DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
And now to the unsettled portion of the weekend 50/50. There is some good news though: The rain coming in will be beneficial as much of the region does still remain in a longer-term deficit going back through the start of this year. So this will help in that regard. It won’t help in regard to the potential flooding from fairly high rainfall rates later today, particularly over RI and southeastern MA, where we can see embedded thunder and even the remote chance of a brief, weak tornado if any convective cells can get organized enough. The rest of the region sees more of a general moderate to borderline heavy rainfall moving in this morning and moving out by day’s end. This all comes from a wave of low pressure developing and moving northeastward across our region, its center crossing southeastern MA around mid afternoon. As this moves offshore it will take the rain with it and some clearing starts to work in from the west toward the end of the day. But with the sunset now just prior to 7 p.m., areas to the west of Boston stand the greatest chance of seeing any sun before it goes down. Some clearing takes place this evening before another batch of clouds arrives overnight to first thing Monday morning with a cold front crossing the region. This front can produce a few showers. The balance of Monday ends up dry and breezy behind the front with today’s humidity being replace by drier air. High pressure builds in with abundant sunshine for Tuesday – a cool morning and a milder afternoon. High pressure shifts offshore at midweek when we see generally fair but warmer and somewhat more humid weather. For now, it looks like the next frontal system will hold off until at least late Thursday (maybe beyond).
TODAY: Cloudy as rain overspreads the region this morning and continues into afternoon before tapering off from southwest to northeast later in the day, including embedded heavier downpours with thunder potential, especially RI and southeastern MA. Areas of fog forming. Clouds break from west to east late. Humid. Highs 66-73. Wind S shifts to E 5-15 MPH, but variable across Cape Cod where brief strong gusts can occur with any downpours / t-storms.
TONIGHT: Clearing evening, then clouds return overnight with a shower chance. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Early clouds and a shower chance particularly eastern areas, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 49-56. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
Current expected timing suggest a cold front moves through with a shower threat early September 18, followed by fair weather to start the weekend (September 19), then another unsettled threat around September 20-21 before fair weather returns at the end of the period, just in time for the Autumnal Equinox which occurs at 8:05 p.m. EDT on September 22.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
Early days of autumn have the outlook of one unsettled threat around September 24 and a general cooling trend.
Everything on track…
Onset orientation: Check.
Timing: Mostly check, a tiny bit slower.
Heaviest in southeastern areas: Check.
Good morning and thank you TK
68/61
oxean: 66
Wordle: 4
Nice 4. Hopping on the car with you. I’m having fun with the word finder even if it didn’t give me any letters today for the first time
Welcome. I used the random word again and got ZILCH with first word. Can we say we really got it in 3??? 🙂
Great, JpDave !
Thanks TK!
Thanks!
Wordle 5. Had 2 yellows through 4, which left only the position for them on 5, only one word left.
Very nice TJammer!
Nice 5
Very nice !
Thank you, TK.
64/63 low of 59
Wordle 4
Great Vicki !
Thank you!
Thanks TK
I-95 south in Greenwich CT
https://x.com/Danbury_WX/status/2099122490568032285
From Ryan Hanrahan
https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2099123096049320320
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KBDR&hours=72
Rain has commenced here. Very light so far.
Local radar
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Thanks JpDave.
I can hear big raindrops starting to hit the camper. We are just northeast of the northern tip of Buzzards Bay, looks like we are a few minutes from being under that red banding.
I got Wordle in 4.
Welcome to the 4 car. Nice
Great SClarke !
Very nice. Welcome from me also!!
I give the short range models credit, having that secondary heavier band in northern Mass.
Thanks, TK!
Rain started here about 15-20 minutes ago.
Wordle: 4 (I was doing that !!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Excellent!!!
Well done.
I almost wish that I missed this one.
Excellent!!!!
Southern Fairfield County in CT taking it on the chin with the rain.
From Ryan Hanrahan
https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2099130393848942769
Flash Flood Warning for areas just south of us:
The National Weather Service in Norton has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for…
Southwestern Bristol County in southeastern Massachusetts…
Bristol County in Rhode Island…
Kent County in Rhode Island…
Newport County in Rhode Island…
Southern Providence County in Rhode Island…
Northeastern Washington County in Rhode Island…
* Until 145 PM EDT.
* At 1046 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. The expected rainfall rate is 1
to 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches
are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD…Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE…Radar indicated.
IMPACT…Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include…
Providence, Fall River, Warwick, Cranston, East Providence,
Coventry, Dartmouth, North Providence, South Kingstown, West
Warwick, Johnston, North Kingstown, Newport, Bristol, Somerset,
Portsmouth, Barrington, Middletown, Narragansett and Swansea.
Yup, in Wareham, we just entered the red band.
Very heavy rain !!
Do you have the boat ready?
We should have 🙂
The dirt road in front of me is a running stream and we have a few running through our site, as the site is ever so slightly tilted, which is good, cause when they are flat, you get the deep puddles.
Torrential rain in Padanaram – looks like a waterfall out of my drain pipe
Yes
Ok, this is nuts !!!!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850t_anom&rh=2026091300&fh=360&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2026091300&fh=384&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png
If we’re going to have cool air masses later in the month and we probably will have cool days, it’s not because cool, dry air is in from Canada, it’s because we’ll have easterly flow and cloud cover with unsettled weather to our south. Days where it’s 63F by day, but only 55-60F at night.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026091300&fh=330
Everything on track. The areas expected to see 2-4 inches of rain in fact will, and some significant flooding, as you know, has already occurred and can continue for a while.
The events that are not often caught by medium range guidance but suddenly picked up by shorter range guidance often end up rather potent. Something goes on there that the lower res models miss. Interesting case studies for future improvement.
Really pouring now. 0.67″ since the event started.
We need a bigger boat! 🙂
Wow. Our 0.40 pales in comparison
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=E2725&hours=72
1.43” in nearby Wareham.
I think the heavy band has edged north of us as it’s definitely eased some.
1.25″
0.58″ in the last half-hour.
Downtown Westport, CT
Posted by Meteorologist Jim Cantore
https://x.com/JimCantore/status/2099164960731308163
From eweather13
https://x.com/Eweather13/status/2099162487228621007
From Jack Drake in Bridgeport, CT
https://x.com/Danbury_WX/status/2099174001587126693
Sorry to see this, but not surprised with the rainfall rates.
https://weather.us/radar-us/massachusetts/reflectivity/KBOX.html#play-0-12-5
72F dp with a S wind at Block Island overrunning E and SE winds in most of the rest of southern New England.
That first hand this morning has kind of dissolved, but there are more and more heavy elements moving NE while the whole system itself, translates slowly eastward.
https://weather.us/radar-us/rhode-island/reflectivity/KBOX_20260913-165129z.html
When we go under one of the reds, the visibility drops like in winter with heavy snow, it escalates to torrential.
We have 1.25″ so far.
Pictures are confirming the radar estimates
Thank you TK! Rain is coming down hard in Plymouth.
Wordle: 3
Outstanding!
Superb, Sue !
Exactly 2.00″
Making a rainy visit to the farm for the first batch of apple cider donuts for the season today!
I LOVE days like today. I’m thinking of going with sandals, shorts, and a light jacket. Humid, rainy, mild. These days are SO invigorating for me both physically and mentally.
“When it rains, it rains
All the colors in my paintbox
When it rains, it rains
Tickets for the front row seats
Up on the rooftops
Orange and lemon (Apples and cherries)
Raincoats roll and tumble
Together, dropped in diamond disarray
Ballet for a rainy day
Silent film of melting miracle play
Dancing out there through my window
Behind the curtain silver falling
Ballet for a rainy day
Silent film of melting miracle play
Dancing out there through my window
To the backdrop of a slow descending grey”
-Andy Partridge (XTC – “Ballet For A Rainy Day”)
As of 1PM ONLY 0.5 inch at Logan and that sounds about right to me given what I have seen outside my window and out at the store in the past hour or so.
This was mostly light to moderate rain here with only brief bursts of heavier rain.
They’ll come in lower than everyone else – count on it. 😉
because they will really get less OR because their rain gauge is a piece of shit?
A lot of the ASOS gauges are bad. The NWS is aware of it.
They are right in line with closest gauge
Between Noon and 1PM New Bedford picked up 1.2 inches of rain. As of 1Pm about 2.43 inches and still raining.
Sfc low is btwn Block Island and Martha’s Vineyard.
Block Islands wind just came around to NW
Back end is approaching fairly quickly, but it is still out around Springfield.
I just watched a movie I saw a long time ago. This movie is from 1963.
A Boy 10 Feet Tall
Not widely available, but is on this site for free.
https://ok.ru/video/290463287971
Trailer:
A boy 10 feet high trailer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yajy1avLo7U
I heard on WEEI that AJ Brown will now miss 6 games.
I’m with TK, love rainy days like today. I ran 8 miles in the rain this late morning. It was lovely.
Nice!!
Welcome stranger.
Hmmmm have we met before? Does JP stand for Juxtaposed Position? Jell-o Pie? Juicy Pears? Jack-o-latern Purveyor? Just Poopin’? Joke Police? Jorts Philosopher? Joint Problem?
How about Jamaica Plain.
I agree. I have enjoyed today. And very nice to see you here. I hope all is well
All is about as well as one could hope. I wish the same for all here! (I get too swamped to go online much during the summer)
Sending positive thoughts. And happy to see you whenever you have the chance
1.05 here.
2.80″ final total.
The Red Sox game today was scheduled at 1:35 PM; moved to 3:05 PM due to the rain; and actually got started at 4:55 PM. So the actual rain delay was 3 hours, 20 minutes. I never thought the 3:05 PM stood much of a chance.
They are up 4-1 in top of the 9th.
Sox won. On to Texas for a Tuesday game.
On this date in 1928, a CAT 5 hurricane destroyed Puerto Rico’s crops – pretty much a clean wipe-out, along with 200,000+ structures and also taking the lives of over 300 people.
As you now, we have now gotten to the latest date since 1941 without a hurricane in the Atlantic, and we’ll continue to add to that in the days ahead.
Don’t see a thing in the Atlantic (except some showers maybe), the Gulf, the Caribbean, or in Africa for that matter.
Meanwhile we are at letter “N” in the eastern Pacific.
This is the classic version of El Nino tropics, to the extreme in the Atlantic with lack of activity, not quite nearly extreme in the Pacific, but just very active there as would be typical.
I’ll be talking more soon about the POSITIVE aspects of El Nino. The media makes it sound nothing but negative. Well, there’s another side to the coin, and they ignore it (on purpose – and we know why). I’ll not be ignoring that here. 🙂
Fog rolling back in. The drive from my daughter’s house and here takes me over an area that has great views of valleys below. Mark was there for a softball (I think) game a few years ago.
The fog settled in the valleys was eerie and stunning.
Nice !
❤️
Surrounded by obs that show 4” of rain fell where, we are camping.
That dropped to 1.44” in Marshfield, still quite a healthy amount.
Looks like Logan got 0.84”
The biggest rain fell in areas with the biggest rainfall deficits and labeled as severe drought.
Don’t know how much soaked into the ground down there, with those rainfall rates, but I visibly saw the small lakes rise a decent amount.
I guess my only concern with virtually no tropical activity (such low ACE) in the Atlantic Basin is …….
It’s the hurricanes that play an extremely important role in releasing heat from the oceans.
If there’s going to be none released this season, then the paradox can be you head into the cold season with more heat in the oceans and then that can create stronger winter systems because of potential bigger contrasts btwn continental cold and warmer ocean.
I mean, just look at how much it rained along the south coast today, where water temps in still in the mid 70s.
It would be nice to release some of the heat from the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE US coastline where ocean temps are ….well ….. a lot warmer than the mid 70s.
Interesting. Thank you Tom