Saturday September 12 2026 Forecast (7:21AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

A 50/50 fair/foul weekend. Today’s the fair day, high pressure atop the region for a cool start, then sliding offshore for a milder afternoon as we see plenty of sun, but an increase in high to mid level clouds later on, ahead of the “50 / foul”, which is in response to a trough of low pressure moving through on Sunday. A surface low will form and move across the region, with plenty of moisture to drawn from, so it now seems a significant rainfall occurs over several hours from Sunday morning to about mid afternoon – progression generally southwest to northeast for both start and end of rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.50 should be widespread, but there will be pockets that exceed 1.50 and rainfall rates that can be high enough to result in some flooding issues, particularly in RI and southeastern MA. Improvement comes late in the day as the low starts to pull away. An additional cold front needs to cross the region in the pre-dawn hours of Monday, and that can bring a passing shower. Monday and Tuesday will be fair, less humid days after a spike of high humidity with Sunday’s system. Monday we’ll have a northwesterly breeze as the drier air advects in behind the front, and Tuesday’s weather will be tranquil under high pressure. Wednesday, the high slides offshore, and we see the return of some late summer warmth and a bit of humidity to go with it.

TODAY: Abundant sun then high clouds arrive late. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Fog patches overnight. Rain potential South Coast toward dawn. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog until mid afternoon with rain likely, along with embedded heavier downpours – particularly RI & southeastern MA. Rain departs and clouds break for sunshine west to east later on. High humidity. Highs 68-75 (may occur late-day). Wind variable, mostly S to SW, 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. An additional shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifts to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 49-56. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Still warm but a shower chance September 17 as a cold front passes through the region. Cooler/drier briefly after that, then some additional unsettled weather may roll through the region with another trough and disturbance from the west, departing in time for a fair final full day of astronomical summer.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 8:05 p.m. EDT September 22. Pattern looks mostly dry in this stretch of days heading into late month, maybe a brief shower threat a couple times with some changeable temperatures trending slightly cooler.

61 thoughts on “Saturday September 12 2026 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    55 up from 54 with dp 48

    Ocean: 66

    Wordle: phew 6. My random word didn’t do much for me. Almost didn’t get the word today.

    Reply

    1. Great getting it. Not an unfamiliar word but an odd one. I thought for a while before trying it.

      I’m having fun with your word finder. I use the word for first guess and then whichever of my usual first two starter words that has the fewer duplicate letters.

      Reply

  5. Thanks TK !

    I’ll be joining JpDave in the 6 car 🙂

    I started a campfire around 6pm last night and it was still around 70F then, but by 9:30pm, we were huddled around it staying warm. I think nearby Wareham had 56F at that point. It was great sleeping weather. Warming up quickly now.

    Reply

  6. The Sox offense is asleep, and their pitching has not been quite as solid. Result: they have lost 3 straight, at home, to the Angels and Royals.

    The good news: the Blue Jays and Rangers can’t buy a win either, so the Sox maintain a 7 game cushion for a wild card spot and a 5 game lead for the second spot over Cleveland.

    They need Contreras back. I want Ceddanne back for center field, he swings too much for me though, sometimes swinging at stuff 5+ inches out of the strike zone and Roman Anthony needs to perform at a better offensive level.

    Reply

    2. It probably doesn’t matter anyway but the final pitch thrown to Anthony last night was definitely a BALL. He shouldn’t have swung at it.

      Swinging at bad pitches, not swinging at good pitches down the middle. The 2026 edition of the Red Sox lineup, especially at home. 😉

      Reply

  7. The Red Sox have been playing quite “foul” for the past 3 games. They do maintain a 5-game lead in the WC, but AFAIC they are definitely “whistling in the dark”.

    Reply

  9. Well, looking out 9-10 days out now on the 00z euro op run and that sprawling, 1,040 mb high in southeast Canada is nowhere to be found. Incredibly poor inconsistency.

    The good news is, we’re entering the seasons where the 500 mb flow and 850 mb temps can be mild to warm and yet, with a sfc east wind and cloud cover, it might only be 60F for a high.

    But, if today’s run verifies, gone around the equinox is the sunny, 63F day with NW winds and dps in the 30s and low 40s. Instead, it might be a 63F high with an east wind and a 55F dp with some unsettled weather to our south. Same sensible weather high temp, achieved for a very different setup.

    Reply

  10. Sox are in the post season. All that matters now. I mean GO SOX in the rest of the games, but ya know.

    Patriots real fans will stick by them (like me), regardless. A bunch of people already declared season over. Not real fans. Bye! Don’t watch another game please – because you don’t deserve to. 😉

    Bruins pre-season games are only a couple weeks away!

    Reply

    2. Although I am extremely disappointed, I have not given up
      on the Patriots Season. I truly expected more from Drake Maye.
      His play was abysmal with piss-poor decision making! That had better improve or they are in deep trouble.

      Reply

      1. I hope not after one game!

        Yes, the end of game 1 was disappointing for sure. It was not a great game by Maye, and there were some bad decisions. He’ll be better.

        Reply

  11. We are about 24 outs out from a potential rain event commencing and the models are still all over the place. PATHETIC!!!!
    Waiting on the RRFS

    The difference between the HRRR and the 3KM NAM is unbelievable!!!!!!!

    Reply

  15. Thanks TK.

    Definitely a great setup for a short but intense rain event over southeast New England tomorrow. It’ll be coming down in torrents for a couple of hours. Maybe a brief tornado/waterspout for the Cape/Islands too, we’ve seen a number of setups like this before where that has happened.

    I see a generally drier look to the longer term, likely through most of the rest of September. But starting to get towards the time of year where the tropics and mid-latitudes can start to interact with each other and create surprises, and we know the subtropical jet is gonna come alive early and intensely this year. So we’ll see how that looks into October.

    Zero hurricanes in the Atlantic so far, the latest ever into the season that’s happened in the satellite era. While I wouldn’t quite call it “likely”, I think there’s a real chance we go the entire season without any.

    Reply

    1. Always to great to see you here, WxW!
      Thanks for your insights, especially for the threat of a spinup down in our area tomorrow!

      Reply

        2. Hopefully not the 3-6 niches that were on the noon runs. It’s the same date three years ago that we got 13 inches over three days.

          Reply

    1. Thanks JpDave !

      Oppressive dps over 70F make it to Long Island, South coast and MV and Nantucket tomorrow.

      This is a ripple of weak low pressure with the warm front. Wouldn’t shock me to see a cell or 2 with some rotation tomorrow in the mentioned areas with the 70F+ dewpoints tomorrow.

      Reply

  23. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026091221&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs&p=850wh&rh=2026091221&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    SSE winds at the surface and SSW winds at 850 mb, so the wind is backing a bit with height. Some semblance of weak low pressure moving along. It’s a small chance, but an EF 0 or a water spout in those 70F+ dps would not surprise me along the immediate south coast tomorrow.

    Reply

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