Friday September 17 2021 Forecast (7:23AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

The cold front that crawled across our region late Wednesday and Thursday is washing out near the South Coast today, never really having delivered much dry air, and now we have an established onshore air flow for today and tonight as low pressure organizes off the US Mid Atlantic Coast and heads north then northeastward. A combination of moisture from this low and the old frontal boundary keeps the chance of showers near the South Coast, especially Cape Cod and the Islands, for a while today, but the bulk of the moisture from this low will be passing southeast of New England through early Saturday. The low itself is acquiring tropical characteristics and will likely become a tropical depression and eventually a tropical storm as it makes its trek over the water off the coast. This has some indirect impact on our weekend, sending higher swells and rough surf back to the coast, increasing rip current risk for late-season beach visits. Use caution if planning to be in the water, especially Sunday. As for our weekend weather, drier air will start to move in as that low moves away during Saturday, but a weakening cold front will also be moving across the region from the northeast Saturday evening. It looks like most of the shower activity with this front will stay to the north of our area. High pressure then builds in during Sunday through early next week, the center of it probably staying just north to east of the region, with fair weather being the result.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers Cape Cod and Islands region mainly this morning. Patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal locations. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Foggy areas. Lows 60-67. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start with areas of fog, then increasing sun especially away from the coast. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible mid to late evening. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind variable to E 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

High pressure shifts offshore by the beginning of this period with a warm start to the period. The next weather questions to answer will be the timing of a trough / cold front from the west, which I think comes through sometime September 23 with an opportunity for showers, before drier and cooler air comes in behind that for September 24 before it warms up September 25. Will watch for the approach of the next weather system with wet weather chances for the very end of the period, though it may be slow enough to allow our region to get through the September 25-26 weekend rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Wet weather may start this period before a shot of dry and cooler air, a quick warm-up, more unsettled weather, then another shot of cool air to end September and start October. While timing is lower confidence the confidence is higher for an overall west-to-east pattern being the cause of the changeable weather.

51 thoughts on “Friday September 17 2021 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Greeted by “morning darkness” out the door for the first time. Not a shred of light with no birds chirping or squirrels running around. No more sunrise until mid-April 2022. That time of the season has now “officially”arrived. Oh well.

    1. I was surprised when I noticed it was quite dark at 7:10 last night. I always like the earlier nights in fall and am no longer awake for the mornings. Mac liked when it was light as he left for work very early. If I were walking, as I think you are, I’m sure I’d prefer light.

    2. I just realized that too. Yesterday afternoon also. I was sure it was going to pour yet there wasn’t a drop showing anywhere on the radar.

      1. Thanks. My friend posted a photo from Sutton with what looks like two feet of snow. She seems quite confident it was on this date 2014. I suspect the photo got mixed up with others. I’m finding a high of 71 and low around 48 on that date.

        1. Definitely a major mixup. We’ve never had a major snowstorm anywhere in southern New England in summer. At least not during the age of humans.

  10. Thanks TK !

    Our dp is about64-65F.

    Bordering on that feeling of not comfortable, but not truly uncomfortable. Kind of like wanting to keep the A/C on to dry out the air, but also the windows open cause its not really warm.

      1. Yesterday I took a quick glance at the 2022 OFA and it has above normal snowfall for SNE, but doesn’t it every year? 😉

        1. Go with the opposite. This is how I feel about both almanacs. They are both fun to read and I look back when winter is over to see if they got anything right.

  13. Humidity continues, as Tom mentioned.

    In my building there is a door leading out of the courtyard (into a long hallway that leads to the back door) that just doesn’t shut from mid June through late August, due to humidity. You can push it really hard, but then the door frame breaks (has happened), so I advise all residents not to try and force it. By the first week of September, it almost invariably becomes much easier to close the door. Between 2003 and 2021 only twice before has it been this late in the season that the door won’t shut. It’s been that humid for that long. Also, there have been so few dry days in terms of dew points that the door and door frame haven’t had a chance to dry out.

    1. I think that the meteorological community should consider adding that door to their arsenal of measurement tools.

    3. Joshua, I laughed out loud when I read your comment.

      I’ve mentioned my bedroom door (a double door) in the past. I gauge humidity by whether the cat can push it open because it is swollen and won’t close. And then on the flip side, by whether it shrinks and pushes easily when closed.

      I’m always amazed by how quickly the door can change.

    1. I can take provide some door reading in the Lunenburg area. Our old house has plenty of them. In addition, the Historical Society that I am part of has two front doors. In humid conditions, we have to switch from using the left door to using the right door. This year was the longest right-door season on record!

      2. Ok I’m now moving from weather predicted by doors to being jealous thinking that you may have an antique home.

  16. Philip…
    It’s “The Farmer’s Almanac” out of Maine that calls for the harsh winter every year.

    “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” out of NH happens to be calling for one this upcoming winter.

    As I always say, the forecasts are useless since they are made weeks to months before the parameters we need for a half-decent attempt at a seasonal forecast have even occurred or started to occur, but they are “fun” to read.

    Still, as always, I love the old fashioned feel of the almanacs for the great information in there and the semi-related-to-weather-but-not-forecasting information you can also get. 🙂

  17. SClarke, so we have a humidity record to report from Lunenburg: “longest right-door season.” I’m guessing the door in my building that I was referring to won’t budge much (without a lot of effort) for at least another week or so. That would set a `record.’

    1. I’m ashamed. You guys are way ahead of me. I have not thought to keep track of door temperature dates. I promise to get better at it.

  18. I messaged my friend that I mentioned above re September snow that i didn’t think I it had ever snowed in New England in sept. She did more research and graciously said she had found the reason she thought it was that date but now knows it was not. Thanks everyone here for your help. The time period was when Mac was in the middle of his battle so I don’t remember many things from then

    1. Watching the fog roll in at the football game was really cool. Kind of represented the way Burlington played tonight … unfortunately for them, fortunately for us. 😉

      1. Nice. I love that feeling. I know you do also.

        We were surprised as we drove up the hill around 4:00 to the farm I often mention in Sutton. It was surrounded by fog

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