The Week Ahead

121 Comments

6:56PM

Several days ago when it was apparent the cold pattern was coming back, I stated that the cold for this coming week was a certainty, and the snow threats were somewhat uncertain. It’s funny that it hasn’t changed all that much, with still some uncertainty on snow threats. It’s pretty certain that the first threat for the early hours of Monday will be insignificant with only some rain showers changing to snow showers mainly south of the Mass Pike with a coating of snow in some locations possibly causing brief slippery conditions. This is being caused by a cold front and a weak wave of low pressure riding along it. The front is introducing the first shot of cold air as the pattern returns to one we’ve seen a few times this winter. The second shot of snow comes Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and there is some uncertainty on this still, but I’m leaning toward the low pressure area moving rather quickly and a little further out to sea than what would be needed for a significant snowfall, resulting in a light snowfall for parts of southeastern New England. This system will intensify as it moves well east of the region and help to pull down even colder air for the second half of the week, though fair weather is expected Thursday and Friday. Next weekend looks like it carries a storm threat and a push of still colder air, but it’s too far away for details.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain showers changing to snow showers mainly near and south of the Mass Pike after midnight with a few light snow showers elsewhere. Coatings of accumulation possible mainly south of the Mass Pike. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-20. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or snow showers in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon. Lows 12-20. Highs 22-30.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 6-14. Highs 20-28.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-8. Highs 18-26.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 10-18. Highs 22-30.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-8. Highs 18-26.

121 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Reading that as of a few days ago, Feb. 19th, based on a NASA Satellite, 88% of the Great Lakes are ice covered. Looking at the weather this coming week, that percentage could go higher.

      1. Yeah back when the coming ice age was the threat…now its global warming..err…climate change 🙂

        1. I remember they used to scare us with the ice age talk, then suddenly it flipped to warming and a flooded coastal plain. There was one public service announcement that I believe was locally produced that said Boston would be underwater by 2010. Still waiting…

          That said, I agree with Vicki’s ideas/opinion and say that we should not bother wasting time arguing and just be proactive in taking care of the only planet we can call home. As much as we like to think of ourselves as separate from it, we indeed ARE part of the mechanism.

    2. My son sent me a great pic today of the breaks in the ice on Lake Michigan, due to the recent “short-lived” warm up! The size of the ice chunks are quite impressive!

  4. This Friday is the spring training opener for the Sox, and it’s the 2nd day of the NFL Combine … seems hard to believe.

  6. Charlie, I have a 36″ walk behind with grass catcher. New in 2012 and probably has 30 hours on it. Where is a good place to sell it? Ad in paper or through craigslist?

  7. Thanks TK!
    I wonder if we might break some temp records when that 2nd batch of cold air gets in here! What will that be – Polar Vortex 4? Ha 🙂

  11. TK,

    Thanks for all you do.

    I just want to say I love winter and the snow but I’m now looking forward to the Spring and some warmer days. Do you see any warmth coming at all? I realize the next 7-10 days look real cold but when do you see a potential warm up (like the 40’s or higher).

    Thanks again,
    TJ

    1. At the moment I can’t find any significant warm-up. Looks cold into mid March.

      Thanks for being part of the blog. 🙂

    2. Totally TJ, everyone wants spring, I concur, my kids r ready to go nuts along with most new England’s, spring,spring,spring 🙂

      1. I could do with out spring…. freakin allergies, usually wet and honestly call spring the first mud season. what people call spring usually does not happen till late april/may

  12. Boston records for the first 10 days of March.

    Date High Max Low Min Low Max High Min High Pcpn High Snow
    1 63 1991 -1 1886 12 1886 45 1902 1.72 1987 5.0 1963*
    2 65 1991 0 1886 18 1891 49 1991 2.24 1983 7.0 1916
    3 61 1945 4 1950 16 1950 44 1921 1.95 1972 8.3 1960
    4 70 1974 2 1950 21 1896 44 1880 2.64 1881 12.0 1891
    5 72 1880. -4 1872 20 1948 45 1979* 1.28 1952 8.7 1993
    6 70 1894 -8 1872 9 1872 47 1979 2.15 1943 6.2 2001
    7 69 1946 2 1872 22 1913 47 1894 1.91 1967 9.9 1967
    8 67 1995 7 1986 24 1989* 42 1995 1.85 1933 8.0 1941
    9 72 2000 8 1943 24 1984 52 1921 2.14 1998 4.5 1939
    10 71 1878 6 1984 25 1984 45 1977 2.14 1881 4.2 1918

      1. I could see a couple of these going down.

        TJ I am with ya!! Love my snow but after the last two days I dream of warmer days ahead!!

  15. Good morning, lots of meetings, heading into the office before 6am, this is the very 1st sign of spring, don’t forget spring ahead in 12 days 🙂

  16. Thanks Tk and good morning….

    Other than some cold weather on the way, as of this moment, it “appears” that all
    of the SNOW threats have gone POOF in the night. I don’t count a bit of light snow
    as a snow threat. I see virtually nothing for Wednesday, perhaps a coating to an
    inch. The infamous on again off again system for 3/2 is gone as is the 3/4 system.
    Beyond that is so far out, why bother looking.

    To be fair the 3/4 event “could” still happen as there are a few mixed signals, but
    the EURO has it WAY out to sea and the GFS hasn’t a clue what to do with it.
    I can’t even find a “fantasy” event on the maps. 😀

    Odds favor a non-event at this time.

    If it’s not going to snow, Canada can take it’s PV and cold air back!! They can have it!

    What a couple of absolutely beautiful days. 😀 😀

    1. From Taunton NWS re: Wednesday

      HOWEVER APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL
      LIFT TO INDUCE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS TO GENERATE A FEW TENTHS OF QPF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF A FEW FLUFFY INCHES OF SNOW…WITH HIGHEST RISK OVER SOUTHEAST MA.

      Sure and the Easter Bunny is coming. 😀

  18. Mornin! Well the air this morning didn’t feel terribly cold but it looks like we already hit the high for the day.

  19. Charlie, I gotta admit, i was getting nervous this past weekend, the snow melted a lot quicker than i thought but my back yard still has a snow pack 😀 Not sure u would call it a pack, more like a coating, lol. Down to about 4” in most spots from a high of 20″ just a week ago. Meant to post pics yesterday but it was a crazy weekend. Will post when i can.

    1. Agree. Much milder than expected, especially yesterday.
      Snow took a HUGE hit. I didn’t measure at home, but we’re down
      to “about” 6 inches or perhaps even somewhat less. Beginning to
      get thin.

      Prospects for more don’t look especially good right now. Perhaps subject to
      change???? 😀 😀

      1. 12Z NAM is absolutely LAUGHABLE regarding Wednesday.
        No Signs of the “Forlorn” trough. 😀 😀 😀

  20. I will be very disappointed if we dont get any substantial snow out of this cold spell. I’ll take a couple inches of fluff just to coat the dirty snowbanks, but that’s just bonus.

    1. Looking at this pattern and reading the NWS write up, one would think
      that before the cold is gone, we should get hammered with at least
      one significant snow event. But, you know what? It doesn’t have to
      happen.

      We shall see.

  21. I feel like wednesday would be our best chance at some snow, but its not looking good at the moment. Usually, our biggest snows happen during transition periods in patterns and wed would be the transition from seasonably cold to very cold. Once we’re in the very cold pattern after that, suppression of storms becomes even more pronounced and less likely to get something big until the pattern starts to break down again.

    1. Agree. Weds might produce something for the Cape, and I am thinking the cold air shooting down will push any weekend storms out to the fish.

  22. We will get snow in the next couple weeks. Very cold, pretty active pattern and with it will come snow chances. The models this far out are going to keep showing storms, taking them away, bringing them back…. The pieces of energy responsible for these storm chances are way out in the Arctic or in the middle of the Pacific in data starved areas. If any of these bundles of energy emerges a little faster or slower, or a little stronger than currently estimated, it makes a huge difference in the model outcome as far as east coast storm chances, potential for phasing, etc. I’d rather the models not be showing big hits 5-10 days out as that is usually the kiss of death. How many of our recent snow events this month were modeled correctly this far in advance? I would venture not one of them!

    1. The record this year has been pretty poor. The models couldn’t even
      get some of them correct the day before, so how are they going to get
      something correct 5-10 days in advance? Chances are pretty slim.

      Some things in favor of a significant snow event eventually:

      1. Ample cold air compliments of the PV.
      2. Constant parade of Northern Stream short waves rotating around
      the base of the PV.
      3. It now looks like the pineapple express is open for business opening up
      an active Southern Stream.

      So, we “could” catch a Northern Stream short wave igniting a coastal with
      enough amplification to bring it up the coast.
      We could catch some phasing between the 2 streams igniting a monster
      on the coast.
      OR, NONE of the above happens and we just FREEZE TO death.

      😆

  23. Totally agree OS. And Ace, I agree with your comments on suppression but how often has that rule really come into fruition this winter? Some of the time it has, but we have also had many storms that looked like they were going to go out to sea only to have them turn up the coast and come closer. All depends on the position of the PV and timing/strength of each piece of energy. PV is not going to remain stationary – it will wobble east and west and relax a bit at times over the next couple weeks. That gives these storms an avenue to come closer.

    1. True, however, each day I take a look at the models “hoping” that one
      of the situations we describe actually looks like it will occur. NOPE.

      Have to get in the mode of it will be what it will be.
      Or as BB says: “It is what it is”.

      Or as I like to say: “There will be weather, whether we like it or not”

    2. Very true Mark, we have had a couple storms pop up out of nowhere in this pattern and at the last minute turn up the coast, but I feel like those have been minor to moderate at best and need almost perfect conditions to do so. These types of storms have not produced the widespread nor’easter type snows, but rather very localized situations where a couple areas get dumped on but most don’t get much. These were storms from earlier in the winter when we were having some brutal cold days and nights. I see similarities in this pattern setting up.

  26. Beautiful morning. I love the air when it is crisp. It’s 34.5 here with wind gusting well into the teens. Some clouds moving in from the west.

  27. Patience all. Snow events will happen but it is going to be one of those instances where it doesn’t appear on the models until the short or mid range time period before the event. I would argue the pattern and set up this March for snow chances is better than we have seen in recent memory. It is not too often you have this much cold air to work with this late in the season. Not saying these chances will turn into mega nor’easters but the pattern is good for more accumulating snowfalls and I wouldn’t discount one big one. We shall see 🙂

  28. 12z GFS has some light snow for the weekend with a northern stream low.

    The 3/4 system looks loaded. With PV retreating a bit during this time period, this is going to be a time frame to watch.

    2. I remain pessimistic but still hopeful for something. We first uttered those words, “time frame to watch,” for 2/26, then it was 3/1, now its 3/4. Sensing a trend….

  29. Nice weather today. It’s a treat to see that the Charles is still mostly frozen, and that will continue into early March. That doesn’t happen every year.

    We will get surprised by some kind of moderate snow event during the coming 10 day period. No guarantees, of course. But, my sense is that something will sneakily surprise us all.

    By the way, mountains are getting some snow today and tomorrow, mostly the west-facing sides of mountains. Good for the ski areas.

  30. Still solid 9 inches of snow here. Only place I see any ground is along south side of house over the bluestone walkway which was cleared for the most part. And even that remains somewhat covered.

  31. Ugh, facebook weather pages lighting up about a storm first week in March. That about guarantees it won’t happen! One page even goes as far as says…

    “A robust storm system is set to impact over 100 million people with heavy snow, heavy ice, severe weather and flooding around the first week of March…”

    Explain something to me, how is that even close to being “set!?!?!” This is something u say when it is eminent or an absolute certainty it will happen. I have no issue with a discussion on potential, but my issue is the language some of these sites use. It’s downright irresponsible.

  32. I don’t feel we see ANYTHING until the PV begins its retreat. And even then, the timing will have to be just right. Hopefully towards the end of the active period (3/4) we can squeeze a little excitement in!

    1. Agreed. Also agree with ur comment on timing being right. Too much retreat and we get an all out rain storm. Not enough and we get nada. Like threading a needle.

  33. Yessir!

    I know I’m channeling Charlie here….but MAN this weekend was nice. I’m ready to go have a mint julep on a rooftop bar.

    How about ONE MORE giant snowstorm, that melts the following day. Fair enough? 😉

    1. Models are ALL over the map (pun intended!).

      Geez there is NO consistency or agreement. It’s like pure randomness.

      They haven’t a clue how to handle this set up.

      Like others have said, it may just sneak up on us, OR it may not happen
      at all.

      I would have liked the Euro to be in somewhat agreement with the GFS. NOT
      so at all. And the Canadian>>>> It hasn’t a clue either.

      What a revoltin’ development this is!

  36. Everyone should try a little patience. We’ve got the cold air in place. Now, all we need is a surprise system to develop, one the models aren’t seeing right now but may soon.

  37. Euro is a hit for 3/4. Not too dissimilar from the GFS but a little further north. Looks like southern areas would mix verbatim.

    Got a look at the GFS ensembles as well and 11 of 12 members have this storm. 10 of the 12 impact us in some way. Actually surprising to see such model agreement this far out.

    This system has the looks of that early February storm that came in from the Ohio Valley and gave us the front end dump of 8-10″ before some mixing. It was not a classic nor’easter. We’ll see – plenty of time to track this. In the meantime, the Wednesday and Saturday systems look like they are on life support.

  38. I think I am going to start my own weather face book page. I am going to call it WEATHER DISASTER CENTRAL. All I am going to do is post about storms a month I advanced. I will have head line that read. Life and Property threating Storm”. “Cold Snap that will kill you even when your in your house”. Or ” The big one is coming WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE”. How many followers do you think I will get ??

    1. I never heard of the site, but went to it today. Someone on the comments more or less said we can’t criticize the page becuase it’s run by a 16 year old kid. Not sure how that makes sense.

      Reminds me of a story from the UK…

      In some schools, to not hurt the feelings of “bad students”, teahers were told to not use the word “fail”…but instead use “deferred success.” With that upbringing, you can expect a lot of “deferred employment.” Point is…criticism – when done correctly – can help you.

      2. Again we go to extremes to undo the harm that previous methods (also extremes) did. We are going back to the middle of the road now I think

  42. We just had snow shower here in lowell and ut was sunny at same time. First time I saw that with snow. The clouds looked like a typical “sunshower” We have in the summer 🙂

    2. Decent flurries and squall in Chelmsford, too! Was snowing so hard it looked foggy outside. Loved it! Now, the sun is back out and I can’t stop looking at the radar to try and guess when and from what echo we might get more from 🙂

  44. Taunton:

    DECENT SIGNAL FROM GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES FOR A STORM SYSTEM
    APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ITS A WEEK OUT SO CONFIDENCE OF
    COURSE IS LOW…BUT LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT A SIGNIFICANT
    PRECIPITATION EVENT. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIR IN PLACE…IF IT
    PANS OUT WE WOULD EXPECT SNOW AT LEAST AT THE ONSET FOR EVEN MUCH OF
    THE COASTAL PLAIN. SOMETHING CERTAINLY TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE
    NEXT FEW DAYS.

    1. Just signed up for the free trial. It took 60 seconds and all they ask for is your email, and a user name/password to set up. No payment info.

      Lots of cool maps. OS, you would really enjoy this. Only bummer is you cannot get text output by City.

      Total snow accumulation for the 12z Euro run is 12″+ NW of a Hartford-Boston line trending up to 2 feet in VT and Upstate NY. 6″+ away from the immediate south coast of MA and RI. Most of the snow from that run in SNE falls from the 3/3-3/4 storm which starts by the way early on Monday 3/3 and is a fairly long duration event.

      Euro has another juicy storm on its heels on 3/6 but it misses just south of us.

  46. It seems all the TV mets and NWS are already bullish on next Monday (and Tuesday?). Usually only the rainstorms are set in stone 6-7 days out.

    TK – Are you joining in on this also? Or will this disappear/OTS in a few days?

  47. Philip, I am not forecasting an OTS but certainly the cold shot from Canada is pushing things south and out … need the cold air to pull back just a little.

  49. You know its bad when DT on wxrisk pokes fun of your mass hysteria post to your facebook page. They messed up big time. Even DT hasnt mentioned the 3/4 potential.

    1. DT alluded to the pattern supporting something happening around then, but not in an alarmist way.

  50. Big storm unlikely to happen next week. Its rare to have a big storm forecasted a week or more out and it pans out. I hope we get one good snowstorm with this cold otherwise its wasted cold air.

    1. JJ not weather related but did you watch the PGA tournament this past weekend. Mac got a huge kick out of watching the man from France.

  51. Sorry, busy day…

    I saw the post by the site about the huge storm threat. It’s ok to talk about things in advance but it’s wise to think about how something is worded. If you do comment there though you run high risk of being told to “put a sock in it” (direct quote) by a supporting ‘professional’ meteorologist (not the kid that runs the site). Does that seem professional to you?

    Anyway that’s all I’ll say about that right now.

    ….

    As for the storm threats: Not much going to happen Wed, minor threat for Saturday, significant threat does indeed exist early next week but far from a certainty. I just see that period of time as the greatest potential for things to come together. Favor slightly later timing though, this far in advance, and lean toward a potential Tuesday event (which is at the very end of the February 28 – March 4 window we’ve been eyeing for a while).

      1. Hi Vicki… I did watch the match play championship yesterday. Those were some amazing shots Victor Dubuissian
        pulled off in the playoff to extend it. It was a shame someone had to lose but I am happy Jason Day won.

    3. Wonder if TWC will have any names left for the storms in early March. They could start naming them after their on camera Mets…..

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