Tuesday July 4 2023 Forecast (8:27AM)

116 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Independence Day weather will not be independent of unsettled conditions. But there is good news too! A quasi-stationary trough bisects the WHW as it runs southwest to northeast across the region. There is air convergence along this trough line and with the additional help from an upper trough passing overhead, showers and a few thunderstorms have been generated and moving across the region since late last evening (after a break yesterday). This is basically going to continue to be the story with waves of showers occurring – moving southwest to northeast across the region – this morning and midday. With the help of solar heating, one more round of showers and storms will be generated during the first half of the afternoon. The greatest threat for the heaviest rainfall with these will be in the vicinity of I-90 and southward, where torrential downpours can lead to flash flooding. The threat for severe thunderstorms is minimal as many of the parameters for that will be lacking, but keep in mind that any thunderstorm is capable of producing dangerous lightning, even if it is not frequent, and this threat should never be ignored, especially with so many outdoor plans for today. As we are dealing with that round of showers and storms, the upper trough axis will be just getting ready to exit the region from west to east, and the surface boundary will respond by starting to move eastward, ending the shower and storm threat from west to east during the second half of the afternoon. Any isolated showers and storms that may pop up behind this, further north, and west, will fade and dissipate by evening as the atmosphere becomes more stable. This sets the region up for much more favorable conditions for tonight’s fireworks displays. The only “issue” may be some areas of fog that form due to the lingering moisture near ground level. I don’t expect this to be extensive. Weak high pressure builds in for midweek with generally fair and warm to hot weather, still with fairly high humidity, for Wednesday and Thursday. Both days can feature slightly cooler sea breeze in coastal locations, and the pop up shower / t-storm threat is minimal, but I can’t rule it out 100%. Friday and Saturday, high pressure shifts slightly to the east and a more southerly air flow will be in place. This will continue the high humidity, but a southerly air flow tends to have more modified temperatures coming off the ocean water to the south, keeping significant heat from occurring. On these days, the South Coast would be “coolest” with a direct ocean wind. When we get to the end of the week – Friday and Saturday – we’ll be watching the approach of a frontal boundary from the west, but there are some indications that this boundary may not be close enough to trigger much of any shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday, and may do so only for western portions of the region Saturday. This part of the forecast is lower confidence and something to be monitored as the week goes on…

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy with episodic showers and possible thunderstorms until mid afternoon, with heaviest rainfall potential along of and south of I-90 during the first 4 hours of the afternoon. Variably cloudy with any showers/storms exiting to the east and any lingering isolated activity dissipating late afternoon / early evening. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable, mostly E, up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60+. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+ Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

116 thoughts on “Tuesday July 4 2023 Forecast (8:27AM)”

  8. Quick question: how much rain would you expect for today in Natick. We have had about two inches through this morning. As I understand it, precip will slide south and east later today and perhaps save evening events. Thanks.

  9. Thank you TK.

    I see showers will join my kids and grandkids in the first four hours of the afternoon south of the pike for a belated celebration of my birthday

    Oh yay 🙂 😉

    Overall though, I’m hoping the special celebrations scheduled tonight will be storm free. Enjoy the esplanade!!

  12. It has been so good to get back to the Bay of Fundy.

    At low tide, the tidal marshes are canyons, they have to be 20-25 ft deep. And then 6 hrs later, filled right to the top with chocolate brown water.

    The slopes of the beaches are mountainess in response to that water level change. I love tides so I could sit here the whole summer.

  13. July 4, 1826… On the 50th anniversary of the birth of our great nation, John Adam’s last words were, “Thomas Jefferson still lives.” He did not know Jefferson had died just five hours before

    In 1826, Daniel Webster’s Eulogy……”The concurrence of their death on the anniversary of Independence has naturally awakened stronger emotions,” Webster said. “It cannot but seem striking and extraordinary, that these two should live to see the fiftieth year from the date of that act, that they should complete that year, and that then, on the day which had fast linked forever their own fame with their country’s glory, the heavens should open to receive them both at once.”

    “As their lives themselves were the gifts of Providence, who is not willing to recognize in their happy termination, as well as in their long continuance, proofs that our country and its benefactors are objects of His care?”

    “To their country they yet live, and live for ever.”

  14. Happy Independence Day, everyone!

    Vicki, thank you so much for sharing the messages from our founders. I read and reread their writings frequently.

    They started what turned out to be a very successful social experiment named the United States of America.

    1. Happy Independence Day to you, Joshua, and to all. Our Founders sure were an amazing group of people….and I include Abagail who advised the gentlemen to “remember the ladies”

      “In a letter dated March 31, 1776, Abigail Adams writes to her husband, John Adams, urging him and the other members of the Continental Congress not to forget about the nation’s women when fighting for America’s independence from Great Britain.“

  15. Thank you TK!
    Happy 4th everyone!! With all of the rain it might be a good day to watch the Nathan’s hot dog eating competition with our local competitive eater Geoffrey Esper from Oxford MA, two towns over from me, who is ranked # 2 in the world only behind Joey Chestnut. Yes it’s glutinous and kind of gross, but oddly entertaining in a bizarre way.

    1. Wow. Oxford as you know is close to me also. I have never watched this. Do you have a time? Channel? With six kids inside, it might be entertaining

      1. I believe it’s going to be on at noon today on espn2. He has done a lot of the local eating establishment challenges and has completely decimated the competition and set some high records to break, I guess why he’s ranked #2 in the world.

    1. A “floody fourth” for some.

      The shower & t-storm threat lasting until it does may actually play perfectly into my slightly-more-than-slightly altered schedule for getting into the city. 🙂

  19. Now a flash flooding warning up for the northern parts of Hartford Tolland and Windham counties. Since Sunday parts of those counties have had a lot of rain.

  20. It poured buckets here overnight with thunder and lightning, but so far today, hasn’t done much at all. A few light showers here and there is about it. 🙂

  21. Thanks TK.

    Happy Independence Day to all!

    I was woken by brief boomers overnight. The forecasts were spot on. Of course I am in the minority here at WHW as I hate thunderstorms and they sound even scarier at night.

    I had iced coffee this morning. All is now good again as long as that early spring east wind doesn’t return for the rest of the summer. 🙂

    1. I am perhaps crazy, but I LOVE thunderstorms. Always will until the day lightning strikes my house, then I might change my mind.

      Several years ago lightning struck a house 4 doors down from us and started a big fire in the attic. It took months to repair the damage. Lightning is very very dangerous and I do have a healthy respect for it. BUT for now still LOVE thunderstorms. the louder the thunder, the better.

      Long ago (1972 or 73?), lightning struck very close. May have even hit the downspout of the 3-decker we were living in at the time. It blew out the color generator in our color TV and it cost me plenty to get that repaired. 🙂

      1. It hit the filter to the pool here last year. And a metal hammock hook on a tree behind our home in Framingham. I a tremendous respect for it too.

  26. SC. Found the hot dog show. It is in a lightning delay. I just recoded several shows on ESPN2

  27. From an early age, my mother always taught me to turn OFF the television during thunderstorms and I still adhere to that advice.

    Am I in the WHW minority on that as well? 😉

    Whenever I hear on the news about a house caught on fire during a severe storm I always wonder if a number of appliances were running at the time especially televisions.

    1. If you are in minority, I’m with you. We did the same. I had a friend who thought I was nuts. Until his tv blew into room from a lightning strike. I am told our house being new is grounded. I still unplug any appliance not in a surge protector

      I really do respect its power as well as its beauty.

  28. As for the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest, I personally find it DISGUSTING!!!

    When I see that particular segment on the local or national tv news, I look away.

    YUCK!!!

    If it were left up to me I would at least make the contestants eat the hot dogs with a bun.

  29. Now 74 with do 70! Getting SICK of this!
    Everything in the house is WET!!!’YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!

    1. It’s so bad, many of my keys on my computer keyboard re sticking and staying down. PATHETIC!!!!!

  30. Ill trade you guys the heat and dry weather down here for some cooler and wetter weather. I need rain for the cistern haha.

  31. Activity extends Westward all the way to Binghamton, NY.
    Is it all going to get out of here by 7-8 PM? I seriously doubt it.
    Just too much crap to sit through. That’s about 300 miles.
    At 30 mph, that’s 10 hours. at 40 mph, that’s 7.5 hours.
    at 50 mph, that’s 6 hours. Don’t think it is moving at 50 mph.

    although, It does appear to moving fairly quickly, so perhaps it will get on out of here. Perhaps activity will die down later as well?

    I wouldn’t bet on it.

  32. Thank you TK!

    RANDOM COMMENTS and QUESTIONS
    Hello and Happy 4th to All!
    Fireworks in Swampscott put off til the 5th.
    I am sort of thinking heaviest rain today will be 3-6 PM …?
    Sox game just got underway. They need to hurry up! Sox up 1-0 for the moment.
    I believe the hot dog eating record is 47 dogs in 10 minutes.
    There is a guy who lately has been beating Joey Chestnut for dogs eaten. Forgot his name.
    Climbed Cardigan this past Saturday … still smokey haze.
    My deck flowers are beaten up by constant rain … accepting all recommendations except bring them indoors.
    Restaurant recommendations in Bar Harbor??

    Thank you, Longshot

      1. They’re a strange team. They’ve been swept many times this season and they have swept teams many times this season. Feast or famine.

  33. Down in Rockaway Beach, NY – was already chased off beach at noon due to one line of storms moving like a turtle over us. Now back on beach only to watch storms fire up again to our west and start their slow drift this way

  34. Thanks TK.

    Just buckets of rain coming down again here in northern CT. Numerous flash flood warnings out and the streets of downtown Hartford are flooded with water rescues ongoing. Many areas are picking up another 2-4″ on top of the 3-5″ they already received in the last 48 hours.

    Per Ryan Hanrahan, Brainard Airport picked up just under 2″ of rain in 45 minutes in the last hour.

  35. A major storm to hit the Netherlands tomorrow. An intensifying area of low pressure that is located to the northwest of the country will have major impacts. The nation’s main airport Schiphol has already cancelled all incoming flights early tomorrow and through midday. There will be some heavy rain, though not the kind we get (they rarely get very heavy rain), but a `wester’ gale (8 on the Beaufort scale, in the coastal plain) with the possibility of hurricane force gusts (up to 110 to 120 km/hr) at the immediate coast will be the main issue. This is very typical in autumn and winter, but very rarely occurs in summer.

  39. According to Ryan Hanrahan the flash flooding warning in the Hartford metro area was upgraded to have a considerable tag attached to it.

    1. Starting about a week ago, I no longer can see anything in twitter links. What’s up with that? I used to be able to see them just fine.

        1. nope, not for me , especially since shithead Musk purchased it. that man is batshit crazy

  41. Just started raining here. A steady light rain, NOTHING heavy by any stretch. NO thunder and lightning.
    Not impressed by radar or by what’s coming down.
    The heavy crap is destined to other areas as outlined above.

    Even the echoes heading this way, diminished greatly as they approached my area. Don’t even have to shut windows (yet).
    leaving the house within 1/2 hour, so will shut them all then just in case. 🙂

    1. Raining harder here now. Not much wind, so windows remain open for now. Closing soon. 😉

  42. Happy 4th all . I hate when the weather disrupts big holidays as the 4th is an outside event . I’ll be slapping a big pork roast on the grill at 4pm , wish me luck lol . Hopefully fire & some leftover fireworks later

  43. I got sunshine and here the feel of Florida with dewpoints in the low 70s. Go to northern and parts of central CT a different story and certainly from the pictures flash flooding is happening.

  44. Mark, the rain totals in parts of Connecticut are really quite epic, given that this isn’t a tropical storm or hurricane.

    Thanks for sharing the data and images.

    1. It really has. Fortunately I am not in a flood prone area and we really need the rain. But it’s been way too much too fast in many places.

  45. Philip, I am with you on Joey Chestnut and the hotdog thing. Just hearing about it kind of turns my stomach. And then after I heard about it on the radio I saw lots of hotdogs being consumed during my run today. There were folks seated on the Cambridge side of the Charles, picnicking and waiting for the concert and fireworks. It’s great they’re enjoying themselves. And normally I’m fine with eating a hotdog or two, but smelling hotdogs after hearing about the contest and the numbers of frankfurters that Chestnut was about to devour (62) was a bit much.

  46. Here is that shot I took from Manchester CT last evening of the rainbow that formed as a strong thunderstorm was passing just to our southeast. Nice full arc, was pretty cool while it lasted!

    https://imgur.com/9hkg99W

  48. Lots of thunder and lightning here along with off and on torrential rain. South of here in Providence looks much worse.

  51. I received an alert on my phone to evacuate the Boston POPS Concert at the Esplanade due to severe weather. I was on the bus on my way home from work and many other passengers received it as well.

    Did anyone here at WHW get it?

  52. Wicked thunderstorm in Taunton about an hour ago. 1.5” in about 20 minutes. Continuous lightning that caused us to lose power. We’ve been without power for about an hour.

    1. Hearing Middleboro got hit pretty good also. It is so dark and gloomy and certainly doesn’t feel like the 4th of July. Plymouth just posted that their fireworks are still on.

  53. Philip, I got the emergency alert, too. I live practically next to the Esplanade. I feel for for the many folks who are now milling around Beacon Hill and Back Bay in the rain. I just saw many of them as I was doing shopping at a local Whole Foods.

    I agree with Sue that it’s so dark and gloomy it doesn’t look like July 4th. But, it is July 4th so what better way to celebrate than with a tune from Stevie Wonder’s “Hotter than July” album:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4n27JuJhXc

  54. Son and family were here We watched the storms go theough RI on radar. They live in Lincoln RI

    Kids here were in the pool but hears the thunder from CT storms and came in. Crazy it was thar loud

    TK assume you are in the esplanade??

  55. Tough break for Plymouth as rain has stopped but malfunction in the fireworks ignition system & show is off !!!

  56. Just an interesting tid bit. The first song for the pops….the battle hymn of the republic …. Was sung in public for the first time ever in my church. Plymouth church of Framingham.

  57. That storm I mentioned earlier will now shut down Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam entirely from 9am to noon, and practically shut it down (a few exceptions for take-offs) from 5am until 3pm. At the coast they’re now expecting 120 km/hr wind gusts (close to 75 mph). Schiphol is not at the coast, but it’s close enough. I certainly expect ~105 km/hr (65 mph) gusts there. While that has happened in July before, it’s extremely rare to have such a powerful storm in summer. It’s not a tropical depression. It originated near Iceland, in fact. A possible explanation is the unusual warmth of the North Atlantic.

  58. Just came from the Plymouth fireworks, they were not canceled. However the fog that rolled in made for extremely poor viewing. A shame that all that money was spent for a disappointing experience. But, no one can control Mother Nature.

    3. Yes the comments on Facebook are nonstop. There was a troll post saying it was canceled due to malfunctioning of equipment, people suck !!

  59. The storm hitting the Netherlands has been named Poly. It may exceed the power of a July storm from 2015 (top wind gust then was 122 km/hr). I was not in Holland then. I recall a few July storms in the 1980s. But I think this one may be more powerful than any of the July storms on record there.

  62. Now east of Halifax, NS and we have had heavy rain the last 2-3 hrs.

    Guessing 1+ inch of rain in that time frame. Back edge nearing, so hopefully the heavy stuff will taper soon.

  63. Tom, the satellite image you sent is Poly indeed. An unusual sight for July 5th. It took aim at the Northern provinces of the Netherlands. Just like anywhere slight wobbles make a big difference. The area of low pressure deviated about 25 to 30 miles north from the predicted track, enough to prevent more widespread damage to the major cities. There was plenty of damage everywhere and a few deaths, too, unfortunately, including one in Haarlem and one in Amsterdam (trees that fell onto cars). This storm did break a record for July in the Netherlands, as one wind gust was reported (and officially confirmed) at 123 km/hr (76 mph), beating the previous record set in July 2015 by 1 km/hr.

    1. You said max wind gust was 76 mph?
      Hmmm seems to me too many trees came down.
      Makes me question the root system of those trees.
      They seem to come down rather easily. I don’t get it.
      Something seems amiss. 🙂

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