Tuesday Forecast

95 Comments

7:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)
A low pressure trough swings through the region from west to east today bringing a warm front / cold front combo. A tongue of low level moisture will aid in setting up an area of soaking showers favoring southeastern and eastern MA this afternoon, where a rumble of thunder is even possible. Back to the west only a few showers are possible. This system will push offshore during tonight and high pressure will bring fair, seasonably chilly weather Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday, returning clouds to the region during the day. A low pressure wave will be developing along that front, and similar to yesterday’s thinking, it will be the dominant wave on the front while it impacts this area, with precipitation coming in late Thursday or Thursday night in the form of rain, but possibly flipping to a period of snow or snow showers especially north and west of Boston as it ends in the early hours of Friday, but at this point it looks like if there was to be any snow accumulation it would favor higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH and be minor at that. During the day Friday, the coldest air of the season so far will be arriving as it dries out and eventually clears out too. This will line the region up for a Saturday that will be bright but with a bite – feeling more like early winter than mid to late autumn.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers this afternoon, but an area of more numerous showers and possible embedded thunder favoring southeastern and eastern MA later in the day. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain possible, favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly mixing with or changing to snow north and west of Boston with some minor accumulation possible. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a snow shower (north) and rain shower (south) possible early, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
A weak trough will pass by later November 10 to early November 11 that may produce a rain or snow shower in a few locations but otherwise dry and a little less cold. Will watch low pressure to the south and southeast November 12-13 which should pull away by November 14 with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A disturbance to start the period may bring a few rain showers with milder temperatures then a stretch of dry, colder weather followed by some moderation.

95 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Great writeup, TK. Thank you.

    Warmer here this am by about 10 degrees. 34 when I woke up and 41 now. The sky was relatively clear but a huge blanket of clouds just moved in from the southeast.

  3. Good morning, and thanks, TK…

    Giving mid-semester exams this morning! Already through one-quarter of the school year!!!

    2. Same here.

      day 45 is Thursday in Marshfield, not that I’m counting already. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  4. Thanks Tk was raining quite steadily in pembroke when I left the house at 5Am so I’m suspecting going with above same for this afternoon.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I know it’s only 11/5, but I am somewhat disappointed in the changes to the short
    and medium range guidance. I “should” be used to this by now, but apparently I am
    not. Oh well. Life goes on, snow or no snow. I’ll deal with it, but I was so looking
    forward to the first snow of the season, even if it is early in the season. 🙂

    Even the 2nd system is now looking like a no go (go Figure!), but I suppose there is still a bit of time on that one, so we shall see.

  7. Well, the 12Z NAM has completed its run and completely rules out even a touch of snow at the back end for SNE. So, what else is no. Onto the next one. 🙂

  8. From Dr. Cohen:

    The stratospheric AO is strongly positive (Figure 1) reflective of a strong PV. I have seen much chatter about the strong PV and is it influencing NH weather. Normally a strong PV would bring relatively mild temperatures to the NH mid-latitudes. However, despite the strong circulation around the PV center and relatively low heights, the PV is not circular in shape but rather elongated (Figure 13). The counterclockwise low around the PV center is bringing northerly flow to North America rather than westerly flow more common with a strong PV with a more circular configuration (Figure 13).

    https://imgur.com/a/OGoz9od

    1. A non-elongated PV centered symmetrically over the Arctic all winter would be a blessing for the ice up there and is desperately needed. (I know this would flood the northern Hemisphere below the arctic circle with a lot of Pacific air.)

      Each year, the melt out of ice in the arctic ocean at latitude 70 to 75N has taken place earlier and earlier. In turn, the water temps rose into the upper 40s this warm season. Consequently, the freeze-up north of Alaska and Siberia has been incredibly delayed.

      Without an extremely cold arctic winter, the ice that forms remains so thin that it melts out earlier and earlier each year and the arctic ocean water temps go higher and higher. Its a nasty negative feedback cycle.

    2. I know Judah is a very smart guy but I don’t see how any objective person could read his tweets year after year and conclude he doesn’t have a cold/snow bias.

  10. Thanks TK.

    No snow for SNE this week. It’s still a favorable pattern overall, so we’ll see if anything else pops up. Nothing in particular that stands out right now.

    On the other side of the world, satellite intensity estimates indicate Super Typhoon Halong is among the strongest storms ever observed on this planet. It’s in the middle of nowhere, a good thing, as maximum sustained winds may be in excess of 200mph.

    https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24W/24W_floater.html

  11. Halong potential impact in the U.S. from Eric Webb
    The major implications from #Halong in the lower 48 will be a stronger +PNA pattern in the medium range & a significant enhancement to the shot of bitterly cold arctic air poised to come calling next week.

  13. 6z Euro EPS probabilities of greater than 3″ of snow….

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_11/B59D32B9-315D-498D-BD60-603A0F551A5C.png.bf9df8923a956f7ff82f91c3e48b33b1.png

    Still a decent chance for VT/NH/ME.

    We’re driving up to NH Friday so probably for the best some of those earlier Euro projections of 12″+ will not materialize. Will be nice to see some snow at least. We went up to Jackson the second weekend of Nov last year and saw our first snowfall of the season then as well.

    1. We always went to Mac’s uncle’s place in Stowe around Veteran’s day weekend and more often than not saw enough snow to need to have the driveway (1/2 mile long) plowed.

  16. Now can we get some snow with this cold during the month of November? First chance is a swing and a miss. Will see about the next chance middle of next week.

    1. Except that its monthly and seasonal forecasts have been poor and all signs point to a lack of southern jet stream…

  18. Jimmy, did you hear about the black cat that won the game for your Cowboys last night? Hilarious! 😀

    Sign him/her up! 🙂

  19. Philip I was watching the game and I was thinking this black cat could be a bad sign for the Cowboys. After the black cat went off the field the Cowboys woke up and played great. The thing that worries about me with the Cowboys a lot of slow starts by them this season and when playing a better opponent a slow start could mean getting blowing out.

  20. Very stead rain and extraordinarily dark in downtown Boston. I’m not sure if anyone else noticed how dark it is.

    2. I did, Joshua. I think a few of the street/parking lot lights came on here at the school. Really pouring out now and for awhile.

      1. same here. These 6pm newscast radar simulations caught my attention last night. I actually think this is heavier and a bit more widespread than those simulations showed.

    1. Ok. Doing a couple errands with my mom then I’ll be checkin’ it out and I’ll also write to you what I was going to discuss.

  24. Funny how very suddenly the GFS & ECMWF flipped places as to which model had a better handle medium range.

    JMA if you are reading this, do you share my opinion that the ECMWF is up to its old “over-amplification” tricks again? Example: Next Wednesday & Thursday on today’s 12z run.

    1. Sure looks like an extreme projection of what would need to happen at 500 mb in order for the surface projection to be able to take place.

    2. Yes over amplification, creating a strung out but amping surface wave from non existent Tennessee valley energy, as it does something it has done all summer and fall, hold on to precipitation for hours or days past any reasonable end point. And oh, that high placement would bring warm ocean air streaming into SNE.

      It was like progs 7 days out for this Thursday / Friday. ECMWF was locking in cold when there was not cold air to lock into place, all the while there was no properly placed high to lock in the cold air even if it was there. Oh, and it was going to snow for 36 hours ….

  26. JPD…found first questionable bit of info re heartland which isn’t bad since I’m into season 11. The Mongolian horses ……I believe they are Fjord ponies. Scandinavian. Kim helped a friend breed hers and we came close to purchasing the goal.

        2. Amber Marshall is an accomplished equestrian, so I suppose that helps a bunch. She was Grand Marshall
          at this year’s Calgary Stampede in July.

          1. She is. And I think several others in the show are very horse smart. I suspect Georgie has some stunt doubles but she is also impressive.

  27. Watched a fascinating documentary movie about the British Spit Fire airplane.

    On Netflix.

    Spitfire, the plane that saved the World.

    2. Maybe if it was winter. That would probably be good for a mix, probably rain showers. Water too warm.

  30. Not that I am buying the historic early season blizzard the CMC is offering, but one thing I will say is that the models are all showing a huge trough over the eastern US next week with anomalously cold air diving into the deep south. You get a shortwave riding the base of that trough and I could easily see some type of east coast storm development. Big temp differential in place with deep cold air over the eastern US, very warm waters over the Atlantic, and the jetstream riding up the coast. It’s an intriguing setup.

    1. Well,….my models know it is a tough week for me and like to make me smile. Snow would do just that. So I am in camp Mark. Even though I know you have not declared a camp

    2. I think we’ll at least see some flakes at some point next week. Maybe even some at the end of the system Friday. Not sure on a bigger storm though. If that trough is flatter than depicted or sets up too far east, whatever develops will be over the ocean and too far out to have an impact in SNE.

      Still a long ways off……

  31. Aside from the blockbuster snow storm we’ll have on Thursday night :), the B’s are looking for their 7th in a row, but down 1-0 now to Montreal.

    2. A little rough in the 1st period against the Habs. Long way to go in this game. But I hope B’s fans do realize we are going to have our struggles too. 🙂

    1. Seems totally plausible a 986 low tracking over the CT Valley with snow to the coast in November….

      Serious question – has there ever been a consistently worse performing model than the JMA?

      I have had good seasons with the ECMWF, GFS, UK, CMC, GGEM, RGEM, NAM, ETA, never used it but the ICON has had its occasional good day too. But the JMA not one time, ever…

      1. The “JMA” in that model stands for what its programmer was doing: Just Messing Around.

        1. That’s a great one –

          Right up there with our old (I am dating myself) office names

          No Good Model
          Average Verification Never
          Every Time Awry

  33. I’m jealous. I want to over-amplify something, so I’m going to write a TK model that will take a weak low on a front over the Great Lakes Sunday and turn it into a 968 bomb south of the benchmark to give us 3 to 6 inches of rain Sunday and a few feet of snow in the Berkshires. 😉

      1. I was thinking of you today. If I remember correctly, this is a difficult day for you….your dads angel day. You’ve been on my mind and in my prayers

    1. Actually Friday is going to be a dry day, and that day will probably feel colder than Saturday due to the wind.

        1. I was talking about the wind chill for Friday. Friday will FEEL colder. The wind drops off significantly Saturday.

          As far as air temperature, Friday and Saturday should be about the same (within 2 degrees of each other) at most locations.

    2. don’t forget 6Z

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019110606&fh=168

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019110606&fh=168

      CMC

      https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019110600/174/prateptype.us_ne.png

      https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019110600/192/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      EURO has DE-AMPLIFIED

      https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2019110600/150/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

      https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2019110600/168/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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