Monday March 28 2022 Forecast (7:20AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Upper level low pressure, a piece of “polar vortex” brings us a cold air mass to start out this week. Snow showers are ushering in the coldest air for parts of the region as we start the day today, and there may be a few additional snow flurries during the day as we see a gusty northwesterly wind, lots of clouds, limited sun, and high temperatures that will challenge record low maximum temperatures for the day. Surface high pressure will still be west of us on Tuesday, and with low pressure spinning over eastern Canada we’ll continue in a chilly northwesterly air flow, though it will be up a few to several degrees over today, and with more sunshine at a much higher sun angle in late March it will feel nicer despite the breeze and chill. High pressure moves over us Tuesday night which will be quite cold again as a clear sky and lighter wind allow good radiating. Clouds move in Wednesday ahead of a warm front from a low pressure system heading for the Great Lakes. Much like a system we saw recently, this broad low pressure circulation will move through the Northeast late this week. Precipitation generated by the approaching warm front can be in the form of snow and/or sleet Wednesday night as the atmosphere will still be cold. Eventually, the warm front should push through on Thursday, but the low’s cold front should not be that far behind and will bring rain showers as it moves in from the west later Thursday and Thursday night, into early Friday before it pushes offshore. But the air behind that front is not really going to be that cold initially, so Friday itself will be on the mild side to start April, with a sun / cloud mix and still a lingering rain shower possible.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, few intervals of sun. Snow showers with minor accumulation around early morning, especially southern NH / eastern MA, and a chance of a passing snow flurry at any other time during the day. Highs 29-36, coldest in the higher elevations southwestern NH / central MA. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 19-26. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially late-day. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)

High pressure builds in with fair weather but cooler for the April 2-3 weekend. We may have to watch for a disturbance with a period of precipitation on April 4 followed by dry weather April 5 then another precipitation threat at the end of the period, but confidence on that part of the forecast remains low.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)

Forecast confidence remains low heading toward mid April too, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring the early part of the period.

43 thoughts on “Monday March 28 2022 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  6. Thank you, TK!

    Sun is out in SE Sutton. I don’t know if we had flurries before 8:15. My eyes were closed. But I don’t see any sign of them.

  10. So, when we were in Tampa in February, the overhead sun was at 11 S Latitude. Today, it has moved north to 3 N Latitude, a gain of 14 degrees.

    Tampa is at 28N latitude and Boston, 42N latitude.

    Thus, the sun that I experienced in Tampa 4 weeks ago is now the same sun we have in southern New England today.

    The same Tampa sun cranked out 87F and the same equivalent Boston sun is good for 33F.

    33F !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Perfectly normal. Not average, but normal. There is a HUGE difference. When I say normal, I mean that it happens and it is not a rare event. If it doesn’t happen every year, it happens often enough that I would NOT call it a rare event. I can remember many occurrences going back to my childhood and that is a crap load of years. 🙂

      Just smile and wait a few days it the temp will top 60 again. 🙂

      1. I agree.

        Having lived here 50+ years, I should be tougher when it comes to the weather.

        I’m not. Its going the other way with each passing year.

        1. Funny, the older I get, the more I am able to roll with weather extremes. I used to get emotionally upset when it would rain in the Winter. Now, I shrug my shoulders and roll with it. Accept that there is nothing I can do about it. 🙂

          Now, If I were planning a round of golf today, I might be a little pissed off! But then again, I have played a full 18 holes of golf in 10 degree weather and didn’t bat an eye. No problem at all. 🙂 🙂

          Just remember, today there will be weather, whether you like it or not.

    2. Thanks Tom. Interesting how the models for what seems like weeks now continue to show widespread April snow, usually on just one model run per day then it disappears at the next. Still something to watch for sure. This is now the time of year that snow events don’t give even the best forecasters much lead time.

      If I recall, the 4/1/1997 event was forecasted a mere one day in advance. Of course the technology wasn’t as sophisticated as it is now.

      2. Spring snow events are almost never “seen” that far in advance. You have too many things that have to come together just so. The 1982 system was forecast a few days out, but that one was unique because of the magnitude of the cold. The 1997 event was forecast as a rain to snow event about 48-60 hours in advance, but nobody could have gotten the magnitude correct, especially the armchair “mets” who still continue to trash my profession at times for that one. Ignorance at its finest. Right, and all of them could have forecast the 30 inches I got down to the nearest 10th of an inch, 7 days in advance. Sure… 😉

        1. April 1st, 1997, I was working at a small biotech company in Kendall Square at the very end of my research days, and it was the early days of the web becoming useful. Todd Gross had started posting forecasts online and explaining the science of meteorology. In the days leading up to the storm, he talked about the difficulty in forecasting it on air. I would walk to a local diner for lunch that had a TV and catch the noon WHDH weather forecast whenever a storm was approaching.

          But in this case, he started updating the forecast for the storm online. Every hour or two on March 30th, the amount of snow forecasted for the area was updated to a higher amount, and by mid-afternoon, I knew that the next day would be a snow day. So I took care of things in the lab so there would be no issue the next day.

          This was the early days of my interest in weather forecasting and meteorology. That storm is most memorable to me as the first time a web page provided valuable, timely weather forecast information and explanations of the thinking behind the forecasts. Phrases like “the models don’t agree” suddenly became part of the lexicon, and being a weather forecaster started started to look like science. This was the beginning of a long enthusiasm for the science of meteorology.

          I even looked into taking meteorology classes, but it would have involved going to Lowell which wasn’t practical. Ironically, those classes are probably available online now. The next generation will have easier access.

          1. Amy, what awesome memories.

            I’ve said here a few times that I worked with closely with Todd on his spotter network and also created and managed his spotter website. We were his guests at one post at whdh. Another spotter…Tammy….and I helped him organize a spotter party in Natick. He was great to work with until he was let go. Then the proverbial you know what hit the fan. He did not go quietly and took out his anger on Pete and all of us who had worked closely with him.

        2. Someone must have forecast the 1997 in advance enough that We….parents of kids who had their horses boarded at a barn in holliston ……knew to Keep our kids out of school so they could get to the barn to exercise their horses (a daily routine) and make sure the horses were all set. We knew it might be days before we could get back. I’ve said before that I remember standing in the barn doorway when I saw the first flakes and hurrying the kids along so we could leave.

  15. I am not sure sun or rain or snow or hot or cold are there story. It’s the wind. It has been active for a long time.

  16. This will be the 3rd month in a row that I have chosen the coldest day of the week to go to Hampton to put my feet in the water. Hey, at least I’m CONSISTENT. 😉

  17. Impressive cold today, to be sure, given that it’s the 28th of March.

    But, when I hear people saying, as I did today at CVS “this is crazy, it should be warm by now” I REALLY wonder whether they’re from here or have short- and long-term memory loss. These interludes of cold and also raw weather happen almost every year. They also tend to be persistent, sometimes as late as early June (not the cold and snow part; but certainly the raw). It’s the way our climate in SNE works.

    1. “It should be warm by now.” Uh huh. Sure. In Georgia.
      As I always say, spring is colder than autumn. Not sure why people can’t grasp that concept.

    2. My girls often say it should be warm now. It doesn’t really mean they think climate wise. It just means they liked the warm weather we had and wish it were still here.

    3. How about just last year on Memorial Day weekend? In Lunenburg:

      May 29: High of 47
      May 30: High of 48 with rain

  19. From NWS Boston…

    Boston, MA: A record cold high temperature of 33°F was tied at Boston, MA. This ties the current record of 33°F set in 1893

    Providence, RI: A record cold high temperature of 34°F was tied at Providence, RI. This ties the current record of 34°F set in 1926

    Hartford, CT: A record cold high temperature of 31°F was set at Hartford, CT. This breaks the old record of 34°F set in 1966

    Worcester, MA: A record cold high temperature of 27°F was set at Worcester, MA. This breaks the old record of 28°F set in 1966

    1. Impressive numbers across the board. I’m in Back Bay. My thermometer hasn’t gone higher than 31.4F, so I’m a bit surprised at the Logan reading of 33F. Regardless, it’s been a nice wintry day.

    1. As long as Worcester didn’t get any measurable snow today. They did receive a “Trace” though.

      1. Have a gut feeling we’re not done with measurable snow. I’m not talking lots of snow. But I think there will be a few opportunities – mostly in the Central and Western parts of the state – for measurable snow. I think Worcester ekes out a win.

        By the way, my thermometer is already down to 29F. Boston could very well reach the teens overnight or in the wee hours of the 29th of March. Again, an impressive number for 3/29.

        Any mosquito or bee that `decided’ it’s safe to venture outside, say, 7 to 10 days ago, will not survive outdoors in these elements.

        The migratory birds will be fine. But, they’re probably `wondering’ why did we leave Costa Rica?

  21. If it is going to be this cold we may as well set some records for the record low high maximum and from what TK posted most of the reporting stations did set a record low high maximum. Both reporting sites in CT reported record low high maximums.

  22. The wind today went right through a person

    I joined my daughter this evening for a ride to Target for a pickup. I got into the car and she just stared at me. Finally, her comment was ….”you’re wearing a jacket????” It was light weight to be sure. But I didn’t wear a coat all winter. My only snow jacket has lived in my car’s trunk all winter and has not left.

    It has been this cold….but when the warmer weather is tossed in, it is more difficult to acclimate to than the consistently cold weather of winter. I figure if I notice the cold…my favorite weather….folks who do not care for cold are really impacted.

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