Monday Forecast

120 Comments

2:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
Storm #1 departs today but takes a little longer than I previously thought as an elongated trough that was once the primary low makes its way southeastward across the region. So, snow is largely done accumulating by dawn but there will still be some snow showers to go through. After a nice delivery of cold air tonight and a dry, chilly Tuesday courtesy high pressure, storm #2 will head this way and bring the chance of snow by Wednesday night which will likely change to a mix then rain during the course of Thursday morning before ending. This will not be a major storm. By the end of the week, it’s back to dry weather again.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Steadiest snow tapering off early with 1 to 4 inches accumulation then snow showers with little additional accumulation. Some sleet and rain mixing in along the South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a risk of a snow shower. Clearing overnight. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast with mix to rain and areas of fog morning. Partial clearing afternoon. Temperatures rise to the 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Dry start to the weekend February 23 then a storm of mix to rain expected February 24. Dry and colder weather expected February 25-26 then the next storm system may impact the region with rain or snow by February 27. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
Mild and unsettled start to the period as February ends. Much colder but dry weather is possible to start off the month of March.

120 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK. We have been alternating between light and moderate snow with the occasional burst of heavier snow here in Coventry CT. 1.8″ on the ground so far. 25 degrees. Precip has actually changed over to sleet in many areas across southern CT with some frz rain/drizzle further south. Sure hoping that stays south of here.

  5. Almost to Logan. Based on my on the road observations I think TK, WeatherWx etc nailed it. About 2-3 inches in Harvard to a coating in Boston.

  10. Good morning. Have not been out to measure, but my eye ball test looking out
    the window says 2-3 inches. I’ll measure in a bit. Need to wake up first.
    Barely snowing at all. Sure looks like accumulation is done.

    Thanks for the update TK.

      1. No it’s all good just a lot goes into it Philip & it’s not done yet . Snow removal Philip is tough and all nighters are extremely tough .

  14. I have coffee and we still have light snow. Son in law cleared snow and there is enough for a very light dusting where he shoveled.

  15. 4 inches in Westwood. Residual light snow showers amount to a coating or less for the remainder of the morning as the trough swings through. Great forecast by TK and WxW.

  17. Thanks, TK.

    Just a few flakes falling here and there. Estimating about 3-1/2 inches of snow in Sudbury.

  18. TK, it wasn’t perfect, but we blew guidance out of the water on this event in SNE. Heaviest band was ~25 miles further north than I expected due to some mid-level warming and dry slotting cutting totals further south. And there was a 4-5″ bullseye on the South Shore, and Boston was able to sneak into the northern edge of that with 2-3″. But this is not the region-wide 6″ that basically all of the guidance would have led you to believe. Not to mention if you believed the models the whole region would still be seeing accumulating snow right now. It’s nice to get the forecast mostly right but to do it when literally all of the guidance is completely out to lunch feels good, because it doesn’t happen often since the models usually aren’t this bad. But you have to be ready for when they are!

  19. This is what makes me so angry. On the Uxbridge FB page from a local car dealership

    More snow than expected! Workers needed this morning at to clear snow off vehicles for our Presidents’ Day sales! Call …..blah, blah, blah

    Accordinf to his royal highness, Dr S, We have exactly what every met forecast yesterday morning.

  20. Just came in from clearing walk and drive.

    Just in time, Measure exactly 3.0 inches. Couldn’t muster a tenth in either direction.
    Temperature has just now reached the melting point.

    a tiny bit of snow in the air.

  25. WxW…
    Absolutely yes. Same with that initial band. I’ve found that when subsidence is involved and not completely overwhelming you’re going to see this.

  26. Another area of snow seems to be blossoming just SW of Boston to RI/CT borders.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.46304347826086956&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=355.72769953051636&centery=221.6431924882629&transx=-44.27230046948364&transy=-18.356807511737088&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=25841656&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  28. Amazing BDL with this latest snowfall is up to 27.5 inches for the season and not that far behind where the snowfall should be for this point in the season.

    1. This is why Logan should NOT represent Boston in climo stats. That difference in just a few miles (5-6) is insane!

  36. Anticipated Model Error…
    It worked okay today. Certainly not stellar.

    Pay attention though because one of the problems of the ECMWF that JMA always points out as being exposed again. the midweek system will be exiting faster than the European said, because as it often does it over amplified the system several days out.

  37. Thank you, TK.

    Very pretty snowfall. Reminded me of the periodic snowfalls I’d get when I lived in the Netherlands. And finally a SNE special, not that it was that special. But, at least for once SNE got snow and NNE very little.

  38. very light precipitation in the form of drizzle, when it increases a bit, light snow. Been that way for a few hours now.

    1. Hi Krista…..is this your first time posting? I apologize if not but do want to say it is great to see you here…..

      Woburn huh? I seem to think we have another individual from Woburn here as well 😉

  43. I am loving my new window in my bedroom it gives me a nice view of the marshland behind my house. Been in this room this entire holiday weekend as for the Second time this winter season I am sick, the past 2 days, throat is on fire, at least there is some nice snow falling. I think we have about 4 inches of snow so far here in Billerica but thats eye balling it.

  44. Yes understanding model error and being able to diagnose synoptic conditions certainly helped the forecast. Being able to access a model’s snowfall map is not a forecast tool.

    2-4 Pike and south with a few areas getting to 5 and 1-3 north of the pike worked well. I am sure a few of the 5″ amounts on the NWS list will somehow find their way to 6″…..

    Truth is if you had asked me Friday I would have said 1-2″ most areas. So as usual, I am no genius…

    Thursday will most likely be a bit colder, flatter and faster than has been modeled. Most models at 0.25-0.40 QPF with a 8-10 hour type event and impactful precip should be done by 6am-9am west to east. Even though it is colder, I would expect sleet and freezing rain to mix on this one keeping snowfall amounts down.

    1. Here in Back Bay 3.8 inches. Logan can’t be far off from that. If so, this winter will very likely not be posting the record for the least amount of snow, given that at least an inch or so should fall on Wednesday. It’s also very rare that March doesn’t deliver at least some snow. So Logan should get into the double digit territory.

      I went running while the snow was falling. A truly beautiful snowscape. It’s not been the winter I had hoped for, but days like today are precious. Add to that a sunny, brisk Sunday, and we had ourselves a winter weekend.

  48. Thanks for your report from “The West Side” Krista!

    For the others, she is not a first-timer, but just an occasional poster. 🙂

    1. Well one of us others is short in memory but very happy to see Krista posting.

      I’m still trying to recall who the other person is from Woburn

  51. Just looked at the 18z NAM. Definitely way colder than the GFS for the midweek system. It’s got 3 or 4 hours of snow, followed by 3 or 4 hours of sleet/frz rain, then ending as some rain showers across CT, RI and eastern MA. A few inches of accumulation most places. Starts by 7PM western CT to midnight Boston area and is pretty much done by 7-9AM Thurs AM.

    Seems plausible and similar to what JMA said above. If it verified, Thurs AM commute could be slick in many areas across interior SNE.

      1. You posted a similar one from that model last week showing about 75 low pressure centers over the western US. LOL.

  56. These bloopers from the 70s and 80s – WBZ TV – are fun. Lots of weather bloopers, with Barry, Bruce S, and Don Kent (between the 4th and 8th minute of the video). I have to say I find today’s presentations on TV too polished, too clean, almost contrived, compared to the spontaneity of yesteryear. Yes, I’m nostalgic.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClAd9F-uKd8

  57. BDL with 3.8 inches of snow today up to 28 inches for the season so certainly not going to be anywhere near least snowiest on record. I think there is a good shot they will exceed 30 inches for the season. Normal snowfall 40.5.

    1. They’ll be above 30″ most likely by end of the week. And I would not be surprised at all if they made a run at average. Still plenty of time left.

    1. Must be Marshfield Hills 🙂

      We did do well, there’s a solid 5″ here at my house, including a top layer of drier snow that fell late this afternoon.

    2. I’m afraid I might make it 2 in a row as I’ll be in southern Maine for the Wednesday night/Thursday system.

  61. Impressive opening period for my Boston Bruins in San Jose this evening, after a shut out win 3-0 in Anaheim and a 4-2 win in LA on Friday & Saturday, they are up 3-1 over the Sharks after 20 minutes. 🙂

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