Unstormy

211 Comments

9:45PM

** SHORT TERM UPDATE **

A low pressure wave in the Gulf of Maine has shoved the warm front back to the south as a back-door cold front that has now chilled down southern NH and most of eastern MA. Temperatures have fallen from the lower 40s to the lower 30s and with some fog forming, there may be some patchy ice forming on untreated surfaces overnight. Be aware of this if you are heading outside tomorrow morning as it probably will remain chilly into mid morning.

A slight tweak to the forecast appears in the TONIGHT section below, otherwise, the remainder is unchanged from the original post.

4:34PM

The lack of significant winter storms will continue, in fact there is very little risk of important storminess for the foreseeable future (that is, 7 days, possibly longer). Temperatures will continue to ride a little bit of a roller coaster, though this will not be extreme either. Brief cold shots come between near to above normal temperature stretches, with the midwinter chill being a bit more dominant in the days ahead.

A warm front passed by early Tuesday. Snowfall was less than expected, with most occurring across NH and Maine. A cold front will pass by on Wednesday, but with very  mild air in place expect a risk of rain showers in a short window of time just ahead of the front. Generally dry weather is expected Thursday through the weekend as a sprawling area of high pressure builds across eastern Canada and the northeastern US. Low pressure will pass well south of the region Thursday with no impact.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog with moisture freezing on some untreated surfaces. Low 30-35. Wind light NE.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy through mid afternoon including scattered rain showers late morning to early afternoon, then partly cloudy to mostly sunny remainder of day. High 51-56.  Wind WSW 10-20 MPH shifting to WNW with gusts around 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind WNW 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 22-27. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 38.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 36.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 18. High 38.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 21. High 39.

211 thoughts on “Unstormy”

  3. Vicki- we just came home with the new phones. Went with sprint htc nevo design 4g.
    This is all new to us. All we ever had was just a basic phone. It will take us weeks to figure this thing out, it is loaded.

  5. As I have been saying for awhile now…snowy pattern begins no later than February School Vacation week (20-24th) and hopefully through most of March with a few warm spells thrown in. In the meantime, “nothing to see here” for 1st half of February folks…unfortunately.

  6. There was an analyst on WEEI’s John & Jerry’s morning show and he said that if Brady’s on his butt for most of the game…Pats LOSE 🙁 and if Brady remains upright…Pats likely WIN. 🙂

    I guess that means Matt Light needs to get well…FAST!!! 🙂

    2. That just makes sense. I’m sure light will be better but i believe there are at least three more that can step in for him.

      1. Nate Solder is a rookie and has looked somewhat shaky at times protecting Brady much of this season. Even though Gronk’s boot is off…I’m still worried about him as well.

        It seems everything still favors the Giants in this game. >:-(

  7. Most every street in my neighborhood and from what I can tell, much of the city of Boston is covered in road salt…WHAT A WASTE especially with budgets these days. 🙁

    These last two D-1″ systems have been big busts for Boston…blame it on the Berkshires.

  8. Here is the 2-12 storm possibility, the set up looks fantastic
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F31%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=276&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    500m Vort
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F31%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=276&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  9. I just sent the invite to baileyMan and the ball is in his court, he said he would come. We have been trying to get him here as I think he would fit in well. He seems to know his weather. We wait and see. I am going to try to post later on my new phone, it is charging now.

  10. BaileyMan and WeatherWizard would be excellent additions to this blog. I really hope they come over here once and for all and stop wasting their good posts over at WBZ.

    Frankly, I wish that WBZ would get rid of all posting over there and just have their mets discussions to read like the other stations.

    1. No you are right. WHDH watched BZ to get a feel for how the blogs were going. There is a reason HDH doesn’t have a blog.

  12. Philip I feel the same way about the BZ blog. It was great when it first started but it has become a troll blog.
    Nothing even close to a blizzard today as the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted. They are about as accurate as the groundhog. It will be interesting if the 12 plus inches between the 20th-23rd pans out.

    1. See my first post way above. If my thoughts verify, then that OFA 2/20-23 storm does pan out. Let’s see what happens. 🙂

      1. It is cool. I can speak anything into this phone and it comes up. Bruins score, it pops right up. We were crazy enough to even look at a 200 phone. This phone was 100 and got it for 75. does the same thing as the 200 phone.

  16. That bz site is a joke. Everybody is bashing everybody over there including me on the email I just sent to BM. So bad how they continue to just not care.

    1. I used to love the bz site but then it got silly. Not for nothing though, it’s not very hard to find this site….I mean I did and I’m not a genius or anything:)

      1. You found this on your own. The thing here is that TK can boot anyone who causes trouble here. Most of us have been here the entire year that TK has had this site. We have never had a problem getting along. I call everybody here my friend. And thats what makes this site so good, we all respect each other. We talk weather mostly, but sports as well. Somtimes sombody posts here on a personal note and we all try to listen and encourage that person. I am glad you found this site and hope you enjoy it as much as myself and others here.

      2. My intention has always been to make this blog public. It’s been kept kind of quiet while I learned the ins and outs (I’m not very techie lol). I have a Facebook page for WHW which is there but just not being used yet.

        And yes even when it’s public I can take care of trolls, should they try to do their thing.

        1. I would guess that the majority of people that find WHW will do so via FB and post that way as well.

          1. When you guys started to leave the WBZ blog about a year ago, I actually found this site quite quickly by just googling ‘topkatt88’. 😀

        2. Well you do a good job here. And the one problem we had. you took care of it. You say your not techy. My wife and I just went from a basic phone to the works. It will take me weeks to figure it out. So cool though TK I ask for the score of any game and there it is.

    2. They do the same on their news topics too. Some of the things posters say are horrible. Keller is the only one who seems to keep his blog respectful. I know a bunch of people who no longer will watch BZ because of their blogs

      1. Just so you are all aware – WBZ was told to use that format, as it is a CBS-wide format. They all have the same setup, very easy for trolls to do their trolling.

        1. I had heard that too but it makes no sense when every other blogging format has people register. Makes me think less of CBS

  17. I just noticed that WW’s morning post over at WBZ has been deleted but all the trolls’ crap still there for all to see. Absolutely disgraceful IMO. Why is that????

    Hey John…I reported that troll (Obie) who was picking on you. Hopefully it will be deleted soon. 🙂

  18. Philip I noticed that to when I checked back a few hours ago. His was the best post on there and why it was deleted is mind boggling. BZ should get rid of the comment section on the blog. I know the Farmers’ Almanac got rid of their blog a few years ago and put it back a few months later with an understanding that you are civil to one another and it worked you don’t see any rude comments there.

      1. That is a big mistake on BZ part to block WeatherWizard from the sight. His comments are very good even though
        the stuff he talks about is a little tough to understand.

  19. 3 goals in 7 min. That’s the way to reverse a game. Bet the Ottawa goalie would love to have that shot from the red line back…

  20. Hey TK…why does CBS have so much control over their affiliates as to how they operate their websites? I hope this isn’t a trend the other networks would like to do in the future. I wish WBZ-TV would go back to its “roots” so to speak.

    I have been ranting a lot this evening, haven’t I? 🙂

    1. ABC did it years ago. Channel 5’s web page is not exclusive. Check out all the ABC stations’ web pages.

  21. Hi John, Just read your earlier post about new phones. When I bought my iPhone 4s, (my first smartphone) I ended up going to the Apple class. I couldn’t believe how much I learned, even with just one class. I know VZ offers classes on their smartphones, so you might want to check with your carrier about the same. Good luck learning 🙂

    1. I have been playing with this toy all night speaking into it. This thing just amazes me. So far we love it. Only had it since 4pm today so will see how it goes. Thank’s for the info. For now I think we will just play with them and try to figure it out. We both got the same phone. This is the first phone that we have had where you can search the web and stuff.

  22. NE wind, low overcast, and fog forming over much of eastern MA now. Temps down from lower 40s to lower 30s in most areas.

  25. Thanks TK for the late update. I don’t recall ever experiencing a back-door front in the “dead of winter” no less. Wouldn’t be funny if there is a deep snow cover for March 31-April 1? We will see, Lol. 🙂

    If WW has been banned from WBZ, then so be it. He should be posting over here anyway along with BM.

    Hey John…if you haven’t noticed by now, your troll is now gone as well as several others. 🙂

    1. The back door front, though most common in Spring, can really happen any time of the year. It’s all relative to the weather at the time. And here we sit with a chilly airmass (20s/30s) across northern NE while southwestern NE is in the northeastern edge of an unseasonably mild airmass. This really isn’t much different than we would see in March or even early April – considered to be back-door front season. 🙂

      This winter (so far) is really just a combination of some of the very mild winters we have seen and some of the snow-starved ones (like 1979-1980 or 1980-1981). The relative stability of the pattern is not extremely unusual. Think of the sustained cold of December 1989, or the heat in the summer of 1988. These patterns were stable in that they didn’t change all that much during their run. This is just one of those things, where adjustments are rare and temporary, and the large scale pattern remains largely unchanged over a period of months. History will also show a couple “good” winters like the previous 2 are usually followed by a much more reserved one.

    2. I did see that thank’s. I am only going over there to try to get WW and BM. Thats it, I will never go on that site agan once the mission is compleat.

      1. 🙂

        Hey as long as there is a wave within 500 miles on the GFS anything is still possible that far out.

        I’d laugh if we had one snowstorm there and the rest of the month was dead.

  27. At the base of Mt Washington, the temp is 21F. A couple thousand ft up the mtn, its 37F and at the summit, its 29F. (Data from Mt Washington web site)……….Lots of warmth above, lots of warmth at the surface to our west. It will be interesting to see some of the hourly temp rises later this morning, once the mild air scours out the chilly air from last night.

  28. It looks like right now the first week of February is going to be BORING weatherwise. Maybe something the following weekend but I am not betting the house on it.

    1. don’t count on it J.J.

      I’m not going to buy into any snowstorm this winter until it’s on top of us.

      Looks pretty mild in the long term too. I thought it might go back to seasonal but that might even be wrong.

  29. Sometimes you get winter’s that are duds and this may very well be one of them. It reminds me of when the summer fans back in 2009 were frustrated when summer did not show up until early August.

    2. you should def. post that over on BZ, would be funny to see the triple H lovers get all wriled up 🙂

      1. That summer was awful. I’m curious to see how the winter preceeding that was. Don’t have time to look it up now but I would bet that it was very much like this winter.

  30. With all the clouds around, for areas north of the stalled front, I’m a bit worried about the forecast high temps.

  31. Dark gray sky here in Pembroke, temp not to bad just a small chill in the air. We had a light rain/snow shower move through. Will be interested to see how warm it gets today.

  32. John I hope your right about a couple of big ones. I am rooting for the ALmanac to be right on one of them either the 8th-11th with 4 plus inches of snow or the 20-23rd with 12 plus inches.

    1. I just still can’t see us going the entire winter without at least one big one, but saying that we can all agree I think that time is running out. I mean Feb 1st. For me having this mild winter, It feels like the winter just has flown by. Next month you will be seeing all the landscape trade guys out again in full force. I just think we get one or two storms, that would be somthing if we did not.

      1. John,
        Not sure it is in the cards as they say. It has been virtually impossible to buck this trend. Perhaps after another week or so, but we have been saying that all Winter and same ole, same ole.

        At this point I am ready for Spring.

        1. Wow- You need to go over to M. macks blog from yesterday and see BaileyMans post. He is calling for a major Nor Easter sometime in the time of the 8-12. It did look like him but for him to say we will be getting it 100% seems like a bold call. Check it out. I was kind of in shock reading it.

          1. John,

            I’ll check it out. BUT I’ll believe it when I see it.
            How many of these predicitions have there been this Winter? NONE have panned out.

            1. Old Salty- I think that was him. But why would he stick his neck out like that.
              Is there anyway that could get posted here so the gang can see it. I do not know how to do that.

              1. Here it is and for me, I don’t think it is the real BM. But what do I know?????

                BaileyMan

                Hey Everyone!
                As always It is a pleasure to blog here. (Well? outside of the immature bloggers who only seem to thrive by attacking other bloggers and those bloggers who for whatever reason? use my name and others to post fictious blogs.) In any event, after digesting the array of varied and/or diverse model runs regarding our potential weather from rough Sunday through Friday of next week. I can confidently state, that I sadly do NOT see any major snowstorm for at least 1 week!
                However, despite little evidence, at least from the computer models. I am extremely confident that somewhere around the 10th of Feb. ~ give or take a day or 2, THERE WILL BE A MAJOR NOR EASTER FOR ALL OF NEW ENGLAND! Without a long winded explanation as to WHY? I feel so strongly about that PROBABLITY. Let me just say this, as a weather enthusiast for most of of my 52 years…and based on extensive direct knowledge of antecedant patterns and atmospheric tendencies as depicted by computer models and current synoptic conditions. I have become an expert at projecting the evolution of meteorological variable in various levels of our atmosphere.
                And I AM TELLING ALL OF YOU! So WRITE THIS DOWN! That sometime between the 8th of Feb, to the 12th of Feb. THERE WILL BE A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR ALL, OR A MAJOR PORTION OF SNE! COCKY? Maybe , but that is how I see it! So snow lovers hang tight!
                Have a great night all~

                January 31, 2012 at 6:04 pm | Reply | Report comment

  33. 9 AM obs from Boston. 37, wind calm
    Norwood, 37 Wind Calm
    Top Of Blue Hill, Milton/Canton (elevation something like 620 feet)
    43, wind SW at 17.
    The warm air is coming!!

    And look at the Stellwagen bouy report! Still 42 Degree water on 2/1. I wonder
    if that is an all time record high for this date? Just curious.

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Feb 1 2012, 7:04 am EST
    Wed, 01 Feb 2012 07:04:00 -0500
    Temperature: 37.8 °F (3.2 °C)
    Water Temperature: 42.3 °F (5.7 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.5 m (1.64 ft)
    Dominant Period: 5 sec

  35. If snow is off the table then I agree let’s get right into nice weather. Forget about this winter and live to fight another winter.

    1. Yes I tend to agree but it sure seems like him except for being so bold. If that was not him I think it was a good try by someone.

  40. I was listening to the Today show this morning and they said there were 1,890 records broken across the country in the month of January. Some geese somewhere (ok I was still not fully awake) have returned to their spring home. They say it’s because they are confused but I wonder. Daffodils are sprouting and when mine have come up early in the past it has always meant an early spring. Are the geese and daffodils confused or do they know what we don’t???

  41. Cherry blossoms coming out in D.C. What a difference a year makes. I am going to go out on a limb and say enjoy the mild winter because I don’t see a repeat of this next winter.

      1. I am of the belief no two winters are alike.
        The key is the temps in October and November if they average above normal that tends to lead to a mild snowless
        winter like we are currently experiencing. If they average colder than normal that tends to lead to a colder and
        snowier winter. If you get an October snowfall odds favor a mild snowless winter.

    1. I am with you on that one Hadi. I hope the weather is like this two weeks from now when I have a flight out of here.
      Hopefully if we get the big one it happens when I return late Sunday night.

  43. Either it’s Framingham or my thermometers. It still is in low 40s here according to them and it never got out of low 40s yesterday. I did get a new weather station for Christmas but with being away no one has had opportunity to put it up. This weekend hopefully

    1. Did you start with clouds. It was a dark start here today with a light rain/snow shower I think in the high 30s. It is getting brighter now. According to my new toy the temp is at 52 with a real feel of 48 with a 10mph wind. Sunrise was at 6:57 and setting at 4:58.

        1. When my phone is on it gives you the weather. I than go to a weather app in the phone and it gives me the info. The app is in the phone so I can’t say what app it is.
          This phone came with all the free apps in it.

          1. I suspect it will give me the forcast for where I am. Hanover weather when I got it than went to Pembroke weather. This is all new to me Vicki.

            1. it’s set to allow the phone to determine your location. Mostly I set all apps so they can’t see my location (I’m paranoid:) and then set the locations myself. It’s an individual thing

  44. Vicki, time for that end-of-month snow forecast leaderboard announcement. I don’t sound like too much of a broken record, do I?

    1. and once again with a perfect record so far this season

      LONGSHOT remains in the lead for predicted snow fall totals 🙂

  45. I’ve been reading the boards. In my humble opinion, I do not think that was the real BM. I wish he would just join us already. His posts were always inspiring, right or wrong:)

    1. Well whoever it was the real BM posted last week and said he would check us out. He was invited last night. We will know if it is him or not. For some reason he responds and ends up being a troll, TK can bounce him. Nice to see you on board. How long can a sprained hand bother you for.

      1. If it is truly a sprain then it depends on which type of sprain you have. There are three grades. Type I is a mild sprain which means the ligament has been stretched and can take at most 1-2 weeks to heal. However, a grade III sprain is severe with complete disrruption of the ligament which sometimes requires surgical correction and can take up to 8 weeks to heal. An xray should be performed to exclude a fracture. Try RICE therapy which is rest, ice, elevate and compress with an ACE wrap. An anti-inflammatory such as motrin is also a good adjunctive therapy to take. Feel better:)

        1. Thank’s. Hurt it last thursday at work. Swelled right up, xray showed no break. Work put it in a hard splint. Went to my doctor on friday and was told to leave it splinted till this friday when I go back. Work won’t let me work one handed but I am getting paid. So the big question is. The splint is taken off by the doctor on Friday to examine it. Say if it is not swolen no more but still sore what would be her call in your view. Keep splint off or put back in splint for a few more days. My doctor was off last friday so saw his NP, and will deal with her again on friday. Are you a PA,NP OR NURSE just curious. I may be wrong but thought you might be a PA. We talked before on bz.

          1. It is difficult to assess what another provider might instruct a patient to do. Everone has their own solution to the same problem. However, the purpose of the splint is to reduce swelling and keep immobile to allow the said inflammed hand to properly heal so that proper function can be fully restored. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to come in and out of the splint to allow for strengh restoration. Otherwise, if you remain in the splint for too long, it could cause deconditioning of the hand and ultimately PT will be necessary. You will not do any structural injury by coming out of the splint as long as you’re not doing anything demanding with it. Your physician may take you out of the splint permanently if he/she feels your hand is ready. However, he/she may also place your hand back in a splint or ace wrap for a few more days–but again, not a bad idea to start coming out of the splint and perhaps squeezing on a tennis ball to begin the restoration/conditioning process. Hope that helps!

            1. well I’m impressed with how well your question was answered – easy to understand and very thorough!

              And how are you feeling John?

  48. Hmmmm

    Is this the start of a trend? 2/5 OTS system is Now depicted as coming closer.
    Could this be the start of a trend?????

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F01%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. I am so sorry I included the loop. Here is the frame I meant:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120201%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_099_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=099&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F01%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=84&nextImage=yes

      1. Don’t apologize for the loop – I usually like to look at loops – gives me a better idea of what is happening. That’s just me. Also, I can stop it where I want to.

        1. I agree with rainshine – I can better understand when I watch the loop – nice to have it both ways – thanks OS

      1. John,

        I am not saying anything, just simply reporting some 12Z GFS model output for 2/5 that has shown a change from previous runs. Previous runs had that system totally out to sea. Now it has it quite a bit closer, in fact it brings some light snow to
        far Southern New England.

        So I wonder if this is a trend and something might still happen???

  49. I look at water temps around once or twice a month and if I’m reading this correctly water temps have come up 1 degree in last week to 42 degrees, is this right?

    1. Charlie, Not sure. I check it quite frequently as well, but don’t remember
      any 41 being reported, but I could have easily missed it.

    1. All season long, systems almost always trended farther North and West, except of course that system the previous weekend, that actually trended
      farther South and East. We’ll just have to wait and see.

      If you look at the 500MB vorticity chart for the day before, one wonders how this system would ever track South of us, yet it is depicted to do so.

      “Maybe” just maybe there is a chance. Probably not. We’ll see.

      1. It would be interesting to see if the 12Z Euro first even has this system and second has it moving closer???

        We shall see.

      2. OS, did u happen to catch the tail end of the 12Z GFS, for 2/16 – 2/17? Am I seeing that right, a 24+ hour duration mega storm??? (aka fantasy storm)

        1. I’ll be away then. I hope if that does happen and I have serious doubts it could be pushed to late Sunday night when I will be back home.

  51. I really like that the storm has gotten closer for 2/5. Maybe the data from the recon. flight has finally started to take effect? If that shift appears on the next couple of runs then we may have something, but since it’s such a different solution from previous runs (although more in line with what the GFS was offering earlier in the week) I’m not going to get too excited.

  52. I noticed that WW’s post from yesterday morning is back up! I have no idea as to why it was removed last evening but it is there if anyone here wants to read it (again). 🙂

    Up unti now I always assumed that once any online print was deleted, it was gone for good. At least we know that WW wasn’t banished from WBZ or anything. Of course, as I have been saying here a gazillion times now, I wish WW would post over here already!!

        1. John I don’t know if you saw my post yesterday but I haven’t seen coastal here at all so wonder if BM did reply to his email (I’m assuming you gave him his email) whether coastal has even seen it or replied

          I do have an email address I use that is not my regular address and not associated with my regular address. I would be happy to have anyone supply that but would need help with a way to determine if it’s the real person and not a troll

          1. I did Vicki I am sorry I did not respond I have not seen him here since last week when he was talking about his new truck. Lets see if he posts in the near future. Hold off on your email for now that was kind. But than again no surprise there because I think you are very kind. As far as the Bm post last week that he posted it was him both TK and I think anyways. He said he never saw any of the invites, that may be true as he is not an everyday blogger. I hope he will see the invite that I sent him. I keep checking to see if he blogs. Speaking for me I am going to give up on him real soon. He knows that an email from me was coming and I would bet anything he saw it. All I can say is to have him here would be just huge, WW as well. And just to be fair I just sent the invite last night, and we all seem to think that Bm post last night seems off.

            1. Vicki even if say Bm got on and was a troll, Tk would boot him right away. But Tk can think of a question to ask him and I think tell if it is him or not.

            2. let’s make sure coastal is checking his emails and sent the link to BM before giving up – just a suggestion. I do know that TK can ban a troll but didn’t know if there was anything up front you’d want me to ask or do if you use my email. Just let me know and I’ll post it here.

  53. Hi-I’m wondering how the ocean water temps currently compare to last year at this time and what impact this might have on the tropics? I believe last summer the ocean temps were fairly warm compared to normal, but could they be even warmer this year with the weather we have been experiencing this winter?

  54. It is 46 degrees in Sudbury now and rather dark out – low overcast with very light rain. Sorry, it doesn’t feel that mild to me out today. Kind of damp and raw.And I did go out. Unless if and when the sun comes out maybe it will get warmer. But in link below looks like some clearing out in Berkshires ’til some more clouds fill in.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html

    Doppler shows some showers out towards Albany – wonder if that’s the cold front. Any mild weather today looks short-lived.

    1. No warm weather around here anyway – haven’t seen any weather lately. Maybe it’s warmer to the west and south.

      1. phew – I thought it was just me or my thermometers – everyone was saying how warm it was yesterday and it wasn’t here

        1. It’s better, thanks. I still get “glitches” of pain now and then, but it hasn’t even been a week yet. I can get muscle pains and back-aches that last a few wks. I have always had muscle pains, since I was in high school. Have had doctors check me – nothing wrong. I guess it’s tension and that can make your back go out, too. When I was in college, in 1970, I went to school in Boston – right by the Charles River in the Back Bay. I used to get leg cramps a lot from the dampness. Now that I am older – ok – I am 60 yrs. old (now the world knows!) aches and pains come easier. Oh, well! My father had back problems – I guess I am inheriting that.

          Sun totally out in Sudbury now – last time I looked – 45 degrees.

          1. Emerson? Just a guess. I went to school on Marlboro Street and Arlington just a block from Charles – graduated 1969. And glad your back is improving

            1. Chandler School on Beacon St. 2 yr. secretarial school – graduated. could have gone to BU school of basic studies (I think that’s what it was). kinda wish I had gone there instead, ‘though I have great memories of my days at Chandler.

              1. our world gets smaller. I went to Katharine Gibbs (your neighbor sort of). I took their liberal arts program (also 2 years) and LOVED it. Wonderful memories. I had a very good friend who graduated high school with me who went to Chandler

  55. John – I hope your hand feels better soon. My husband takes Balsalazide for his Crohn’s. You used to take Asacol but that was getting too expensive. Did you say your wife was taking Crohn’s medicine w/iv? Is that Remicade, taken once a month?

    2. Sorry my post did not go through. Yes it is remicade she has had one dose, for now I think she goes every two weeks. I am fine thank’s. I hope your back is better. My wife has not heard about the medication your husband is on.

  57. Would the real BM please stand up! 🙂 I don’t think so. But if it was, look out for 2/8 -2/12! One thing that is for sure… BM’s predictions were right on more times than not.

    1. I’m with you on that shotime.

      TK mentioned those dates for something to watch and he very rarely will mention anything that far out unless it had real potential. Hmmmm….

    1. It’s crazy isn’t it Charlie?! 59 degrees up the road in Walpole. Went for a walk at lunchtime and it was on the cool/damp side. Now that the sun is peeking through it warms it up a few degrees. Crazy that a Feb. 1st sun could warm the air that much!

    1. Hey Retrac, why did you single me out for falling asleep?? Lol

      We’ll never see that this year!!

      Great video. By the way, it was blocked at work due to mp3 streaming.
      Of course, I have access to the blocking appliance/software and let myself view it.

        1. OS is right around my age – 29 and holding !!!! Well, maybe I moved to 39 and holding my last birthday. I loved the video – am so glad you posted it!

            1. I’m nearly 63 and I’m also wide awake – see how much more alert we are than the younger ones who admittedly (perhaps a slight exaggeration) fell asleep watching the video.

    2. awwwwww I was thinking that I didn’t mind if we went right to spring but now that I have seen the video I feel as if something really special is missing. I do miss just sitting in the window and watching the quiet beauty of a snow storm.

  62. Feels like April rather than February. I am not surprised the EURO has a miss for Sunday. I think the worst is it grazes the southern most portions of SNE.

  64. Two things. I was on the wbz site just now. Seems like the north is cold and south warm. The people on the northshore bashing all the mets because there not in the high temps. Second BM just posted on wbz and I am 100% certain it was a troll. I feel for the real BM because they have been doing this to him all year. Going out to the warmth sorry.

    1. Even at 4PM it was 59 at Logan. I am wondering if Logan officially hit
      60 at some point. Probably so.

  66. 18Z NAM. Chart of 1AM 2/5

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F01%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    Now look at the 500MB chart for the same time period. How does this system
    NOT get in here?

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F01%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    And look at the 300MB chart. I guess I would FLUNK Meteorology 101, because it
    sure looks to me as if something would make it in here!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F01%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=300_wnd_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    3. I wish I could read these better. I find them fascinating and keep staring at them but nothing clicks in my brain.

  67. Both NWS discussions from Boston and Upton, NY favor the EURO which if I read it correctly keeps us dry.

    1. Yes, 12Z Euro keeps us dry. HOWEVER, if the 12Z GFS and the
      18Z NAM and perhaps the 18Z GFS indicate otherwise, then what?

      he, he, he

  68. Old Salty you make a good point and you wonder is the EURO the outlier or will the other models come around to what the EURO is saying. I think at worst southern most areas get grazed by this but its Wednesday and still things could change. Its something to keep an eye on but this will not be a major event.

    1. Agreed, as currently depicted, doesn’t look like a very potent system. However, looking at the 500MB vorticity chart, one would think that
      it would be stronger than portrayed. So, I hold out a wee bit of hope that
      the system turns out to be a wee bit stronger than forecast.

  69. Old Salty I will take whatever snow we could get. I am rooting for The Farmers’ Almanac to be right on one or both the storms for this month. The one on the 8th-11th and 20th-23rd which a lot of people were pointing to when the 2012 edition came out in late August.

  70. Oh well, the 18Z DGEX (extension of NAM) still takes the system
    just South of NE, barely grazing Southern CT, but not RI or MA.

    But then, we’d like to see the NAM as it gets closer. This DGEX has not
    been all that reliable.

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