Monday January 31 2022 Forecast (7:54AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

On this final day of January, we’ll enjoy bright sunshine with less wind than yesterday, but with last night’s clear sky and light wind along with fresh snowcover, the temperature dropped efficiently with many locations sitting a handful of degrees either side of zero. Your regional cold spot is Norwood at -13F and your “warm” spot is Provincetown where a combination of some wind and the milder ocean water kept the temperature at about 20F. This is a typical spread for a clear, light wind, snowcovered mid winter morning. Temperatures will become a little more uniform during the day today as we have light winds and abundant sunshine and while most areas fail to reach the freezing point it will be nicer feeling than yesterday’s colder temperatures, especially since we will also enjoy lighter wind. We’ll welcome February on Tuesday with a sun/cloud mix and slightly milder air as the high pressure area that sits over us now will move itself offshore. There will be a low pressure area to the south of New England that will be in the process of unraveling itself, and its leftover moisture may cause some rain shower activity for us on Wednesday as we’ll be immersed in much milder air by then on a southerly air flow with high pressure offshore. For our snowcover, expect a slow melt in sunniest areas today (south sides of buildings, etc.) but watch for a quick re-freeze of any meltwater tonight. This process repeats a little more zealously Tuesday and Tuesday evening. By Wednesday, the melting process will be accelerated but we will avoid flooding issue due to the lower water content snow and the lack of heavy rain. We stay mild into Thursday when we’ll have a cold front approaching. The timing of this boundary will help determine when our next widespread precipitation arrives, which will be in the form of rain. Right now I am leaning toward later in the day. As the front goes by, colder air will waste little time getting in and we may transition to a period of freezing rain and/or sleet, then snow to end as a low pressure wave comes along the front and passes just to our south. The amount of moisture falling with cold enough air will ultimately determine both our ice and snow impact, and it’s still a handful of days away so we’ll have time to fine tune this before its occurrence, but for now just plan on a slightly messy end to the work week.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17 evening, rising overnight. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind S up to 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Temperatures steady 30-37 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Cloudy afternoon with rain arriving late, especially northwest of Boston. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may change to freezing rain and sleet especially north and west of Boston. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with freezing rain and/or sleet mixing with or changing to snow before ending. Temperatures falling to 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Cold/dry February 5-6 weekend. Watch for disturbance to bring snow/mix threat February 7. Cold/dry end to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Milder trend. Unsettled weather most likely mid period.

Sunday January 30 2022 Forecast (8:46AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

The late January storm lived up to expectation, delivering the big snow, especially under synoptic bands that we know would be a factor. There was some good storm surge of 2 to 3 feet along the coast which thankfully occurred outside of high tide, making the flooding less severe than it could have been, although some neighborhoods were impacted by the significant amount of water pushed ashore. The wind damage and power outages were most concentrated on Cape Cod and parts of the South Shore and South Coast, where during the first few hours of the storm the snow was a wetter / pasty consistency that then froze to trees and power lines as the temperature dropped and the wind picked up. The snowfall distribution was as expected for the most part, with a little variability in forecast verification here and there as is nearly always the case with these events. Blizzard conditions were verified for several locations “officially”, including Worcester which wasn’t even under a blizzard warning, essentially making it the “Blizzard of 2022” for all points Worcester eastward. One of the bigger surprises of the storm for me was the persistence of an orphaned snow band that sat in central MA for a few hours after the storm had taken all of its “connected” snow offshore. Areas that initially slightly under-performed for snowfall made it up at that point. If there was a place where amounts were a little lighter than expected, that would be southern NH and north central MA, but this can often be the coast with a fairly quick drop off in amounts away from a storm that is concentrating its full fury closer to the coast, with drier air there and lack of heavier snowfall bands to make it into those areas. But with the storm now behind us, all that’s left is the post storm recovery (cleanup, power restoration), and the weather, while cold, will be fair and favorable for such efforts during these final 2 days of January 2022, under the influence of a cold Canadian high pressure area. The wind will still be up enough today for some additional blowing of the powdery snow that fell, so keep that in mind if you are going to be out doing cleanup or other activities. It’s also important to keep in mind that many areas will be dealing with large snow banks along the sides of streets and especially street corners. Tonight, as winds drop off, the temperature will drop down, with the deep snow cover aiding in radiational cooling of what little solar heat we had during the day, so it’s going to be quite a cold one, with a tiny bit more recovery in temperature expected during the day Monday. And then it’s time for a change as we enter February. High pressure moves offshore Tuesday and we start to moderate more significantly. By Wednesday, a disturbance goes by with a rain shower risk as milder air overtakes the region, and this mild air will continue through Thursday. Previously, it looked like Thursday may turn into wet day, but there are some indications that high pressure ridging will be strong enough to hold the next system off to the north and west that day, keeping our area dry. Going with that idea for now and will keep an eye on it for changes.

TODAY: Sunny. Blowing snow at times. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +3 interior, 3-10 coast. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24 evening, rising overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Temperatures steady 30-37 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

February 4 looks unsettled with a frontal boundary pushing through the region with rain and mild air to start and then colder air coming in possibly turning the rain to snow or at least snow showers before it comes to an end. February 5-6 look colder/dry, as does the end of the period, but we may have to watch a disturbance for some precipitation around February 7.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

General idea for this period is a chilly / dry start and a milder / unsettled finish with lots of fine tuning needed for specifics as we get closer to mid month.

Saturday January 29 2022 Forecast (2:22AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

It’s storm time. All the pre-talk and prep is done. The snow got into the region even a little more quickly than I thought with the help of a frontal boundary sitting just to the south, but also there are signs that the dry air entering the back side of our system also helps shut the snow down a little earlier this evening, so we’re still looking at a just-under-24-hour snow event. But it’s all about what goes on in between the start and end times. As of 2AM, it’s actually raining on Nantucket and outer parts of Cape Cod, but that will change to snow soon as colder air works in. The low pressure area that developed rapidly off the US Southeast Coast last evening will move north northeastward into the vicinity of the 40/70 benchmark during today into this evening, and I’m pretty sure we’ll see this low center have a temporarily elongated configuration, so we’ll have to see if this has any impact on the orientation and movement of the synoptic banding features that will be associated with it. It is under these bands where snowfall rates of 1 1/2 to 3 inches per hour are possible, while most of the time during the peak storm hours, rates of closer to 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch per hour are likely. The snow will be a powdery consistency over most of the area, but will be a little more medium to slightly wetter consistency as you head out through Cape Cod and the islands. It is those areas that would potentially see more in the way of tree limb damage and resultant power outages. I suspect that dry air is going to eat into the back side of the storm and cut the snow off fairly quickly from west to east from about dusk through early evening, which is a little earlier than I was thinking earlier (closer to midnight). Snowflake size will be smaller than what we saw in our recent substantial snowfall, so the “fluff factor” will be a little less. What snow is falling and on the ground will be blowing around quite a bit, hence the blizzard warning for eastern MA, southeastern NH, and RI, where we are most likely to see the criteria met – 3+ hours of visibility 1/4 mile or less due to falling and blowing snow with sustained or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or higher. As for accumulation, I left my previous numbers the same which was basically starting with 10-18 inches for everybody, but 18-24 inches occurring in the regions most impacted by the synoptic banding for the longest time. It is also in these bands where thundersnow is possible. Is there the potential for greater than 24 inches? Yes, but I feel this will be more of an isolated occurrence than something that covers a larger area. If somebody gets around 10 inches, that’s most likely be southwestern NH and parts of central MA. Regardless of what falls, the snow will be hard to measure due to the considerable blowing/drifting. There’s no change in the wind expectations, with frequent 30-50 MPH gusts inland and 50-70 MPH in coastal areas, with spot gusts to around 80 MPH in some coastal areas. Coastal flooding concerns will be there for both this morning’s and this evening’s high tides, with east and north facing shores having mostly minor to spotty moderate flooding with the morning high, and north facing shores more vulnerable to some moderate flooding for the evening high, although by then the storm will have peaked and starting to ease, so this will help avoid the worst possible scenario. So that about covers the storm, and I’ll add additional thoughts in the comments section during the day. Not much change to the outlook beyond this. Dry and chilly weather Sunday-Monday to end January, but good for post-storm cleanup. February arrives with a moderating trend and a chance of more unsettled weather as we head toward the middle of next week, but the set-up for the next system indicates rain chances and lots of melting snow. More on that after we get by today’s event.

TODAY / THIS EVENING: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, tapering off evening. Thundersnow possible. Snow accumulations 10-18 inches with bands of 18-24 inches and spot amounts of greater than 24 inches possible. Blizzard conditions southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, ending evening. Pre-dawn temperatures starting out 25-30 northwest of Boston and 30-35 to the southeast to the teens northwest and 20s southeast during the day. Wind chill falling below zero at times especially Boston west and north. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH inland and 25-40 MPH with gusts 50-70 MPH coast with isolated gusts 75-80 MPH possible.

LATE EVENING / OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds. Perhaps a snow flurry. Lows 12-19. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts with strongest in the late evening, diminishing a little overnight. Wind chill often below zero.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts. Areas of blowing snow at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22 evening, rising overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Mild with periods of rain or rain showers February 3-4, followed by colder air with dry weather mid period and a snow chance later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Starting out chilly, then milder again. Additional unsettled weather threats.

Friday January 28 2022 Forecast (7:49AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Temperatures went up overnight – what a balmy morning! Well, in comparison to recent temperatures it feels rather mild. This is a brief interlude of milder air though today, ahead of a cold front that will bring us back to the colder side of things just in time for the arrival of our Saturday storm. But before that, we may see a few snow showers with the slow passage of the cold front today. Our Saturday storm has not even formed yet, and will do so this evening when a couple pieces of energy arrive from different places and start a storm party. Low pressure forms then moves north northeast and rapidly intensifies, passing somewhere in the vicinity of the 40/70 benchmark, could be a little bit either side, and could do a little wiggle in its track as it responds to changes in the upper level steering winds. These little details will help shape the specific development, orientation, and behavior of the snowfall area and any heavier banding and lighter snowfalls that can and often do develop in between heavier bands. Basic timing for onset of snow is from south to north during the overnight / pre-dawn hours of Saturday, then a storm that peaks during the day and evening, and leaves us late evening Saturday to very early Sunday morning. Two high tide cycles need to be watched for minor to moderate coastal flooding, the morning and the evening high tides on Saturday, with north-facing coastal areas the most vulnerable due to a northeast to north wind. The low’s track and behavior will determine whether or not a mix of rain gets involved over Nantucket and the outer portion of Cape Cod for part of the storm. I don’t think much rain will get in there, but the snow there will likely be a little wetter / stickier consistency due to that milder atmosphere, compared to the powder type of snow we see across the remainder of the region. The fluff factor may not be as great in this storm as it was in our recent significant snowfall, as the flakes may be much smaller in size. This can have an impact on overall accumulation too – a factor I have considered. Will blizzard conditions occur? Blizzard conditions occur when you have a period of 3 or more hours of sustained wind or frequent wind gusts over 35 MPH, combined with considerable falling and/or blowing snow (doesn’t have to be falling snow, but will be here), reducing visibility to under 1/4 mile. This is definitely possible especially closer to the coast where the wind is likely to meet that criteria versus points further inland. But still, inland areas can expect plenty of blowing snow, and drifting of the fallen snow, regardless of whether or not they reach “official” blizzard status. There used to be a temperature criteria for a blizzard (below 20F, below 10F for a “severe blizzard”) but these were dropped by NWS. Ironically, much of the region may meet the old temperature critera anyway. Power outages are always possible in a storm like this, but I think the drier nature of the snow and the leafless trees will be a mitigating factor. Once this storm exits, we’ll be left with a cold but dry day on Sunday, breezy but not too bad, so that post-storm cleanup can proceed without hindrance. The cold and dry weather will continue through Monday, the final day of January, before we see a moderation to greet February on Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving overnight south to north. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow, varying intensities, may fall very heavily under banding features with significant rates of accumulation. Blowing and drifting snow. Blizzard conditions possible, especially near the coast. Highs 17-24 except 24-31 Cape Cod / Islands. South Shore to Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH inland and 25-40 MPH with gusts 50-70 MPH coast with isolated gusts 75-80 MPH possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off. Total snow accumulation 10-18 inches with bands of above 18-24 inches and isolated greater than 24 inch amounts possible, but not definite. Blowing and drifting snow. Lows 12-19. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts with strongest in the evening, diminishing a little overnight.

SUNDAY: Early clouds, then sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts. Areas of blowing snow at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22 evening, rising overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Milder with rain chances at times early-mid period . Colder later in the period, may end it with a snow chance.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Starting out chilly, then milder again. Additional unsettled weather threats.

Thursday January 27 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)

Low temperatures at dawn range from just below zero to the lower 20s, coldest spots being in north central MA and southwestern NH, warmest being over Cape Cod. This is typical for a mid winter morning in SNE. We’ll enjoy a sunny day today but it will be pretty cold, however with light wind. Clouds will move in tonight ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the west, and this boundary will be in the region on Friday with a mostly cloudy sky and the chance of a few snow showers, but nothing impactful. As this is going on we’ll start to see a storm system take shape off the US Southeast Coast. We’ve seen (and continue to see) many of the same typical model antics leading up to this thing over the last few days, but sorting through all of that I’ve come up the following. The storm’s track will be offshore, but exactly how far offshore is still a little bit of a mystery. However, I feel it will be close enough to give the entire WHW forecast area a significant snowfall starting late Friday night / early Saturday morning, and tapering off during Saturday night. The storm will also produce a lot of wind and cause coastal flooding especially around the times of high tide Saturday morning and evening as tides will also be astronomically high. Sunday will feature dry weather with sunshine and chilly air, but a good day for post-storm cleanup, and on the current track I expect a generally lower water content snowfall for most of the region which helps with cleanup as you don’t have waterlogged snow to deal with. Fair and chilly weather will continue Monday as high pressure controls to close January.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 22-29 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow. Blowing and drifting snow. Significant snow accumulation expected. Highs 18-25 except 25-32 South Shore to Cape Cod. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow tapering off. Total snow accumulation 8-15 inches with a couple bands or areas above 15 inches favoring areas east of I-95. Blowing and drifting snow likely. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Milder weather the first few days of February along with a chance of a couple rounds of rain shower activity especially around February 4. Turning colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Overall milder pattern, but may start out on the cold side first with a snow/rain threat as we transition back to milder again.