Friday September 11 2026 Forecast (7:37AM)

63 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

A little more tweaking in the shorter term forecast as details on the weekend trough / low pressure system become more clear. You may remember a few days ago I mentioned this weekend looking great, and all guidance reflected that idea of high pressure in control the entire time with fair weather. But guidance is not always so good, and sometimes it leads us astray, which it did in this case for me. So now we talk about a bit of a split this weekend. But before that, we do have a nice day today with high pressure in control, building in from the west. A ribbon of high clouds provided a nice sunrise if you were up for it, but sunshine will be abundant today along with dry air and a northwesterly breeze. As high pressure moves overhead tonight, winds die off and radiational cooling takes hold. The temperature spread you saw on my previous forecast will definitely not be adequate enough to cover the range in temperature we will see for later tonight to Saturday morning for low temperatures, where the normal colder spots can drop to around 40 while the urban areas can stay at or above 50. The high will still have enough influence so that our weather is fair on Saturday, to start the weekend, but you’ll notice more high to mid level cloudiness starting to show up later on ahead of our next trough – the one initially underestimated by guidance. This system will move through during Sunday. An initial disturbance going by just to our southeast will toss a batch of moisture our way with rain and embedded heavier showers moving through the region Sunday morning to midday from southwest to northeast. This will be followed by a clearing trend and some sunshine should return to the region during the afternoon in the same progression the rain had. You will notice another spike in humidity during Sunday. A cold front still has to move through and will do so later at night with a shower threat. High pressure builds in during Monday and Tuesday with fair weather and lower humidity again. Previously, I had this progression faster and hinted at much warmer weather Tuesday than we will probably end up with, but it will still be on the mild side.

TODAY: High clouds can filter the early-day sun, then brighter sun with just a few passing fair-weather clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Patchy high clouds but mainly clear. Lows 40-47 valleys, swamps, and bogs, 47-54 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH dropping to calm.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun, but more high and middle clouds later. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Fog patches overnight. Rain potential South Coast toward dawn. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Cloudy start with a period of rain in the morning to midday, steadiest and longest-lasting I-95 belt eastward, including embedded heavier showers, as well as patchy fog. Clouds break for sun afternoon. Humid. Highs 70-77. Wind variable becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. An additional shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifts to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Warm, fair weather September 16. Shower chance September 17. Dry, cooler later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Shower chances greatest September 24-25, with fair weather expected leading up to that. Temperatures variable, but not too far from normal. Autumnal equinox is at 8:05 p.m. EDT on September 22.

63 thoughts on “Friday September 11 2026 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Yes, Sunday, on many models now looks wet. But, there are still a couple out there that aren’t quite as wet, so, not 100% consistency yet.

    Wordle: 3 BUT …. my starter word uncovered ALL 5 letters, all in the wrong place.

    In those split seconds after I hit enter, to see 5 yellows show up on the first line was kind of neat. 🙂

    Reply

  2. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026091100&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026091100&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026091100&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026091100&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Re: Sunday, deluge on the GFS and NAM. The Euro almost says, “what rain” and the RRFS A has an impressive rain band, but its just south of the south coast.

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  3. September showing tonight.

    As TK forecasts, a cool night coming with high pressure coming closer and closer, low dewpoints, lighter winds and much longer nights are going to work in tandem to create a cool overnight.

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  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    66 up from 64 with dp 50. Ahhhhhhh!!!!!

    Ocean: 67 still hanging in there.

    Wordle: 3
    I used the random word approach again and got 1 letter out of position. Next guess got me 1 in position and 1 out of position.
    I had a good 3rd guess. 7 letters were eliminated so that limited my choices such that I got it in 3.

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  5. re; CH 4 Weather Graphics

    We rarely watch ch 4 (CBS) since CBS decided to can Stephen Colbert. No matter what they say, it was a political decision as CBS supports that fascist Pig trump! Unless we absolutely have to, channel 4 is not on our TV.

    Given that, recently there was football on ch 10 and ch5 so we watched 4 and saw the graphics with Eric. I didn’t mind it at all.
    I thought it was pretty cool.

    Reply

    1. While I agree re ch 4 and Colbert, Eric is a favorite. I rarely watch weather on tv. I tend to ck each of my favorites (3) online.

      Reply

  6. Almost like Tom, my first Wordle guess gave me four letters all out of position. By rearranging those and adding one other letter I was lucky to get it in 2.

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  12. Thanks TK!

    Yes Jimmy James never forget 9/11/01. I was a young Assistant Principal in a high school in Brooklyn that morning. Amazingly no parents from our school perished – many of who were firefighters and police officers. Sadly, though I knew six people who lost their lives that day. The world was never the same after 8am.

    I did see a very powerful and chilling recap of the morning from 8-10 that day on Fox and Friends. In many ways I still can’t believe it happened even 25 years later. Also read by next year there will be more people alive in the US who either were not born or too young to remember that day.

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    1. Thank God no parents from your school lost their lives. Like you, I remember watching the towers fall on TV and thinking models were being used as a simulation.

      The son of my husband’s cousin worked at Cantor Fitzgerald. It occupied floors 101-105 in the north tower. He and a few friends had planned a fishing trip for that day so he was not at work. He lost 658 coworkers and friends.

      Reply

  13. I was a senior in high school and the TV was on in the cafeteria where we had study hall. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. I was in my sociology class when I and my classmates saw the towers collapse.

    Reply

    1. I hadn’t changed careers yet and was an accountant.

      We didn’t have a TV in the rehab center I worked at, where they had the finances wing. And, of course, the cell phones and internet weren’t as advanced as they are today.

      So, I really didn’t get an understanding of what happened until I got home around 6pm.

      25 years. ,…… That is basically how many years I was born after WWII ended and I always thought the end of WWII was forever ago and so, I assume today’s very young people see 9/11 as something that happened forever ago.

      Reply

      1. I was born only 2 years after the end of WWII.
        I do not and never have considered that forever ago.
        And don’t get me going on where we might be headed.

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  14. The NAM, which I put less stock in now with the rise of RRFS A is trending even wetter for Sunday.

    If the hit models (GFS and others) verify for Sunday morning, they may need to hoist some flood watches and there would be opportunities for flooding Sunday morning up to early afternoon.

    Some of the rain simulations look very heavy, even convective.

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  15. The 9/11 attacks took place as I was just arriving at work. It all seemed unreal as I started to realize what was happening.

    I worked for Oracle, as did Todd Beamer, who is remembered for his part in the revolt on Flight 93 and his words “Are you ready? Okay. Let’s roll.” All together, Oracle lost eight people. Oracle is a huge company and I did not know any of them.

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        1. The only thing I will say is that often this summer rain events under performed. Not saying this will, but one never knows.

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    1. Its this area that largely contributed to August being so warm, taken as a whole, across the lower 48

      And the first half of the month in this area may produce another record warm month.

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  18. Thanks, TK!

    74 luscious degrees!

    Happy New Year to all celebrating Rosh Hashanah starting tonight!!!

    May the new year bring us all peace, joy and love!

    Shanah Tova!

    Reply

        1. What I am looking at with the Euro is rain ESE of us but close enough to give eastern MA at least a drink of water. I wonder if I am looking at this the right way.

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    1. This should be fun at the campground.

      We have done the fall fling at a campground in south plymouth.

      We dropped the camper in our site on Labor Day and it stays there until Columbus Day and we can camp btwn now and then.

      Obviously, I camp the weekends. My wife, whose schedule is a little more flexible does Friday to Monday.

      Reply

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