After 11 months of above normal temperatures in Boston (January-November), making 2010 Boston’s warmest year on record, it appears we have reversed the trend. December 2010 was the only month of the year to average colder than normal, and thanks to a major snowstorm on December 26-27, snowfall for the month ended up above normal.
Looking ahead into the first couple weeks of the New Year, January 2011, despite starting with a mild New Year’s Weekend, is heading into colder territory once again. All the best indicators point to below normal temperatures during the next 10 days to 2 weeks. This is the result of a blocking pattern continuing to be the dominant force in driving our weather here. To refresh, this blocking pattern features a stubborn area of high pressure over Greenland, occasionally expanding into northeastern and east central Canada. This blocks cold air crossing Canada from moving eastward, and forces it southward into the US. In response to the high pressure area to the north, a low pressure trough is carved out over the eastern US, and though it oscillates and occasionally lifts out, its dominance is responsible for the chilly & sometimes stormy weather that the East Coast states have been enduring.
It appears that this general pattern is not about to go anywhere, and can be expected into the middle of January. This should also result in a few more winter storm threats during the next couple of weeks. The next threat in the pipeline comes to our area by the end of this week, when there is some significant potential for accumulating snow. With a few days to go before this potential event, the best guess on a timeframe for a snow threat will be later Friday & Saturday. Computer models continue to show several possible scenarios, as is expected when the threat is still several days away. There are indications that whatever storm does evolve may be slow-moving for a time, making the potential significant for a longer-lasting event. This will be fine-tuned over the next few days and you can follow the developments in future blog entries.
In the shorter term, after a bright & chilly Monday, expected a slightly milder but also somewhat cloudier Tuesday, a result of milder air moving in mainly aloft. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night & early Wednesday, and may produce a few snow showers as colder air gets reinforced for midweek. This will set the stage for the potential late week winter storm.
Happy New Year to all of you!