DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)
What once looked like a 3-day wet weather event according to the models is just down to a minimal 1-day thing, with very limited help for our drought. First, today, one of the days that originally looked cloudier and wetter, starts out quite nice as a weak area of high pressure holds on for a few more hours. Low pressure developing to our south will send its cloud shield northward into the region as the day goes on, thickening up more quickly over Cape Cod then into the rest of southeastern MA and RI, and these areas may see some rain drops before the end of the afternoon and more certainly this evening. That low will move northeast, then north, then hook back to the northwest as it passes to our east, but close enough to bring some rainfall to much of the WHW forecast area from late tonight into much of Wednesday, although areas to the southwest and west will have the lightest and most spotty rain while areas to the east see a steadier area. And it is these areas to the east which have the potential for 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain. Even this close to the event, there are still some significant enough model differences to try to confuse the forecaster, but this seems to be the best-bet scenario. Whatever wet weather we get tapers off Wednesday night, but as the low starts to pull away early Thursday, there may be one wrap-around shower area that gets southern NH and/or northern MA with a brief bout of rainfall to start the day, otherwise looks for a sun/cloud mix, dry air, but warmer with a land breeze behind the departing low Thursday. High pressure builds in with great summer weather late in the week, but you will notice an increase in humidity as we move through Friday and Saturday.
TODAY: Sun to start, then increasing clouds from south to north. Rain develops later in the day South Coast especially southern RI to Cape Cod. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to middle 60s, highest South Coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely RI, eastern MA, and moving into southeastern NH, with periods of rain to the west. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts in eastern coastal locations.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain and drizzle, steadiest in eastern MA and southeastern NH. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH especially eastern coastal locations.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly evening. Areas of fog early. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling into and eventually through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief passing shower possible southern NH and northern MA early. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)
Looks like the rest of the weekend finishes up rain-free and warm August 21. Humidity stays high and shower chances go up mid period then drier air arrives late in the period.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)
Still looking for a southwesterly to westerly air flow in general with limited rain opportunities and near to above normal temperatures late August.