Monday Forecast

141 Comments

7:23AM

COMMENTARY
It was about time I got hammered, oh not by snow, but by mother nature vividly telling me I blew that forecast. To be fair, I wasn’t the only one, even the ones with higher amounts still under-forecast amounts in some locations. But I’ll stand up as the worst-of-the-lot on this one. It was sorta like expecting a medium coffee and being forced to drink a large latte. And I’m not supposed to consume that much caffeine! Anyway, on we go, heart palpitations and all. We’ll chat in the comments about the specifics of how the storm unfolded as we go through the day, but first I’m going to quickly update the blog going forward, because no matter how bad the forecast was on this one, there is still weather coming up and I do remain fairly confident about the overall pattern at least in the short term.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)
What may very well be the biggest snowstorm of the season is making its exit but will do so with a little lingering snow this morning. Accumulation is basically a done deal except a little left to go to the southeast. And the cold air will take its time getting in, holding off until tonight, so that gives basically a full day for cleanup in which it is possible to get all paved surfaces clear, though many will remain wet so we’ll have to watch for ice forming on those areas tonight. Cold air then overtakes the region Tuesday on. We have 2 more system to watch, as mentioned yesterday, one bringing a risk of snow showers later Wednesday and another snow/mix threat later Friday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast morning with areas of snow tapering off west to east and only minor additional accumulation. Breaking clouds this afternoon with partial sun possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 0.
TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Slight risk of a brief snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon snow showers. Highs 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing snow flurry. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow/mix late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)
2 more unsettled weather threats centered around March 10 and 12, favoring mix/rain over snow. Temperatures start below normal then trend milder.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)
Temperatures start mild then trend colder. Unsettled weather most likely mid period, about March 15-16.

141 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Repost
    12.5 inches on the deck and grass here in north reading…about 10inches on the driveway..still showing lightly

    1. Safely out of that top 10, probably out of the top 15, and maybe out of the top 20. 😉

    2. You at work all right?

      Son said he got to work. He also said Roads from RI to Boston were atrocious.

      1. Yes Vicki, I made it in to work same time as usual. Snowed like crazy at the beginning of my commute though. Tough walking at times but thankfully no ice or slush. On the way home this afternoon (slush) and tomorrow morning (icy) a different story most likely. 🙂

  5. Thanks TK!

    Very impressive storm last night. Not anything historic or into far upper echelon territory, but a real solid thump of snow. And just like that, this winter goes from being below to well below average on snow to a very typical snow season. Exactly why we stress you can’t count winter over before it ends! That 12-18″ band really wasn’t that wide, it just nailed the high population area. Areas further west towards Worcester and west of there actually under-performed. But I had a feeling when I went to bed given the tremendous moisture surge we’d seen down here in the mid-Atlantic that there would be some big totals in SNE. Onto the cold, and this snow cover will help make it even colder. Yet another year where winter’s snow has come late, though I still feel good about a pattern change ~3/10.

    Oh, and lastly, today’s weather is brought to you by the letters M, J, and O. 😉

  6. Repost :
    Good morning all. Trying so hard for that foot but fell just shy. Measured 10 1/2” here in Sturbridge. the way things have gone this winter I’ll take it!! 🙂

  7. Couple bands of snow, moving WNW to ESE, behind the storm.

    One about to arrive in Boston,

    Both seem to be intensifying a bit.

    1. It’s here and still accumulating. Heading out to clean up and measure. 🙂

      I had gone back to sleep to catch up. 🙂

  10. Well I blew this one good. Even if I had bit on higher guidance I would have gone 6-9” not 10-15”

    Once is a while my model skeptic position eats me alive.

    I pride myself on correct forecasts for the areas where most people live and work. That’s why I get so mad when people find the odd amount to say look I got I right. And although I got it right in my backyard (4”) I so badly missed for areas of greater impact.

    Sorry folks and sorry to TK as I can’t help that my thinking influenced him into a forecast that he would have done better on if it wasn’t for my misgudied prognostications polluting is mind.

    1. My comment from this morning at the end of yesterday’s blog applies to you also. You can always have pride in your forecasts because you did your very best.

      ….and if anyone has something to say, please have them see me. It’s possible I am a bit protective 😉

  11. TK, you’re right many more times than you’re wrong.

    I thank you for all you do.

    Now, back to shoveling.

  12. Thank you TK! Mother Nature is always capable of tossing in a surprise here or there. Hold your head high and know that you do a great service to us all.

  13. I remember dismissing Barry B’s comment about 3 weeks ago that “in the next 4 weeks we’ll get our snow, and we’ll wind up close to average for the season.” How wrong was I to dismiss BB.

    1. I think you can dismiss “close to average for the season” though. Still a long way to go for that with very little time left, if any really. Next event (Sunday) is rain.

  16. Is everyone content now 🙂 🙂 🙂

    And, it’s going to stick around through at least Friday with the cold coming 🙂 🙂

    Can we all now come together and wish for a moderation and spring starting next weekend 🙂 🙂

    Please !!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. No I want to ski more which includes wachusett. I want a good pow day and yet to have it. Spring stinks anyway, allergies are terrible what people call spring weather or 60s and 70s dont usually happen till late april until then its to cool to do much but suck for skiing here in the NE. I say skip spring and go straight to the beach and pool weather

      1. Ok, I’m for going straight to summer. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Zoom past 40 to 60F and directly for 75F plus !!

        All in favor ?????

  17. Petition to rename this blog to the Woods Hill Patch. lmao

    Lets all hope that this is it for winter.

    1. I wouldn’t count on it. Been living in this area far too long for that.
      We can hope, but…….

  18. Thanks TK
    10 inches of snow where I am.
    In the battle of snow between BOS and NY BOS has widened its leading now having 25.7 inches of snow to NY which has 20.5 inches of snow.

  20. So far this winter for billerica. 34.8 inches. 11.5 inches with this storm, 9.4 with the storm back in november, so about 60% of my snow came in two storms this winter

  21. An observation ….

    So basically in 8 hrs, a fast paced storm system probably dropped 1 – 1.25 inches of melted precip during the cold season ……..

    Kinda gets my attention.

      1. Sucks for meteorlogists who have to answer to the public but for enthusiasts it’s fun to see something like this and postulate how to better predict something like this. I think no matter how improved models become, mother nature will find a way to go “surprise!”

        1. Indeed !

          TK, JMA, WxWatcher and all mets have been really good this cold season. With zero blocking, they have had to deal with an incredibly fast flow, making timing of disturbances tricky.

          Amazing how much foresight TK and WxWatcher have gathered from continually monitoring the MJO.

  22. JJ, in the snow department Boston almost always wins. I believe the last time NYC beat Boston was in the winter of 2009-2010. That’s the exception. Makes sense, of course, given Boston’s location (farther north and adjacent to colder water).

    But in baseball, overall, the Yankees have bested the Red Sox more often than not, in spite of a few successes in the past 15 years.

  23. JPD can you post your updated chart when you get a chance? I would be curious if Logan has been able to make it look at least halfway respectable.

  24. 11.5″ the final total here in Coventry, CT at my house though 13″ reported in the southeast part of town that got into the better banding.

    Unofficial Jackpot – Randolph, MA with an astonishing 18.7″

    Weymouth came in with 17.3″ and 21″ total on the ground.

    NWS Boston updated snow reports:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

    NWS Upton updated totals that include southern CT:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

    2. I am highly suspect of those South Boston and Dorchester totals.
      NO WAY we got that much here in JP. NO WAY!!!!

    3. Thanks, Mark. We have 13-17 measured in Sutton so the 13 in Sutton is fair – just not sure where it is. I’m also not sure if the 17 had snow cleared from Saturday. An Uxbridge measurement about 2-3 miles from here came in identical to mine at 15 even.

  27. Hey generally, forecasting has gotten so good, there are few surprises left. Nice to get one once and a while. Storm was pretty garden variety for Worcester Hills but cool to see what happened rest of area.

    1. 🙂

      Well put. It sure made my morning when I walked into livingroom and saw the table on the deck.

  29. Yeah with all the monitoring of MJO I’ve done it still bit me in the butt and I think left some teeth behind. Ouch. But it’s all good. We learn!

    By the way in case I didn’t mention it, 13.5 at my place in Woburn.

  30. 10.4 inches in Back Bay. Measured about 2 hours ago. There could have been some compacting already.

    Something tells me that we’re not nearly done for the season. In other words, I’ll believe the flip when I see it, and not until then.

    It’s remarkably dormant outside. Even the sparrows stopped chattering. Well, I did see one swearing “damn, I knew I shouldn’t have moved to Boston.”

  32. Ride to the office was a piece of cake.

    I would just like to reiterate what has been said.

    TK and JMA do an outstanding job and their degree of accuracy far surpasses any
    Met on TV, Including Eric and Harvey as good as they are.

    You can’t get them all right. The models have suffered from convective feedback in the past and with the convection going on to the south of this system, it would make
    sense to doubt those model projections. Unfortunately, this time around, the models
    were actually correct. Tough business and you 2 should be commended.

  33. Two things that help make for a shorter winter in NE; the patriots and TK and WHW. I just got in from clearing three driveways and a front walk. A fun night and AM with no school. Maybe an afternoon ski at Great Brook Farm in Carlisle. Thanks everyone who contributes to making this an awesome space.

  34. Looking ahead and not that the GFS is the be all./end all of models, but
    over the next 2+ weeks it looks pretty benign. Of course, that could change, but
    so far, so good. Some cutters on the way.

  35. I am just happy to have gotten one storm this winter where it was snow from start to finish. Assuming there is no more snow where the records are kept in CT at Bridgeport and Bradley snowfall won’t be that far from normal.

    1. I’ll still be 8-10 inches shy of “average” and the airport will be about 15-16 inches short,.

  36. No where is Boston now in terms of least snowiest winters on record. Top 15 now? I know there no longer top 10 least snowiest winters on record.

    1. I believe no longer in top 20 either. When I get home later this afternoon I can look up the exact number and post it here.

  40. Per obs :

    Logan : 1.06 inches melted
    Providence, RI : 1.20 inches melted
    Nantucket : 1.22 inches melted
    Worcester : 0.88 inches melted

  42. Even though temps may be in the mid-upper 30s for a few more hours, the dry air with dp’s falling into the teens and low 20s is going to bring the snow-melt or settling to an end.

    1. Speaking of that, when I arrived jome at 1pm, the snow had melted/compacted from
      11 1/4 inches to 8 inches.

  43. The next 3 days will look and feel like a winter trough in January with one notable difference; the sun angle.

    It’s hilarious to watch the squirrels out and about, diving into the snow and digging until they reach that prized nut. They’re stocking up for the next couple of days, so they an retreat to their tree cabins fully equipped with beds of multiple layers of leaves and dirt.

  46. Thanks for the support even in the face of a not-so-great forecast.

    The irony is back on February 14 I had a funny feeling about the first weekend of March. In the back of my mind I have been thinking all along that this may be finally be our period of time for a “big” one, at least relative to the ones we’ve had this season. There’s no way I could have told you then we’d be eyeing 3 systems between March 1 & 4, the first of which would produce a few flurries in far southwestern New England and an inch of snow in NYC, the second would be an under-performing daytime event, and the 3rd would be an over-performing convectively-fed snow bomb. Those will never be details we can know until a few days or even hours before they take place. I still feel good about having been able to sniff out the pattern to set us up for this. As WxW and I have said (and JMA when he chimes in), MJO was a confusing but important player. We’ve seen it come around to 3 favorable phases and even then we were not sure it was going to just automatically mean “snow time”. I alluded to having a time coming when I’m going to get slammed by a bad forecast this winter. And it happened finally. I’m kind of relieved actually. 🙂

    The frustrating part is last night my instinct was screaming at me when I saw that convection to the south, moving more north than east, even after having dismissed the model forecasts as over-done. When I upped my #’s (which some of you missed because it was late) I only went from 4-7 to 5-9, and my 2-4 became 3-5. I could have pulled the plug and went 2-4 islands, 4-8 South Coast, 8-15 elsewhere. Almost did it. Didn’t do it. Of course hindsight is 20/20 but that’s ok. This is where the learning process comes in. I’ll try to figure out now why the models, which often fail with CF, actually sniffed it out correctly this time even though the error looked like it was there. This is why I don’t mind failing at this. It is the surest way to keep yourself from feeling that you can’t be wrong, can’t just totally mess it up…

    Anyway back to your regularly scheduled afternoon. My shoveling is all done. Pavements are just damp. Some of them will ice up later but I have treatment if needed. I urge you all to use caution later as there will certainly be icy areas. We got some unseasonably cold March air coming on in shortly…

    1. Don’t beat yourself up to bad. You’re an awesome forecaster and you keep us informed and in line with real insight not #fakeweathernews. It’s nature and weather and I’m glad we haven’t conquered it and packaged for sale on Amazon yet.

  49. When I made my predictions for 2019 for weather I did say there would be a snow event when springs begins. If that model run pans out I will be right. My first two so far of Boston having six inches of snow at the end of January and a Valentine’s Day snowstorm did not pan out.

    1. I’m bullish on cold and snow the rest of this month. If I were picking stocks I’d buy the colder than normal and snowier than normal stock this month. That does not mean we won’t have spring teases and lots of melting at times. We always do in March. But it does mean more or less a repeat of last year. March and January have flipped. March is the new January, and January is the new March.

      1. I don’t quite see a repeat of last year where we had three coastal storms in a row to start the month and 12 snow events in interior SNE between March 2 and April 19. I ended up with 37″ of snow IMBY from March 2 on last year which was pretty epic. We don’t have a favorable pattern that could support something like that this year. But I agree that a few more snow events and shots of cold after this week are likely.

  52. Here is a 0Z model Kuchera snow projections vs actual. For Hartford, I had to use W. Hartford as I did not see a Hartford on the snow fall report so that one might be skewed a bit. Also, when I went to grab 0Z HRRR charts, I could not get them either on COD or pivotal and the links from the blog did not work (gone)

    https://imgur.com/a/3H92F8j

    1. Nice work! Lots of negative variances there across the board. If you used some other towns south and west of Boston that came in with the 15″+ totals, we would have seen even larger differences.

      1. One busted forecast and he throws the conservative forecasting style right out the window 🙂

          1. 11.5″ at my house. The 13″ report for Coventry on the NWS statement wasn’t me but it is entirely possible as the eastern side of town got into the better banding longer and likely picked up more.

    2. Weak storm passing to our south but we’ll be on the cold side so could produce a period of light snow. You’d think it would tend to strengthen some as it hits the coast and throw some accumulating snow our way but models are keeping it weak, at least for now.

  59. Tk I appreciate your daily forecast & blog that you post . I sincerely thank you for answering my many questions regarding the hospital during storms keeping me ahead of the game & all the help with my forecasting needs for all of my side work . You are 99% accurate most of the time so when a miss comes Along it’s all good . Again I sincerely thank you for providing this blog.

    3. You’re welcome. 🙂 I kick myself for misses but they are inevitable. You could see Pete B. grimacing on the air when talking about it. But it’s part of the deal.

      I hope you can enjoy a break and get some rest this week. A little quiet for a few days. Not sure about Friday yet but I’ll take a closer look at that during the week.

      1. I’ve chatted with Pete after a few misses. He lives by the same code you do, TK, and it eats at him. I think they all do but only know for sure about you and Pete. It’s why I react so strongly when folks criticize them. And I can promise that will never change. It’s my code 🙂

        1. pete B has been money this year. Don’t care what anybody says he is one of the best. And seems like an even better guy

          1. You are correct. I do watch and I do notice who’s on it and who isn’t. Pete has been quite good. You have to take the long range with a grain of salt. They are required to do a 10-day forecast. And they are probably also told to sound somewhat confident, knowing there are going to be times they are anything but. I would hate to be doing TV right now.

          2. He’s an awesome guy. Amont other times, He reached out to me after Mac passed away. Someone very close to him is a cancer survivor. He has a huge heart. I didn’t get a chance to talk to JR as much but he was always great to speak with.

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