Monday September 14 2026 Forecast (7:18AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

A cold front moves offshore early this morning taking any showers with it. This will be followed by a breezy, drier day with sunshine returning, though passing fair weather clouds will dot the sky as well. High pressure builds over the region tonight and Tuesday with fair weather and lighter wind. This promotes a cool night tonight, and a nice rebound to milder air Tuesday afternoon. The high moves offshore, bringing in warmer late summer air for midweek – Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front approaches later Thursday, especially evening and nighttime with lots of clouds and the potential for showers, which will then depart on Friday as another area of high pressure moves in behind the front with a return to fair weather.

TODAY: Early clouds with scattered showers mainly I-95 belt eastward, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches late night. Lows 45-52, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban centers and coast. Wind N dropping to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Abundant sunshine. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant until mid afternoon then more clouds late. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with potential showers early, then clearing. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Guidance is not consistent in the medium range so it doesn’t aid much in forecast confidence, but current expectations are for weather to start and finish the September 19-20 weekend with an interruption from a passing disturbance somewhere between there, bringing a shower chance. There are a few indications of a more significant trough pushing another shower threat into the region early next week – but uncertain. The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 8:05 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Trend is for only a brief shower threat somewhere early or mid period with otherwise mostly fair weather and slight cooling trend in the early days of autumn.

61 thoughts on “Monday September 14 2026 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    66/60

    Ocean: 66

    Wordle: 5. Got NOTHING with 1st guess. Lousy guesses all along.

    1. Glad you got it.

      It’s so much about luck. Yesterday’s word finder gave me zilch for first guess. Today, it Gave me three letters (out of order) for my first guess. It adds a layer of fun even if it doesn’t always help

      Wordle 3.

  7. I feel better after reading TK’s first sentence in his day 6-10 outlook.

    “Guidance is not consistent in the medium range so it doesn’t aid much in forecast confidence”

    I understand its not going to be as consistent compared to hrs 0 – 120, but one might expect some bigger picture consistency, ie general placement of bigger features) but even the bigger picture items, some of them, are not consistent.

  8. Although Autumn weather can be absolutely beautiful, there isn’t always a lot of action. We are kind of stuck in between severe weather Season and full-on Winter. And with El Nino, not sure what we will get in the way of Winter. I guess I am relegated to trying to enjoy the beautiful Autumn weather we get around here, even if it can be a bit boring.

  11. im not liking the El-Nino and +Indian dipole look for Australia im worried with all this heavy green vegetation drying out and becoming fuel later this year.

    1. Does Australia have a fire season like US West? Exacerbated by an El Nino season?

      How are you enjoying things down under?

      Did you ever meet up with or text with my Niece Who lives in
      Beaumaris, across the bay from where you are. 🙂

  13. Today, earth is 1 million miles closer to the sun than it was on July 6th, at aphelion.

    On July 6th, earth was 94.503 million miles away.

    Today, it’s 93.503 million miles away.

    Sounds like a lot by the number, but ….. 1 million miles is about the earth-moon distance 4 times. And we are around 4,000 of those from the sun, so 4/4,000 =0.001 so, in the scheme of things, it’s not as much as it seems. And, we’ve lost 20 degrees of sun angle, so even though the sun hitting the top of the atmosphere is 2% stronger than in July, what’s getting through the atmosphere is obviously weaker than July since it has to go through so much more atmosphere at a lower angle.

  14. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2026091412&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2026091412&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2026091412&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Thursday/Thursday evening into Friday showing next potential for 60s dew points. RRFS A only out to Thursday morning, as I post this.

    There is a boundary projected to be to our north, if that has a stronger high than currently simulated, it could end further south of us more quickly and our dps in the 60s would last less.

  15. 70/58

    Our lawn guy is coming tomorrow to put in a new lawn. We’ve had grubs and drought throughout the past years, so it’s time for some new grass. So, looking to the forecast for some nice showers for the new lawn. Thank goodness it wasn’t put in on Friday as the grass seed would be down the drain after yesterday’s soaker!

  18. At least on pivotal weather, the 12z GFS op run is stuck at hr 111.

    This is a pleasant surprise and probably how far out that model should run all the time.

    1. I absolutely agree. What a day. Window open in the front and slider in the back. There has been a breeze is going through the house all day and it’s heavenly

  21. With the Red Sox magic number at #6, what other team(s) combinations are needed to make the playoffs? Are the Yankees involved?

    I never understood the “magic number” concept.

    1. Blue Jays and Rangers. Perhaps the Guardians are in the mix. All these teams are fighting for a playoff spot. Losses by these teams improves the magic number for the Sox.

      In fact, I think the Sox are off to play the Rangers starting Tuesday night.

    2. Philip: I am not 100% sure of how the wild card scenario works, but I am going to give it try.

      If the season ended today, the Yankees, Red Sox and Cleveland would all make the AL playoffs as wild card teams.

      The fourth place team in the wild card race is Toronto. They are one game behind Cleveland. So, throughout the next two weeks, the combination of Red Sox wins and Toronto (or any other “bubble” teams) adding up to six and Red Sox make the playoffs. That’s why six is the Magic Number today.

      The Red Sox are off tonight and the Blue Jays play Detroit. If Toronto loses tonight, then I think the Magic Number is five.

      I understand it better when there are two teams battling for one spot.

      When there are three spots and there are still 10 teams vying for those three sports, I am a little lost! 🙂

      I still remember the days when the winner of AL played the winner of the NL in the World Series. There were no playoffs!

      I hope that helps, Philip! 🙂

  23. On this date in 2020…
    *Hurricane Paulette in the western Atlantic, passing NW of Bermuda.
    *Tropical Depression Rene (downgraded from TS) in the open central Atlantic.
    *Hurricane Sally in the northeastern Gulf.
    *Tropical Storm Teddy well south on the edge of the MDR, far east of the Lesser Antilles.
    *Tropical Storm Vicky off the western coast of Africa.

    On this date in 2026…

    *Nothing. And we’ve still had no hurricanes.

    Yup, variation is the name of the game and always has been. This is a pretty extreme case as far as our recorded history of these things goes though.

      1. It’s cooling off quick and it’s not calm exactly, so this was a sneaky, chilly airmass that came in today.

        Mt Washington is 32F.

        1. Still mid 60s right on the coast where the wind is up.

          The temp on Mt. Washington is reflective of colder air aloft.

          The wind has dropped off inland where it’s now in the 50s.

          Pretty much on track – nothing sneaky. 🙂

          A lot of 40s tonight, and even tho it’s not on my temp range, a couple of upper 30s in the coldest hollows would not surprise me.

          1. I guess sneaky was a poor choice of word on my part.

            What I meant was, as we got closer to today, tonight and tomorrow, this airmass has trended cooler as we got closer on the models.

            Yes, not sneaky because the models have been onto it the last 24, maybe 36 hrs.

            But if we go back to say even last Friday, the outlook for today and Tuesday at that time was somewhat warmer. The temps have had to be adjusted lower as today and tomorrow got closer.

  25. Dr. Cohen has dropped his first hint about winter, and the early word coming from his mind is that there is not much to be excited about if you’re a snow lover around here.

    Again that’s him talking, not me. 🙂

    1. Been hearing the same of a warm & wet winter / mixed events around these parts ( no reliable source as I want to say that ) I would not mind a warm winter with the cost of oil . I just had 100 gallons delivers today for $600 and that won’t even fill it. I do well but I can’t afford that this winter . Thank you know who !

      1. As far as the types of events, way too early for that.

        It could end up disappointing (for the snow person) because it’s just extremely dry. That’s on the table.

  28. Down to 49F here in Coventry just before midnight.

    Frost advisories up for portions of the Adirondacks, northern NH and ME.

  29. 40 Norwood to 60 Chatham at sunrise. That’s your range at sunrise, and also very typical for an end-of-summer or early autumn morning with clear sky and generally light wind.

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