We continue to be in a complex weather pattern thanks to continued blocking. The computer models continue to have their issues resolving events in this weather pattern. What started out looking like something that may have been similar to the recent snowstorm has evolved into looking like something far less impressive as the model runs have gone by.

This still is a fascinating setup, from a meteorological perspective, however, as we’ll be watching several areas of low pressure and a trough connecting 2 of the main low pressure areas (a norlun trough) all producing areas of snow that will be around the area Friday through early Sunday. Even with this complexity, when it comes right down to the details of what you see, it may be that any given area  just sees a few periods of snow over this time, not amounting to all that much.

Complex pattern … Simple result? That’s weather.

Breaking it all down, the best guess as to what is going to happen in the Boston Area and southern NH is that elements of ocean-effect snow will break out mainly from Boston north during the day Friday, with some accumulation most likely in the North Shore area of MA westward across the MA/NH border. Another area of snow, associated with the trough  mentioned above, will be lifting slowly northeastward into southwestern New England, but may be weakening as it finally reaches eastern MA at night. Some accumulation is still possible from this area of snow. Finally, one of the low pressure areas offshore may intensify enough to throw yet another area of snow into parts of eastern MA, this one favoring the Boston area southward, during Saturday night. After all of this, a generalized 1 to 4 inches of snow can be expected, none of it coming too quickly, and none of it accompained by strong winds or anything similar to the recent storm.

I will watch the evolution of all of this and update by late Friday.