Tuesday August 9 2022 Forecast (7:39AM)

164 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)

A back-door cold front made it down through the NH Seacoast region to about eastern and northern reaches of Cape Ann MA during last night. Today, it pushes back the other way keeping all of us in the heat and humidity combo for one more day before a cold front moves across the region this evening. Ahead of this front there is a very good chance of thunderstorms, but the coverage may not be widespread, but rather scattered to numerous, and the leaning is toward the southern half of MA southward for the heaviest cells this afternoon into this evening, some of which can be severe. Areas to the north should pay attention too during this afternoon as a few stronger storms are still possible there as well. Once the front moves by, the heat is pushed out, but as is typical for August, there’s not a strong push of drier air right behind this boundary, so while Wednesday is to be a considerably cooler day, the humidity will still be elevated and we’ll see lots of clouds with a general northeasterly air flow. Sadly, what I had hoped would be a beneficial rainfall event from a wave of low pressure doesn’t seem like it is in the cards now, but we’ll watch for a surprise. That wave looks weaker and fairly quick moving, timed for Wednesday night and early Thursday, favoring RI and southeastern MA where a few hours of rainfall may take place before the region ends up with a fairly nice day Thursday – sun/cloud mix, still a bit humid, but not hot. Another frontal boundary pushes through Thursday night into Friday, and this may kick off a few more showers during about a 12 hour period of time as we transition to much lower humidity and a cooler ending to the work week. High pressure builds in with great weather to start next weekend.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which may be strong to locally severe. Highs 90-97 except 83-90 South Coast. Dew point around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH except variable under 10 MPH early NH Seacoast and northeastern MA.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly this evening and especially south of I-90. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely overnight mainly eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy start with showers likely southeastern MA/RI. Otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming N.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers during the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)

Fair weather should last through the end of the weekend on August 14. After that a slow increase in humidity and eventually a shower chance by the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)

Weak zonal flow pattern. Some alternating between summer warmth and humidity and a little drier/cooler air from Canada possible, but rainfall is expected to average below normal.

164 thoughts on “Tuesday August 9 2022 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  2. Thanks TK. Very much looking forward to end of hot spell. Driving to Boston from Cape later. When do you think storms most likely in this area?

  3. Good morning and thank you Tk.

    Overnight low of 80 here in JP.
    Not sure I have ever seen that before . I know it has happened at Logan a few times, but it has been in the mid to upper 70s here when that did happen.

    Btw, considerable mid level cloud deck above us at the moment. With more sun, we could be looking at the century mark today. This is a hot air mass.

    1. looking at latest satellite imagery, it looks as though that mid layer cloud deck will be moving off soon.

    2. Insane overnight temps, aren’t they ……

      I think for the 4 major reporting sites, its been 75F, 78F, 79F and 81F for lows since midnight.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Former WBZ-TV news anchor/reporter Uma Pemmaraju has died at age 64.

    So sorry for bad news to begin a morning.

  6. JPD I have recorded a few lows of 80 to 82 over the years, most of them having come in the 1980s. Last night / this morning it was a combination of the heat island effect followed by cloud cover.

    We would never make 100 today. Wrong wind direction. The max potential temperature is about 95 with full sun which we won’t have anyway.

      1. No.
        Something like Boston’s stretch of days with 80+ is a big stretch given the normal high temp, and that doesn’t constitute a hot spell. Boston broke or tied 3 daily records. Most other records were unchallenged. Nothing about this hot spell was unprecedented except Boston’s average over the last 3 weeks. That term is so overused by media these days that it is nearly meaningless now. That is their own fault.

  10. Eric F’s first tweet this morning has to do with hottest 30 day periods and we’re in 1st place battling 1980, 1955 and 1983.

    Well, 1980. 1955 and 1983 went on to have December’s that were 7.1, 9.0F and 3.6F degrees BELOW average.

    2. Off the top of my head, I believe those were fairly lean snow amounts for the following winter as well.

      For example, 1983-84 = 43.0”

  13. Philip, you are correct. It is unprecedented in several respects. I posted a bunch of records or record ties yesterday. Dave E tweeted this last night…or yesterday…the date on the chart is 8/7/22

    “In the record-keeping age, going back to 1872, there’s never been a three-week period where the average high in Boston was over 90F, until the past three weeks. Today’s high moves the average up a bit further. “

    https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/1556760200031490050?s=21&t=qhz7QeJOkX8tUesucEttzw

      1. Sure is. I remember commenting here how impressed with the Mets in the PNW were just over a year ago with their unusual heat wave. It is when I started using twitter just so I could follow them

        Our guys…and gals….have been just as impressive with this heat in their comments

      2. It is indeed the sustained nature of the heat that has impressed me the most. My cat is impressed by it, too … not.

  15. More record tweets

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1556686375327612932?s=21&t=le0v1pdOpuXs1c6_LB-tNQ
    8/8 Another record high in Boston…97F so far

    https://twitter.com/sarahwroblewski/status/1556703929718738948?s=21&t=vBTlU-_2aRuzaMxcAqVqGA
    8/8 same except she adds At 97 degrees so far, #Boston broke another record high today. (Previous record was 96 degrees set back in 1983.)
    This is the 4th record high temp tied or broken in 5 days!

    https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/1556715861494431748?s=21&t=vBTlU-_2aRuzaMxcAqVqGA
    8/8 The past 99 days have been the driest on record and one of the warmest. Although drought frequency is actually not increasing in New England, the impact of our semi-regular droughts can become bigger as it continues to become warmer. 1965 was also very dry, but not as warm

  16. Nowcasting Jp Dave’s satellite loop, perhaps in 20-30 minutes, Boston will have full sun. Guessing full sun may last 1-2 hrs ?????

  23. The only places with “full sun” late this morning are Plymouth and Bristol Counties and parts of RI.

  24. While I’m convinced we will not see rain any time soon due to our super stealth powers, That begs the question…

    how full does sun have to be to trigger storms. 100,75,50,25%.

    1. It depends on the rest of the set up.

      You can have 100% sunshine and hot weather with high humidity and get no storms if the atmosphere doesn’t support them.

      1. Red Sox should totally give up on him. AFAIC he barely helped us beat the Dodgers in the 2018 WS if my memory is correct.

    1. We’ve seen that before. Time will tell,
      with anything so far.
      I fear we’ll get skunked yet again, Still plenty of time for things to get going.
      Let’s hope we at least get some rain out of this. I suspect not, but we shall see.

    1. Sure does. Eric…maybe….said when we finally get seasonal temps, it will feel like October to us

      1. Tomorrow the temperature will be below normal so it will probably feel like November. 😉

    2. I was just about to say the same thing !!!

      Its absolutely awful out ! The sun hurts and the air is out of hairdryer, except thick.

  30. 92 in JP

    95 at the airport. Cooking pretty good right now.
    Will that translate into convection? The million dollar question,

      1. Of course not. I predict total rainfall for JP today: 0.00 inches. You can take it to the bank!!!

        Channel 5 radar simulation had boston getting croaked, but we all know how accurate that is. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Since we have had zero every darned time, I’m betting on that also. I know we are not alone. North and others can say the same

          Meanwhile, many more clouds moving in.

  31. Well, medium to early long range …….

    Perhaps a western ridge, eastern trof/closed low ???????

    Will be interested to watch the next 5-7 days of projections on how that evolves.

    Don’t want that pattern to retrograde too much in August and have a period of due south to north flow aloft along the East coast.

      1. Nothing right now and there’s nothing out there, so that is excellent !

        Just curious to see how the upper flow evolves and then of course, see if anything would be out there.

        1. Ahh ok. I did know the tropics are quiet but wondered about your last paragraph. Of course my question was about as vague as it could be ;(

  34. Friday and the weekend can’t get here soon enough when the humidity will drop big time. Fingers crossed this will be the last big blast of heat for summer 2022.

      1. One thing about September is once you get past the first week the heat and humidity don’t have the staying power.

  36. Big, black cloud developing just west of overhead here. Wouldn’t be surprised if it turns into a quick, sudden heavy shower.

    Noticed wind at Logan went west, pre-frontal trof and perhaps this is that very very small scale low passing through northern MA.

    If so, as that rain blob continues east, watch the tail from Worcester to Springfield for a possible broken line to develop.

  37. Got to 92F but didn’t go higher. Is my thermometer inaccurate? Logan is rarely warmer than Back Bay.

    1. Well, in summer, I should have added. In winter, Logan is often slightly warmer than Back Bay.

  38. Thanks, TK.

    Dark clouds scattered around Sudbury w/wow! Just a big crash of thunder and flash of lightning. Just starting to rain. Wind is picking up. We’ll see if we get much rain. I have a feeling any rain will be brief.

  39. In Lunenburg, we had a good dousing for about 30 minutes. We got about 1.25″ of rain and the temperature temporarily dropped to 74. Now the sun is out and things are steaming.

  40. getting ominous looking here. Lots of convection to the NW. Right now looks to miss, but new cells are popping, so we shall see.

  41. lightning near Marshfield.
    Nearest lightning to me is Stoneham.
    Storms north of me and south of me.
    split goal post????

  43. Sun is out now, for the time being w/a heavy downpour. Rainshine! Couldn’t resist putting that in. ):

  46. Just got a Florida special here in Sharon. Huge tropical downpour and wind with a big of thunder. Lasted 5 mins now the sun is out again. Everything is steaming. Yuck!

  47. About 5 mins ago, Gloucester had an ENE wind, Boston Harbor buoy had a SE wind and Logan had a NW wind. I think the small small low is in Massachusetts Bay and it’s now sending showers and storms right towards marshfield. Lots of thunder and lightning here.

          1. It is pitch black and there are low scud coming with an outflow boundary.

            It looks like the wizard of Oz

            2. Ok so that would make even me nervous. Be safe. And remember to dust under the bed….just a suggestion !!!

  48. Sun is out. We managed perhaps 0.01 or 0.02 inch of rain.
    Big woof. Oh and 1 rumble of thunder. That was it.

    Looks like that’s it for the day as well!!!

  50. I absolutely loved the 2 thunderstorms I experienced. The first was in Reading, kind of a classic, CG cores first to the S then to the N, a couple good rumbles, nothing super close. A lull followed then the second one came in from the west just as I got to my car. This one lacked CGs but had some in-cloud rumbles and lots of rain, which the sun came out near the end of.

    I remember so many instances like this as a kid it was very nostalgic. 🙂

    Heat is in the process of breaking now.

    New pattern begins the next few hours…

  52. My SIL has been waiting for a ton of HVAC stuff that has been stuck in the harbor or china or wherever it gets stuck nowadays. It arrived this morning. He is on a job. One huge box can’t get wet

    Wanna bet we now get rain

    1. “Or wherever it gets stuck nowadays…” I don’t mean to laugh at that but I laughed because it’s very fitting to the times. 😉

      I hope it stays dry for that reason!

    1. Yup. I wanted to win that mega bucks lottery a couple weeks ago, not the thunderstorm lottery today.

      Tons of lightning/immediate thunder couplets and we have to be pushing 1 inch of rain.

      It was so hot and humid prior to this 10 mins ago.

    2. Happy to get some rain. 🙂 I thought it was going to miss north. Lately everything has either missed north or south or split my area.

  57. I’ve been hearing rumblings of thunder to the north of here (mid-Cape) for at least half an hour, and they seem to be getting a bit closer. I’m resolutely in the shade, because the sun came out and it’s seriously hot.

  59. Logan had dropped to 79F, but now its 88F with a dp of 75F. HEat indice: 98F.

    Most recent report from Marshfield airport is 0.57 inches of rain.

    2. That one made its presence felt in Foxboro as I was picking up my son from camp. Huge lightning strike in the woods behind the pick up location sent the kids screaming. There’s so much instability out there these cells are popping up out of nowhere

  62. It went back up to 89F here and got incredibly soupy outside. I went to do some errands after the very brief rain shower, and boy did it warm up fast. Dewpoint must be very high. If I had to hazard a guess I’d say 76.

    2. Portsmouth NH just went from 89 to 75 with a wind shift to NE.

      Unlike last night, that’s coming through 🙂

      Maybe an hour or 2.

      Everyone will know it. The cooling will be immediately noticeable even if the dps remain in the 60s.

  64. Hampton NH down 13F in the last 30 mins and Isles of Shoals has a gusty NE wind.

    Very soon to come ashore in Cape Ann and then down thru the Boston area and onto the South Shore.

  67. Thanks, TK.

    (I tried to send this immediately after my earlier post, but I have no WiFi at the moment, and suddenly nothing would load or send.)

  70. Logan’s temp dropping suddenly into the low 70s, northeast wind.

    Boston’s hot spell is officially over.

  71. Inland, Concord and Wayland, MA have N or NE winds. I don’t know how far that is from you, Vicki.

  74. No records broken on Tuesday but it was indeed a hot day due to the later timing of the front.

    Heat has broken as we all know now. I’ve heard (or heard of) two complaints already about it being “too cold”. Gee, what a surprise. These are likely people who were wishing for this back in the winter. 😉

    On we go!

    1. Hopefully we won’t get another hot stretch like that again for the rest of this season. Are we past the midway point yet?

      1. Midsummer (half way between solstice and equinox) was August 7.

        We are climatalogically capable of hot stretches right into September, but they become less likely with time now. But instead of worrying about that, let’s look ahead as far as we can on a reasonable level, about 10-15 days. I don’t see any really hot stretches in that time frame. That brings you to about August 25.

        Summer as a whole: This one has so far had 2 distinctive phases: The cooler portion through mid July, then the hot stretches starting on July 19 through August 9. Now we’re just going to hover around normal for a while.

        1988 was hotter, but the heat ended on August 15 and never came back.

        1983 was still an anomaly that stands alone in many aspects.

        Boston’s low temps run warmer now than they used to, but one of the never-mentioned reasons for that is temperature sensor location (that happened after they moved it from its previous location at Logan), so this does skew things slightly.

        If you notice, a lot of the new milestones are being reached at Boston, but not so much at any other Northeast location, in this recent stretch. And breaking or tying 4 records (Boston broke 2 and tied 2) in a 13-day combined stretch of 90+ weather is not all that unusual either. The thing that stands out most to me is the # of days Boston managed to get to 95+. I have a theory as to one of the reasons behind this. Notice it’s less hazy these days? Yes, while that lack of haze is better because it means the atmosphere is less polluted, now we allow a stronger sun to reach the ground. That, combined with sensor location, is in my opinion partly responsible for Boston’s higher temps. Another reason would be a slightly warmer ocean surrounding the airport recently versus 30 years ago.

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