Thursday September 24 2020 Forecast (7:30AM)

15 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Discussion…

The seas have calmed down, the fire danger remains high, and this round of high altitude smoke has been sporadic and not nearly as thick as the previous one. The feel of summer is back and will continue through the weekend, but will there be any rain between now and then? No. We’ll see high clouds fanning across the sky today from the remains of Beta, the last active tropical system from the Atlantic Basin before the current quieter period. A cold front will arrive Friday, pretty much unnoticed, as it will be falling apart upon arrival. It may result in a few cumulus clouds – that’s about it. The weekend will see a gradual increase in humidity with the source region of our air basically a modified version of the tropical air mass that Beta was born in over the Gulf of Mexico several days ago. By Monday, we finally can talk about a chance of showers as the first of a series of fronts approaches in response to a larger scale trough developing and moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes. It’s too early to know the intensity and coverage of shower activity, and we can fine-tune that outlook as it gets closer.

Details…

TODAY: Sun, high clouds, and high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29- OCTOBER 3)

The passage of an upper trough of low pressure will take place during the last couple days of September to the first couple days of October, with our area on the warmer and more humid side to start with, ending up on the cooler and drier side eventually. A few episodes of showery weather are likely during the transition.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

Watch for a quick wet weather event to start the period if energy from the west interacts with moisture near the East Coast, otherwise high pressure takes back over with mainly dry and mild weather for the balance of the period.

15 thoughts on “Thursday September 24 2020 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  3. I remain less than bullish on our chances for significant or even moderate rainfall amounts in the Sunday-Wednesday timeframe, but my initial instincts about the timing I think is going to prove to be well off. I was thinking a period of region wide rainfall would be centered around Monday / Monday evening. Be it more from a frontal passage than the trough moving more eastward and being simultaneously enhanced with mid-Atlantic moisture, which I never bought into.

    Now, I see the trough slowing and deepening over the Great Lakes, which delays sensible weather outcomes, and keeps any moisture enhancement from rain encroaching from the south from taking place.

    I think temperatures stay warm Saturday into Tuesday with some limited shower chances until Tuesday evening where chances will rise, but overall the area where most people live in SNE I suspect stay on the lower end of guidance rainfall amounts with the best chances for enhanced amounts to our West and North West.

      1. Oops, sorry. No, it’s not. Red = Extreme Drought.
        If you look at the landscape, it is exceptionally dry.

  6. My weekend outlook is up: https://stormhq.blog/2020/09/24/weekend-outlook-september-25-28-2020/

    I agree with JMA that I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of rainfall with this system, and what does fall will likely be more showery focused on Monday/Monday night.

    For the drought – you’ll see a map on my Weekly Outlook that is different from the one that everyone uses from the Drought Monitor. If you go to Drought.gov, you can click on the map by state, and instead of just the one we usually see for the Northeast, it gives you a more zoomed-in version that you can move around. For the Southern New England View, go to: https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/massachusetts (the data on left is for Massachusetts only).

  8. One last thunderstorm potential for 2020???
    From NWS Boston
    At some point, most likely Tuesday evening a southerly low level jet of 60-70 knots at 850 mb moves across southern New England. There is about 500-1000 Joules of CAPE forecast with 0-1km helicity values in the 200-300 range in the slopes of the Berkshires and CT River valley. Have introduced a slight chance of thunderstorms for those areas Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. While it is way too far in advance to predict severe weather, this pattern is one that could produce it, especially to our southwest…something to watch for in the days ahead.

    1. Probably not the last potential. 🙂 History shows we can have thunderstorms any month of the year.

  9. That is very true. Severe weather can happen in the fall. The October 1979 Windsor Locks CT F4 tornado comes to mind when thinking about fall severe weather events.

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