7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 16-20)

High pressure provides us with the “pick of the week” weather for today – plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and comfortably “mild” July air. A warm front crosses there region Friday with clouds, a shower threat, and increasing humidity, and then the door is open to summer heat and humidity over the weekend and Monday, although we’ll be free of any shower and thunderstorm threat for the weekend, but not so on Monday as a cold front approaches the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-67. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

Daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, but rain-free much of the time July 21-23, along with fairly high humidity but a little less heat in response to a couple of fronts between Atlantic and Canadian high pressure. Drier air will likely win out and push in from the Canadian high late next week with a push from a little stronger west northwest upper air flow.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

West to northwest flow aloft, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but drier than average overall for most of the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 16 2020

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 15-19)

High pressure centered over eastern Canada will drift slowly southward bringing drier air in for today (which starts on the cloudy and still somewhat humid side) and Thursday. A warm front approaching and moving through the region Friday brings cloudiness, higher humidity, and a risk of showers, then opens the door to some summer heat for the weekend.

TODAY: Clouds break for sun. Drying out. Highs 69-74 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog lower elevations overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers possible overnight. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers possible. Slight risk of a thunderstorm. More humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

Very warm to hot, humid, and add in the risk of showers and thunderstorms as a front moves into the area and weakens early next week (July 20-21). Another front pushes in and repeats the process midweek (July 22-23) before drier air arrives late week (July 24) based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

West to northwest flow aloft, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but drier than average overall for most of the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 15 2020

7:54AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 14-18)

An upper level low pressure area and pool of very cold air aloft will make the atmosphere unstable today with showers and thunderstorms. Initially these storms are limited to parts of southern NH but will develop elsewhere due to the sun’s heating. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds and hail. Activity settles down and departs later tonight, and high pressure centered over eastern Canada, sinking slowly southward, provides fair and comfortable mid July weather Wednesday and Thursday. A warm front approaching and moving through the region Friday brings cloudiness, higher humidity, and a risk of showers, then opens the door to some summer heat by Saturday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms in southern NH early to mid morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms anywhere midday on. Thunderstorms may produce hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Highs 76-83. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms diminishing. Patchy fog forming. Lows 56-63 Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog lower elevations overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers possible overnight. More humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers possible. Slight risk of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

Very warm to hot, humid, but rain-free weather for July 19. Early next week July 20-21 humidity stays high in a southwesterly flow but approaching and passing cold front brings the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Middle of next week July 22-23 brings fair and somewhat drier weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

West to northwest flow aloft heading into late July, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but not a wet pattern overall.

C-19 Chat Post – July 14 2020

7:47AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 13-17)

Active weather early this week. If you look at a general weather map you can say “an area of low pressure” or “a trough” is moving across the region, but putting a little microscope on it, we have a mid to high level disturbance coming through this morning (which triggers a few showers in the area), a slow-moving trough / cold front moving into the area this afternoon which triggers clusters of showers and thunderstorms that may linger over certain areas, resulting in flash flooding, and we have an upper level low pressure trailing all this interacting with a newly formed although weak surface low pressure area to produce another round of showers and storms on Tuesday. So much in 2 days during one of the quieter seasons of the year? It happens. But if you want a quiet day, it’s coming – Wednesday – as high pressure settles in, and like many before it, centered to the north so that the air flow is northerly to easterly, but that will bring comfortable air in, and tranquil weather, which will last through Thursday as the high shifts overhead then off to the southeast. By Friday, a warm front will be passing through with cloudiness and a shower threat, opening the door to more humidity again.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with possible passing showers during the morning. Partly sunny midday and afternoon leading to scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms mid through late afternoon, some of which may result in flash flooding and gusty, locally damaging, winds. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but strong and gusty near some storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a diminishing risk of showers and thunderstorms evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm mainly during the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog lower elevations overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers possible overnight. More humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers possible. Risk of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

Typical summery weather for July 18-19 weekend, very warm to hot, no extreme heat, and a daily risk of a shower or thunderstorm in a few areas. Overall pattern is weak systems and weak to moderate westerly flow aloft so similar weather into next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

West to northwest flow aloft heading into late July, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but not a wet pattern overall.

C-19 Chat Post – July 13 2020

8:30AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 12-16)

Today will be a breezy and warm summer day, a little less humid than yesterday, dew point coming down from over 70 to the lower 60s, but very warm to hot with some areas reaching or just exceeding 90 for high temps. Expecting sun eventually mixed with some clouds but today I’m going to remove any risk of pop up showers and storms from the forecast. We do have more “weather” on the way though, and a low pressure trough crossing the region Monday will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially to areas away from the South Coast and especially during the afternoon hours. The trough responsible for this will develop a low pressure area offshore Tuesday and some cold air aloft will linger, and this combination will set off a few more showers and possible thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. High pressure, centered to the north of the region, will bring fair and cooler weather for Wednesday before it shifts offshore and a warm-up begins Thursday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Less humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Moderately humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely, especially away from the South Coast. More humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Slightly less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm mainly during the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog lower elevations overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 79-86, coolest coast. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak to moderate westerly flow aloft and weak weather systems at the surface. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances.

C-19 Chat Post – July 12 2020

10:27AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 11-15)

As expected, the “outer bands”, really lobes of tropical moisture leftover from a weakening low which was once called Tropical Storm Fay, delivered a few episodes of showers and scattered downpours during Friday night. Generally under 1/2 inch of rain fell in most locations, with isolated heavier. Thankfully, no instances of damaging wind transpired, so “Fay” was pretty much the non-event it was expected to be here across the WHW forecast area. But we are not completely free of its influence yet, as it is in the process of merging with low pressure coming out of the Great Lakes, and a fresh southerly wind is blowing across the region this morning. The last of the showers exited via north central MA and southwestern NH early this morning, and other than a remote risk of an isolated brief passing shower in the moist air mass, it’s just going to be a breezy, muggy day with a sun & cloud mix. Later in the day you may notice a deck of higher clouds moving in from the west, which will be blow-off from showers and storms that form well to the west during the afternoon along a trough that trails from the newly-merged lows as they move away into eastern Canada. However, these storms will weaken and fade to just a few lingering showers as they cross the region tonight, so there will be no significant impact from them. Sunday, a westerly air flow behind this trough will knock the dew point down several notches, and while it’s still technically going to be a humid day, you will notice it being less humid than today. I’m leaving a remote risk of a pop up shower or thunderstorm in the forecast, but I really doubt much of anything will take place with Sunday just being a nice summer day. However, Monday is when things get interesting again around here. Don’t mistake that as a call for severe weather in any form of outbreak, but the atmosphere is going to support some shower and thunderstorm activity, so there may be quite a bit of activity to track as a couple of low pressure troughs move through the region. Behind this comes a push of drier air for Tuesday and Wednesday, but these will have their own weather associated with them, Tuesday being the risk of a pop up shower with some lingering cold air aloft, and Wednesday being the advance of some cloudiness ahead of a warm front.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated brief shower possible. Humid. Highs 80-85 South Coast, 85-90 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 mph, higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a passing shower late evening. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mid afternoon to early evening. Slightly less humid. Highs 82-87 South Coast, 87-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Slightly less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm mainly eastern areas during the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak to moderate westerly flow aloft and weak weather systems at the surface. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.

C-19 Chat Post – July 11 2020

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 10-14)

Tropical Storm Fay formed just off the East Coast of the US yesterday and will make a rapid run up the coast, center making landfall over the northern Mid Atlantic tonight then racing northward up the Hudson Valley region early Saturday morning. This is going to be a very quick “event” for us here in the form of a gusty breeze, a couple waves of showers / downpours and potential thunder (which carry a slight potential of a few damaging wind gusts), and tropical humidity, and then it’s gone, just like that, leaving us with a sun/cloud mix Saturday but still quite humid. Also a lingering trough behind Fay may help ignite some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday, but right now the greatest chance for this to happen is just west of the WHW forecast area, some making their way in weakening or scattered form into the region during the evening or night. Humidity comes down a notch Sunday but another weak trough swinging through may still help fire off a shower or thunderstorm in a few places during the afternoon / early evening so can’t forecast totally dry. If there is one “significant” change to this outlook it is that a slightly stronger disturbance seems slated to want to make a passing visit on Monday, and that will again increase the risk of showers and thunderstorms before drier air finally arrives for Tuesday.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers and possible thunderstorms any time this afternoon, but greatest risk mid to late afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Very humid. Lows 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. Slightly less humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Slightly less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-87. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak to moderate westerly air flow much of the time. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.

C-19 Chat Post – July 10 2020

7:49AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 9-13)

Today we find ourselves deeper in the feel of the summer season we’re in – a little more heat than yesterday (though not excessively hot), and humidity on the high side. We don’t have a trough to kick off a batch of storms similar to what happened yesterday to the north – although those storms did not really make it down into Massachusetts from VT & NH as there was more stable air in place there. Today, we may see isolated pop-up air mass showers and thunderstorms, simply due to daytime heating, so be aware of that possibility. Any of these will fade as the sun sets, and tonight will be simply warm and muggy – a classic summer night. Next we turn our attention to a system that has been talked about as the bringing of a Saturday wash-out, or even by some, a weekend wash-out. You may have been lead to believe this by a verbatim interpretation of computer model forecasts, especially the currently very poorly-performing ECMWF model. Once again, this is where using the science of meteorology comes into play. This system, whether the NHC classifies it as something or not, will indeed be coming northward up the East Coast, but it’s going to be a relatively small low pressure area and take an “inside runner” track, over the Delmarva region and probably up through the Hudson Valley Friday night and early Saturday. And while that does mean we can get some heavy tropical rainfall, it’s likely come in the form of 2 or 3 lobes of showers and thunderstorms, moving rapidly south to north across the region, during the window of late Friday afternoon to very early Saturday morning. Once that low is beyond our latitude, we’ll be left in a south to southwesterly air flow of very humid air for Saturday, which for the most part is likely to be rain-free, as is Sunday. We’ll have to watch, however, for the development of afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms especially near a weak lingering trough line behind the low Saturday as it drifts to the east, and another trough approaching from the west again by later on Sunday. While we remain in a warm and somewhat humid air mass for Monday, there will be less of a risk of any showers/storms forming due to more stable air which will have arrived at that time.

TODAY: Areas of fog & low clouds into mid morning, otherwise partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, but a few higher gusts possible near any storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly mid to late afternoon, favoring areas south of I-90. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak southwesterly to westerly flow overall. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.