Monday September 14 2026 Forecast (7:18AM)

34 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

A cold front moves offshore early this morning taking any showers with it. This will be followed by a breezy, drier day with sunshine returning, though passing fair weather clouds will dot the sky as well. High pressure builds over the region tonight and Tuesday with fair weather and lighter wind. This promotes a cool night tonight, and a nice rebound to milder air Tuesday afternoon. The high moves offshore, bringing in warmer late summer air for midweek – Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front approaches later Thursday, especially evening and nighttime with lots of clouds and the potential for showers, which will then depart on Friday as another area of high pressure moves in behind the front with a return to fair weather.

TODAY: Early clouds with scattered showers mainly I-95 belt eastward, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches late night. Lows 45-52, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban centers and coast. Wind N dropping to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Abundant sunshine. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant until mid afternoon then more clouds late. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with potential showers early, then clearing. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Guidance is not consistent in the medium range so it doesn’t aid much in forecast confidence, but current expectations are for weather to start and finish the September 19-20 weekend with an interruption from a passing disturbance somewhere between there, bringing a shower chance. There are a few indications of a more significant trough pushing another shower threat into the region early next week – but uncertain. The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 8:05 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Trend is for only a brief shower threat somewhere early or mid period with otherwise mostly fair weather and slight cooling trend in the early days of autumn.

34 thoughts on “Monday September 14 2026 Forecast (7:18AM)”

    1. Glad you got it.

      It’s so much about luck. Yesterday’s word finder gave me zilch for first guess. Today, it Gave me three letters (out of order) for my first guess. It adds a layer of fun even if it doesn’t always help

      Wordle 3.

      Reply

  7. I feel better after reading TK’s first sentence in his day 6-10 outlook.

    “Guidance is not consistent in the medium range so it doesn’t aid much in forecast confidence”

    I understand its not going to be as consistent compared to hrs 0 – 120, but one might expect some bigger picture consistency, ie general placement of bigger features) but even the bigger picture items, some of them, are not consistent.

    Reply

  8. Although Autumn weather can be absolutely beautiful, there isn’t always a lot of action. We are kind of stuck in between severe weather Season and full-on Winter. And with El Nino, not sure what we will get in the way of Winter. I guess I am relegated to trying to enjoy the beautiful Autumn weather we get around here, even if it can be a bit boring.

    Reply

  11. im not liking the El-Nino and +Indian dipole look for Australia im worried with all this heavy green vegetation drying out and becoming fuel later this year.

    Reply

    1. Does Australia have a fire season like US West? Exacerbated by an El Nino season?

      How are you enjoying things down under?

      Did you ever meet up with or text with my Niece Who lives in
      Beaumaris, across the bay from where you are. 🙂

      Reply

  13. Today, earth is 1 million miles closer to the sun than it was on July 6th, at aphelion.

    On July 6th, earth was 94.503 million miles away.

    Today, it’s 93.503 million miles away.

    Sounds like a lot by the number, but ….. 1 million miles is about the earth-moon distance 4 times. And we are around 4,000 of those from the sun, so 4/4,000 =0.001 so, in the scheme of things, it’s not as much as it seems. And, we’ve lost 20 degrees of sun angle, so even though the sun hitting the top of the atmosphere is 2% stronger than in July, what’s getting through the atmosphere is obviously weaker than July since it has to go through so much more atmosphere at a lower angle.

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  14. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2026091412&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2026091412&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2026091412&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Thursday/Thursday evening into Friday showing next potential for 60s dew points. RRFS A only out to Thursday morning, as I post this.

    There is a boundary projected to be to our north, if that has a stronger high than currently simulated, it could end further south of us more quickly and our dps in the 60s would last less.

    Reply

  15. 70/58

    Our lawn guy is coming tomorrow to put in a new lawn. We’ve had grubs and drought throughout the past years, so it’s time for some new grass. So, looking to the forecast for some nice showers for the new lawn. Thank goodness it wasn’t put in on Friday as the grass seed would be down the drain after yesterday’s soaker!

    Reply

  18. At least on pivotal weather, the 12z GFS op run is stuck at hr 111.

    This is a pleasant surprise and probably how far out that model should run all the time.

    Reply

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