Wednesday Forecast

76 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
High pressure provides a nice early November day today. A cold front approaches Thursday with clouds and eventually wet weather, though that may hold off until very late in the day. The front slides through at night as a wave of low pressure develops on it and moves across the region, intensifying after it moves away. As cold air is pulled in, it becomes cold enough to start supporting snow instead of rain north and west of Boston but this will also take place as drier air moves in and the precipitation ends, so brief snow is really all that possible in those areas, so a “worst case” scenario would only produce a minor accumulation at higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH that would melt shortly after it fell as the ground is still on the warmer side for holding onto any snow. However, Friday itself will be a windy and cold day, feeling more like early winter. The chill will continue through Saturday but with less wind, so other than a very cold morning, the daytime will feel less cold than Friday. A little more temperature moderation will occur Sunday with a southwesterly air flow ahead of another approaching cold front, but initially this front will be moisture-starved, so only a few clouds are expected to move in during Sunday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain possible, favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly mixing with or changing to snow north and west of Boston with some minor accumulation possible favoring higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a snow shower (north) and rain shower (south) possible early, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
A front will be nearby, probably just to the south, November 11 (Veterans Day) so expect some cloudiness and cool conditions. From the night of November 11 into November 13 waves of low pressure will travel along that boundary south of the region with cloud cover and occasional precipitation in the form of rain and/or snow, depending on location. Not looking for a large winter storm type event, however. Drier weather arrives thereafter as high pressure pushes in but a disturbance may bring a rain shower risk around November 15 with milder air briefly.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
We may eventually need to watch a boundary to the south for the threat of unsettled weather but for now looking for high pressure to be dominant with mainly dry weather during this period, starting colder than average then moderating.

76 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thank you, sir…

    34 and frosty out the door.

    .70″ of rain yesterday. I heard that Lakeville had +1.00″.

  7. Thanks TK!
    What a difference between the eastern half of the state and central Ma, I only received .001” from yesterdays rain, and I know the rain bucket is not clogged I just cleaned it out.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Final rain tally at my house was 0.49 inch yesterday.

    38 at my house this morning. Not very cold at all.

    Observation: I noticed people wearing parkas with their hoods up. Seriously????
    Oh well, whatever float their boat. πŸ™‚

      1. If we go back some, I think the GFS actually had it correct
        first. If we go back farther, then the GFS was clueless, but
        the Euro over amplified things.

  12. In the will watch and see what happens category. From meteorologist John Homenuk
    Starting to see some more support for this event appear on global ensembles. The overnight EPS hinted at a low pressure system developing off the coast of New England during the middle part of next week.

    1. There will be something there, but does it amplify enough to give us anything
      significant or not? That is the question.

      Euro has it quite flat and more off shore.

  14. So far, it looks like the GFS is NOT going to over amplify, but it has a new wrinkle,
    namely a very moisture laden wave along the strong cold front with copious overriding
    precipitation. A mix/sleet in Boston at the outset with snow inland going to all snow
    and plenty of it.

        1. Yeah, I agree. It is a bit too aggressive.
          Believe it or not, the CMC looks better, but still probably not the correct solution.

          Let’s see what the Euro says and no matter what they all say, this is still 6 days out, so things can/will change.

  17. I strongly suspect that the Euro will have a suppressed wave with little, if any,
    precipitation making it this far North. We shall see.

  19. Thanks TK.

    I am getting “amped” for next week. Hopefully the only thing amplifying won’t be my disappointment. Encouraging though that all the models are showing accumulating snow at this point, even if they manufacture it in different ways. As I said last night, the setup looks good next week…just need that trough to dig a little and need the proper placement to prevent everything from sliding east out over the ocean.

    1. I should add we don’t want the trough to set up too far west either or we will end up with a cutter and mix/rain event like the UKMET/ICON are showing. The GFS starting out over the ocean is discouraging as we know it likes to adjust 700 miles west between days 7 and 4….. πŸ™‚

    2. IF this sets up more to the East, we could be in business. Not a blockbuster,
      but decent enough for season’s first snow. On the other hand, we would then
      miss batch #2. Can’t have it both ways, I guess.

  24. I will say that if a snow event happens next week I’m happy for any extra time for leaves to fall off the trees. Any chance to decrease the risk of downed limbs is a happy thing.

        1. I’ll certainly keep an eye on how it does with
          next week’s system. I have been occasionally watching it, and If I recall, it has not performed all that well. πŸ™‚

    2. What I do know about that model is that it’s not even worth keeping track of to see how it does. πŸ˜‰

  26. Reasonable discussion from NWS re: next week’s event

    Monday night into Wednesday…

    Medium range guidance all showing an amplifying northern stream
    trough moving through the Gt Lakes to the northeast with a robust
    upper level jet. As a result, low pres is expected to develop on the
    baroclinic zone east of the trough axis. The positioning and
    amplitude of this northern stream trough will be critical to
    determining the location and track of the low pres and whether we
    see snow or rain. GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance indicate large
    spread in possible track outcomes ranging from an inside runner and
    more rain to offshore and more snow, although much of the EPS
    members are clustered near the SNE coast which would favor interior
    locations for best chance of snow. However, due to the high track
    uncertainty all potential outcomes are in play and will have to wait
    until the guidance can better resolve the details of this digging
    northern stream energy. We have higher confidence in another shot of
    unseasonably cold air by the middle of next week as the anomalous
    deep trough moves across New Eng.

  27. Quick commentary on the 12z’s. Split the GFS/ECMWF then lean a little more on the GFS side for the unsettled stretch centered around Tuesday (mentioned in my discussion above). That’s how I feel the surface plays out at this time. Does that mean significant snow for SNE? Not really. Not enough cold air. All rain? Probably not that either.

    2. Split those 2 and you almost have the CMC which still has too much snow.
      So the CMC with 1/2 the snow? or less.

      1. Less. Remember how bad these medium range global models are with snowfall this far in advance.

        1. Oh I’d love a blockbuster but since the 11th is a meaningful day to me, having it end with a first snow would be more than I can hope for

    1. Enjoy Montreal. If you want to condition yourself, come on out to Sutton. It’s 29 now. When you get here, it’ll be a few degrees colder πŸ™‚

        1. Most of the time it will. Even in November we hardly ever get into a snowy pattern in SNE. Climatology. πŸ˜‰

      2. Unsettled weather is the name of my new indie rock band. We will be playing downstairs at the middle east. lmao

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