Monday November 30 2020 Forecast (7:56AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Discussion…

On this final day of November our main focus will be a storm system that will impact the region today, as well as into the first couple days of December, albeit much less so after this evening. The evolution of this system began over the weekend as a jet stream trough made its way eastward across the US. Surface low pressure developing near the western Gulf Coast region and has made its way northeastward as of this morning to a point it is about to move northeastward out of the Tennessee Valley then up the Appalachians and into the St. Lawrence Valley via New York State. The upper level system driving it is becoming a closed off low pressure area and as the surface storm maxes out while passing west of New England, a strong pressure gradient between it and offshore high pressure will result in a strengthening southerly wind flow across our area today. Also a significant ribbon of moisture will produce a significant bout of rainfall in the form of steady moderate to heavy rain ahead of a warm front then widespread moderate to heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms in the warm sector after the warm frontal passage and ahead of the cold front from midday through late evening. It is in the warm sector with the convective rainfall that the both the strongest gradient wind and strongest wind gusts will occur. If you have outdoor decorations, make sure they are secured as strong wind gusts could disturb them greatly. With trees mainly leafless, the chance of tree damage has dropped off, but some older, weakened trees may still come down or lose limbs, and this can result in some property damage and/or power outages. Street and parking lot flooding will be an issue due to heavy rain, and exacerbated where any leaves block storm drains. Coastal flooding will not be a significant issue as the tide should be shy of reaching its high for the night while the strongest winds occur, and this particular tide is not nearly as high as the series with saw with the new moon a couple of weeks ago. Once the axis of moisture gets beyond our region, the clouds will break and the air will remain quite mild overnight into Tuesday, but being on the eastern side of a closed low pressure area keeps us in the risk area for additional rain showers, although these should be just scattered. So December will start off feeling a bit more like a day in mid spring. As the upper low lifts its way into and through eastern Canada, our winds turn more westerly here Wednesday and Thursday, driving drier and seasonably chilly air into our area. By Friday, the next low pressure trough will be moving in from the west rather quickly (a little more quickly than previously anticipated) so the weather will be unsettled, mild enough for rain, but not nearly as stormy as the system we will see later today.

Details…

TODAY: Overcast. Rain arriving late morning through midday southwest to northeast, may be heavy at times during the afternoon. Highs 57-64 occurring late-day. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts all areas by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight with a chance of additional isolated to scattered rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 15-35 MPH with gusts as high as 45-60 MPH evening (gusts above 60 MPH may occur in isolated coastal locations and higher elevations), shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning, then falling through 50s by late-day. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 31-38 occurring in the evening. Temperatures may rise overnight. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

A lot of uncertainty in this period. Watching the computer models try to “figure this out” has been interesting. Based on what I know through Friday, my best guess is the previous “weekend storm threat” actually holds off until the December 6-7 time frame with the first part of the weekend more likely to be dry. The storm that would result from the passage of a low pressure trough has a very questionable evolution and potential track, so it will be something to watch for now and I will once again try to pin down more detail as we get closer. A period of windy/colder weather would likely follow this threat (whether the storm impacted the region or missed it), perhaps with some snow showers.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Continuing to watch the potential for a colder and stormier period of weather in this time frame due to less high pressure in the US Southeast and a temporary disruption of the polar jet stream with indications for a fairly large scale trough of low pressure impacting the central and eastern US, including our region. Low confidence forecast at this time.

83 thoughts on “Monday November 30 2020 Forecast (7:56AM)”

    1. Agree on all gov’t outlooks. As we now have learned during the past 10 years with our best tools so far, and more cameras than ever, this type of “cold season” event is far more common than we once realized. This set-up is one we’ve already seen a couple of times to some degree this autumn, and it doesn’t surprise me one bit that it’s occurring again. It reflects the large scale pattern we’re in.

  8. Thanks, TK…
    55 knots (63 mph) seems to be a constant for us here in Taunton.

    The stronger gusts also seem to be prolonged for several hours which is concerning me a little.

    1. I haven’t gotten that particular one yet, but I’m sure it will come through in batches depending on the carrier, etc.

      Thanks for posting. 🙂

      1. My daughter just pointed out it is RI and not MA. Sorry about that. I have no idea why I’m getting emergency alerts from RI

        1. Probably because you live close enough that you could
          possible work in RI or visit RI for shopping etc. Just a thought.

        3. Maybe they consider you an honorary RI resident because you’re close enough. 😉 … No biggie. I still like to track the behavior of these alerts, whether or not they are weather-related. It all is related in the long run. 🙂

  11. Thanks TK.

    Will be keeping an eye on the severe potential down this way at work this afternoon. Pretty much agree with all the outlooks and what TK has said, though I have some suspicion the potential doesn’t get realized today.

  12. Much as it looks like we’re “wasting” this pattern from a cold/snow perspective, and to some extent we are, the pattern towards 12/10 and beyond still looks very favorable to me for additional East Coast storminess, with colder outcomes favored with time. Basically the same thinking as what TK has indicated above.

  13. So based on that time period the Farmers’ Almanac prediction of a major east coast storm between Dec.12-15th might happen? They are due to get something to right. I will be surprised if there 12-24 inch snowstorm happens second week of February when all the long range outlooks are calling for below normal snowfall above normal temps that month. It is pure entertainment for me reading their predictions.

    1. Anything they get “right” on a day-to-day weather forecast made the July before is pure luck. 🙂

      I do love that publication though. I always have. 🙂

      1. My barber always says I don’t know how they get it right when it comes to the Farmers’ Almanac when one of their predictions happens. I tell him when the big winter weather events are predicted and he writes them down in his book and we look back when winter is over and see what actually happened. The majority of the time nothing happens but there has been that rare time where their prediction happens.

        1. Exactly. The majority of the time it’s wrong, and once in a while it’s right, by luck, not by meteorological skill, because forecasting individual storms becomes impossible beyond several days in advance, let alone half a year, or a year. 😉

  17. 51 here in JP. Showing NO rain in the bucket yet even though
    radar says there should be some there. Eye test shows
    pavements just barely wet.

  19. Warm front has come through the a nice shower. You can notice the change in humidity and the winds have come up a little. Sun wants to come out.

    1. While the means have been somewhat consistent, the individual members have had extremely wide-ranging solutions, more so than we see most of the time. This casts some doubt into the means.

      It continues to be a product of deficient data, which we will see for some time to come yet.

    1. Keep track of what it does with that low center (except when it forgets it may exist) over the next several runs. 😉

  22. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    I’m watching the convection just east of southern NJ ….

    I think this may be a watcher for 3-4 hrs from now.

    Feel like there’s a bit of shear there with the lowest clouds moving south to north and the taller convective clouds moving SSW to NNE.

    Looks like the winds off the NJ coast out over the o be an must be strong as though low clouds look like they are hauling.

        2. I wonder if activity does verify in this watch area, and depending on the dynamics above us, if some sort of severe thunderstorm watch may get put into effect in some part of southern New England for this evening:

  24. While this is not going to be the “final solution”, today’s operational 12z ECMWF indicates the scenario I was describing in my discussion regarding December 4 on through the weekend of Dec 5-6 and into the start of next week.

  25. It won’t happen but the 12z EURO showing Boston will have more snow than all of last winter by the middle of next week.

      1. Technically, that solution would be on the table that is cluttered with a vast variety of potentials.

          1. Well, I’d believe it when I see it too. It’s just one of MANY potential outcomes (as I mentioned earlier). 🙂

  31. Going to be an interesting next 3 – 5 hts for convection and associated wind gusts in addition to what is already going.

    Watching next batch of strong thunderstorms firing again just east of southern NJ.

  32. Wind has recently gusted to 51 mph at Logan and 52 mph at Norwood. it certainly has been howling here in JP!

    0.47 inch so far here.

  35. Yikes Captain. Gusting into 40s here now.

    I took the manger and reindeer down and had to literally pause and just stand during a few gusts and that was around 3. The manger is held in by two 3.5 ft stakes that have literally bent at ground level in the past while holding it in place. But the ground is mush these are the decorations. Please ignore lighting of the tree behind deer. No idea why it came out so funky

          1. Thanks, tom and jean….they go up easily so will definitely be up again. I only took the bodies off the dear and left the legs so I didn’t have to secure all 12 legs again. If the wind gods are willing, the legs won’t be down the street tomorrow 🙂 :’

          2. Jean, we loved the nutcracker…my oldest (13) grand has been fascinated by it from a really young age. He narrated the entire performance knowing what was coming next and what country dancers were from, etc. his favorite is mother ginger and sadly she did not appear. Still he has watched it several more times

            Did you watch?

  37. Very strong wind gusts well into the 60s came through and took out the pine tree in the front yard, went right into the cherry tree that has decorations on it and is still partially suspended up in the air. I wish it went the other way and further away from the house. So I could just cut it. No one is able to come and cut it down unfortunatly. Now only if people listened to the environmental science major saying the pine tree is diseased and weak back in october 😉

    1. Totally agree, Tom. It’s raining here now as hard as it has all day. Surprised a Flash Flood Warning hasn’t been hoisted.

  41. 0z GFS and 0z CMC now both showing a coastal storm later next weekend with significant snow across interior New England and a rain to snow scenario closer to the coast.

    GFS:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020120100&fh=150

    CMC:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020120100&fh=138

    Let’s see if the 00z Euro maintains this idea as well…

  42. I think the last of the heavy bands just passed through the north shore. It’s suddenly much quieter.

  43. Rain delivered. 2,27 inches in the bucket.
    Wind delivered. Did NOT lose power here.

    After teasing us yesterday, the Euro just took a dump on our faces!

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