Tuesday Forecast

93 Comments

6:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)
The cold front that went through the region with fairly widespread showers Monday evening has settled just to the south of the region, and while today is cooler and drier, the sky condition will range from mostly cloudy along the South Coast to at least partly sunny over northern MA and southern NH. Some lingering rain will dry up as it moves southeastward across the region during early to mid morning. High pressure will build across southeastern Canada through midweek and as this happens, an ocean storm will form well south of New England. This is a difficult set-up to forecast, as the storm will be in a region removed from the stronger jet stream steering, so its path is rather difficult to foretell. We’ve seen computer guidance range from a scenario that shows not much impact other than a gusty breeze and a little rain in southern areas, to a more direct impact of stronger wind and several days of wet weather. At this time, I’m leaning toward a scenario somewhere in between, but with a leaning toward a more southerly placement of the storm and less significant impact here. This will still have to be closely monitored. The time frame should be in the Wednesday night to Saturday morning time frame, with Thursday/Friday the 2 most likely days for the most direct impact. Will get more detailed on the next blog post…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy South Coast. Partly sunny elsewhere. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Highs 56-63. Wind E 10-20 MPH except 20-35 MPH South Coast.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy with periods of rain Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy except mostly cloudy with a chance of rain Cape Cod. Lows 40-47. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Westerly flow for this period, risk of a few passing rain showers at times early and again at end of period otherwise generally dry with temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)
The west to east flow will continue until about the middle of this period before we may see another set-up with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Not a high confidence forecast.

93 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. I just had somebody throw in my face a missed snowfall forecast from a few years ago and basically tell me The Farmers Almanac is to be trusted more than a meteorologist. I’ve noticed a lot of people reaching a new level of a-holeness lately. Funny.

    Get ready world, I’m firing back, hard. 🙂

      1. Most of it is in person or on FB … not really here. But don’t worry, I’m a tough kid. All the bullying I endured as a child made me so. 😉

  9. I’ve had a rough couple days which is culminating in an a-fib / v-tach episode, so I’m laying low for a bit.

    Carry on…

    2. Has you doctor ever suggested the ice bucket challenge to get the heart back into normal rhythm? My stepdaughter’s cardiologist recommended she try it when she has her episodes and it has actually worked at times.

  10. Thanks, TK…

    A splash of 0.17″ overnight.

    I am sure Tom can attest, we are already more than halfway through the term already! Progress notes go out today and parent nights are this week! This Saturday, the varsity football team plays its fifth game of a 10 game schedule. Time is zipping by!

    I don’t know if anyone caught this, but my former student, Sean Newcomb, got the W in the Braves win Sunday. Sean had a strong seventh inning yesterday but Atlanta squandered the lead and lost to the Cards in extras. The decisive Game 5 is tomorrow in the NLDS.

    1. School year moving at warp speed.

      We have 3 trimesters, so progress reports end of next week and 3 sets of parent-teacher conferences the last week of October.

  11. 12Z NAM advertising 3 days of rain starting Tomorrow afternoon.

    Waiting on GFS,CMC and of course the EURO.

  12. GFS : my campsite in Plymouth will be accessible only by Kayak and I can bring a boat and anchor as my camper.

    1. Kinda looks like the 00z EURO from the other day.

      If the 850 mb jet sets up over southeast MA and with ocean temps running 1-2 C above average, I can see the atmosphere squeezing out a lot of water in a given area.

      1. Oh yeah. We’ll need the ark for sure. 🙂
        Probably will not happen as depicted, but even so, ALL
        of the models are predicting a prolonged rain event.
        The only differences among models is the total amount of rain
        and the Euro now is the lowest amount.

        1. It will depend where the EURO places the nose of the 850 mb jet.

          I will randomly guess the EURO has more precip than its 00z run of today and less than its 00z run of yesterday.

          Perhaps a 3-5 or 4-6 inch bullseye in SE Mass …….

          1. Just a few hours and we’ll know. 🙂 🙂

            And even then, we won’t really know until
            when/if it happens.

  15. Patriots and Giants are at Gillette Thursday night.
    That will be interesting with what the models are calling for.
    The GFS Bowl.

  16. I thought that area off of northeast FL looked a bit suspicious.

    12z EURO picking it up at hr 24 and NHC now giving it a medium chance at developing.

    How will that affect the mix ???????

  17. TK – hang in there… I had some a-tach issues this summer, fairly mild, but I went in for an ablatement procedure… 3 weeks ago, so not enough time to say it was fully successful, but all good so far! I also bought myself a new Apple Watch 5 which is great if you want to check your heart rate or look at you ECG… love it.

    Tom

  18. Based on what the 24 hr panels of the EURO op run show, it looks like the strongest core of the 850 mb jet stays just south, so I’m thinking the heaviest amounts project to stay just south.

    There is plenty of easterly flow at 850 mb over our area though, so I’d think a couple inches of rain might be projected ???

        1. reset password. I am in.
          You were correct. about 2 inches Eastern MA.
          On another note Ukmet hammers us with 4-6 inches.

  21. Tom, you are correct about the Euro picking up on a tropical feature with this evolving system.

    It’s a messy evolution. There are two X’s on the NHC map right now. The northern one, IMO, doesn’t need to be there. That thing’s certainly not going tropical, and even subtropical would be a major stretch. The southern one, however, is more interesting, and that is what the Euro is picking up on. Afternoon satellite certainly suggests it will take a shot at developing, before eventually merging with the non-tropical low to the north.

    It’s not the Perfect Storm. There’s just not enough energy involved here. However, that’s the general kind of evolution we’ll probably witness. There are at least a couple similarities.

    2. I’m sure you did, too much on my mind! I knew it was getting retired soon but forgot when. This was the first I actually went to check it and it was no longer there. Sad sad day….

  27. I’m beginning to worry about the potential for so much rain. It’s been a bad year – well, until about 7 weeks ago – for the basement flooding in the building. Thousands of dollars in damages already. If it rains cats and dogs for several days, I’m afraid it could mean a lot more damage to the building.

    1. Well, it surely looks like rain, it’s just a matter of how much.
      At this point, root for the Euro.

  28. 18Z has Rain starting around 9Z tomorrow AM and still going at run’s end
    at 6Z on Saturday AM.

    Here is the total rain with still a bit in progress at end.

    Over 5 inches in Boston, 6+ South Shore and 3.5 495 belt.

    https://imgur.com/a/oWiQcKL

      1. 4KM NAM is even worse!! Through 60 hours only,
        about 7 inches for Boston. YIKES!!

        OK, these outrageous totals are likely Not to happen, but
        It is pretty scary seeing these totals bandied about.

    1. I’d say a reasonable chance of that happening somewhere along the coast, unless it stays much farther to the South than most of the models are projecting.
      We shall see.

    1. SREF mean 3.97 inches for Boston with a ton of variability among members
      from low of 0.19 inch to a high of 8.35 inch.

  35. I’d like to ask for prayers for the folks in the San Francisco area. Macs brother lives about 25 miles east of San Francisco. He is waiting for power to be shut off. I asked why and I’d it is customary….this was his reply

    First time on such large scale and a first for our area. Just pray for no arsonists. Gusts 55-60 mph. Fire can spread at a rate of a football field every 10 seconds in rural areas. A bit slower here I’d think….hope.

    1. I heard that on the news this morning, Vicki. The power could be out for awhile.
      There are nine school districts in that area that already have started to call off classes.

      1. He is working on final preparations for Jenny’s memorial this weekend…his and Macs big sister. I’m sure it will be a very difficult time for them to all leave home.

    2. I had to read up on this to understand it.

      That’s hard ……. I hope they get through without too long of an outage.

      1. Thank you, Tom. I knew nothing either until he just txtd. I sure hope that this doesn’t trigger a fire……outage could be 3-7 days but I have the sense they are on board with whatever needs to be done

  36. Thought I would share a few of the pictures I took during our hike on Mt Washington Saturday. I took tons of pictures as the weather was spectacular….sunny and crisp with 130 mile visibility. And with high pressure cresting overhead, the winds were almost calm. A true rarity on that mountain, especially considering the winds reached 102 mph the night before with -15 wind chills and heavy rime icing. We definitely lucked out. The Ammonoosuc Ravine trail was a bit icy in the AM on the way up, but once we hit treeline, the sun was hitting the rocks and drying them out nicely.

    Shot of some rime icing on the trees just below treeline:

    https://imgur.com/OjVhlez

    My son standing “on top of the world” just below the Lake of the Clouds hut:

    https://imgur.com/P5iAIr4

    Looking south at Mt Monroe and Eisenhower from the summit cone:

    https://imgur.com/UEnKW9o

    The final grueling 0.1 miles to the summit. Love the rime icing on the sign from the night before:

    https://imgur.com/Nu9qhQE

    Cool shot looking west down the COG rail tracks as we crossed it on the Gulfside Trail:

    https://imgur.com/U2V96K5

    Looking into the Great Gulf with Jefferson, Adams, and Madison in the background:

    https://imgur.com/udZ0v1r

    Awesome day! I could almost see Coastal over at Wildcat with the naked eye 🙂

  38. Nice shots mark, thank you!! Glad you had spectacular weather for your hike, on of the rare days up there.

    1. Thank you. I’m happy for my son as it seems like every day we have had the chance to go up north and hike, the weather does not cooperate. We finally caught it just right!

  39. The early 0z runs… yikes. This could be a very interesting couple of days for coastal southern New England.

    1. Looking back over the years, this type of set-up has happened a fair number of times in October. It’s definitely part of the transition between winter and summer in our part of the world, obviously not every year, but often enough to be very noticeable.

      1. I’m definitely interested to see how it plays out. Most people probably won’t notice much outside of multiple days of windy, cool, and occasionally wet conditions. But I would have some growing concern at the coast as it stands now.

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