Friday November 18 2022 Forecast (7:46AM)

92 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Making a few minor tweaks but no major changes to the 5-day forecast, but the idea is generally the same – overall quiet (no big storms) and chilly. Some locations experienced graupel showers yesterday – always a little thrill to see precipitation that looks like tiny styrofoam balls bouncing around. None of that today though, just dry weather, sun and some clouds. A sunnier Saturday is in store, but a reinforcing cold front comes through Saturday night and early Sunday and may produce a quick snow shower in a few spots, otherwise we’re looking at dry weather through the weekend, colder on Sunday than Saturday, and additional dry, chilly weather as Canadian high pressure dominates early in the week.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A pre-dawn snow shower possible. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Maybe a passing snow flurry. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Thanksgiving is on November 24 and as we all know, the day before is where a lot of traveling takes place (that hasn’t already taken place), and the weather for both that day and most of the holiday look pretty decent. There are differences in model guidance ranging from “milder” to “reinforcing cold” coming in right there – and to be honest at this point I’m not sure, could go either way, but leaning toward a little bit of both, quick reinforcing shot of cold the day before, a cold start then moderating but some clouds arriving on the holiday itself. If you read the comments on this blog you’ve seen me talk about inconsistency in long range guidance making the forecast very difficult as far as using the guidance goes for the weekend “Black Friday” / Thanksgiving Weekend – whatever you like to call those days (haha). Right now I continue to lean toward an unsettled Friday (Nov 25) and a drier, chilly weekend, maybe a few snow showers here and there. Additional fine-tuning of this forecast is obviously needed…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Variable temperatures averaging near to below normal for this period. Continued inconsistency in medium range guidance but my overall idea is for the best shot of unsettled weather to be November 28 based pretty much entirely on what I think the medium range guidance is not “seeing” yet, and maybe a minor system to greet the new month on December 1 and/or 2.

92 thoughts on “Friday November 18 2022 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Lake effect band is crushing the Buffalo south towns this morning. Hamburg in Erie county is already up to 2 feet of snow.

    Snowfall reports thus far with plenty more to go:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    Downtown Buffalo has been relatively unscathed so far with the band setting up about a mile south. Here is the webcam that Dave posted yesterday. Looks like maybe 3 or 4” fell last night before the band settled south…

    https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-north-from-mr-pizza

    1. Thank you. I was surprised a bit when I opened the elmwood web cam earlier. But thanks to you and JPDs post below I understand. I do love both TKs forecasts and the discussion in this blog

  3. Reposting both Eric Fisher and Jeremy Reiner’s winter weather forecasts from last night for those who didn’t see them. Both going with another typical La Niña year and near to below normal snow. Eric going with 30-40” for Boston and JR going 40-50”

    https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/winter-weather-forecast-outlook-snow-predictions-boston-massachusetts-2022-2023-wbz-tv/

    https://twitter.com/jreineron7/status/1593389695890767872?s=46&t=VaF9eyIcx9N6uszvtY6YbA

  4. Thank you Mark.

    That Lake Erie snow band shifted North briefly last night bring Buffalo about 3-4 inches or so, but then shifted South again.
    South of the city, and entirely different story.

    1. Should shift back north today but I don’t think it’s going to be enough to get downtown Buffalo and the airport into any biblical snow totals.

  5. 6z GFS now has a showery and relatively mild Black Friday for much of New England with the primary storm tracking well to our west.

    0z Euro is similar but a slightly colder solution that would yield some up front snow and ice across at least NNE

  10. Thanks TK !

    Here are my snowfall guesses for this year (22-23).

    My guess is predicated on a consistent spreading of snow throughout astronomical winter. I don’t think it will be front-loaded.

    Logan: 66.3 inches
    Worcester: 81.4 inches
    Hartford: 58.3 inches
    Providence: 49.8 inches

    Meteorological winter temps: avg to 0.8F above average.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Tom I put your guess in the contest page but am not sure if we are keeping track of individual guesses this year. I may have missed that discussion

    1. And on the band on Lake Erie, where the clouds are forming, there’s upward motion. Of course, somewhere that air has to go back down and can see the clearing to the immediate north and south of the band where the air is sinking.

  13. Wouldn’t it be funny if Buffalo misses out on the real heavy snow and the Bills game could have been played at home after all. Is that a legitimate possibility? Oops!

    2. The game would have been in Orchard Park which is squarely in the middle of the band, even though nothing is happening in Buffalo. I think it was a wise decision.

  14. Vicki – looking at that cam I posted yesterday, I actually think it is positioned at the top of the M&T tower in downtown Buffalo which is why it hasnt been showing much. If It were in Orchard Park it would have pretty much been a white out.

    Philip, Orchard Park where the stadium is located (south of Buffalo) is getting crushed.

    1. Oh cool. Thank you. I’ll go find it.

      I sent Toms latest GOES post to my oldest granddaughter and the other webcam. But will send that to her too. She loves weather

  15. Thanks Vicki. So is this like Boston getting a few inches while Gillette in Foxboro getting clobbered?

    Amazing how many NFL teams have left downtowns. Patriots left Boston decades ago.

    1. Highmark Stadium is 9 miles south-southeast of downtown Buffalo. So, this would be like Boston getting a few inches and Quincy getting clobbered.

    1. The City of Orchard Park is, but the Stadium is on the northwestern edge of town, just off of I-90. I was there for a Pats/Bills game a few years ago.

    2. I suppose in a way that’s kind of like me driving up to Hampton Beach to put my feet in the water every month of the year (and of course last year when I got out of the water and walked barefoot into the snow on the beach). Oh don’t worry, it didn’t hurt – nothing hurts when you can’t feel anymore. 😉 BAHAHA

  28. Lake Effect Snow Blast going about as anticipated. Great forecast by NWS & locals out there. Insanely hard to pinpoint where those big amounts are going to be which would mean having, in some cases, to have the wind forecast right to within 1 or 2 degrees on a 360 degree spinny-doobie.

    I know I wrote my outlook only a few hours ago, but I’ll reiterate here that I’m happy with that forecast for now and after a view of available 12z guidance I won’t change a thing. Plenty to fine tune, obviously.

    P.S. alluding to my comment above, I’ll be heading to Hampton Beach to test the water with my feet on Monday November 21, also that will be the day (if I don’t get it done Sunday) that my winter outlook should be posted.

    1. NWS Buffalo in their forecast discussion the last two days thought the main snow band would end up a bit north of where it did and get more into Downtown Buffalo. Rationale was that thermal troughing would carry the band further north than modeled due to the record warm lake temps, like what happened in Nov. 2014. In the end it is looking like the HRRR is nailing the jackpot zone south of town and I would not be surprised to see that modeled 60-70″ bullseye verify in the Hamburg area.

  29. Much like my horror when I get stuck in a subsidence zone in between heavier banding in a Nor’easter, I would be LIVID if I lived in Downtown Buffalo right now watching feet pile up 2 miles south of me while I have flurries outside my window 🙂

    1. That’s where we differ. As much as I love snow I don’t have to be IN the jackpot area to be excited about the event. I mean, in this case, you could just get in the car and drive to the edge of the heavy band, and then back home later where you don’t have that much cleanup to do. 😉 Snow squall chasing.. HAH

      1. That’s the problem…I get too excited about the event and then anything less than the forecasted amount is gigantic letdown. Anything above it is downright euphoria 🙂

  30. More incredible videos from Western NY:

    Time lapse this morning looking south at the snow plume from Downtown Buffalo. Shows how NARROWLY Buffalo is escaping this:

    https://twitter.com/w_wdglma/status/1593623518159044609?s=20&t=aoeUJZtVXPVAPKQi4Ba2pQ

    Drone footage over Downtown Buffalo showing snow plume and thundersnow overnight:

    https://youtu.be/rsMMF8X3HS4

    Video walking through Hamburg NY as they approach 40″ of snow. You can get a sense of the depth at about 2:55 into the video. It is up to this guy’s waste.

    https://youtu.be/GmokNRsSttU

      1. John Smith kicked the winning field goal, as I recall. Smith was English. Advertised Weetabix (English product) on TV, if I remember correctly.

  32. Thank you, TK.

    My predictions (btw, Boston will get less snow this winter than Buffalo’s suburbs today and this weekend):

    Logan: 30.3 inches
    Worcester: 51.7 inches
    Hartford: 42.3 inches
    Providence: 26.7 inches

    Meteorological winter temps: 1.2F above average

    1. I like it Joshua but I’m hoping it’s much lower for Boston , hope all is well ! As of now I am opting out of snow removal this year .

      1. That is truly insane.

        And also shows that removing every six hours gives a more accurate read.

        My granddaughter is jealous. Me too

  35. Looks like the big lake effect snows back off tonight.
    Back in play later tomorrow or so it looks. We shall see.

    1. Is it typical for lake effect snows to diminish once the sun goes down much like summertime pop-up thunderstorms? Are these snows triggered by instability as well as the wind direction?

      1. Those are great questions.
        The general answer is no for the most part regarding day vs. night. If anything, one could argue that it could intensify at night because the air could be even colder moving over the lake which would have very little temperature change since water temperature changes lag the general trend in air temp. This contrast is going to create its own form of instability, so that means that the answer to your second question is both yes and no, depending on the type of instability we’re talking about. There is an unstable lower atmosphere created by the cold air blowing over the warm water, which is analagous to cold air aloft with warm air at the surface, just much more shallow.

  36. The latest CPC long-lead shows something I haven’t seen for years.

    By the time we get to late 2023 (late autumn & winter), they have removed nearly all of the “above normal temps” from most of the country in favor of “equal chances”. I can’t remember the last time I saw that little red on those maps.

  37. I’ve seen some headlines about the lake-effect snows that use the word “storm.” Is this really a storm? As a non-met, the current situation in western NY is not what I think of as a storm. I may certainly be wrong.

    1. One grand just asked if we can have a storm like that and I hesitated for the Same reason. Not could we have one but is it a storm

    2. It’s not a “storm” in the classic sense (passing low pressure with a precipitation shield). It’s caused by gradient wind, which obviously in this case needs a storm somewhere and high pressure somewhere to create the gradient. While it has the same impact in the areas it hits as a winter storm does, the process makes it in a different class. Same thing with ocean effect snow here, which often is caused by high pressure to the north with a northeast or east wind off the water with cold air present, and can occur with no low pressure area that close by.

      1. Are you saying that the lake effect snows need low pressure somewhere in the vicinity but our ocean effect snows only require high pressure to our north?

        If that is correct then is there low pressure currently in the vicinity of Buffalo and the immediate area?

        1. No, it’s not a necessity, but in that case it’s usually somewhere enough to cause the gradient wind that ends up causing the snow showers. It can be hundreds of miles away, even a thousand miles away. The snow is not coming from the low itself, in the way we typically think of low pressure producing precipitation. Just as you need low pressure “somewhere” to create the gradient wind, you need high pressure “somewhere” too. But they can be so far away that they are generally not thought of as being “the” cause, just part of the atmospheric set-up that causes it to happen.

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