Thursday May 12 2022 Forecast (7:22AM)

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

Our blocking pattern is in the process of breaking down, and will do so as high pressure to the north weakens and sinks over our region while the upper low to the south drifts westward into the southeastern US. Eventually this low will open up and drift northward and merge with a trough moving eastward in a more west-to-east flow resuming across the eastern US. What does this all mean for our weather? Well, it means a pattern change of sorts, but our daily details over this 5 day period come down to what is going on at the surface. You’ve heard many comments now on the blog about being careful when you see certain numbers on the guidance and believing them too far in advance, because of known shortcomings in the guidance and the need for the application of meteorology itself as a bigger part of the forecasting process than just “seeing the numbers”. That’s the process I have been undertaking daily in trying to get these forecasts as accurate as possible. It doesn’t always work out, as we saw yesterday with the slower advance of the cloud-cover into locations north and west of Boston, while the South Shore, for example, got into the clouds and even some drizzle sooner. But the general idea was that clouds were going to take over, and finally during last night they had done that. We’ve finally moistened up the lower levels to get stratus clouds, and even areas of fog and patchy drizzle expanding somewhat inland. The exception as of the time of this writing is northwestern Worcester County of MA and adjacent southwestern NH which got to see the sun as it came up, since the cloud canopy fell short of reaching those areas. As we go through the day today, a modest easterly air flow will keep the clouds intact longest in the coastal plain while inland locations benefit from being further away from the maritime air source and a strong sun that will help erode the clouds and at least partially clear them. Some areas will break completely into sunshine as we get to midday and afternoon. As a result we’ll see a significant spread in temperature across the region, with coastal areas staying coolest and inland areas, especially valley locations well northwest of Boston, see the warmest air later today. Tonight, enough east to southeast flow and low level moisture spreads the stratus back across much of the region, and then we have to go through the process of breaking it up again tomorrow after sunrise and during the morning, but as the air flow turns a little more to the southeast and eventually south, we should see this breaking cloud and clearing process become a little more efficient, with the exception of Cape Cod and the South Coast, where the clouds may remain more stubborn. Again, we’ll have a temperature spread from coast to interior, not much unlike today’s, but perhaps a few degrees warmer overall. Friday night and Saturday we get enough surface high pressure to the southeast of us to shift the air flow around to the southwest, and that’s when more of the region is allowed to warm, especially during the day Saturday – a preview of summer for many as we reach or exceed 80, but there will be exceptions, and that will be anywhere that wind is coming off cooler water, especially the South Coast and Cape Cod, but also areas along the eastern coastline where the shape is irregular and wind has to blow over water before reaching there (Nahant, for example). Areas like that will be cooler as well on Saturday. A similar situation sets up for Sunday, but add in the chance for a few isolated afternoon showers – albeit a very slight one, and the flow may be a little more southerly so that may take the temperatures down a notch or two due to more direct influence of cooler water south of New England. When we get to Monday, the late spring / early summer feel will be in place still, but this time a cold front will be approaching and moving through from the west, with a greater chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, the coverage and strength dependent on a few things, especially the amount of sun and the timing of the front – to be fine-tuned as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Sunny northwestern Worcester County and nearby southwestern NH, otherwise cloudy with areas of fog and patches of drizzle this morning with a breaking of clouds to allow for partial sun, especially away from the coast, midday-afternoon. Highs 57-64 coastal plain, 65-72 interior. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Area of fog. Patchy drizzle, favoring the coast. Lows 50-57. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog and coastal drizzle to start, then clouds break for sun except South Coast which stays mostly cloudy. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland except 75-82 possible in some interior valley areas. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77 coastal plain except cooler South Coast, 78-85 inland with warmest in valley areas west and north of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers inland locations. Highs 75-82 inland, cooler coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. More humid. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

The large scale pattern should feature more zonal (west to east) flow, but with slow-moving features. Upper level low pressure crosses there region early in the period with a few diurnal showers likely generated May 17, followed by a drier west to northwest flow, fair and cooler weather May 18-19. We’ll have to watch for a frontal boundary in the vicinity later in the period bringing more cloudiness and eventually the potential for some rainfall, but the overall pattern looks quite dry so not looking for any big rain production from such a set-up at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

Similar caution to what was said for this period yesterday – leaning to progressive pattern but watching for blocking that the guidance won’t see. Initial idea is cooler start, warmer finish, and mostly dry weather with a minor disturbance or two bringing brief shower threats.

49 thoughts on “Thursday May 12 2022 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. 62 in SE Sutton and I can smell the dew point going up. Smells like summer and is finally safe enough to open doors and windows.

    Wind basically nonexistent and there is a solid, high cloud cover.

  2. Philip…
    Put away the winter clothes, snow removal equipment, and after a photo finish, declare Boston the winner by 0.4 inch over Worcester in the snowfall race! πŸ˜‰

    It must be the warm season, because social media pages are already hyping GFS tropical disturbances 14 days away, and Mass Live tweeted about the upcoming heatwave for the state…. Heatwave, with highs in the 80s (yeah, maybe some locations for 2 days, never mind that a heatwave is actually defined as 3 or more consecutive days with a high temp of 90 or higher).

        1. Sorry. That was tongue in cheek. I was thinking of sons wedding last august. Greylock would probably be lower.

          I’m finding two readings at 84. One of the sensors is the airfield which can easily have some influence by planes as we know. I checked with my son. He and his wife spend tons of time there. He wasn’t surprised. It’s a valley and can be warmer. But other areas out that way are warmer also.

          The NY MA VT border is a curious warm area. Hoosick Falls NY is reading 91

    1. Still chuckling at rainshine’s report Tuesday of negative-126 wind chill in Worcester. πŸ™‚

    2. Curious. It is the highest temp in NW MA but others are not far behind. Bennington VT is also reading 84.

    1. Its 54F in Marshfield, but with an almost similar dewpoint and the disk of the sun somewhat visible through the low clouds, it feels fairly mild.

      (we just had our cluster outside after Math MCAS)

      after the real cold, raw feel the past 5 days, today is manageable. We’ve graduated from mid March to mid April weather. Baby steps.

  3. 71 here in JP at the moment. Sensor is in the sun, so likely 68 or 69. Either way, not bad. I was just out. BEAUTIFUL!!!!!!!!
    Sun is BLAZING out there!

    1. Thanks! I am putting up the rest of my window screens today.
      I was going to mow the lawn this afternoon, until I realized I still have to bring the gas can to be filled, so I guess that waits until tomorrow now……..

  4. Cooling here in Woburn. Ocean breeze just picked up. You can see the cumulus clouds off to the west and north (though they are rather flat), but no cumulus nearby or overhead due to the stable ocean air. Very typical of springtime.

    You can see the center of that low to the south, now retrograding to the WSW, about to reach the South Carolina coast. Rex Block break-down in progress.

    1. Up to 80 here but there is a lovely breeze with a tad of a cooler feel running through the house. It is glorious. First time I can open windows this spring. Other warmer days I was afraid I’d cool the house too much for night

      1. This is that time of year where it can feel like summer for a few hours in the afternoon and then still get really chilly at night. That may happen tonight with light wind if it takes any time for the clouds to move back in. Enjoy the rest of the day!

        1. I have been worried about that but I can’t bring myself to close windows and doors

          1. It’s quite nice for now at least! At least if it does chill down tonight, it will be without wind. πŸ™‚

            1. Exactly. The house is tight and still warm. I have a zoom meeting starting soon so will sadly button the house up

    1. Models may under-forecast temps in some locations, but the atmosphere is not going to support “heat”, just a good warming away from any ocean’s influence.

  5. Short range guidance was right on the money keeping Logan under 60 today. High was 59, briefly.
    Tomorrow, I do think they reach 60+ at Logan, but they may fall back shortly after that…

  6. As God as my witness , when I got the breaking news and saw the photo of the Black Hole, I immediately saw an out-of-focus photo of a glazed doughnut. (Ask my freshmen in my last period class!!!)

    Great minds think alike:


    1. πŸ™
      Used to love listening to Gil & Gino calling the games on radio. They’re both gone now.

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