DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
I had a dream that the GFS run from November 13 was right after all and despite 12-hour forecasts of a clear and cold morning we woke up to a foot and a half of snow in the Boston area with a strong northerly wind! I’m kidding of course – this was the GFS’s dream back then and it may be dreaming again, but we’ll re-visit that a little later in this blog post. First, we do have a clear and cold morning after a windy and cold night. I could hear neighbor’s barrels (it’s trash day here on Woods Hill) going down in the middle of the night. Thankfully in our area we don’t have much of a mess. My across-the-street neighbor’s barrel went over and 2 bags exited it, but thankfully stayed tightly tied, and I just had to pick up the barrel and put the 2 bags back in. Those that can forecast the wind might have waited until 6:30 a.m. to drag the stuff to curbside. I waited. And now 10 barrels full of autumn yard debris, 4 bins full of recycling, and 1 lonely trash barrel sit there in a 5-15 MPH breeze, not facing the fate of the take-down and empty-out. Timing is everything! 😉 And now you know more than you ever wanted about my trash strategy and how many bins and barrels I had to put out, but we can move on. A great day weatherwise today for travel and even outdoor activities as we keep the chill but lose the wind with high pressure moving much closer. There were 2 high school football Thanksgiving games at Fenway Park in Boston last evening and the wind chill was pretty rough there. Tonight, there are two more, and I will be at the second one, watching the 4th oldest rivalry in the state (Woburn vs. Winchester) under a clear sky and light wind with temperatures in the 30s. Not too bad compared to some of the Thanksgiving morning weather we’ve seen for these games, including a recent teens with wind chill below zero game. Brr!! And by the way, go Woburn! High pressure slides offshore on Thursday and we will see the sky start to fill with more clouds as the day goes on, but it will be a dry and milder day, excellent for all the morning football games and running races, and local visits for the holiday. After a chilly start, we’ll recover nicely with most areas going over 50 for highs. Then comes our one unsettled day of this 5-day forecast period – Friday, or “Black Friday” for the shopping among us. Low pressure will pass north of our region but drag a warm front followed by a cold front west-to-east across the region. While this system’s warm front will generate limited precipitation, its warm sector will have a bit more for the cold front to work on, but not enough to result in a significant rainfall event, just a lighter one with a couple rounds of rain showers before the cold front pushes through from west to east from midday to mid afternoon. This should put an end to the rain threat. That precipitation will exit before the cold air is in enough to end it as snow anywhere in the WHW forecast area, but we may see a passing snow flurry a little later in the day or during the evening as a new cold air mass arrives from Canada via the Great Lakes. This will set us up for a cold and breezy Saturday on the southern periphery of a low pressure circulation, but with dry weather, and a continued chilly but more tranquil Sunday as a narrow area of high pressure makes its way into our region.
TODAY: 100% sunshine. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing later.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind W under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with a few episodes of rain and rain showers morning-midday. Breaking clouds later. Highs 41-48 morning, falling below 40 by day’s end. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W from west to east.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow flurry early. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)
Oh look! A couple runs of one medium range model has a more important winter storm for November 29, and it has little or no support from other guidance and generally no support from its own ensemble guidance. That means it’s definitely gonna happen, right?! Not so fast. Where have we seen this before? Yes, I have talked about November 29-30 being a period to watch for a potential event for many days in the blog now, and that is still true, regarding November 29 as I am able to bring the timing a bit more into focus. It would be unwise to talk this system up from a forecasting standpoint right now, given you extract the actual information I just presented to you in a snarky way. Yes, a model has shown it for 2 runs (we won’t even discuss snow amounts it tried to forecast on one of the runs), and no it doesn’t have much support from any other guidance. What this tells me is that we have to continue to watch this potential system, and that our most likely impact from it would be a minor to moderate rain/mix/snow event, with snow most likely away from the coast, occurring November 29. This is day 6. It would be highly unreasonable to try to be any more specific about that right now. Beyond that threat, look for a fair weather end to November, a frontal system bringing a rain/snow shower threat around December 1, and fair, seasonably chilly weather to follow that.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Indications are for a west northwest flow dominating the weather overall. A progressive trough / clipper system may bring a rain/mix/snow threat around mid period. Temperatures average fairly close to normal for the stretch but with some typical variability.