Wednesday Forecast

107 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)
A storm cut off from the jet stream will do a cyclonic loop south of New England over the next few days, impacting our weather into Saturday, with peak impact Thursday/Friday when southeastern New England will see its heaviest rain and strongest wind, and also coastal issues with areas of moderate flooding. This system pulls away during the weekend and and westerly air flow returns by Sunday. Highlights of storm impact will be 1-3 inches of rain possible over much of the area, except less in southern NH and pockets of above 3 inches possible in southeastern MA and RI where some flooding may occur. However with recent dry weather and low water levels in rivers, etc. the flooding will not be as bad had we been wetter leading up to this event. Coastal flooding is most likely along east-facing shores and closest to high tide times. Wind impacts will be mainly to old trees, which is often the case around here these days, but this leads to a power outage risk. Wind gusts will be strongest in coastal and southeastern areas. The storm center itself will not be particularly intense, but its the pressure gradient between it and a large high pressure area in southeastern Canada that will create the wind.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding up. Periods of rain pushing into southern and eastern MA, RI and eastern CT. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, heaviest southeastern MA/RI. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, gusts over 30 MPH especially coastal areas.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, heavy at times favoring southeastern areas. Highs 52-59. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, stronger gusts especially coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing rain showers possible. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)
Air flow becomes more westerly for this 5-day period with dry weather October 13, a disturbance from the west possibly bringing a few showers October 14-15, then dry weather after that. Temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)
The west to east flow will continue until about the middle of this period before we may see another set-up with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Not a high confidence forecast.

107 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Your forecast, as always, is measured and calming.

    The NWS long range discussion this morning is less so.

    1. Well the media has a tendency to make everybody think this is the end of days. I won’t do it. 😉

        1. It’s still “media”. Just not local TV/radio media. Just a different source. I don’t think they are too bad today, but maybe a touch over the top.

  3. FTR, I had a better blog written, about twice as long and more descriptive, but a computer issue wiped out the entire thing and I had to re-write what you see above in about 15 minutes time. Ah well. 😉

    I left out the part about the Patriots home game. You can figure that out… 😛

  7. Checking in again. Remains dry in the city. In fact, I caught a glimpse of the sun
    on the way in this morning, however, clouds are slowly on the advance. Rain is
    near. We shall see when it starts. I am guessing around 10ish in the city.

  9. It was raining in pembroke this morning when I left just after 5. Looks like all of area down through the cape is going to get a good hit . Taking down Halloween decorations as a precaution.

    2. Yup and it is closing in on the city as I can see heavy rain elements off shore
      beginning to rotate in.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    Does look like a lot of rain for Boston in the coming days. But, certainly not Armaggedon.

    Bruins are doing now what the Red Sox should have done at the beginning of their season: Win games on the road. I’m impressed by Cassidy’s preparation. I was not impressed by Cora’s preparation.

    Paradoxically, while baseball wanes in popularity the quality of play improves and 3 out of 4 division series are very compelling. The same cannot be said for football, where the quality of play is mostly abysmal and the sport becomes ever more popular.

    I’m rooting for the Nationals, Braves, and Rays in the deciding games of their respective series. Was hoping the Twins (twinkies) could at least manage to challenge the Yankees. Alas, post-season ineptitude continues for Minnesota. But, at least Minnesota as a small market team was in the post-season, as were Oakland and Milwaukee. And, we see in the Rays how having an excellent organizational structure matters more than money (this applies to any sports team, for that matter).

    1. Cora lost his way this year. I have a feeling he thought that it would
      magically happen again. 🙂 🙂

  11. FWIW, the 12Z NAM has slowed things down (and potentially reduced rain totals, we shall see on that as run is no where near complete).
    Shows 1/2 inch for Boston through 11AM tomorrow.
    Watching the run.

  12. Looking more like rain in the city, but still dry. I missed my 10ish prediction. 🙂

    Although it is not super windy, there is a noticeable decent breeze out there.
    Looks pretty threatening now.

    1. Excellent observation about the tight precip gradient on the NW side.

      Looks like there’s model agreement on an excessive rainfall event in Plymouth County.

  20. We have had a steady rain here most of the day in Manchester CT. In fact, it has been downright pouring for several hours in areas west of the CT River. There seems to be a convergence area over the State and pretty much no movement to the area of rain over us.

    It’s cold raw and nasty out there. Of course, we are still playing soccer apparently!

  21. Don’t have access to EURO rainfall projections.

    Looking at the projected 850 mb jet on the 12z run, looks like a strong easterly 850 mb jet over some of the same areas on other models that are showing excessive rainfall amounts.

    I’d assume the EURO has hefty rainfall totals in SE Mass as well, possibly into RI and eastern CT.

  23. Some Wind Gusts across the area. No big deal yet, anyway.

    https://imgur.com/a/KHhFTpw

    I may be a bit premature, but I am seriously wondering if this things is going to under
    achieve and NOT live up to the hype. Would be typical, if you ask me.

    1. I don’t feel like this has been hyped, or maybe I am missing something. My Facebook feed is not filled with weather posts and Twitter hasn’t been overly busy either. But this, of course, is just my humble opinion.

      2. I think he just means the relative hype.

        It has not carried the extreme hype we see with a lot of situations.

        But yesterday the media started hitting it kind of hard so he’s probably referring to that.

            1. This morning and at noon, Ch. 7 had 3-6” for SE Ma/Cape with up to 3” for Boston. If that’s not hype I don’t know what is.

              Imagine if this was in January.

  24. I can say one thing for certain….
    Comparing current NAM (18Z so far and 12Z) they don’t hold a candle to yesterday’s
    NAM runs up to and including the 6Z run.
    The Northern extent of the rain and thus the intensity is South by at least 50 miles, if
    not more.

    I smell BUST all over the place!!

  26. 18Z NAM is way down on rain amounts and even has a complete shut off of the rain
    for the entire Patriot’s game.

    I am now officially UNIMPRESSED!!

    1. My brother, nephew, and a couple of relatives on my brother’s wife’s side of the family would be very happy if the rain shut off for much of the game. 😉

    1. That AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN, especially up this way. Far South shore,
      Cape and Islands, those totals may be realized or come close. Up here, no way.

      1. I don’t think Boston was in the the high zone to begin with . Rain yes but not as much as south .

  28. Any rain event that underperforms is perfectly fine with me. 🙂

    TK – What does Friday commute look like between 5-7 AM?

    3. I think Friday AM’s commute will still be wet and windy, but not a driving heavy rainfall with gales or anything like that. Probably light rain but a moderate drizzle combo, so pretty soaking nonetheless, with NE wind 15-25 MPH and a temp around 50. That’ll chill the bones a tad.

  29. TK, hope you’re feeling well.

    It’s been raining cats and dogs in Back Bay. Had to canoe down Beacon Street. Intense storm. … Of course, I’m kidding. It hasn’t rained more than a couple of drops. Furthermore, the air actually feels drier now than it did several hours ago. Will it rain? Yes. But, I think TK nailed this one many days ago, with the locus of most of the rain and wind on the south coast, CC, and the islands. And, I do think the hype train was active on this long duration event. I bought into it. I shouldn’t look at another weather forecast on TV.

    A friend of mine from England is visiting and told me that if someone from overseas lands at Logan and the U.S. for the first time, arrives at his or her hotel and turns on the local news paranoia might strike that person. You’re deluged with really negative local news: From murder to murder to murder, to fire to fire, to gas explosion, to scandal. Then, just when you think you can relax you see the words “Storm Force” on the screen, and you hear “get ready for a major nor’easter, with flooding, gales …” As my friend said, some people might think it’s Armageddon. I’m immune to it because I live here and am accustomed to it. But, I do get what my English friend was saying. Hype and sensational news reporting really drive the local news.

    2. While I am tired at what my body endured yesterday and the effect of having to double the dose of my “emergency” heart meds, I am feeling much better today.

        1. Yes. It’s been kind of a rough several days for myself and some people close to me, so it’s been tiring…

  30. Yeah, I was just driving home with my son and WBZ was translating NWS forecasts of “up to 10 inches of rain in Plymouth County” … Kewl.

      1. Kewl is one of my ways of saying “cool” and shrugging my shoulders. I am holding my tongue basically. 😉

      1. 🙂 🙂

        NWS called the Euro an Outlier, when, in fact, it “may” have
        been spot on. 🙁 🙁

  32. As I indicated a couple of days ago, I don’t think this event has been hyped at all. In fact, I wish all events were handled this way, a gradual build-up as opposed to full on hype a week or more in advance. We can’t hope for that to hold true once snow gets into the mix, however.

    I’d also discourage performing a complete verification on day 1 of what will be a 3-4 day storm. I don’t expect many areas to see more than 4″ of rain, and it’s coming over several days, so this is far from a flash flooding issue. But did anyone really expect the 10-15″ totals that some models were showing? How often if ever has that happened in SNE? Finally, keep in mind that impacts for coastal communities could be significantly greater than for those inland, and that rain is not the only hazard from this storm. Don’t confuse messaging for high impacts on the coast as being calls for high impacts everywhere.

    Here in NJ, we’re missing most of the rain (though today has been downright miserable with constant light rain and very cool temperatures). However, we may come off the worst in terms of coastal flooding impacts. The current projections for high end moderate flooding are concerning. I start a lengthy stretch of overnight shifts tonight, so the coastal flood concerns will be my primary focus for the next couple of days.

    1. I was referring to the hype as it was here locally (not overly-hyped necessarily). The local media did (on some stations) make it sound like it was going to be quite bad across the entire region and I feel did not do enough highlighting of the areas to be most effected. Others did a much better job. I watched everybody as I was pretty confined to not being very physically active most of yesterday, due to my heart issue. And I can assure you I am not confusing anything. 😉 If you look at my forecast above, I think I gave this a reasonable advertisement for what we can expect here, especially since I had already written a much bigger blog that got wiped out by my computer and I had 15 minutes to rewrite something that was readable. 😉

      1. And to add something… everybody knows I am HIGHLY against verifying an event before it happens. If I felt this was going to be a “nothing” event, I’d have written that in my forecast above. 🙂

      2. Definitely wasn’t trying to come after you! And you can attest better than I on the true hype factor, since I don’t see the Boston media. Generally there’s a good correlation between social media hype and broadcast media hype, and it’s been unusually measured on the social side of things. I think there remain some unknowns with this, since it’s not a type of setup there’s an especially large historical sample for.

        Hope you’re feeling better also 🙂

        1. I know you weren’t. Just explaining my point of view on it. I am feeling better. Just really really tired… Thanks!

    2. If you are speaking to me, I am still not impressed. I am not easily impressed by weather events, so this one doesn’t come close imho. But, we shall see.

  33. I’ll be heading out for much of the evening as I have some things to take care of. I’ll try to check in mobile especially once we get to the 00z runs.

    Have a party. 😉

  34. Well, what do you know? It has started to rain in Boston.
    Still has NOT tripped my rain gauge, however.

  35. To already illustrate the gradient, Logan and JpDave appear to be at 0.00, while Plymouth is at .55

    I don’t think marshfield is far behind Plymouth, I’d guess .35 to .4

    It’s a steady rain at the moment, adding to our totals down here.

    1. He also has a possible lull during the Patriots game tomorrow night. That should cut down on fumbles if nothing else.

  38. Caught Pete briefly. He seems pretty much in the same camp I am. #’s for both rainfall & wind were pretty much identical to what I am expecting.

  41. Checking in with an unofficial 0.45″
    Unofficial as a blue jay landed on my rain gauge and tipped it over. 🙂

    It’s quite close to what Tom has, so I think it’s okay.

    Good night, y’all.

  43. Upon review of 00z info so far…

    nothing more than minor coastal flooding at high tide times with the exception of Nantucket which may have moderate flooding Thursday p.m.

    No changes otherwise except maybe to trim rain totals back just a bit especially north and west.

  44. So is it fair to say that whoever runs Patch is a moron (or a set of morons)? Yes, 100% fair.

    This piece of bullcrap they spun off an already over-done NWS forecast is about as bad as it gets. Here’s a link to the pathetic display of hype… https://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/ma-weather-multi-day-noreaster-starts-today-will-be-doozy?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=blasts&utm_medium=social&utm_content=massachusetts&fbclid=IwAR2fEE2eWnntfF9q50i1lG1r90AWLCkKv3gcMgi927ZxT9M0UKsa4fK_xoI

    1. Dry ground here. Cloudy, except that nice clear blue strip which has seemed to expand a bit the last hour in the NW.

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