98 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – April 20 2020”

  1. Good morning,

    I didn’t get a chance to post the graphs. Here they are through yesterday’s data.
    I am trying to grasp when/if we may have peaked in Massachusetts, but the daily
    data is just to choppy. Too early to tell, especially when viewing weekend data.

    Suffice it to say that the situation remains very bad. Hoping we start to see a downward trend this week. I fear that won’t be happening just yet. I sincerely hope we see that.

    Will continue to monitor.

    https://imgur.com/a/JQydZUA

      1. Some of the data choppiness comes from how and when data is collected and reported and the weekends always seem a little strange on data. It would be good to see a week or 10 days of steady declines.

        1. Absolutely. One day at a time. We’ll see what today’s
          numbers look like and go from there.

    1. Thank you. This alone sure says to me we are not close to being able to reopen businesses and schools.

    2. If I could add some perspective to this.
      Think when we had EEE or West Nile and how alarmed we would be
      when a total of 5 deaths were attributed to it. Here we have 1,706 deaths
      attributed to Covid-19. Just let that sink in.

    1. btw, that whole show was in tump’s face for de-funding WHO.

      We made a generous contribution because we can and it seemed like the right thing to do.

  2. I believe I heard Gov. Baker mention April 28 date as the peak. Let us hope the downward trend begins right thereafter. I’m also beginning to wonder now if Massachusetts and Boston will eventually surpass New York and NYC as “hotspots”.

    1. Don’t go by dates Philip . I just saw baker said today peak. This part is true we are entering that phase now getting & going to get worse lasting weeks Arod confirmation on weeks last night . We are entering the most dangerous part right now & every single precaution must be taking. Baker needs to step up this week & order all state schools closed the rest of the year period . In addition to that all non essential emergency personnel and all of the other orders in place right now be extended till June 4th & then only then we will reevaluate. The Governor knows what’s coming & needs to just extend everything let folks know because people think ( not all ) think May 4th jump back on the horse & saddle up it’s over . Far from over . I like the Governor of New York he has a lot of wit , courage & the attitude I’m going to do what’s right . He has 400 ventilators with Boston’s name on them saying you were there for us we are here for you , that’s how it should be .

      1. For all practical purposes, “peak” is at least the remainder of April, and I agree that June is the best month to extend the order. Regardless I doubt that Gov. Baker will bow to any outside pressure to open anytime soon, unlike other state governors.

        1. The school thing Philip has me nervous Philip with mayors & supers going back & fourth according to the Governor. But encourage news he said this morning that remote learning has finally shown significant improvement after slow start .

              1. Walsh saying in briefing not confident at all school going back definitely not May 4th

  3. I like the data coming out of NY. Could still be some Sunday effect there, but it’s a positive that the deaths have come down substantially. Cases haven’t been released yet. My guess is that number will show a steady decline.

    This said, some of the other numbers today thus far are incredibly funky, which again points to deficiencies in data reporting. Pennsylvania today reports (so far) 1 new death. It reported 136 new deaths yesterday. It would be fantastic – a miracle – if indeed there was only 1 death yesterday in all of Pennsylvania. But, I have my doubts. It’s not the only state to report weird numbers. Man, data collection isn’t that difficult. Time to revamp and centralize our system.

    1. I think PA is now over 100 deaths for the day. Looks like US is over 1200 with a number of states not yet in including MA.

  4. Seems like Massachusetts has become a real hotspot for COVID-19, despite precautionary measures that are basically in line with many other states. Not sure why that would be, but I do find it interesting.

    Definitely positive news coming out of New York. They are on the downward slope in earnest, though as others have said it will be gradual.

    We’re about to face some big questions though. Some states are going into full on reopen mode at this point, and as I’ve said I don’t see how you get some states doing that without others following. And I think it will be harder to shut things down a second time if infections do rise again. The governor of Georgia just announced probably the most aggressive reopening plan for any state yet. While there are technically some “social distancing” limitations in his plan, it effectively amounts to a full on reopening of the state by April 27.

    1. BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
      MISTAKE opening up too soon. I just heard Dr. Fauci say it is premature and dangerous to re-open too soon.

          1. I didn’t have the balls to say it . Absolutely agree I can’t stand the little orange wimp .

    2. So basically, these governors are playing Russian roulette with the lives of the people in their states and frankly the country. They disgust me. And if anyone thinks that is too strong, I can use the actual words for them that come immediately to mind.

    1. Massachusetts does a reasonable job in tallying, timeliness, and effort to explain. I’m pleased with the Governor for the most part, and also Walsh. This is the biggest challenge they’ve faced and I’m mostly satisfied with their performance.

  5. Connecticut numbers are terrible, a jump from 400 to 1800 cases in one day; and 40 to 200 deaths in one day. Probably partly a Sunday effect, but still.

    Georgia’s decision is premature and unwarranted. As WxWatcher said it’s aggressive and essentially reopens the state next week. I’m for a very gradual reopening of certain states soon (like Vermont), but it should be very gradual and include continued social distancing measures such as travel restrictions. Georgia is NOT on my list of states to open up. Not at all. It’s still seeing 800 new cases a day. Suicidal to open up Georgia. People have to realize they’re dealing with a virus that’s looking for hosts. It’s the ultimate parasite. And it’s killing at a very high rate. Crude case fatality is now over 5%. It’s rising, not falling, even as 150k get tested daily. Yes, eventually it will fall a bit when everyone gets tested. But, I think the overall mortality rate will be closer to 5% than 1%.

    1. Should add that Georgia has one of the lowest test per capita rates. Almost all Southern states have low test rates.

  6. I think it is kind of disappointing that there was not one reference or mentioning of the tragedy that went on in Nova Scotia yesterday evening on this blog. I find that we are almost mired in the mud of this virus and believe me it affected me directly. I for one am going to start living more normally in my mind each day . It may be a different way of living but I’m going to try and pull away from the virus onslaught of information that has been all consumer nag the last month and a half .

    1. I did read about this terrible and senseless tragedy in Nova Scotia.

      It is true that there is an onslaught of coronavirus news, which crowds out other things. It’s natural and understandable given the enormity of the problem. But, we shouldn’t forget that other bad and good things are happening on this planet. For example, the Syrians have taken advantage of the U.S. withdrawal of troops and preoccupation with Covid-19 and obliterated rebel strongholds. The rebels aren’t our friends, either. Don’t get me wrong. But, the massive displacement and killing of civilians goes on unimpeded.

    2. Actually Aidan, I looked up the town in NS on a map early today, having travelled the area a few years ago. While shootings occur all to frequently, pandemics do not. The world got caught off guard and now it’s almost all anyone can talk about. Today I spoke by phone with my best friend and my sister and the virus wasn’t mentioned once during either conversation. It was quite a respite.

      1. I agree with both what Longshot is saying and what Vicki is saying. The U.S. media under reported the news out of Nova Scotia but we never report what is going up north and that is a pity. There are very few Americans who could name the Canadian Prime Minister (at least before Justin Trudeau). We just sadly don’t pay attention to our neighbor to the north. The tragedy in Nova Scotia was also slow to unfold (according the the CBC) and even up there only got co-headlines with COVID 19. Maybe someone should have said something on the blog but even Canadians seem to be dealing with what happened on an equal level with Covid 19.

    3. Just awful. I was discussing with a friend earlier. It was covered by some media sources. I didn’t do an in depth check of which ones. I am just not paying as much attention to the news as normal. A bit of self preservation Or my attempt to live normally in my mind. It was in NYT and a few others. Sadly, I have seen this for a while re terror stacks. It started in part before covid.

  7. California also saw a fairly big jump in cases. Darn it. Here, the jump could be real as the state has been one of the more consistent reporters of data. No Sunday effect.

  8. Joshua, the rate of new cases and deaths in CT has not gotten worse. Per Gov Lamont in his press conference this PM, the large jump in the numbers you are seeing in the data that came out today is due to a change in how the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is classifying some COVID-19-related cases.

    1. Interesting. I’m not sure I understand. Do you mean there is more or better testing so more cases are being recognized.

    2. Were they hiding Nursing home deaths?
      Are they now checking all deaths, even if they had not tested positive for
      Covid-19? Has to be something???

  9. Still no Massachusetts data, unless for some reason they didn’t even update
    their own website??????????????????????????????????????

  10. 1/3 of the world’s cases have occurred in the USA and I fear we are on our way to reaching 1 million cases sometime next week. We can only hope everyone stays very smart about this.

    1. That is the problem. While some of us stay smart about this, others are being
      plain ole STUPID about it. See meme above.

    1. Previous latest posting for MA was about 4:45 PM. This is the latest ever.
      I hope it is just a glitch with the website and not some sort of disaster with
      the numbers.

  11. Massachusetts numbers are a bit better. I’ll be even happier if I see another decline in new cases tomorrow.

    New York data is showing a consistent and steady downward trend. Encouraging.

    Overall, unfortunately, the country is depicting some alarming trends today. Hasn’t been picked up by the media as much as you’d think it would. Pockets of New Jersey, including the Camden area seeing large spikes in new cases. Also, a massive jump in cases and deaths in Connecticut. Furthermore, to indicate how totally uncontained this virus is and widespread throughout all corners of the nation, today we saw substantial increases in California, Ohio, Rhode Island, Kentucky, Nebraska, and Georgia.

    I want some semblance of normalcy by summer. Not large crowds, concerts, or gatherings. Just, the ability to work without fearing that scheduled gigs have been cancelled (in my case they’re pretty all being cancelled right now). The ability to grab a coffee at a cafe and sit down to read the paper – socially distant, but not in takeout mode. The ability to watch sports on TV.

    Man, I hate this crap virus.

    1. Joshua, see my post above. There has been no massive jump in cases and deaths in CT. The Governor was quick to qualify that at the beginning of his press conference today. The numbers today reflect recent changes to the way CDC is classifying cases. Hospitalizations had actually gone down the last three days before a small uptick of 18 today. The overall trend here has been encouraging.

      Hospitalizations in Fairfield and New Haven counties which have been hit the hardest were significantly down today while Hartford County is seeing the biggest increases now. This was expected with SW CT peaking first and now Hartford County at peak. In fact, we are about a month ahead with the peak in comparison to what some of those initial model projections were showing a few weeks back (mid to late May).

  12. Just letting you know my C19 test results are back and I’m negative.

    Stay healthy everyone.

  13. Vicki, thanks for the information on the Massachusetts/federal unemployment relief for self-employed. I did apply earlier today, but don’t expect anything, which is fine. I’ll get by and I do think things will pick up by fall or winter.

      1. Feeling pretty well. Thank you for asking. If that was Covid-19 then I thankfully got the mild version (as do most people), even milder than my son whose fever lasted a while and spiked to 103F several times. We don’t know if it was Covid-19 at this point. But, if antibody tests become more accurate we will know soon enough. I’m still being extra cautious in case I’m infectious – which I highly doubt – and in case I haven’t had Covid-19 (which is very possible).

        A colleague of mine just lost his mother to the disease. She lived in an assisted living facility in Framingham. Apparently there are 20-25 active cases there; staff and residents.

  14. Mark, I do believe what your governor said is accurate. Thanks again for the clarification. I wonder, however, if other states – other than NY, CT, and maybe Louisiana – have followed suit. Other than last Thursday’s big increase in deaths attributed to NYC I haven’t seen increases of the magnitude I saw in Connecticut. Or, have other states like Massachusetts always had the same accounting method for cases and deaths that include nursing homes, etc … consistent with CDC classification? Another one to file away as `let’s revamp and make consistent our data reporting in this country!’

    1. Just got some clarification on this from the Hartford Courant…..

      The state reported 204 new “COVID-19-associated deaths” Monday, increasing its death toll to comply with guidelines from the federal Centers for Disease Control. The CDC recently expanded its case and death counts to include probable cases where there was no positive COVID-19 test but where clinicians believe the individual had the virus based on symptoms or other factors.

      Of the deaths the state reported Monday, 74 were new while 130 had been unreported over the previous four days, bringing the state’s total death toll to 1,331. A total of 19,815 residents have tested positive for COVID-19, and 1,919 are currently hospitalized, according to state numbers.

  15. TK, good news on being negative. You’re a positive guy, but you know what I mean. Stay safe and healthy!

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