descending east down from the summit on the White Dot trail:

    https://imgur.com/a/GP63xAk

    Much of the trail had compacted ice and snow so needed the microspikes the whole way, but we managed OK. Up and down in 3.5 hours. This is a great hike if you have never done it. Gets a bit crowded on the weekends in the summer though.

      1. It’s a good warmup to White Mtn hiking. Steep with rock scrambling and above treeline views but without the length and vertical rise of most of the hikes in the Presidentials.

  42. The funny thing about this winter, is that not only have there been very few actual snow events, but inside day 10 there have also been very few if any of the sort of model depictions the Euro showed today. Typically we’d have seen dozens of runs like that by now. And there’s a good reason for why we’ve seen this: models are better with upper air patterns than surface features. And the upper air patterns, which they’ve done a decent job with, have consistently made storms like that impossible. So even though model surface forecasts have been poor at times, they have at least allowed us to rule out “major snow event” very early on in most of the events we’ve seen. So while I don’t believe what the 12z Euro showed, I do take it as a possible clue that the endless pattern we have been in may change next week. How that manifests at the surface is anyone’s guess. Let’s get through tomorrow first ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. With the models not showing any โ€œmega-bombโ€ events, I guess I should add with the exception of the FV3.

    2. And that upper air pattern looks promising into at least the first week of March as well should next week not materialize. A “window of opportunity” as Eric F says…โ€ฆ.

      [probably likely to somehow just end up another “window of disappointment ๐Ÿ™‚ ]

  43. Well this is interesting :re Boston snow measurements this season……

    Ryan Hanrahanโ€๏€ฒVerified account๏‚™ @ryanhanrahan ยท 5h5 hours ago

    A lot of complaints about the Boston snow totals this year and this may be the reason. I stumbled across this showing the location of the snow measurements – about 5.5 miles east of the Common. So probably correct but not terribly representative. @PeteNBCBoston @ericfisher

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1097965160579379200

    1. So if I read this correctly, the snow measurements this year are actually being made at the Dear Island Treatment Facility, in the middle of the water 2.6 miles even further ESE than Logan??

      May as well just stick the Boston snowboard out in the middle of the Gulf Stream…..close enough!

      1. That’s crazy. Sure, the harbor islands are part of Boston. But, in terms of (micro)climate they’re different from the rest of Boston. Cooler in summer, milder in winter. Not by much, but certainly by a few degrees.

        Great pictures from Monadnock, Mark.

        Found this article on the fast and furious jet stream, which is making west-to-east flights faster and east-to-west flights slower:

        https://www.boston.com/news/travel/2019/02/19/flight-reaches-801-mph-as-a-furious-jet-stream-packs-record-breaking-speeds

      1. This is why we don’t get excited about model forecasts beyond 3 days and most especially in this large scale locked in regime we have this winter. Even getting MJO into phase 8 is not going to fix the models. ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. Can I get excited about the models who open the briefcases on deal or no deal – or are they too far out of my league? lol

  45. model consensus is 1-3 inches for overnight with a leaning towards the low end.

    Euro has 2.6 for boston. Nams around 1 inch. Gfs about 2.

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