Wednesday Forecast

87 Comments

7:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)
Cold air dominates the next few days with a west to northwest flow from southern Canada across the Great Lakes. Weak low pressure passes south of the region later Friday but should keep most of its precipitation (snow/mix) to the south of the region. Dry weather is back for the start of the weekend. The next storm system looks like a Great Lakes Cutter which may have just enough cold air to work with at the start for snow/mix at the onset but this looks like a mainly rain event as milder air will win out. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start and finish. Partly sunny in-between with a few snow flurries possible. Highs 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 9-16. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered light snow showers midday and afternoon. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow/mix late, favoring the South Coast. Highs 33-40. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM brief snow/mix to rain. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)
Fair, windy, colder March 11. Cold with possible snow showers March 12 from an upper disturbance. Dry, moderating temperatures March 13-14. Unsure on timing but may turn cooler and unsettled by March 15.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)
Up and down temps and several bouts of unsettled weather are possible during a transitional pattern, or a battle between milder air to the southeast and more cold air wanting to come out of Canada.

87 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. With this I will have to concur.
      There are indications that this will occur.

      There’s no 3rd line to that poem however because in order to do that I’d have to find a word to rhyme with the ones that ended the first 2 lines otherwise it would look weird… 😉 And then if I was able to I’d have to find a 4th line for balance, or come up with a different rhyme but it’s too damn early to write a poem anyway. 😉

  8. Philip, and others of course, I noticed an interestingly odd pattern to the snow both on my deck and in some areas of the yard. I asked TK on FB and he explained a combination of compression and sublimation. The wise person I mentioned in regard to sublimation yesterday was of course TK

    I thought you’d be interested since you brought up the topic

    https://imgur.com/a/ow9tqqi

        1. Good description. Pretty cook, isn’t it? I just noticed it on a lot of lawns in the neighborhood. It seems to be mostly on the areas that have a slope. TK??

    1. Interesting…thanks
      The social aspect…hmm…. me thinks there is more at play here and you have
      to read well between the lines to figure out what I mean.

    2. Very interesting article, Captain. Thank you.

      My thoughts as I read – One of my first thoughts was some folks in less affluent areas may not have access to a warning device. And people in those areas are more susceptible because many are in mobile homes. Another immediate thought was ….and you’ll be surprised when I say this…people do not listen. Yes, it is a high rate of error…….to me long before having the pleasure to be part of this blog, you listen anyway because you know weather is anything but an exact science. It takes so little time and energy to pay attention. And my last is what seems to be man’s need to prove stronger than anything bigger than himself. Very loosely, I see that in the horse community So many people mistreat horses to force them into some sort of submission. As I said, very loosely.

      Education might help…..I’m not convinced.

      JPD – I am interested in what you read between the lines. These were obvious to my way of thinking but I suspect I am missing someting

            1. I was commenting from my perspective. I knew I’d missed yours since my takes are all very obvious.

              You planning to give it up at some point or waiting for someone to ferret it out 😉

                1. Think about this line from
                  the article:

                  Even though they are told to get out, studies show mobile home dwellers still “shelter in place,”

                2. You didn’t answer my question 😉 Remember, I am literal !!!! But I’ll read again so don’t share unless of course you want to. I Need to run out. This is fun. And if anyone comes up with it before I return……….fair warning 😈

                3. I did address that on the surface and too vaguely. It is what was on my mind when I said education is not going to work.

                  I see didn’t go far enough. I don’t believe they will go away. Providing inhabitants with an early warning system seems to be a nonstarter. They have no option. So what is the alternative.

                  Research to stabilize mobile homes? Cost of home would increase.

                  You and I discussed tornado cellars a ways back. I know the newer ones are ridiculously expensive but wonder if one that will accommodate all in a mobile home park would work. Except in many of these areas, the soil is clay or sand and won’t support a cellar.

  12. I’ll think about posting my thoughts on the article, but my excerpt above should
    reveal some insight as to my leaning on this.

  14. 12Z GFS is finally cranking. It must have slept through the alarm.

    Shows a very near miss or very slight graze for early Sat morning and shows
    some front end snow for Sunday.

  15. I have family that live in mobile homes in Alabama and I’ve been there multiple times. You mainly get warned by the TV down there for storms and I didn’t see one mobile home without a tv down there. But most just shrug off warnings and have the thinking that forecasters are blowing things out of proportion – which was laid bare for me by a few lifelong multigeneration of residents there when I mentioned weather and snow. (Side note – biggest hail I’ve ever experienced was in alabama. I was worried about the rental car – it sounded like rocks were hitting the car and I wasn’t even prepared for such a storm. Go figure.)

    1. Interesting – you confirmed my thoughts. Did you not know about hail because of lack of warning or lack of access (or use of access) to warning?

      1. I had the radio on and there was no warning on the radio at least. I alao had my cell phone but this was 2015 for the hail storm and I’m not sure if the warning system worked on all phones as it does now. This was a zero visability half hour duration pounding dangerous hailstorm.

        1. Wow.

          I never got a warning for the tornado that passed a couple of miles from here several months ago.

          I did just get a warning that I would get 8 inches of snow in the next few hours from radar scope. Hmmmm

  18. I won’t be posting much over the next several days as we are heading up to Jay Peak VT tomorrow PM for a long weekend (kids have no school Friday for a staff development day!) Jay has now received over 330″ of snow on the year and is 100% open so I’m pretty excited about that. Weather is looking sunny with highs in the low 20’s Fri/Sat. and Sunday looks like an all-out snowstorm up there so perhaps we’ll get a little powder skiing in as well before we leave. I’ll try and post some pics!

  19. It’s ‘Venture Time! As in let’s venture out on that limb again and try to nail down some future events…

    Today’s “glaciated” cumulus clouds are producing snow flakes but many of them are not reaching the ground. Still run the risk of a few snow showers through about sunset before it goes poof.

    Kind of a repeat tomorrow, maybe less blustery than today has been and perhaps the temp may be up a few degrees as well in the afternoon.

    Friday to early Saturday system looks almost identical to the one that took pretty much the same track exactly one week prior, almost to the hour.

    Sunday system: Brief snow at start, in fact it could actually snow moderately for a short time causing some people to unnecessarily “freak out” (I hate that term) before it’s just raining. Might see some localized flooding not because we’re going to have tremendous rain but because the ground is frozen and some of the drains may still be blocked. Hopefully not a big issue.

    Breezy but not that cold behind the system Monday, until a secondary front goes by. I’m wondering if we may end up with another sneaky snow squall event or rain to snow shower event sometime later Monday as there will possibly be some strong upper support for it. Something to watch. Cold Tuesday with upper low – lots of clouds and a risk of snow showers, which may be aided by a partially onshore wind. Something else to watch.

    Midweek warm-up next week will be brief and may literally last about 24 hours, depending on the speed of the next system. I’m favoring the faster GFS over the EuroSnail model, which is probably over-amping things again. So the unsettled day will probably be March 15 and set us up for a somewhat drier but chilly March 16-17 weekend.

    Then perhaps an interesting pattern around the Vernal Equinox that allows a couple chances for some late significant snow. But will get into that if it actually looks like this again in a few days.

    2. Thanks TK. After looking at the models today, still liking our chances for some wintry weather in that 3/16-3/23 period. We’ll see. It would be quite ironic if we pulled out a near average snow season after all of this.

        1. That would make it 33-34 inches. A couple months ago, who knew Boston would even be that close? 😉

          1. I would not have counted it out then any more than now. It’s quite possible.

      1. Oh great another call in third weekend if so . On another note I think I’m going to Philadelphia next weekend ( first time .

    1. March 28? 1984. Never sure on exact date. Son was a few weeks old so I was focused on something else. It is the storm that reminds me most of the Halloween storm. The thud of huge limbs falling and the sharp arc of lines before power went out. We were out for four…maybe five days. It is an awesome memory.

  23. My favorite March storm March 8 2013. Not talked about a lot but fascinating for so many reasons. The highly anamolous 400 mile fetch of snowfall from a giant storm way SE of SNE. 13” of snow in Boston on 0.5 of QPF. Yet is was warm enough to rain in
    Barnstable County where they got 1-3”. PVD got 2”. There was snow hole in RI filled in with 22” of snow in Worcester the down to 4-6” in the CT Rvr Valley. Then 15” the suburbs east of Hartford but only 4” at BDL.

    It was one the most impossible to predict outcomes I can ever remember.

    As for the set up Mark shows above for the 3rd week of March.
    Yes on that day shown it could be cold, but it’s depicting a fast flow with no blocking. Not one for big snow in my opinion.

    My humble prediction – lots of variability with no prolonged warm up or prolonged below average period of temps coming.

    1. I do recall that storm. I do not have same perspective as you which is why 1984 stands out. There was a fairly good storm on the 13th of that month. 1993 stands out also. Sons 9th birthday. And close to JJs ninth if I’m not mistaken.

    2. I remember that storm vividly. I received 20” of snow out of it in Coventry and there was a huge drop off in amounts just to my west. Really bizarre setup as you described. Most people forget about it because it is overshadowed by the February blizzard that year. 52” of snow just between those two storms for me really made that winter.

  24. By the way that’s 26:1 at Logan in a storm that had rain on the Cape! Also 30” at Blue Hill

    1. I remember that well! My favorite March storm was early March 2001 (don’t recall the exact date). Played in a tournament in Philly…60 degrees on Saturday—30s and heavy snow on Sunday. Drove back to Boston at like 30 mph tops

          1. Hmm. At six I suspect i was thoroughly enjoying it. But I don’t recall so I have to stay with ones that have memories.

            Quite a month March is

    1. Thanks TK. I am typically off on that one by a day and the year for the May 9 which I tend to think of as 1978 but now know is 1977.

      Hmmmm I should remember it since the April 1987 storm was 29th

  27. As a remarkably random thought….a question on jeopardy reminded me of hearing sonic booms as a child. When did they disappear?

    1. Speaking of Jeopardy, Alex Trebek has been diagnosed with stage 4 pancreatic cancer and the prognosis is not good as the survival rate is 7%. 🙁

  28. Harvey left the impression of a decent thump of snow even for Boston on Sunday morning before the changeover.

    1. I did not get that impression whatsoever. He indicated that some accumulation may work its way into Boston with the precipitation starting as snow then changing to mix then rain.

  29. Seeing that the 00z ECMWF/GFS/NAM are advertising about 0.25 of QPF system
    total for Boston – I think thump might be more like a touch…

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