DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

Today carries flood and severe weather potential from tropical showers and thunderstorms that will be moving mostly south to north while ribbons of them drift eastward in response to a slow-moving cold front and a saturated atmosphere. Torrential downpours and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats. Hail is a lower threat today. Lightning is a threat in any thunderstorm, though some produce more frequent cloud-to-ground lightning than others. The rule is, as soon as you hear it, the storm is close enough to endanger you, so move to a place of safety. Also never try crossing a flooded road, most especially moving water, in a vehicle or on foot. While many areas will come away with just a wet, muggy summer day, others will see the occurrence of the more severe weather from this event. Take note, be weather-aware, and don’t take unnecessary risks out there. Things settle down from west to east this evening and tonight as the front pulls through, and we’ll be set up for a much quieter day on Monday, with more sun, some clouds, and maybe a few pop up showers/downpours favoring southeastern MA / Cape Cod during the midday hours with some lingering tropical moisture being acted on by the July sun. Other than that, it will be mainly rain-free across the region, but quite warm and still humid. Another cold front approaches the region Tuesday. You might think “two cold fronts? why isn’t it getting colder?” … but keep in mind this is mid summer now and cold front is a relative term, especially in this pattern when you’re not tapping cool/dry air from Canada. These fronts are weak in terms of not delivering a cooler, drier air mass, but do provide a focus of convergence for shower/storm development. And we’ll see this chance again Tuesday afternoon and evening, but a little more progressively than today’s event. However, the threat of heavy downpours will be there and with the much of the region seeing heavy rain recently and again today, the flash flood threat will be renewed, just for a shorter period of time. This particular cold front will bring in slightly drier air for Wednesday, with will be a fair weather day from start to finish with no threat of showers/storms. We haven’t had many of those since the start of meteorological summer, but that day will be one of them. Humidity comes back up and at least the threat of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday as a weak disturbance moves into the region ahead of the next trough of low pressure that seem to occur in an endless parade this season.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms until midday then more widespread showers/thunderstorms from then on. Torrential rainfall and flash flooding likely in some areas. Damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes may occur in isolated locations. Highs 72-79. Dew point 70+. Wind S 5-15 MPH but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms / downpours.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief shower/downpour favoring southeastern MA midday. Highs 80-87, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms become likely from west to east mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point rising to 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

A more limited chance of showers/storms but still there are a couple disturbances pass by on a more westerly flow. No major heat of the sustained variety.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

A similar pattern will continue late month – a few opportunities for showers/storms but a little less active overall, and no major sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

Yesterday the every-other-day unsettled pattern meant 3 out of 5 days were more unsettled. Today, it’s only 2 out of 5. HAHA!! Today, there is a temporary exception in a day that will carry much less of a chance of showers and storms and see most areas rain-free for the entire day, and that is the Islands and Outer Cape Cod, which have heavy showers and storms around early to mid morning before they head out. Otherwise, a couple of isolated showers may pop up today in an otherwise cloud/sun mix, mainly rain-free, but humid day. Not too bad compared to many days we’ve had so far this summer. But tomorrow, with the help of a frontal boundary moving in from the west and an abundant amount of moisture available, the shower and thunderstorm threat goes up and will be fairly widespread in coverage. There is concern for flooding issues due to the heavy rainfall. The good news is this system moves along enough so that we get back into a break Monday. We do follow it up with another shower/storm threat Tuesday, and see another break on Wednesday as systems start to move a little more efficiently west-to-east. This is due to a weakening of the long-standing Greenland blocking high pressure. Something you often hear about in winter, but it can occur during the warm season as well.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely Islands to Outer Cape Cod through mid morning, otherwise isolated showers possible anywhere this afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Torrential rainfall and flash flooding likely in some areas. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

A more limited chance of showers/storms but still there are a couple disturbances pass by on a more westerly flow. No major heat of the sustained variety.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

A similar pattern will continue late into the month – a few opportunities for showers/storms but a little less active overall, and no major sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

The general pattern remains the same – frequently unsettled, often humid, no major heat. This is being driven primarily by a blocking high pressure in the area of Greenland that has been happy to hang around there for weeks, and will be doing so for at least another 5 days (and likely beyond that too). This keeps a trough in our region, with episodic showers and thunderstorms being more likely every other day (today, Sunday, Tuesday). On the in-between days (Saturday and Monday), the chance is lower and any activity that does occur will tend to be isolated with most areas dry.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Most sun this morning except Cape Cod which will have showers and thunderstorms early to mid morning. Least sun this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible to probable anywhere, a few of which can be strong. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

Transition to a slightly less unsettled pattern begins as the Greenland block weakens. A couple showers and thunderstorm chances favor mid to late period with one or two disturbances coming from the west in quicker-moving zonal flow pattern. No sustained major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

A weaker version of the “summer-so-far” pattern with a few shower and thunderstorm chances but not quite as active, and no sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

Boston’s Logan airport will not set a new record for the latest first 90+ of the season. They finally made it yesterday, late in the afternoon, when a weak sea breeze quit and a southwest wind took over, pushing them briefly to 91. But this is not the sign of a sudden switch to a hot pattern. The pattern featuring high humidity but a lack of heat will continue for a while yet. Along with this comes additional wet weather chances, but focused on every other day, with just limited activity today, more activity Friday, limited again Saturday, and another increase Sunday, before the see-saw tips the other way Monday. This is essentially an unchanged outlook from yesterday, so I won’t re-hash all of it. The idea is the same. A trough of low pressure dominates the weather, and disturbances push into and through the region, and two such disturbances will be right in our area Friday and again Sunday, when chances are highest for seeing wet weather in much of the region.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon, but most activity will be isolated and west of I-95. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early and again overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

Based on current timing, shower and thunderstorm chances are highest on July 18 and 20, but cannot rule out a shower or storm any of these days with the overall pattern similar. High humidity may break somewhat later in the period. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

One or two drier intrusions of Canadian air, still some shower and thunderstorm opportunities though. Still no major sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

You’ll notice we have some high altitude smoke in the sky again from Canada. We’ve seen this off and on for some time now since the fire season started early up there, but they are in their normal fire season now and so there are still a series of ongoing wildfires that continue to provide smoke that occasionally gets into our sky. Thankfully the closer-to-surface smoke is rather thin today and will be dissipated and removed from the area by tomorrow. Otherwise, weatherwise, here’s the deal. High pressure built in surface and aloft yesterday as low pressure lifted away from the region with a nice summer day – a touch less humid though still technically humid, and quite warm but not excessively hot. Today we edge up both the temperature and humidity for more of a classic summer-feeling day. A weak, nearly indiscernible trough line will be edging down from northern New England and is a slight aid to triggering a few showers and thunderstorms mainly near the MA/NH border, west of I-95, later today. A few of these may wander into northeastern MA by the end of the afternoon or early evening but should be in their dissipating process by that time. Will Boston’s Logan airport hit 90 for the first time this season today? Maybe, but a light sea breeze can prevent it, unless that breeze occurs and dies off early enough, in which case the airport can jump up at the end of the day. Many areas away from the coast make a run at or slightly surpass 90 today. As you know, 90+ temps have been lacking thus far and so when you get there, along with some humidity, in a season that’s been sparsely populated with them, it feels quite hot. If you are outside today, stay hydrated and in the shade when possible. Our overall weather pattern is unchanged yet, and we have another low pressure trough to govern the overall weather from Thursday through the weekend. This trough will take its time moving eastward into our region via the Great Lakes, and as I thought yesterday, Friday and Sunday appear to be the 2 days with the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms out of that 4-day stretch. Obviously, fine tuning will come both in comments sections after each blog post, and with each morning blog update itself. Don’t cancel your weekend plans, but know that Sunday is likely to carry a higher potential of showers/storms regionwide than Saturday does.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon interior southern NH and north central to northeastern MA. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon, but most activity will be isolated and west of I-95. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early and again overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

Based on current timing, shower and thunderstorm chances are highest on July 16 and 18, but cannot rule out a shower or storm any of these days with the overall pattern similar. High humidity may break somewhat later in the period. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

Continued indications of a break-down of the blocking pattern that has caused the muggy/showery pattern to more of a zonal flow with 1 or 2 dry air intrusions from Canada behind a couple shower/thunderstorm threats. Still no indications of any sustained significant heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)

While the overall pattern of high humidity and frequently unsettled weather doesn’t change, we do get into one of those “break” periods today and Wednesday. The anomalous low pressure area that brought substantial rainfall just west of our region with major flooding and a pretty good couple swaths of downpours to our area with more moderate flooding in some locations has lifted to the north. A slightly drier westerly air flow will now be with us today into Wednesday, with a tiny edge taken off the humidity. But compensating for this will be a boost in temperature. Boston’s Logan Airport (where the official temperature is taken for the city) has yet to hit 90 this year and has an outside shot of finally doing so on Wednesday. This will largely depend on whether or not a light sea breeze kicks in there long enough to prevent it. Either way, a nice couple of summer days coming up in comparison to recent weather and past frequently unsettled conditions. There will be some cloudiness around eastern MA and southern NH to start the day – wrap around clouds behind the departing low pressure area. Otherwise just some passing fair weather clouds will be around today. Tonight, some fog patches may form in interior lower elevations where temperatures can fall more easily to match the moderately high dew points. This burns off quickly early Wednesday and we just see some more pop up cumulus clouds, a couple of which can grow enough to produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly in interior southern NH and north central MA in the afternoon. Any of these that do occur will be of short duration. And then nature reminds us that we are not really out of the overall weather pattern we’ve been in for quite a while, when the next low pressure trough moves in Thursday into late week with another increase in shower and thunderstorm chances. Of the 3 days Thursday through Saturday, Friday looks like the most active one at this time, but will need to monitor trends on shorter-range guidance as we get closer.

TODAY: Early clouds southern NH and eastern MA, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point falling toward 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon interior southern NH and north central MA. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

Shower and thunderstorm chances higher every other day (July 16, 18, 20). A pattern of high humidity but a lack of major heat continues through mid month.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

Similar pattern to start the period, but finally a break-down of a persistent blocking pattern at high latitudes may occur enough to allow a drier air intrusion from Canada later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

Ingredients are in place for a significant rain event today in the Northeast. Here in the WHW forecast area we’ll be luckier than the heavier rain areas west of the Connecticut River Valley from northern CT through western MA and especially VT, and adjacent eastern NY, where rainfall amounts of up to double-digit totals cannot be ruled out, and flooding may rival that of Tropical Storm Irene in August 2011. The rainfall amounts and flood threat will drop off as you head eastward, but we can still see some heavy enough rainfall for at least minor to locally moderate flooding, more of the poor drainage and small stream variety. Most of this will take place from later this morning through this afternoon as waves of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms move through. This is in response to a wave of low pressure moving northward along an inverted trough just to our west, tapping tropical moisture in place. While the risk is very low, some of the embedded heavier showers / thunderstorms can produce damaging wind gusts, and there’s an even lower but non-zero risk of low level rotation in isolated heavier cells that could lead to a brief relatively weak tornado. Low pressure will then start to lift northward and the shower activity will come to an end from southwest to northeast this evening and tonight. Some areas of rather dense fog around this morning may return again during tonight as the temperature and dew point match. Tuesday, we’ll see improvement with some at least partial clearing, but I can’t rule out one more passing shower or two from west to east as the trough line swings eastward behind the departing low, but in general it’ll be a much nicer day than today, although still on the muggy side. Wednesday, high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft, and while it will “bring the heat”, relatively speaking, it will also drop the dew point slightly – maybe some of you will notice it, but it will be somewhat counteracted by the hotter temperatures with a few lower 90s for highs, while most areas peak in the upper 80s, and some coastal areas are a little cooler due to a sea breeze that likely develops. Enjoy that fair weather interlude if you can, because the overall pattern is still unsettled, and the next trough and frontal system will approach Thursday and Friday when the chance of showers and thunderstorms goes up again, along with the humidity, although the heat will be held in check.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some with heavy rain. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog early. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but locally strong and gusty winds may occur around any heavier showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers end. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of fog early. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

The July 15-16 weekend will be warm and humid with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms with a weak trough of low pressure around. This general pattern continues into next week as well. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

Overall pattern of weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

Clouds are dominant today along with continued high humidity. Fog and stratus will be more persistent in coastal areas as higher clouds above limit the sun’s ability to burn these off, and overall we’ll have a cloudier day today, with limited chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to develop, restricted to mainly interior locations this afternoon. But any that do form can contain heavy downpours. The frontal boundary that’s been edging closer to the region will be just to our west through today into Monday but a wave of low pressure forming on it will enhance rainfall tonight into Monday. The heaviest thrust of this will be just west of the WHW forecast area where some significant flooding may take place. We’ll have our own round or two of fairly widespread moderate to heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms to swing through here overnight and Monday. There is a potential that the heavier cells can produce damaging wind gusts – something we haven’t seen much of around here lately. Also, the flash flood potential is there with areas of heavy rainfall. It’ll be important to be weather-aware across the region during Monday. As the low pressure wave lifts through northern New England Monday night into Tuesday, things will quiet down, but it may take a while to clear out. We do end up with a better day Tuesday – a sun/cloud mix, still humid, but a much lower chance that anyone sees any rain, maybe just a few isolated showers. High pressure both at the surface and aloft brings a summery day Wednesday without a rain threat – just very warm, lots of sun, and fairly humid. An approaching cold front brings a shower and thunderstorm threat back to the region for Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas west of I-95 during the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog early. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but locally strong and gusty winds may occur around any heavier showers/storms.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers early in the morning. Areas of fog early. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

A lingering shower or thunderstorm possible early in the period, otherwise a drying trend into the July 15-16 weekend with a shower/thunderstorm threat returning before it’s over, and into early the following week as another frontal system moves into the region and hangs around. Humidity likely remains high, but no major sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Overall pattern of weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

This weekend will be a muggy one, warmest today, a little less warm tomorrow, more sun today than tomorrow, and limited shower and thunderstorm chances. Today’s best shot at pop up showers and thunderstorms will be west of I-95. Tomorrow’s shower chance goes up later in the day, and coverage of those should be greater, but with more cloud cover the thunderstorm chance is likely to drop off somewhat. This all takes place with a low pressure trough to our west, and an associated surface frontal boundary getting closer to our region, while it’s held back a bit by a weak ridge of high pressure to our east. There’s still a hint of uncertainty as to how the wettest weather plays out in terms of location / time frame Monday into Tuesday, but for now keeping the forecast generally the same, with Monday and Monday evening being the wettest for the region overall, and some improvement for Tuesday. There is some guidance that has the opposite idea, and I’m aware of the possibility that it ends up more correct than my current forecast, but I don’t think it will. One thing I’m more confident of, high pressure brings a warm, rain-free day to us on Wednesday, but with humidity still on the high side.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of I-95. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Mainly rain-free with a minimal shower/thunderstorm threat for July 13, then a better shot at showers/storms as a front pushes through from west to east July 14 based on current timing. This should clear the region out for at least the start of the July 15-16 weekend but showers/storms may return before it’s over, into the start of the following week, along with continued high humidity, but no major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

Overall pattern features weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

Today’s blog update carries a similar idea to yesterday’s but attempts to fine-tune some of the uncertainty. Today’s weather will be similar to yesterday’s. Low clouds and areas of fog dominate eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA to start the day, but most of this will burn off by mid to late morning. Eventually we’ll see more of a sun/cloud mix with some diurnal cumulus forming. Today’s isolated shower and thunderstorm chance is lower. Where as we popped a half dozen or so in the WHW forecast area, today I’d expect about 3 or fewer, and favoring areas away from the coast. Today’s coastal sea breeze will cool the beaches, but won’t be met with the convergence and instability that yesterday’s was, so that shower / storm trigger will be absent, with just a couple to a few air mass bubble-ups possible inland. Anything that does form fades quickly toward sunset. Some mid to high level cloud patches from a frontal boundary still well to our west can be seen in the western sky later today. Areas of stratus and patchy fog will redevelop tonight as the high humidity continues, but again this will burn off during Saturday morning. The trough and front to our west edges a bit eastward toward our region, very slowly, and during the day Saturday we’ll see more cloudiness in association with it, but directly frontal-driven showers and storms will stay west of the region, with a moist southerly air flow and solar heating contributing to isolated showers and storms, maybe a few more than today, but favoring areas west of the I-95 belt during the afternoon. Again, any of this activity subsides by nightfall, and a repeat of stratus development takes place in portions of the region later at night into Sunday morning. Sunday’s weather should feature some sun but with a mix of clouds too as initially the frontal boundary has limited impact on the region, but as the day goes along, clouds will win the battle and it is by late-day or evening when the shower threat goes up significantly. I do think thunderstorm activity will be limited, most likely over interior locations, with predominantly non-lightning-producing shower activity. A wave of low pressure brings a good shot at a fairly widespread significant showery rainfall to the region into Monday, perhaps for much of that day, with improvement expected as the low moves away Tuesday. Humidity will remain high throughout this time frame although there will be a cooling trend in temperature.

TODAY: Low clouds southern areas burning off by mid to late morning, otherwise sunshine and developing clouds with a chance of a few isolated showers and/or thunderstorms mainly away from the coast this afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH except S-SE over eastern MA and RI.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

A fair weather interlude with weak high pressure in the area early in the period during the middle of next week, followed by another unsettled weather episode with showers / thunderstorms later in the week before improvement during the July 15-16 weekend. No sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough to hang around. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

The feel of summer is here – high humidity and a bit more heat than we’ve seen. It will be with us into the start of the weekend too as a weak high pressure ridge over the region now shifts to the east while a trough digs into the Midwest. One weak offshore surface low pressure area likely pushes more cloudiness into portions of the region, especially RI and eastern MA, at times on Friday where it won’t be quite as warm as today. With this system offshore and part of a very weak nearly unnoticeable block, it may very likely hold back an approaching frontal system late week into the weekend from the west, keeping the unsettled weather threat minimal until sometime on Sunday. The wildcard day on this forecast is Monday. Not quite sure yet if the increase in the unsettled weather chance on Sunday persists Monday or moves off between 2 more distinctively defined systems. This will be something to monitor over the next few days.

TODAY: Any low clouds/fog dissipating early followed by a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, which would favor interior areas from south central NH to central MA. Highs 84-91, 76-83 coastal areas again coolest Cape Cod and the Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH except S-SE over eastern MA and RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, which may finally shift back to fair weather by the end of the period. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

I hope you all survived the holiday and its showers and storms (some areas) firework-obscuring low clouds and fog (some other areas and some of the same areas), etc. You get the idea. Sometimes Mother Nature is kind, and sometimes she is not so, but she’s just doing her thing, and she’s been doing that to the dismay of many lately (not I though, because I just take it in stride and adjust as I go). But even I would not mind a couple days that are more classic summertime feeling with lots of sun and maybe less of a rain threat than we’ve seen on many recent days. Well, that’s what we get today, and tomorrow, with weak high pressure in control, but strong enough to keep the shower and thunderstorm threat to an isolated minimum, with maybe a quick couple of the pop-up variety mainly over interior northern MA and southern NH both days, but with the extreme majority of the region seeing nothing at all. And for the first time in a while it’ll be on the hotter side, not sizzling heat of course, barely getting to 90 for the highest temps with 80s for most. The coast can see a cooling sea breeze on both afternoons, keeping the high temps closer to 80 there, even some 70s over Cape Cod and the Islands where wind from just about any direction is a “sea breeze” of one kind or another. This warmer weather does come with a continuation of fairly high humidity though, and we haven’t had too many days that combine 80s and higher humidity, so it may feel quite hot to some, despite it being fairly modest by New England. When we get to Friday and Saturday, the high pressure area will shift to the east and a low pressure trough will be setting up in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This produces a southerly air flow over our region. This is a warm pattern, but I do think any shower and thunderstorm activity will be quite limited, or even non-existent for most of the region. A small low pressure area offshore may keep it a bit cooler with a slightly better shower threat around Cape Cod on Friday, but this remains to be seen and may be a feature over-forecast by guidance, so will keep an eye on that. A frontal system associated with the trough to the west will get closer, probably close enough to send showers and storms into western New England Friday, but they may only skirt the western reaches of the WHW forecast area later in the day or evening before they are largely dissipated. And this system is not going to really make any progress on Saturday, which other than the slight chance for a few pop up showers and storms mainly over interior sections, may be a completely rain-free day for much of the region, along with continued very warm and humid weather. Sunday’s a bit of a split in prognosticating tools, with some showing some form of Saturday rerun, but showers/storms getting closer from the west, and some showing a wetter scenario evolving. I’m leaning closer to the second scenario, and will have showers in the forecast. I don’t think the set-up screams big thunderstorms this far in advance, but it may very well be one that can produce some heavy rainfall, nonetheless. This will be another forecast detail I’ll monitor and fine-tune. If the slower scenario ends up correct, Sunday ends up largely rain-free and the weekend ends up quite nice if you don’t mind the high humidity we’ll have.

TODAY: Lingering low clouds/fog South Coast burning off by late morning. Otherwise sunshine then a sun/cloud mix with only a slight chance of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring interior northern portions of the WHW area (southwestern NH, north central MA). Highs 83-90, except 76-83 immediate shore, coolest Cape Cod and Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except areas of low clouds and fog redeveloping, mainly in interior low elevations and along the South Coast. Lows 63-70. Dew points 63-70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Any low clouds/fog dissipating early followed by a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, which would favor interior areas from south central NH to central MA. Highs 84-91, 76-83 coastal areas again coolest Cape Cod and the Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Independence Day weather will not be independent of unsettled conditions. But there is good news too! A quasi-stationary trough bisects the WHW as it runs southwest to northeast across the region. There is air convergence along this trough line and with the additional help from an upper trough passing overhead, showers and a few thunderstorms have been generated and moving across the region since late last evening (after a break yesterday). This is basically going to continue to be the story with waves of showers occurring – moving southwest to northeast across the region – this morning and midday. With the help of solar heating, one more round of showers and storms will be generated during the first half of the afternoon. The greatest threat for the heaviest rainfall with these will be in the vicinity of I-90 and southward, where torrential downpours can lead to flash flooding. The threat for severe thunderstorms is minimal as many of the parameters for that will be lacking, but keep in mind that any thunderstorm is capable of producing dangerous lightning, even if it is not frequent, and this threat should never be ignored, especially with so many outdoor plans for today. As we are dealing with that round of showers and storms, the upper trough axis will be just getting ready to exit the region from west to east, and the surface boundary will respond by starting to move eastward, ending the shower and storm threat from west to east during the second half of the afternoon. Any isolated showers and storms that may pop up behind this, further north, and west, will fade and dissipate by evening as the atmosphere becomes more stable. This sets the region up for much more favorable conditions for tonight’s fireworks displays. The only “issue” may be some areas of fog that form due to the lingering moisture near ground level. I don’t expect this to be extensive. Weak high pressure builds in for midweek with generally fair and warm to hot weather, still with fairly high humidity, for Wednesday and Thursday. Both days can feature slightly cooler sea breeze in coastal locations, and the pop up shower / t-storm threat is minimal, but I can’t rule it out 100%. Friday and Saturday, high pressure shifts slightly to the east and a more southerly air flow will be in place. This will continue the high humidity, but a southerly air flow tends to have more modified temperatures coming off the ocean water to the south, keeping significant heat from occurring. On these days, the South Coast would be “coolest” with a direct ocean wind. When we get to the end of the week – Friday and Saturday – we’ll be watching the approach of a frontal boundary from the west, but there are some indications that this boundary may not be close enough to trigger much of any shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday, and may do so only for western portions of the region Saturday. This part of the forecast is lower confidence and something to be monitored as the week goes on…

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy with episodic showers and possible thunderstorms until mid afternoon, with heaviest rainfall potential along of and south of I-90 during the first 4 hours of the afternoon. Variably cloudy with any showers/storms exiting to the east and any lingering isolated activity dissipating late afternoon / early evening. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable, mostly E, up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60+. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+ Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

The bad news: The shower and thunderstorm chance exists into the holiday. The good news: There will be long rain-free breaks, and regional drier conditions seem to coincide with fireworks displays tonight and Tuesday night. We still have to get a trough to slide across our region and begin to exit seaward, but this doesn’t happen fully until the end of the day Tuesday. We’ve had another significant wave of showers/rain during the overnight. We’re left with foggy areas and a general overcast across the region early this morning, but we’ll see more of an opportunity for clouds to break for intervals of sun, and we can’t rule out a few more showers and storms firing up during the day today, though coverage will be less than yesterday. Where they do occur though, heavy rain would be likely, and there is a low chance that a severe storm could occur with hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Any thunderstorms contain a lightning threat, so be aware of anything in the area if you have outdoor plans – not only today but tomorrow too. It looks fairly quiet this evening before another cluster of showers/storms comes through parts of the region during the overnight. This sets us up for one more round of scattered showers and storms on Tuesday somewhere midday to mid afternoon, with the greatest chance being near and south of I-90. It finally looks like this activity is outta here by evening and we can enjoy a weather-worry-free Independence Day evening, the only exception being some patchy fog in prone areas that if occurring early enough could make viewing fireworks “interesting”. High pressure builds in midweek with warmer, drier weather, and the next frontal boundary approaches by later Friday when a few showers and storms may be in the region. And an update on the wildfire smoke. Near-surface smoke may hang near the South Coast for a while today, otherwise it’s largely exited the region, and will stay away through the holiday into midweek. Some higher altitude smoke may drift in at times mid to late week, but not overly thick.

TODAY: Overcast start with areas of fog and possibly a lingering shower. Clouds break for sun at times but chance of a shower or thunderstorm midday and afternoon. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable, mainly S to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm – best chance overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible until mid afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 70, falling slightly later in the day. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W around 10 MPH late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, may cool back to the 70s coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point surpassing 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Frontal boundary in the region on the weekend of July 8-9 brings a shower and thunderstorm chance. This unsettled pattern may continue into the following week as well. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

General weak troughing dominating with humid conditions and a chance of showers/storms at times in this pattern. No major heat foreseen.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

Saturday was quite a nice day to start off the month of July if you ignore the low level wildfire smoke that reduced visibility and worsened air quality. Some of that hangs around today before being scoured out on Monday. Unsettled weather will be the theme of the next couple days as a low pressure trough swings through the region with a series of disturbances. Timing of these will be crucial for planned outdoor activities such as beach plans, cookouts, and fireworks displays. Today will be the day with the least favorable rainfall timing and most extensive cloud cover. The largest and longest-lasting shower episodes will take place this morning to mid afternoon from west to east across the region. It won’t rain in every WHW forecast area location the entire time, with the initial thrust to the north and west of Boston, and eventually further to the east and south, but even between this area and another that arrives later tonight there can be a few spotty showers and thunderstorms. The area that arrives late tonight will move out by dawn Monday. From midday on, and especially afternoon on Monday, we’ll have to watch for scattered showers and thunderstorms with the storm possibly strong to severe, especially west of the I-95 corridor. I suspect this activity takes a break in the evening before another disturbances later at night brings additional shower/storm chances. Current timing suggests that a shower and thunderstorm threat will exist Tuesday (Independence Day) morning before a break, and only isolated to widely scattered showers and storms for the afternoon hours, but any that do occur can contain very heavy downpours. If there’s any better news it’s that the coverage of these will be limited and that they should fade for evening fireworks displays in most if not all of the region. Midweek (Wednesday and Thursday) will be warm and summery with a weak area of high pressure moving in, but Thursday may feature some cooling coastal sea breezes.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Haze/smoke. Highs 73-80. Dew point rising to near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 64-71. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, may cool back to the 70s coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Unsure of timing of next frontal boundary and disturbance, later July 7 or July 8, for a shower/thunderstorm chance, but the overall pattern during this period looks more settled and seasonable with weak westerly or zonal flow dominating.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Weak flow pattern including the return of weak troughing may incite more unsettled weather for mid month with a lack of heat but high humidity. Fine-tuning to come of course.