Monday Forecast

81 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)
A cold front slowly approaches today then moves through tonight and sits not too far south of the region Tuesday as high pressure builds northwest and north of the region, turning today’s mild and breezy day into a much cooler one for Tuesday. The front will produce rain showers as it crosses the region tonight and some of them may linger near Cape Cod and the South Coast into Tuesday morning. The Wednesday through Friday weather largely depends on the development and reach of low pressure south of the region. Its center will probably form pretty far to the south, and won’t be allowed to move too far north due to high pressure remaining strong to our north, but the size of its moisture shield should be enough for at least a lot cloudiness during those days and the air flow between the high and low will at least be enough to bring the risk of some drizzle at times, and possibly some rain at times, but for now I’m continuing to lean toward most of that being to the south and therefore the greatest chance of that being nearer to the South Coast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers possible. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind SW shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers South Coast / Cape Cod morning, otherwise partly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy South Coast with a risk of rain at times. Highs 56-63. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle favoring East Coast. Areas of rain favoring South Coast. Highs 56-63. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)
Cautiously optimistic that we’ll see low pressure passing far enough southeast of the region and high pressure to the northwest with fair weather for the October 12-13 weekend, but low confidence forecast at the moment. A more westerly air flow develops thereafter, milder with a few rain showers possible October 14-15 with fair weather returning to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)
Generally west to east flow pattern expected with some up and down temperatures and a few generally minor rain shower threats as the pattern is dry overall.

81 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Definitely a feel of summer in the air this morning.

    Pats looked better, although their O-line needs some serious work before
    Brady gets injured.

    On another note: Ex Patriots QBs doing quite well, ie Jimmy G and Jacoby Brissett

    1. Thank you. I will definitely check it out.

      On the topic of heartland…..I am having a bad feeling about Jack. I never look ahead so haven’t checked and don’t want to but……

    1. We haven’t had too many drastic temp or pressure changes. It’s been variable at times, and we’ve been very dry, lack of storms. I’m not sure what in the weather would be causing it. It may be unrelated to weather.

    1. You mean this horrific news?

      ABINGTON – Three children and two adults were found dead Monday in a condo in Abington.

      5 Investigates has learned that a family member arrived at 135 Centre Avenue to pickup one of the children for school found the victims, who appear to have died from gunshot wounds.

      Police sources said they believe there is no threat to the public at this time.

      One can only ask: WHY?

  11. Thank you, TK.

    There was some discussion yesterday about whether we’d reach 70F after this week. I’d say it’s very premature to rule out 70F – to illustrate, I remember late November/early December 1997 raking leaves in 70F plus weather. I’d also say we can’t rule out 80F after this week. Less and less likely but definitely a possibility in late October and early November. I do think that 90s are no longer in the cards until at least next April.

    The squirrels have a ton of acorns to hide this year. Their instinct is of course to dig and put nuts in the ground. I’ve noticed them working overtime this year in the Public Garden. I saw one squirrel this morning who had the look, “gosh, this is nuts, I’m tuckered out from all this digging.”

      1. I doubt you will see one of those from me all Winter.
        Almost got one for the Euro Rain event, however.

  15. I saw the temperatures at noon today…

    Anybody with a brain can look at that map and know that Boston’s temperature is completely out to lunch.

    1. I maxed out briefly at 79 here in JP, which seems to be more in line.
      Let’s have a Logan Sensor party and dump it in the harbor!

          1. If it was summer the dew point was in the 50s and the wind was west-northwest maybe you could sell me Ben Logan was a few degrees warmer than you.

            that sensor has become the biggest load of BS in southern New England.

            I’m just happy that I was right all along.

            I’ve been watching this type of stuff for too damn long to have been fooled by it.

            what’s disappointing is the fact they allow 5° error and that the local media has just bought the numbers straight up.

            For that I am fully in the right for being very disappointed.

                1. The NWS already admitted to SAK that they were off.

                  And there is no way that 81 is correct in Boston. I’ve been doing this for decades. I know how these temperatures set-up in pretty much every pattern. That is a horrendously bad reading today.

    1. Yes. That’s exactly what I meant. I saw a map on the noon news that showed Logan at 80 while everybody else was 76 or lower. I burst out laughing out loud. it’s a good thing I swallowed the drink that I had just sipped first.

  18. Still going with a more southerly idea for the low, despite the Euro’s sudden shift. That model has been about as useful as a pile of dog crap lately.

  19. I was out of reply slots above…

    I doubt they tested it, because they probably won’t. They’ll probably just replace all the ones they know are bad. That was one that was acknowledged to be questionable and they put it on SAK to get the data… hence, they aren’t planning on testing anything. They’d be better of just replacing it asap. It’s just continuing to add to skewed climate data for the city.

    1. They won’t bother officially finding out. In somebody’s mind (who wears a suit and tie) it’s a waste of time and money. Maybe they have a point. I don’t know. It’s frustrating that we can’t get accurate temperature readings with the tech we have.

      1. There’s no doubt, in light of available resources, that the observation program is simply not a high priority right now. That’s not to say there aren’t people who care, but there’s only so much that can be done in the current environment.

        1. Oh I know there are plenty of people who care. But they can’t do anything in the situations they are in. I’ve been there…

  21. CFS climate outlooks are back in “I have no idea what’s going on” mode. Something threw that model for a loop on its 00z run today. We’ll see if it corrects.

    CFS weeklies & monthlies are not to be trusted at the moment.

  22. It’s interesting how the potential storm for this week is flying under the radar. Maybe because it isn’t likely to get a name? NHC gives it a 30% chance of becoming sub-tropical, but it’s been stuck at that value for awhile and I think there’s a lot of doubt as to whether it will have enough tropical characteristics to merit a name.

    I think the 12z Euro is significantly overdone, but it’s surprising to not see more hype out there considering that, verbatim, the impacts of that run would range from “high” to “devastating” for south coastal New England and Long Island. That’s considering the combination of rainfall, wind, waves, and presumably coastal flooding and erosion especially given the full moon.

    1. I agree that it’s significantly overdone. I’m also glad we’re not seeing hype. If it looks more threatening by tomorrow, a reasonable enhanced approach in wording of NWS and local media is the best way to go.

  24. TK – So what was the “actual” high temp at Logan today?

    You do understand that whatever Logan says (81F) is on the record for this date indefinitely for generations to come.

    2. Yes, yes I more than understand that. And it’s PATHETIC, to be perfectly honest. There’s no excuse for it. FIRM FACT. I’m done with bullshit. It’s everywhere.

    3. The actual high temp at Logan today? Probably 75 or 76. It was way WAY more than 2 degrees off today.

      1. It will be interesting as to what their thermometer readings will be like this upcoming winter. Any chance a bit more accurate with colder temps?

        1. I honestly doubt it.

          And my harshness was not directed at you. I’m just having a very frustrating day…

          I seem to remember most temps being in the 1-2 degree too warm error area all last winter. I don’t think it will really change, other than maybe getting worse. Bad sensors don’t tend to fix themselves, they just get worse or stay the same.

          Hopefully they can replace it soon so we can get more reasonable data.

  25. On this date in 1981 I recorded my first snowflakes of the season at Woburn MA, mixed in with a heavy rain shower with very cold air aloft. That is the earliest date (since I started observing in 1978) that snow was seen here.

  27. 00z CFS was the one I flagged as crapola. The 12z is a little better, but it isn’t there yet.

    One thing is for sure, I don’t see a wet pattern for a long, long time. Hope to be wrong about that, because we’re slowly slipping back into drought.

    Well if that Euro forecast above is even half correct, that would help now wouldn’t it?!

  29. I believe my “first earliest flakes” came on Saturday, October 17, 1970. I remember (as a 10-year older) watching my Mansfield Hornets playing Hockomock League foe Canton Bulldogs at Memorial Field in Canton as it flurried.

  32. New CFS –> warm and wet through July 2020.

    I am going to take a guess that Judah doesn’t buy it either.

  33. We had spectacular views hiking on Mount Washington Saturday. The reported visibility at the summit while we were up there was 130 miles. Trails were a bit icy in the AM on the way up but by the time we got to treeline and the sun was hitting the rocks, it dried things right out. We got to the summit around 1:30 and there was still quite a bit of rime ice left right near the top of the summit cone and at the observatory. I’ll try and post some pictures in the AM!

  35. Reporting the 00z Nam 🙂 🙂

    At hr 84, it has a 989 mb low south of us, a 1,030mb high to our north.

    It has a warm 850 mb contour right over the low and one heck of a windfield just south of New England.

    One thing I sense. With a strong high to our north, it won’t take a deep low pressure to create quite a pressure gradient. If the atmosphere does want to develop a sub 990 mb low though, that would create quite a strong wind field.

    1. Correct. Which is one of the big reasons the “social mediarologists” are slow to catch onto this. They see a ~995mb low and think “oh, no big deal.” They don’t understand the implications of a setup like this, and how serious something like the 12z Euro is. Again, not to say that’ll happen, but “they” don’t realize how or why that would be so bad.

    2. Blizzard of ’78 for example, was largely made by the extremely strong high pressure area in Canada.

  36. A little editorial…

    I created this blog (with the help of my “in-house” techies) fulfilling a wish I had for a long time. Its creation happened to coincide with a time when trolling was an issue on the WBZ blog – a place where many of the folks on this blog were at the time.

    I have been pretty content with a daily posting discussing the weather for my forecast area, a detailed forecast, and leaving it open to comments. We have generally had few issues there, and at times I have been slow at dealing with some things that needed to be dealt with.

    In my comments section, I will occasionally editorialize as anybody is free to do there, within the guidelines that I have posted. Sometimes these opinions contain criticism, which I try to be as fair about as possible. I don’t ever expect everybody to fully agree with my opinions, and that is fine. This is to remind everybody that when I feel necessary to comment and criticize something, positively or negatively, that I will do so. That is not going to change. In fact, I expect it to become more frequent, as I do have strong opinions about my profession. I have dedicated a big portion of my life to this, not only the time that I put in schooling, and the years working in the private sector, but since 2010, this blog as well. We are nearly 9 years into this. I offer my knowledge freely and I welcome others’ knowledge and comments. That won’t change, necessarily, unless at some point in the future I decide to use this space in a more businesslike fashion. At this time, I don’t have plans like that in the immediate future, as I am involved in other things with work and hopefully expanding my photography at some point. There are 2 things that I am considering doing with the blog, however. One of them I tried in the past, and that was altering the cosmetic look. I have a program that allows me many options, and I would really like to explore them. So don’t be surprised if one day you call up the blog and it looks drastically different. That will be cosmetic, not content. However, not too long from now I am strongly considering adding some basic graphics / maps. Nothing that I would be “drawing” myself as I just don’t have the time for that right now, but more like the maps etc. that SAK will use for his presentation. While I do enjoy doing entirely text, sometimes an image or 2 could go a long way into helping explain something.

    So those are my thoughts here in the early hours of the morning.

    So to those who have been removed from here, and I know you still read, there was a good reason, and I was correct in doing what I did. You don’t have to like it, but you will have to deal with it. There are plenty of places on the internet that you can go be a child or a troll. Hey, Halloween’s coming up. There’s a costume idea for you. And if you even think about trying to sabotage me or my blog, don’t bother. You’ll never win. If you have a problem with me, then write me an email. And don’t bother with fake accounts anymore. You’re not smart enough to pull it off.

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