Wednesday August 24 2022 Forecast (7:40AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)

After 2 days of unsettled weather the WHW forecast area has ended up with a pretty uneven rainfall distribution, and there is no real surprise about that. This is the nature of convective precipitation, and in a case where some of it was very heavy and occurred over similar areas during 2 days, some amounts were very heavy, 5+ inches in some cases, while other areas came away with modest amounts of under 1 inch. So in spot locations, flooding aside, we’ve seen some solid drought relief. Unfortunately, it was not regionwide relief, so we will still find ourselves in drought in general, and will need several more good episodes of precipitation going forward to lift us out of this drought – something that, as previously stated – needs time. You don’t want it all at once as it often does lead to flooding issues and other problems. But we got what we got, where we got it, and now we move on… Fair weather and the feel of summer returns over the next couple days. Today it warms up and is still a little on the humid side to start with drier air to come later. We still have a fair amount of clouds around to start, but these will reduce. However the atmosphere remains just unstable enough that a pop up shower or two can’t be ruled out mainly across interior locations, favoring north of I-90, this afternoon. As high pressure gains control, Thursday ends up quite warm but even less humid. A weak warm front may send some cloudiness into the region later Thursday and cannot rule out a shower at night with the front, leading to a summery day on Friday in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. There’s still a few days to fine-tune the timing on that front but we will end up with a shower or thunderstorm threat from it, right now leaning toward late-day or evening/night and north and west of Boston, weakening as it pushes east and southeast through the early hours of Saturday, setting up what looks like a decent final weekend of August. High pressure’s position to our north would bring us somewhat cooler air and low humidity for Saturday then a slight up-tick in humidity as the high slides to a position east of New England by Sunday.

TODAY: Early to mid morning clouds dominate areas away from South Coast with more sun South Coast, then a sun/cloud mix with a slight chance of a pop up shower this afternoon interior locations. Highs 77-84. Dew point lowering from 60s to 50s. Wind variable to NW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun much of day, more clouds late. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible mainly well west and north of Boston. Lows 60-67. Dew point nearing 60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible evening, may linger near the South Coast overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s except 60+ South Coast. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Warm, some increase in humidity August 29-31, maybe a shower or thunderstorm with a frontal system around August 31. A shot of cooler air may be here in time to start September from Canadian high pressure.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

Early indications are for high pressure to dominate much of this period with dry weather, starting seasonable then warming up. Maybe a little unsettled weather during the cooler to warmer transition.

43 thoughts on “Wednesday August 24 2022 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  1. Repost from last night…

    We are 5 days away from breaking the record for the longest period of time without a named tropical system in the Atlantic. NOTE: Records go back to 1950 (72 years).

    Here is the list of the 5 least active periods as of today (August 23), courtesy a colleague of mine…

    1962 – 56 days
    2022 – 51 days (and counting)
    1994 – 43 days
    1991 – 42 days
    1997 – 40 days
    1961 – 40 days

    All of these years ended with a below or well below average number of storms, except for 1961, which had an extremely active end of August onward and finished above average. So it remains to be seen where 2022 finishes, but with only two current disturbances, both of which are rated with only a 20% chance of development during the next 5 days, it’s increasingly likely 2022 will move into first place on the list of longest period without a named storm.

    There is a long way to go in the season though. The climate peak is September 10, and the season runs until the end of November, so a lot can change between now and then.

    P.S. I wonder how long you can keep a jar of olives beyond its expiration date? 😉

  4. Thanks TK.

    Another pitiful rain total at Logan = 0.02

    We’ll try again Friday. Those futurecast locations the tv mets have been using lately have NOT been particularly accurate. If I recall, Boston yesterday was expected to be one of the “jackpot” locations, if anything.

    1. Btw, I am not blaming the tv mets so much as the futurecast technology itself. It needs much more work imo.

      1. Those are just models and the TV folks often remind viewers not to focus on the specifics, but the general idea.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Logan’s amount for yesterday – 0.02. – sounds right. I actually got less in Back Bay (0.0). Not expecting much from the next few threats, either. Just the way it is.

  13. Thanks, TK…

    2.56″ yesterday, the most here since the historical Northeast floods on September 1-2 of last year. (4.20″ at BOX)

    1. I do not recall any floods last year but I certainly won’t forget this summer. Worst one in history, setting records coast to coast.

      1. Can’t really blanket statement that.

        The Southwest is having some significant drought relief. There are other areas that have been quiet. And the tropical season so far, practically non existent. Keeping things in perspective is important.

  15. Eastern Australia is experiencing a late winter polar blast. Cold records have fallen. By the way, it’s been a terrific snow season in the Australian mountains. https://twitter.com/7NewsBrisbane/status/1562325069460033539

    Viktor Orban’s government in Hungary – the most authoritarian in all of EU – has fired Hungarian top meteorologists for inaccurate forecasts. https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/heads-hungary-weather-service-fired-wrong-forecast-88730687

    1. Lots of cold in the S HEM lately.

      I heard about the Hungarian met. A lot of people simply don’t get it.

      Stalin arrested and executed one of his meteorologists in the 1930s for talking about something that did not fit the narrative they were trying to push at the time. Drought related.

      1. Indeed, it reminded folks of Communist practices. Orban is certainly not a communist. He rebelled against the communists in the 1980s. But, in the past 15 years he’s become increasingly authoritarian, at times deploying tactics used by the communists prior to 1989.

    2. At the end of the article on Hungary:

      “The postponement of the fireworks came 16 years after a deadly St. Stephen’s Day event in 2006, when strong storms with wind gusts of up to 60 miles per hour (100 kilometers per hour) hit Budapest as around 1.5 million people had gathered to view the display.

      Five people were killed and more than 300 were injured amid the panic that ensued. ”

      You would think that this would lead to an understanding of erring on the side of caution.

  17. Latest NAM slows the end-of-week frontal passage to Saturday morning instead of late Friday.

      1. That’s entirely possible but it’s also possible that that solution is not quite right. It’s the model outside of its prime accuracy area. It forms a little wave on the front which delays the front. It’s possible that doesn’t happen at all…

    1. Haha no problem..

      Maybe we should have taken a photo of you up there first for a new profile picture. 😉

      2. I do have a plan b but this is a small celebration of my sister in laws life and ideally would be best held outdoors.

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