Sunday Forecast

110 Comments

3:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)
Reminder: If you have clocks that don’t automatically set themselves, make sure you moved them ahead 1 hour for the start of Daylight Savings Time, which begins at the moment this blog update was posted! A brief bout of wintry precipitation for parts of the region this morning as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes and send an arm of moisture across New England, initially bumping into retreating cold air. Once this gets by the region, drier air will return behind the system Monday, although it will take a while for cold air to arrive so it will be on the milder side during the day Monday. By Tuesday, upper level low pressure crosses the region, possibly producing some snow showers to start, otherwise dry and colder air will dominate. The chill will ease by later Wednesday as it remains dry. High pressure slides to the East Coast and allows a warm-up by Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Mix/rain south, snow/sleet north with accumulation of a coating to 1 inch, but locally up to 2 inches north central MA and southwestern NH. Precipitation changing to rain south to north late morning and midday then tapering off to rain showers and drizzle from west to east late in the day. Areas of fog. Highs 37-44. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH interior and up to 30 MPH coast.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Early rain showers and drizzle possible. Patchy fog evening. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with a risk of snow showers, then partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)
A mild Ides of March with rain showers, then a cold front passes and re-introduces colder air to the region over the March 16-17 weekend, continuing into early next week. Will have to watch for the potential of some storminess that can produce frozen precipitation as well.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)
This period will also feature colder than normal temperatures with a potential for some wintry precipitation 1 or 2 times.

110 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. Your precip should arrive as snow/sleet within 1/2 hour then switch to rain within an hour after onset. Forecast remains the same (only timing is a bit later for arrival).

  6. Thank you, TK.

    The very gradual melt thus far has been good as I’ve had no leaking walls this week. This will change tomorrow. I think by week’s end most of the snow will be gone except for remnants of piles and snow banks. Perhaps starting next week we can build up another `snow pack.’

    As I walked back to my apartment from an evening out with friends I noticed some black ice and still a number of slippery sidewalks in spots. When I got home I saw that the temperature was 34F. Clearly, there was some re-freezing going on at the surface, however. On Dutch weather forecasts they speak of “ground frost.” In fact, they warn cyclists and pedestrians about it. I hardly ever hear that term here. This is too bad as it is informative and applicable. The temperature may be close to freezing, say, 34 or 35, yet there’s frost on the ground or surface.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    As an old friend once called it, it’s snowing like Cuckoo Birds!
    I mean it’s coming down in buckets here. Closing in on an inch already.

    Late night, so just getting up now. Have to go out in a while, so will get a measurement soon. 🙂

    1. It’s just a salter won’t be a ton to measure . Goes from light to heavy to light and so on in medical area .

        1. Thanks for thinking of me Vicki. Funny story, the overnight security officer I was relieving wondered why I was arriving so early. The clocks around him at the desk were still on standard time. We had a good laugh about it. 🙂

          Good to know Vicki that FL is considering doing away with this DST nonsense. Maybe others will join in as well.

    4. Definitely the best upper pattern all winter for a snowstorm, if there’s a disturbance and the east coast trof is set up in the right place, etc ….

  15. We moved out of the nothing hole and now moderate sleet rapping at the windows with perhaps a bit of rain mixed in. Love the sound

  17. Meteorological spring …. check

    Daylight savings time and 6:45pm sunsets ….. check

    March 10th, approaching 12 hrs of sunlight and a 45 degree sun angle .. check

    Worst winter weather stretch of entire season in New England … of course 🙁 !!

    1. Daylight savings time…Boooooooooooooo!

      6:45 sunset….ok I guess. Still rather have the am light though. 🙂

  20. Snow size is now big and fluffy. Temp says 34. Should changeover soon so I guess shoveling should begin now.

  21. Thanks TK. March 10 is a day I’ve mentioned for awhile as potentially representing the “end of winter” for this season. It’s worked out to be a transition date away from the recent cold pattern and into a warmer one for the next several days. But it looks like the spring pattern is not going to stick, at least not yet, and that the next week will be more of a spring preview than a permanent change. The period from ~3/17-3/25 looks mostly below average, as the PNA turns positive for the first time in awhile. I do think it will be a short lived colder spell and that we’re still tracking for a warm end of March and especially April.

    That next cooler spell also looks more dry to me as opposed to wet/snowy. As depicted now, it’s close to being a favorable upper air setup, but the western ridge and eastern trough both may set up a little too far east, such that the prevailing longwave trough axis is too close to the East Coast and the storms develop out to sea. Also, no blocking, which is usually more of a factor for getting snow this time of year. Continued +AO/+NAO. So there’s some limiting factors which may prevent much wintry weather, but we’ll see.

      1. Geez it’s about someone calls someone ELSE a DD 😛 .. I’ve been called that about a dozen times this week, but mostly by people who are (again) somehow mistaken that spring begins before winter ends. I don’t get that. Every year, the same thing. Early to mid March is NOT SPRING. It’s WINTER! 😀

  23. Just surpassed 1 inch here. Snow much lighter now. We started as a mix of snow/sleet, then went to all snow, now it mixes as it lightens up which is typical. There was some amount of d.c. going on and the rate of the precip. got me a couple more tenths than I forecast here. OH BOY. I missed by 0.2 inch! Terrible! 😉

  24. Snow changed to sleet at 10:42.
    Measured 1.25 inches. Now we see if we can add a tenth of sleet???

  25. I’m not going to trash the NWS but I do think they should have issued that advisory further east. Even if conditions are treacherous for an hour in a given location (here for example, it was nasty for about 1/2 hour but now just wet roads), it’s still bad enough that it should be advised. Even with the 1 or 2 inches of snow they had forecast for metro Boston, with it coming in just a couple hours’ time I think that would warrant an advisory. Sometimes I still think there is old fashioned thinking ongoing there and they still need to re-visit how they issue some things.

  26. We have light snow falling now just southwest of the summit of Woods Hill, and to borrow a special observation from Trinidad Colorado that I saw back in the mid 1980s on their airport ob: “SNO OCNL MIXTURE OF GREAT BIG FLAKES AND LITTLE BITTY FLAKES” (sic)

    1. You have, you just don’t remember it. 🙂 It happens fairly regularly in a set-up like this.

        1. Mixing of air. It doesn’t always come in uniformly. Sometimes you have it in bubbles of warmer and colder mixed at first. Depends on how it’s advecting, what level, speed, etc.

  28. With the obs last hour showing Blue Hill at 29 and Worcester at 28 with everyone else in SNE in the lower to middle 30s that shows you the colder air just above that was waiting. It’s only a small indication but it’s likely much colder just above that (or was). Warming rapidly up there now. And now without the intensity of the first burst even areas that hold onto the snow a bit longer can’t really add much to their accumulation because of the March daylight effect.

  29. WxW .. I agree with your points above. And I cautiously lean toward the drier idea but all it’s going to take is one rope wiggle of the jet stream and we can get one system coming along to dump some winter white and/or ice.

  31. Average monthly temp at Logan (averaging in high and low temps)

    December 2018 : 37.3F
    January 2019 : 30.8F
    February 2019 : 33.5F
    First 9 days of March 2019 : 29.6F ………

    1. Nice chilly start, but a lot of the negative anomaly will get eaten away later this coming week.

      1. If you’re in a cold (or warm) pattern, the anomaly always looks larger when the month is only partial, especially 10 days or less. I remember starting a month not so long ago with a warm stretch and the positive anomaly was like 15 degrees through 8 or 10 days. Where we started March with all colder than normal days except one through 9 days, this is pretty much how one would expect it to look.

  32. Ice is pelting my window. Moderate/Heavy sleet here in Billerica. Was a snow/sleet mix for most of the morning.

  33. It’s still going to take 1 to 2 hours to get everyone switched over, lastly in southern NH.

    1. I’m switched over as well. Light rain now. Roads have gone to wet (main) and light slush (side) at this point.

  35. AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. What is the record snowiest single day in March in Boston?
    A) 9.9″ 3/4/2019
    B) 12″ 3/4/1891
    C) 13.2″ 3/9/1956
    D) 14.5″ 3/13/2018

    2. What date do Boston’s average high temperatures reach 50F? (not sure I like this question)
    A) March 10th
    B) March 17th
    C) March 0th
    D) April 1st

    Answers later today.

        2. If that is the case, then the answer is D. 4/1.
          When I answered, my mind did not see 4/1 so I selected
          the latest date in March. One could argue 3/3o or 3/31 IF rounding were allowed/considered. :D)

    2. D and D

      And I did buy some B and B, Longshot. Forgot how smooth it is. I’ll have to go to DD tomorrow I guess

  37. Just watched The Greatest Showman. Really enjoyable movie….awesome music. Need to watch again with surround which I foolishly forgot to do

    1. The snow total at Logan looking a lot more respectable now. Let’s see if they could get to the 30 inch mark.

      1. And that is a truly BOGUS total! Totally and completely bogus
        and USELESS!!!!!! Does NOT represent the city in any way shape or manner.

  39. Still a solid light to medium rain here. Also still flirting with freezing. 33 now but varying from 31-33

  40. Interesting setup at hr 240 on today’s 12z euro.

    Would have liked to have seen what it did with that in the 264 hr time frame.

  41. My goodness my feet are cold. It’s one of those days that you can’t warm up, even if you’re inside. I find raw and damp weather has a much colder feel than, say, 20s and sunny.

    1. I’ve often found that to be the case, and even though I don’t really run that cold, I can feel it today. I have this little mini space heater (electric and quite safe and never left unattended) that really does a good job getting that chill out of the air in whatever room I’m in. 🙂

  43. Today is a reminder that comes all too frequently on how sh**ty the climate is here for most of the year

    1. It’s an awesome day. Fire is one. Coffee early and then tea. Almost time for a glass of something else. I never watch two movies in one day. And about to pick up clams from a fun clam type hamburger place that just opened for the season.

        1. No. I don’t think we have one. Pirates Cove in Whitinsville. I was surprised they were open. Owner and I chatted a bit. She knew customers would be slim but I think knows a lot of people waited for them to open so she said she’d be the one to work. It’s a good part of why I like them. They respect community and staff

      1. I gotta tell you TK by this time of year I’m so done with cold, gray, wet feet and so on. There’s just too many months of it. 45 to 60 days less of it would suit me.

        1. Kind of a negative is the fact we had a relatively easy winter is we still had a lot of systems passing through. The large scale indicies (PNA, QBO, ENSO, NAO, MJO) all combined to make sure we had no shortage of low pressure waves coming along. At one point the “pineapple express” stretched all the way back to Australia!

      2. Yes I definitely get it.

        I was cold today also. Heat is three degrees above where it always is.

        But it is a day that gives permission to bundle up and enjoy just being.

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