Thursday July 16 2020 Forecast

87 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 16-20)

High pressure provides us with the “pick of the week” weather for today – plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and comfortably “mild” July air. A warm front crosses there region Friday with clouds, a shower threat, and increasing humidity, and then the door is open to summer heat and humidity over the weekend and Monday, although we’ll be free of any shower and thunderstorm threat for the weekend, but not so on Monday as a cold front approaches the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-67. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

Daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, but rain-free much of the time July 21-23, along with fairly high humidity but a little less heat in response to a couple of fronts between Atlantic and Canadian high pressure. Drier air will likely win out and push in from the Canadian high late next week with a push from a little stronger west northwest upper air flow.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

West to northwest flow aloft, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but drier than average overall for most of the region.

87 thoughts on “Thursday July 16 2020 Forecast”

  1. I was not in a good spot to see Neowise last night, but there will be many opportunities upcoming during the next 10 days (weather-permitting).

    What I did get to see last night were 2 passes of the International Space Station.

    This photo is from pass #1 at 9:15PM in the Concord MA area, and as a bonus, a satellite happened to come into view just ahead of the ISS in the sky (in a lower orbit). If you zoom the photo a bit, you can pick out a little hint of direction of travel of the satellite on the left and the ISS on the right, both moving generally from right to left (but not on the exact same path).

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/p960x960/108595603_10158625095577265_3208747154749942533_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=m_AVDGdT9UsAX-Yelag&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&_nc_tp=6&oh=74705edf08677a5df40c95ffe01d34bf&oe=5F33DD7A

    Here is a photo from the second pass of the ISS at 10:55PM taken from Woburn High School, with the ISS just “under” the Big Dipper’s pot in the sky.

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/p960x960/108191784_10158625109197265_4706832139823880580_o.jpg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=3MuNon5DPisAX91E76x&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&_nc_tp=6&oh=04036af1947c9c6be6e0df183eb47434&oe=5F35789D

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Nice shots above. thanks

    Oh, and what happened to the MCS discussion? You did say “almost”. Did you mean almost one for tomorrow, but more
    that a pattern might be developing that would favor these
    kind of systems for the future?

    If you have time, could you possibly elaborate? Manythanks

  5. Thank you, TK….for forecast and photos. It is always a thrill to see the space station fly overhead.

  8. I see TK alludes to it in his forecast and the models are advertising it too …

    Overnight Sunday night has the look of a very, very warm, sultry overnight.

    For many days starting Saturday, we´ll have a warm air-mass over New England with high 850 mb temps.

    However, the core of the warmest temps in this upcoming warm stretch appear to go overhead Sunday night through early Monday.

    Once it gets to or over 90F Sunday, its really going to have a struggle to cool off markedly Sunday night.

    Urban areas may well struggle to get below 80F and the normally cooler areas to the low – mid 70s.

    That should set us up to have a rather high launch-pad Monday, though a better shot at clouds and thunderstorms may save us from even hotter temps Monday afternoon.

    1. YUCK!!!!

      I have convinced my wife to let me install AC #2.
      (I tweaked my back installing #1. These things are so damn heavy although I am as strong as an ox, that strength is waning rapidly with age)
      We have been only using one to provided us with a refuge.

      With this heat, we will need at least one more so she
      can sit at her computer in comfort seeing is that is one of few means of staying connected with the outside world (the other 2 being Phone and TV).

      1. I´m glad she is comfortable with a second A/C.

        Wow, I don´t think I could lift an A/C unit, on my own, long enough, to properly fit it into the window.

  9. Well, the 12z GFS, I think, offers something that looks slightly different in the day 5 to 6 period (120 to 132 hrs).

    Its fealt like the consistent outlook from the GFS and EURO in the mid range is for southern US high pressure, with a mostly zonal jet stream across the far northern tier, with occasional disturbances riding in that flow. If anything in the mid range, the southern US high pressure would build west a bit and our 500 mb flow would go from W to WNW or even NW.

    But the current GFS op run goes from that zonal flow through day 4 to something slightly new. It seems to keep the mid atlantic part of the ridge intact and allows somewhat of a dip in the central Plains. So the high 500 mb heights stay put in New England along with very warm (18c) 850 mb temps. This scenario though, might really offer better rain chances to southern New England and/or the mid Atlantic, due to a humidity boundary being around.

    Interested to see if the 12z EURO makes a similar, small change like this.

      1. Thankfully, we’ll be cooler than Logan here, but in that air mass, probably not by a whole lot. If Logan is 80, we’ll be 76 or 77. Not much difference. 🙂

    3. So nice having you your daily input here I’m looking forward too it this winter . Thank you SAK

  11. I think the 12z EURO looks similar to the 12z GFS days 5 and 6 today.

    Perhaps a real chance of showers/storms somewhere in the later Monday thru Wednesday time-frame, with a dip in the jet to our west sending a slow moving cold front into warm, but extremely humid air that could support a good area coverage of convection and/or rain. Here´s hoping.

  12. Currently ONLY 68 at the airport. Wow! One extreme to the other. I actually feel cold in the house today. Will try to store
    that cold for as long as possible. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    yeah, I know, it won’t last long. Should get us through tomorrow
    aok, but after that. NOPE!

  13. So far this Summer has had a good mix of hot summer days and nice breaks. This summer so far has been very nice. I been teaching myself more and more about the tropical weather as I have now an invested interest. Just climatology and current atmospheric conditions I wouldn’t be surprised if we start seeing the MDR getting started soon unfortunately. Also thanks again TK for clearing things up for me yesterday some of the papers that I was reading confused me and you made it make sense 🙂

  15. When the heat core times out for an overnight, that’s a recipe for a “hot” night, and I think Sunday will be a rare night in which Boston may struggle to fall below 80.

  16. JPD. My 11 year old grand has read all 25 Heartland books since April/May. They were in English. There are more in French since it is filmed in Canada.

    She now wants to learn French so she can read those

    So do you or anyone know of a program for her age to learn French?

    I’m asking on FB also.

    1. Sorry,
      I have nothing to recommend. I did have 4 years of French, 3 in high school and 1 in college, BUT I have retained practically
      none of it. 🙂
      What about one of those Language courses like:
      https://www.berlitz.com/languages/french

      it came to mind and only a thought as I have no clue
      how good they are???

      Good luck.

  17. For you Jeopardy fans starting Monday a Jeopardy episode from each of the first ten seasons and I believe the very first Jeopardy hosted by Alex Trebek.

  20. What a beautiful day today was. I would say 9.5 out of 10. I took my two boys 9 and 14 to the golf course for the first time. Couldn’t have asked for a nicer day weather wise. Great experience all around!

  23. Today’s update is going to be a few hours later than usual as well as done via mobile so just work off of this one for now, with no major changes. The AM showers are a little on the potent side but they should be moving out by mid morning – rest of the forecast is unchanged by now, but will do the official update as soon as I can (both the C-19 & weather forecast posts).

    Carry on for now!

    1. I think that might be a wrap for the city with the rain as it’s starting to clear up . It’s going to be a very hot stretch coming up starting soon I’m just hoping that extends itself up North the last week of July

      1. Not looking forward to that.

        Am installing an additional Window AC today in preparation
        for the heat. We’ll see how that goes. Perhaps I’ll install
        one more as well.

        Speaking of Cooling….

        Anyone have thoughts on the following:

        https://www.easycoolbreeze.com/int/?affId=85A2AB73&trvid=10126&c1&c2&c3&fbid=577036306336542&fbclid=IwAR0I2vCUMNdZunmeXYYB0EktKXhuiZ4K67VWaruZ3krzkx65bn-Y5UE06b4

        Since I am an old jaded SOB, this sound too good to be true. Stick some water in a resevoir and blow some air over it
        and it’s going to cool a whole room? huh? What??

        I think that company is banking on a bunch of suckers
        buying the product and being too ashamed to ask
        for their money back.

        If someone can tell me these units are legit, then I “might”
        be tempted to purchase one. BUT I seriously doubt
        that they are legit.

        In any case, I hope you get a chuckle out it.

        My daughter was going to send us 4 of them and I told
        her thanks for the kind thought, but no thanks.

      1. I know I thought so too. I did a double take to make sure my eyes weren’t deceiving me. 🙂

          1. I was thinking three same. Mine says 0.20 but I’ve been thinking for a bit that it is reading low and my extra one broke. I need to get a simple gauge to check my AccuRite

    1. More

      https://www.topdust.com/can-you-really-learn-a-language-with-an-app-heres-what-i-found-2637613217.html?&utm_content=5e664c7b132c596ad09283c0_5e4c4d453e36820722b56feb&bcid=5e4c4d453e36820722b56feb&bhid=5e664c7b132c596ad09283c0&utm_campaign=Geist_Article_Purchase_OB_D_Skeptics_Topdust_RT_3&utm_source=GeistM&campaignid=5e4c4b813e36820722b56fdf&BT=DB&dicbo=v1-a2509d89f03de212229402c99d061a8f-005dd188a4af306e36eddbace8d49ecd73-gnqwkzbsgqytgljqgbrgeljumftgkljzmq4dsljqmq3wkyzwge2deytegi

    2. I didn’t see it and thank you. One of her teachers has suggested a program so will wait to see how that works. I appreciate your help and have made a list.

  29. Current temperatures and dew points are holding their own well.
    Nearly 11AM and still ONLY 63 at the airport with dp 57.
    Perhaps the warmth will struggle to get in here and we’ll salvage
    another comfortable day before the incinerator arrives.

  30. It is looking like Sunday and Monday will be the worst of the heat we have seen so far this summer.
    Yesterday in my opinion the best day of the summer so far

  31. Thanks, TK, and thanks in advance for today’s update!!! 🙂

    Not sure how much we got in showers this morning. I am too lazy right now to check the gauge.

    Vicki, I have a text into our French teacher about a language program. I will let you know what she says.

    2. Beautiful humming birds. Our nephew has a bunch of those
      at his summer place in Lakeville.

      We used to have some as a kid growing up in Millis.

      Love them!

      1. I have NEVER seen one in the city. Not saying there aren’t any, just that I have never seen one.

  34. Vicki…my friend says that Duolingo is the best for young learners and second language acquisition. Also, Babble.

    I will be looking into Duolingo soon to supplement my teaching this fall in case we’re Remote Learning and/or hybrid.

  35. As we all know, the long range of all the weather models, even the medium range, has been struggling mightily.

    Today´s 12z GFS, in the long range, is one of the coolest, with associated trofiness, model runs I have seen in 4 or so weeks. Particularly for the northeastern part of the US

    We´ll have to see in the coming days if this has any consistency or was just a poor run.

  36. Thanks TK!
    Could only muster .05 in the rain bucket this morning. I guess it’s better than nothing.
    Nice photos Captain!

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