Friday November 19 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)

38 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A strong cold front moved through from west to east overnight, putting a quick end to our brief warm treat. The cloudiness also blocked a fair amount of the lunar eclipse that was ongoing, but the clearing line did move in quickly enough from the west, combined with the moon lowering in the western sky, to allow many areas from the I-95 belt westward to view the last hour or so of the event (myself included here in Woburn). The moon in my area and others as well was then re-obscured by advancing stratocumulus clouds, which mark the arrival of colder air. We’ll see these clouds mixing with the sun today and later a few of them may grow enough to produce a brief shower of rain, graupel, or snow, with no impact from them where they occur. After high temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s yesterday, today will be a “back-to-reality” day with high temperatures from the middle 40s to around 50 this morning before they hold steady or fall during the afternoon along with a gusty breeze. High pressure will move right over the region tonight into Saturday with winds dropping off. After a cold night and early morning, it recovers back to the 40s Saturday, which by then will feel nice because of the lack of wind. A warm front approaching on Sunday will bring more cloudiness to the region, but the day will be rain-free. We get into the warm sector for a while into Monday, but that will be a wet day as a cold front approaches from the west, parented by low pressure passing north of the region. Once the front goes by, it gets far enough offshore for drying out here, but low pressure will form on the front east of New England then get captured by upper level low pressure and do a loop to our northeast (Canadian Maritimes back to northern Maine) Tuesday. This will enhance a chilly wind here, and perhaps a few rain and/or snow showers may wheel southwestward back into our region, but not looking at any significantly stormy weather here.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing rain/graupel/snow shower. Highs 45-52 in the morning, falling slowly through the 40s during the afternoon. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving late evening or overnight. Lows 39-46. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers. Highs 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Highs 40-47. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Low pressure offshore and high pressure approaching from the west means a breezy and cold start to November 24, but the day before Thanksgiving is expected to be dry with wind settling down during the day and good conditions for travel both local and into and out of the region. High pressure will bring fair and slightly milder weather for Thanksgiving Day (Nov 25). A weakening frontal boundary brings the risk of a rain shower later next Friday (Nov 26) and right now the weekend of November 27-28 looks generally dry and seasonably chilly.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Watching the chance for a precipitation event in the November 29-30 window of time followed by drier weather the first few days of December, based on current anticipated timing of weather systems many days ahead.

38 thoughts on “Friday November 19 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)”

    1. That is this particular model’s depiction of this area of energy on this particular run, but yes.

      1. Understood. I suppose, it is worth watching.
        I am not excited at this point and besides, unless the set up
        were perfect, any snow would likely fall at inland locations.

        Let’s see if it is even there on the 12Z runs.

  14. I know I’ve asked this here before, but what are some good mid-range home weather stations? My wife keeps asking what I want for xmas and this is the year I want to really try one of these out. Looking for wireless and computer integration, rainfall gauge, wind speed and direction, temp, humidity, dewpoint, UV, etc.

    1. That would be an awesome gift. I am not a fan of my accu but that is because my verizon signal stinks once we move away from the house.

      I added one to my Christmas list to supplement the Accu…..my youngest shops for Mac….but it isn’t computer integrated.

    2. I like the Davis Instrument Line. Not sure if it qualifies as mid-range. But they have a wonderful mobile app associated with it which I use daily.

  17. 19 days into the month and Boston is currently in first place for clearest (sky) November since the measurement began long ago.

  18. 12z GFS a bit south with the storm threat next weekend. Cold air is in place but the block is actually a bit too strong and keeps the storm south. Still bears watching….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021111912&fh=258

    The end of that GFS run looks better for getting some more sustained colder air in here in early December.

    The Euro weeklies for December are decently cold through the month as well. Much needed for the ski areas if this forecast holds. It has been a slow start to the season thus far.

    1. Looking at the 500, 300 and 200 mb charts, I suppose there
      is some wiggle room. Needs to be a watched for sure.

  22. We’re not likely to “see” the first measurable snow for Boston show up on a model run many days ahead of when it happens. Given the recent and current behavior of guidance in general, the “don’t trust it more than a few days in advance” rule will be very much needed. I mean, after all, remember the relentless rain/snow/ice “the models” were predicting for Thanksgiving Week just a handful of days ago (and that I didn’t buy)? Yeah… I have nothing further at this time your honor.

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