Weekend Update

473 Comments

9:59AM

A cold front will sweep across the region from west to east today as low pressure passes north of the region. A line of rain showers will accompany this front as it cuts into briefly milder air over the region, replacing it with a new surge of cold that will be felt somewhat modestly at first tonight and Sunday, then more boldly Sunday night and Monday as a surge of true Arctic air arrives. Strong March sunshine Monday will make it feel a little less cold than it would have in the days of lower sun angle. The time frame of Tuesday night and Wednesday continues to be the focus point for a Winter storm (yes I know it’s Spring). There is pretty much no doubt that a monster storm will be forming off the East Coast. What is yet to be worked out is the details of the rate of intensification and the storm track, which will make all the difference in the world here regarding impact of snow and wind. So instead of outline the various scenarios (you’ve seen them a hundred times on TV anyway), just remain aware that a significant winter storm is possible during this time. I will get a little more detailed on tomorrow’s blog post about what I expect to happen. But as a heads up, it’s safe to prepare for plowable snow in most of southeastern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday. After the storm threat, the end of next week looks milder.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers through mid afternoon from west to east. Highs around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH, shifting to W, with gusts up to 30 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty early, diminishing late.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow likely at night. Low 10. High 30.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow and wind likely. Low 20. High 30.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 55.

473 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  7. I hope it goes out to sea…there will be destruction if it gets too close with the winds that are associated with it. Waves could also huge. Hopefully boats, etc. get to a safe spot while this passes by regardless of how close it is.

    1. I can’t wait to see the satellite image of this storm should it live up to its full potential.
      A benchmark storm not only the snow will be an issue but wind gusts and power issues.

  10. Don’t let out to sea fool you. Its a large system and I would be surprised if there were no impacts at all in SNE. Less than a 100 mile shift to the west and its a whole new ball game.

    1. That is one heck of a storm though.

      I still only give us a 10-20% chance of a direct hit. I’m still going to be PISSED though if I’m right. To have a storm like that so close and…..arghhhhhh.

  13. Just now hitting 50 degrees. Winds picking up big time making it feel much cooler though. Cold front a couple hours away will drop the temps, looks like we’ve peaked. Expected temps well into the 50s today, but it doesnt look like that will happen. More sun than i expected though which is a plus.

      1. Haha, sorry, I got a little Charlie in me there for a minute πŸ™‚ I remember him saying it will hit 60 in some locales today

  14. A 10F rise from 11am to noon at most eastern Mass stations.

    That small shower line has held together fairly well and is now in west-central Mass,

  15. Joe B is in board for a west correction by tomorrow. No confluent flow ahead of storm should bring it west in his opinion.

    2. From where it begins to intensify off the NC coast, it almost has to retrograde or go due north from there to be in that position. Thats very rare but can happen.

  20. Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahn of WVIT here in CT most likely scenario glancing blow but to early to say for sure. Big Hit and total miss still possible though less likely

  21. The wind down here is roaring but warm day out there. Started raking with jacket on but had to take it off.

  22. 12Z GFS still pretty far off shore. Snow down a bit more still.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014032212&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=093

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=093&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_093_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140322+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    976MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032212&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=111

    2. I wasnt all that impressed with that run. Showing about as much snow as oz euro. Curious to see what the euro throws our way.

  23. Having a great day at killington so far. We had an absolute whiteout/blizzard conditions for about an hour this morning with a quick couple inches of snow. About two feet natural base on the ground – would not know it is spring here! Mountain is 100% open and there is great cover in the glades.

  26. Many parts of Maine getting snow today. Not a lot, but 6 inches in spots, and a widespread 3 to 4 inches in many areas. It’s also below freezing in most of Maine currently. Their snow-pack, which is growing steadily, will be there for quite some time.

    More blah weather today in Boston. Yeah, it says 54, but does it feel or look like 54? No. Ice has almost completely melted on the Charles in Boston, except the interior, narrow waterways, near the Esplanade Park. Don’t think there will be ice on the Charles in early April. Possibly after this week’s cold burst, but my guess is the melt late next week will get rid of all the ice and snow remnants, even if it snows on Wednesday. Still, it’s very late in the season to have any ice at all on the Charles.

    1. Brilliant sun very soon in Boston area. A little later SE MA because showers still have to go through there.

      1. Aw crap, nevermind, i spoke too soon. It looked a lot less benign than it actually is. That’s a good 8-10″ on that run, 40+ mph sustained winds along the outer cape

  33. I could be wrong, but it doesnt look like the low pressure center is any closer on the euro, but the precip shield is further west and its a little slower

  37. One thjng I have notice on all the runs….the storm weakens just a bit after crossing
    our latitude. meaning it is at it’s absolute strongest near us!!!
    Models range from 954 mb to 974 mb.

    1. JMA said no 15 or 20:1 ratios.

      !0:1 should be no problem. I’m guessing
      between 12:1 and 15:1, probably close to 12:1. Just my educated guess. πŸ˜€

  41. From DT at Wxrisk.com:

    However once the LOW reaches the latitude of Cape Hatteras it turns north as it phases with the northern branch of the Jetstream and the LOW tracks almost due North or perhaps NNE passing just to the south and east of Cape Cod Massachusetts on the 26th. The phasing of the two streams allows the LOW pressure area to explode with sudden intensification .

  45. Is it just I, OR is this system not showing as much Precip to the NW of center as many
    Winter storms do????

      2. Id’ say pecentage now:

        25% direct hit
        50% graze or sideswipe
        25% Totally OTS

        Perhaps even a bit higher for sideswipe.

            1. Direct in my book is that the storm passes close enough to produce 6+ over at least 75% of the region (southeastern New England) and strong winds for most, especially coastal areas.

              A direct hit as in the storm center coming over land would be a real mess, in many ways, and is not going to occur anyway. πŸ™‚

              1. Thanks TK. That makes me feel better. Some snow ….great. Damaging system….just don’t need it. Whatever happens…I know I’ll love watching. Thanks for your insight!

  46. The surface low center being offshore a bit more than the “classic” position will likely still mean significant snow for most of eastern MA.

    -Strong inverted trough
    -500mb low broad, strong, and passing right over SNE.
    -Ocean enhancement / wrap around moisture.
    -Large envelope of banding snow on the NW flank of the storm as Atlantic moisture gets thrown into an area of upward motion in mid levels.

    I’m just over 50% certain that we plow in just about all of SNE from this one.

    1. You’re getting there. I’m not totally convinced, but there are SIGNS for sure.

      Many thanks for sharing your thoughts. Much appreciated.

    2. So we have a 50% chance of missing ;). I’ll take it. This thing looks as if it has damage potential written all over it

      1. Well I’m not gonna venture into the numbers domain yet but we have a decent shot at a substantial snow as it stands now.

      1. Time to face it john, there will be at least some impact. Plows will be out tuesday night and wed

        1. It doesn’t matter to me as its going to do what it wants to. I will say enjoy it because its probably the last you see of it till next year. Whatever falls will be melted by weekends end.

          1. Probably will not be the last flakes of the season.

            MAY be the last significant threat, only because many season we have not seen any threats in April (and some we have).

      1. I’m guessing that pile wasn’t made by one guy with a shovel in a driveway πŸ™‚

  48. What an awesome day today. The sun has been shining all day today – 15 minutes and its 57 out there now. This is what I want and more as winter had its turn now beat it till next year.

    1. How does that make sense? You don’t but you do…its something my wife would confuse me with πŸ™‚

      2. It makes sense to me.
        Besides, the snow that falls now will be gone in a few days.

        To be honest, I hope we get freaking walloped. πŸ™‚

        1. I know you say we can get snow till may but even you can agree I suspect that spring snowstorms rare around these parts, look at when the last one was.

          1. You mean Spring snowstorms, as in significant snowstorms after the Equinox? Yes they are quite rare. But some of the ones we have had have been whoppers. It is why I never ever call it “over” before we get beyond the historical final date.

    1. It may retrograde underneath very rapidly intensifying upper low. In fact I believe this will occur.

  51. The sun did shine today. It was not nearly as blah as I portrayed it. I apologize for being negative. Yet, I spent almost all day outside (mostly working). I felt really cold this morning. Temps in the 30s early this morning with a stiff breeze. Then, there was a brief nice spell of weather this afternoon (mid 50s), but still with a stiff, uncomfortable breeze. It’s just not my type of weather. Everyone has their preference.

    1. Arctic front is due about 10AM Sunday. That’s when things will really turn January-ish again, other than the sun angle/strength.

  52. 18Z GFS sticking with mostly OTS, just a couple inches. Doesnt really explode till its past us

  54. The 18z GFS hardly shows anything, even for the Cape. Much weaker on its closest pass to us compared to the last run, by about 10mb, and a bit further east as well. I’m still in Camp Charlie for this one. We’ll probably need the sanders and salters out, and maybe the plows for the Cape, but it looks like no big deal to me. I’d love to be wrong though! It’ll be tough watching a storm like this sail by, provided it actually does get as strong as most of the models have shown.

  55. Lambert from 7 thinks it stays mainly off shore . Who knows plenty more roller coaster runs before its here.

  56. I know this defeats the fun but it ignore the 6z and 18z solutions this far out. Also if models are what you want and upper air and surface analysis are not your thing, a blend of the GFS and ECMWF and their ensemble means will serve you well.

  57. I don’t ride roller coaster runs.
    I don’t even ride roller coasters at amusement parks. Nope. Not for me. πŸ™‚

    1. The models sure do as they don’t know what’s up or down this entire winter. Weird thing as I would think they would handle these events alot better but does not seem that way.

  58. JMA I would like to hear your thoughts on this storm and how you think it may play out. Thank you.

  60. Well while you guys enjoyed a spring day. I was in a Blizzard. . Went to Stowe today last minute idea and it worked out. Snow, wind, near white out conditions at times, new snow on the trails every time we got up, ankle to knee deep in powder. ( my legs are saying you idiot) πŸ˜€

  62. I blend euro and gfs and you get about 10 inches in Boston and more south. I still think this storm is closer and clobbers eastern ne but I guess we wait and see.

  63. I defently thing extream southern New England and cape gets it good but the rest may or may not be in a wild card position.

  66. I think everywhere from Worcester to the coast is in play. This is a monster with a big wind and precip field.

  67. Also keep in mind storm is throwing precip into an artic air mass so the contrast should enhance snowfall in eastern areas.

  68. BB is bought into the storm just unsure of exact track. Says that if it comes west we could be talking 2-3 feet and historic.

    1. I think they all bought into the storm. He who shall not be named said last night it is a monster of a storm. I’d be surprised if 5 is saying anything different although I’ve only read blogs on 4 and 7 because 5s website drives me nuts. No reflection on the mets

  71. I can’t be sure but these springs storm can be tricky. The models struggle with deep systems like this late in the season. I think more than a sideswipe but not full frontal πŸ™‚

  73. 0Z GFS and NAM in.

    Blah blah

    Gfs has drifted even farhter out to sea and the NAM is following as is the DGEX.

    We’ll see what the Euro and CMC bring later.

  78. If the CMC and Euro back off and drift more OTS, then I think we can stick a fork in it.

    IF not, well then…..:lol:

    Not waiting up. Manana.

  79. I keep hearing (not necessary here) that once the energy comes ashore the models will have a better handle therefore the storm might trend west. I am sorry but if anything, when the energy comes ashore it will just confirm the east trend, that’s been the case with the last 2 storms, It’s not going to trend west In my opinion. I wish we could get hit hard, not just a 3 to 6 inch storm that will cause morning commute headaches but not enough to cancel work/school. The only model show ing a good hit is the british model, I should expect it to trend east, I hope I am wrong

  81. Do not ignore the potential based on the rate of sudden deepening that will likely occur with the cyclone offshore as the jet stream energy phase takes place.

    This is the ECMWF’s take on the result (not my forecast #’s at this time since I won’t be issuing them until Sunday night or early Monday)…

    https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/v/t35.0-12/10149747_601341959935582_1640246597_o.jpg?oh=3708d3029da0fc1986cdac9a19dd394f&oe=5330B72B

  86. So I am extremely confused with the euro, gfs and TK. Will we get more model agreement today or do we have to wait until tomorrow?

  87. Clearly we have model mayhem. Normally I would be all in with euro but after this winter, hmmmmm

    1. Answer to mid-week storm: no one knows with any real certainty.

      Most think it is a sideswipe, but that does not mean there won’t be plenty of snow. And 0bviously we all know what a small track shift can do. Being tired of winter, I’ll take OTS, but I am afraid the Euro may know what it is doing for once this winter.

      I often wonder whether certain models by inherent design end up grasping certain situations better than other situations. Hypothetically, does the current Euro model design “understand” situations where there is little or no PV and some blocking better than it understands when there is a strong PV and no blocking. Again very hypothetical, but feeling like models perform better when conditions are right for that model. The Euro may have a little better understanding this time around, and at the same time I want it to be wrong. Warmth please!

  88. Trend last night was out to sea for sure. Euro is struggling yet again. However, the 6z GFS did shift west some. I don’t subscribe to the “ignore the 6z and 18z runs” theory. From my understanding, those runs don’t receive as much new data as the 0z and 12z runs, but I never notice that much of an impact. I’ve often found 6z and 18z NAM and especially GFS runs can be indicators of which way models will shift at the next regular (0z or 12z) cycle. For example, last night’s 18z GFS was further east, and most of the 0z runs followed suit. So maybe the 12z runs will swing west like the 6z GFS, too, although I’m not confident of that. By the way, the Euro ensembles are east of the operational, although they still show a respectable storm. CMC ensembles are quite a bit west of the operational, which made a big shift east and basically took us out of the precipitation. 0z GFS ensembles almost perfectly matched the operational.

  89. Judging by most models and stations, we are dodging a bullet, we will get a little snow on Wed, but most of the intense stuff stays over the open fish, good day!!

  90. Too soon Charlie. Don’t disagree that an ots is on the table but IMO not responsible to dismiss either.

  91. Why is the euro showing big numbers in eastern mass and cape? Did it shift west? Or precipitation shield expended?

    1. It’s showing a “double low” setup within the storm. There’s one strong low with its main precipitation shield well offshore, but a second, developing strong low very near or just outside the benchmark which is throwing heavy precipitation in here. If that happens, and while unlikely it can’t be ruled out, we could see a monster snowstorm. I wish I could post these graphics but first of all I don’t know how, lol, and secondly I’m really not supposed to post ECMWF data. It’s from the same site as the snow map TK posted (which, it should be pointed out, uses a constant 10:1 snow ratio and thus may be a bit too low on amounts, especially in the interior where ratios will likely be higher.)

      3. You made the exact point I was going to make, and an excellent description of why this model is forecasting heavier snow amounts.

        Yes it is an outlier. I realize that. I’m not also saying that I buy the scenario depicted on it. It’s also important to note there have been several occasions in the past (not this winter, however) in which this model has been the only one to depict this type of double low scenario, and been correct. Those occasions were before the upgrade, however, so I’m not sure if that makes a difference (I cannot recall the dates/storms off the top of my head).

  93. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the record cold high for this day in Boston?
    A. 15
    B. 20
    C. 25
    D. 30

    Answer later today.

  94. C.
    I think most of the energy will be over the fish but since the storm system is so large there will be accumulating snow in at least part of SNE.

  96. NWS probs for snow accum are in. They have been very good with these this winter. Not looking good if u want a lot of snow. Boston with only around a 50/50 shot of 4″ or greater and chances go way down for 6+. Cape and islands much higher probs. I’ll take C for the trivia answer.

    1. I love snow but this thing looks to have too much damage potential so I’m delighted seeing it go further OTS.

      1. I agree. Unfortunately, even if current track holds, there will still be destruction along the coastline. Way too powerful of a storm.

  97. TK – Would you say that any forecasts from all sources (yourself included) later today will in fact be the FINAL call on the storm for all practical purposes or is there one more day of “wiggle” room so to speak?

    And will this be the last opportunity for accumulating snow for the season? I noticed that the CPC is trending mild & wet for the forseeable future for most of the CONUS.

    1. Certainly no final call today.
      There never really is a final call until the event is over, because a responsible forecaster should continue informing people of what is coming up, but also what is ongoing regionally and locally during an event.

      Meteorology isn’t really a test (not saying that is what you are implying, just using your question as a base to make a point). It’s a science in which we attempt to predict the behavior of the atmosphere and its impact on us and our environment. It’s a continual process, like time. To make a final call, to me, is like putting a finish on something with no end. Granted, even I have used the term “final call” in reference to the last full forecast before an event gets underway, but it’s a short-term final, at best, if that makes any sense.

  98. I know I’ve asked about Bermuda and at the time there didn’t seem to be much concern. With friends headed there tomorrow, I wanted to see if there is still little concern for that area. Thank you!

    1. I could be wrong, but the storm wont be undergoing rapid intensification until past bermuda. Still a storm but not nearly the strength it will be when it gets to our latitude

  99. Phillip I can only speak for myself but a forecast that is 48 hours out from system onset and 60 plus hours out from maximum potential impact is not a final call and all forecasts are always subject to refinement as time nears and actual surface conditions and upper air patterns are realized.

      1. See above. It’s a very similar answer, with a bit more philosophy as well. πŸ˜‰

  101. This will NOT be a big storm for most of southern new england. We will perhaps see “some” snow in the order of a few inches in Boston with more to the south but this will mainly be a fish storm.

  104. 06NAM get extremely close, dumps a crap load of snow over Cape.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=nam&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=084

    Snow map (not complete)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    06GFS

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=084&fixhh=1&hh=078

    Snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096

  106. Joe B still sticking with west shift

    @BigJoeBastardi: No confluence in front of storm should mean correction west. Models wont be locked in till all the players in the middle of field Mon-Tue

    1. I don’t have enough skill to figure this one out.

      I like your term Hadi: Model Mayhem

      SREF is usually polluted from the NAM, yet is shows a surprising snow total?

      Not sure what is up with that.

      CMC bombs this to 948 mb. Incredible.

      If it tracks close enough. HISTORIC!!

      Perhaps we all should be rooting for an OTS solution.

      btw, 12z NAM is cooking.

      I have a hunch it will trend West. Don’t know of course. We shall see soon.

    2. I would think a confluent flow behind the system would have more of an effect on this storm. Sure, there might not be confluence ahead of it, but if theres a big push in the atmosphere behind the storm, that will most definately push this thing further east.

    1. We have had low pressure areas weaker than that, centered in that spot, that have dumped 1 to 2 feet of snow on eastern MA.

      And I realize that this storm may end up with a sharp cut off on the western edge, but we can’t be 100% sure of that because of the placement of the 500mb features and other factors.

      There is no lock on any scenario yet. Anybody who says otherwise is lying to themselves and whomever they tell. πŸ™‚

      1. Thanks TK. So nice to see your input this morning.

        I admit, I am stumped. Friday I was convinced of an OTS scenario, yesterday I thought it could still be. but thought a grzze was more in the cards. Now today?????????????????????????

        It concerns me that the CMC moved considerably East, while
        the GFS and NAM and to an extent the Euro seem to be
        creeping West.

        So put it all together, if you forced me, I’d lean towards a
        Westward creep and a rather large IMPACT from this system.

        Waiting on NAM.

        I “think” it will creep West on the 12Z run. We shall see.
        πŸ‘Ώ

  108. A trend ive noticed since this threat first appeared on guidance, slowly with each sucessive run, the heights in the west arent rising quite as much and the eastern trough just isnt digging enough. That and the apparent disappearing blocking that was supposed to set up, all point to a more eastern track.

  109. Even with a more eastern track, i strongly feel plows will still be out for at least some of the area. Maybe not huge amounts, but enough to plow (we can all debate how much snow is plowable). Sharp cutoff, yes, but i feel at the very least, areas along and east of I95 from prov to bos will see plows out by wed morning.

  110. Euro 500mb Vorticity Advection Chart

    http://i.imgur.com/08VE8qC.png?1

    Vorticity Advection
    leads to rising/falling pressures at the surface
    Vorticity is the localized rotation of the air. Air that rotates counterclockwise, such as in cyclones and troughs, is said to have positive vorticity. Clockwise rotating air, such as in high pressure systems and ridges, has negative vorticity. The advection of vorticity at high levels will result in a response at the surface which will attempt to offset the effects of the advection. More specifically, vorticity advection is indicative of rising motion/falling pressures at the surface.

    Tk, is this what you meant when discussing 500Mb features contributing to snowfall,
    even if storm is off shore? Thanks

  112. From what I’m hearing from most mets is that the cape and extream south coast to get the all out affect of snow and wind and the more north you go the less. Could this stay confined to the cape? Would not be the first as seemed to be the theme this past winter. Thoughts.

  114. Nam is looking too far off shore, so far. Perhaps it will get sucked Northward, but
    not looking good at 60 hours.

      1. Yes, that is true. Even so, could this be the final solution?
        We’ll see what the other models show.

        NAM has been pretty piss-poor lately, so until there is
        other model confirmation, Probably should be discarded for now.

        Time will tell.

        πŸ‘Ώ

    1. πŸ˜† he he he

      NOT one single time did we have model consensus on even a single event!!!

      Crazy season. So why should it end any other way??

  120. Henry is awfully quiet. Where did y
    he go?

    For that matter, DT hasn’t said a word in a couple of days?

    What’s up?

    1. Henry hasnt been active since March 5th, and DT only gets excited when theres a storm in Virginia

        1. It is concerning though. Seems most are considering this a non-event. While i do think chances are good this will be the case for most, i think it deserves more headlines. Way too much potential to be ignored. Very minor adjustments will have major implications.

  121. GFS so far way off shore, much like the NAM was. Me thinks this one is talking
    a walk with the FISH…..

  123. GFS is REALLY BOMBING this thing out. Looking for negative tilt to suck this thing back. Probably to no avail. πŸ˜€

  124. Comparing the low positions from the euro and GFS. Are they similar with different precip coverage?

  125. JB
    @BigJoeBastardi: Feedback low still taking over on GFS east of warmest Gulf stream water off mid atlantic.I have storm at 40N,70 west
    Wed am, GFS east of me

    1. Big joe has been banking on blocking, evidence for blocking has been slowly waning with each run. There is nothing in the atmosphere to prevent this from progressing

    1. I recognize he is good, but his thinking on the previous 2 storms did not come to fruition. Not saying he’s wrong this time, but

  127. @EdValleeWx: When the Euro and it’s ensembles are in agreement inside 84 hours, everyone better listen.

      1. Not that I could see, they looked about the same, however, can’t tell where it counts due to the damn 24 hour increments!!!

  128. http://i.imgur.com/buUl3xQ.png?1

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_066_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140323+12+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_069_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=069&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140323+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    Hard to tell. You might be correct?

    1. I hear u OS. Wouldnt be the first time this winter the euro was discounted and/or weighted less in the overall forecast. Actually has happened a lot this winter.

      1. How do the mets make a forecast? What do they tell the public?
        It’s OTS and then we get walloped? Well the Euro will be out in a couple of hours. It, too, will probably be OTS and we can put it to rest. IF not? Well the FUN begins!!!!

  131. Interesting take from one of our meteorologists here in CT Sam Kantrow
    Keep in mind the Euro was a major #fail the last month and would overdo every “snow” event that ended up being a miss. The Canadian was always consistent with the storms as being either minor impact, or zero impact. I take a lot of stock on that after the winter we had.

  132. I could go either way at this point – Sure, I’d love to put the winter to rest with a grand finale Spring blizzard, but then again I’d be quite happy with not having to dust off the shovels πŸ™‚

  135. 12z CMC is in and looks a bit further east still compared to its 0z run. It did look like it was maybe trying to get that double low setup going, but to no avail, and even that would’ve been too far east. As soon as we see the Euro shift east in a couple hours we can probably stick a fork in it.

  136. Models to not put much (if any) faith in today: The NAM, which does not forecast correctly outside of 48 hours. The GFS, which does not handle the dumbell low structure very well at all.

    Models to have some faith in: Canadian, which is getting the right idea. ECMWF, which has sucked at times, and been OK at others, but recently better than previously, and is forecasting something that no other model was forecasting (and got right last time it did that).

    Analog: Although it was on the other side of the season, there is some analogy to be drawn between this upcoming system and the December 5-6 1981 storm, which delivered big snow to eastern MA despite its low center being well offshore. It developed heavier snow under the 500mb low and a second low developing pulled the initial storm westward and it did a mini-loop, still pretty far offshore but close enough.

    Does this mean I expect a repeat? No. I have not issued #’s yet, not even a first guess nevermind a “last call”. What I am saying is, no matter what any runs say today (Sunday), you do not stick a fork in a storm that has not developed yet. That’s like trying to frost the cake before you make it.

    We still have the rest of today to go through, all of tomorrow, and the majority of Tuesday, before this event starts doing whatever it is going to do to southeastern New England. And I agree, it may not be much, but we cannot rule anything out right now.

    How about earlier this winter, when the BIG ONE was coming, and already underway, only to have dry air from the NW cut the snow amounts as a coating to 3 inches where up to or over a foot was in the forecast? It can go the other way too. Be careful about relying too much on guidance before taking a look at what is actually taking place in the atmosphere, before as well as during the formation and evolution of a storm.

    2. So 48hrs away we can expect a possible blizzard, a run of the mill nor’easter, a moderate snow event, a light event, or nothing at all. That’s crazy, I feel like either the models suck, and we r chasing carrots, it’s fun to watch, if your right then the jokes on me, but right now this is a light event for south of Boston, it’ll be long forgotten by Thursday IMO, thanks for the blog tk, we shall see πŸ™‚

      1. ModeΕ‚s have gone backwards over the years, they need to stop trying to fix them and leave them alone, unless they know what there doing

        1. I agree with you Charlie and you bring very valid points to the table, thank you for your contributions to this blog.

        2. That is something I do somewhat agree with. Sometimes they seem to tweak them almost too much.

        1. IF there’s a deep new snowpack across the area that might be difficult to achieve πŸ™‚

  137. There is going to be an impact to at least some of SNE even with a storm mostly offshore. A direct hit is a low chance of happening and a complete miss I think is very low.

        1. Well I believe Plymouth county starts in hingham so from there all the way down to sagamore bridge where the cape starts. Hingham, Hanover , Hanson, pembroke , marshfield, duxbury etc.

      2. Ive always been curious as everyone’s thinking seems to be different with regards to the south shore/south coast/SE MA, etc

        1. Good question Ace. My mind thinks hingham down to cape ….maybe a bit north of Hingham. I wonder if there is a specific definition

  138. Regarding the euro. It has badly missed in overdoing snowfalls a lot this winter, especially in the past month showing huge amounts of snow but ultimately we get little or nothing. Those times were in the medium to long range, 5+ days out, only for it to relax in its thinking and come around to the consensus. This time around, its trending the other way, to more snow as we get closer. It hasnt showed this much snow this close to an event in some time. That said, if the 12Z run goes OTS (which i think it will) this will be a moot point. But this late in the game with its latest trend toward more snow, leaves some food for thought.

  139. Sooooo are the models getting worse as Charlie says or are folks relying on them more and forgetting to use real knowledge ?

  141. Euro goes meow. Much less snow than 00Z. Expands on the the double low idea. Not as far east as other guidance though. Throws about 3″ boston, 6 or 7″ cape

  142. No matter what boston or other areas get I’m thinking again this may be a good one for the cape again.

  143. Unfortunately, the OTS trend cannot be discounted, especially given the recent track record. This was our last chance at snow, and it will likely go by the boards. No snow in Boston. Just gray and cold. Some snow on the Cape. Perhaps 6 inches on Nantucket. Late for them to have accumulating snow.

    1. Agreed. Tim Kelley on Twitter is sold on mostly out to sea. Says it’s looking like a piece of cake forecast, which it really is now. I agree with a lot of what TK said earlier about how you shouldn’t try to verify a forecast before the event happens and how we’re still a couple days out, but let’s face it, this one’s sailing well east of here. I could be wrong, and if so I’ll be giving huge props to TK and others for sticking with it, but I say we’ve got a pretty simple out to sea miss on a monster storm (12z Euro goes below 950mb as it passes us!! That’d be quite a sight.) We’ll have to see just how much of a graze the Cape gets though. That I’m not sure on.

  144. Extremely sharp and I mean extremely sharp cutoff to the precip, some north and west may just see a few flakes

  145. No matter what happens it better start precipitating soon. Risk of brush fires will increase when we do get warmer weather. It’s very dry out there.

  146. The fact guidance is changing its depiction to a 2 low idea makes me think this thing is far from being decided. Sure models have been trending east, but have they really stabilized? The fact this 2 low idea is coming back into the picture leads me to believe there is still adjustments to be made. High stakes here with this storm being so large and powerful. Nothing should be off the table until it happens. Dangerous line to toe with this one. Slight wobble or loop or retrograde west and its a whole different ballgame.

  147. The Euro has finally come around. Many models suggest OTS. This will not be a big storm for us. After the storm passes, expect spring likes temps around these parts:) I was actually hoping for a big snow storm because I wanted to overseed my grass just prior to the storm. This would have been the perfect time as the seeds would have remained moist and prepped for spring like temps as we move into April. Oh well.

  148. Even as far SE as the 12z ECMWF it produces some serious precip.
    Nantucket ~1.75
    Hyannis ~1.5
    Taunton ~.75
    Providence ~.5
    Norwood ~.5
    Boston ~.5

    Beyond that Hartford to Springield to Worcester to Lawrence .25-.40

    I will remind everyone we have received significant snow from lows this far SE and beyond. This winter has been a challenge because set ups that should not give us significant snow have done so in bands over SNE and this set up which should be more favorable to widespread significant snowfall, may not.

      1. I understand we have seen significant snow from lows further south and east of the area, but what were the set-ups? Were other features similar to the current set-up? I would think for lows far out to produce here there would need to be some sort of channel for moisture to extend west. I dont see that type of set-up here but i could be wrong.

  149. Right now I am leaning towards the more uniform less than ~.25 QPF across SNE with the exception of the Cape and the Islands. Most of the snow should come from the light over-running snow that evolves from the SW flow from the northern stream trough. This light snow could break out as early as the late daylight hours in western areas. Lack of the significant blocking, the northern stream system moving too fast to interact with the slower southern stream system near the SC/GA border which is further south than the ideal coastal NC/VA border location for southern stream systems to move NNE and find an ideal passing location of a phased system within the benchmark area.

    1. Thanks for your input JMA, always appreciated. I do have one question though. Very early in the game when this storm first started showing up on guidance, it was always developing the low off the FL/GA/SC coastline. At that point, even given that fact, models were moving this thing up NNE to almost due N for a time. Is it now the lack of sufficient blocking thats not allowing it to come too far up the coast and ultimately get pushed east?

  150. I’m not sure everybody understood what I was saying earlier.

    I did not make the call that we were going to get nailed. I said I would not completely take the possibility off the table until I was certain of it. I cited examples, valid ones.

    That is responsible forecasting, but then again many people that forecast don’t actually have to answer to anyone, so they can afford to make calls days in advance and then say how excellent they were if they verify. πŸ™‚

    2. Two things at work here.

      The public who wants hyper-local details 5 days out and a segment of the forecasting community who is all to willing to give that information to them even if it is not worth the 6z DGEX model info the used to derive their forecast from.

      2. With all due respect JMA I’d add a third…..the station management who dictates how and when to get the forecast out with little regard to the expertise of the mets they have on staff. Perhaps that is what you mean by forecasting community.

  151. This afternoon’s CPC 6-10/8-14 day outlook is now back to below normal temps and above normal precip. Just yesterday, it was showing normal to even above normal temps and precip.

    Interesting how does the CPC changed from “mild & wet” back to “cold & (potentially)snowy” so radically in just 24 hours….interesting. ❓

    I guess if this verifies, then the late week warmup advertised will be delayed for quite some time or at least tempered down.

    1. No surprise there. Been talking about only brief warming. We are not entering a pattern that allows prolonged warmth anytime soon.

        1. That was my thinking as well. I could see a big warm push somewhere late April, then maybe a snap back to a few chilly shots into or through mid May then perhaps a jump to a more summertime or very late springtime type pattern.

  152. There are certain things I look at that are just my own tricks of the trade. In general, I find we have more opportunity for systems from the two streams to merge when they eject off the NC/VA coast and to the north then they do to the south of those locations and models rarely are able to decipher that little geographic distinction with or without blocking in the mid or long term. Other little factors I always look at where models bring pacific moisture ashore what those systems do to a present western ridge.

      1. I think it takes someone who has studied the systems for a very long time and has the ability to parse out the nuances. I didn’t see if you answered my question above re models. Its the “tricks” if you will that I wonder about and if many have forgotten to rely on them as much or more than the models

    2. Yes matt, thanks. Really good image. You would think tracks like that would be giving SE a lot more snow than depicted. GFS furthest east, all others clustered pretty well in a similar spot, just SE of benchmark

    1. Yeah, I’ve still got 4-6 on average in my yard. Some bares pots here and there starting to show up

      1. We down here have been completely bare for about 5 days, a lot of the ponds and lakes that were ice just 2 weeks ago are all water πŸ™‚

  156. My UGh meter just popped for about the 10th time!!!

    I can’t take any more of this.

    The EURO blows chunks!!!!!

    The Canadian has gone on a fishing trip!!!!

    I just don’t see how this can turn around.

    We shall see, it has not formed yet.

  158. We can still see a shift west. There have been plenty of storms in recent memory that looked OTS for several runs only to come back west at the last minute. Day after xmas a few years back is one that comes to mind. We had all pretty much stuck a fork in that one and then 2 nights before it took a big turn to the west and clobbered us.

  160. 18Z NAM => Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide Right!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_069_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=069&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140323+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=75

    WOW! That is an awefully sharp cut off to the West. There is like no precip on the
    Western Flank at all. IT’s like it was sheared off. Dry Cold air? Why?

  163. TK, the president if the company I work for has a 10:25am flight on Wednesday. Will it be delayed or cancelled? He has the ability to change to a earlier flight. Which would e better Monday Night, Tuesday Am or Pm?

    Thanks in advanced.

    1. Let’s assume the worst-case scenario, which is a low probability, takes place.

      That would be an onset of snow Tuesday afternoon with a sizable storm peaking that night and slowly tapering off Wednesday.

      If that were to come to fruition, a flight no later than Tuesday AM would be best. I say better err on the side of caution because a monster storm will be too close for comfort.

  165. This is getting close to decision making time for the tv mets. Saw a story from Terry on BZ still thinking 6″ is a good possibility for boston and more cape. This will be one difficult forecast. For as much consistency as we have seen with the models for an eastward trend, the in-model consistency has not been there. No one model has been consisteny on this storm within its own runs.

  166. Models show a lot of 50+ temps starting late this week, wouldn’t suprise me if it hit 60 degrees especially fri/sat.

      1. Lol I’d believe 50’s on the models a week out over a model saying over a foot in late march, just saying πŸ™‚

            1. You are absolutely correct. But remember in the past you have told others that they pick out models with high snow because they want snow. So you admit you do the same thing regarding mild weather? πŸ™‚

              1. I do, Especially if I see it in late March, right now I’m rooting hard against this storm, and yes your seeing it, 2 months ago when I wasn’t so sick to hear the word snow, I’d be looking at the models differently, I’m no expert, but I do follow all models, take it easy tk πŸ˜‰

  167. 18Z GFS follows 18Z NAM waaaay OTS. Offers maybe, maybe an inch or 2 for boston, even the cape doesnt get into the action

  168. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the record cold high for this day in Boston?
    A. 15
    B. 20
    C. 25
    D. 30

    The correct answer is C.

    1. Not much clustering going on with the potential storm positions. Just as many positions west as there are east. Far from decided. Each position offers up major differences in outcomes.

  170. Here’s something interesting from the Upton NWS office:

    PHASE TO THE POINT WHERE A 500MB LOW CLOSES…BUT OCCURRING TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TENDENCY OF THE SURFACE LOW IS TO BE DRAWN INTO THE DIRECTION OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW POSITION…NOT EXPECTING MODELS TO HAVE ANY EVENTUAL SIGNIFICANT
    WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ALSO…SUNY STONY BROOK
    ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IMPLIES THAT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM HAS SHIFTED FROM MORE OF A POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO MORE OF AN INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY. THERE IS THEREFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM WHAT A CONSENSUS IS NOW SHOWING.

  172. Even the SREF has shift East considerably.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_069_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15&param=mslp&fhr=069&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140323+15+UTC&ps=area&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    12 hour qpf

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_072_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15&param=precip_p24&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=area&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140323+15+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    1. Can’t you just see all of those fishes swimming around underneath all
      of the QPF. It dramatizes the FISH storm!!!

      1. I dont think its gonna be a dry NW wind. There will be a neg trough out there along the coast, flow will not be from the NW

    1. O.S., this thing had low odds right from the start.

      Blocking is going to show up just in time to give us a 40 degree spring till June 1.

  177. Looking like 1-3 Boston , less north and west, 2-4 south of Boston, 3-6 cc, it will all be gone the next day πŸ™‚

  179. Hey OS – Regarding your posting of the Upton NY Statement, am I correct that regardless of what happens, there will be no further westward shift in the track?

  181. If it doesnt snow much Wed and BB’s 58F and 66F verify Friday and Saturday, TK’s brother’s snow pile could be gone by the end of Sunday the 30th. Got a shot, I think. πŸ™‚

        1. Just a first call. I think the take-home message they should be saying is, any small shift will make a huge difference. This time more so than ever

  183. For such a large and powerful storm, its western side of precip is rather small and sucked in tight to its circulation. Im surprised models are depicting this given there will be a neg trough along the entire east coast. There will not be a huge push of dry air from the NW eroding the western edge this time around so i wonder why the lack of western edge precip

  184. 60s Saturday? Let’s try, near 50.

    It may be in the lower 60s away from the South Coast and Cape Cod on Friday though. πŸ™‚

  185. Im really hoping for this storm to give us a few surprises. I enjoy tracking these things and getting excited for snow. Once the snow chances dwindle it can get boring around here and on the blog. Lets face it, extreme weather is what draws most to the blog.

    2. I do look at all year, even when it’s boring, I still read the www weather blog, most come here for expensive or destructive weather πŸ™‚ but we all love it πŸ™‚

      2. I don’t sell expensive or destructive weather. I just forecast all weather. πŸ˜›

      1. I just hope that one of TK’s analogs happens here.
        The one he alluded to was Dec, 1982??? Something like that.

        Almost ALL mets got it WRONG and forecast OTS.
        Bob Copeland got it correct and Boston got close to a foot.

        Similar situation. We shall see. That would be the surprise
        we are looking for.

  186. I hear ya ace but truth is snow is really coming to a close for this year whether we like it or not. New season now different ball game. I think Wednesday really is the last shot.

        1. Of course. Especially since you can’t beat the reliability of the 18z GFS. πŸ˜‰

  189. I believe it was February 19th when the last 3 inch snowfall happened. I know Boston has gotten 1.5 inches of snow this month. Here in CT 0 in the snowfall department for the month of March but above normal snowfall for both shoreline and inland.
    56.3 inches shoreline 50.1 inches inland.

  190. BigJoe thinks the Fujiwara effect works in favor of a more western solution. Thinks the low to the east gets sucked in by the one to the west. Not sure how that will work

      1. Oldsalty so what’s the deal with this storm, is it on is it off. How much for boston and south shore. Tomorrow the runs will show big hit?

    2. It will only work if the western low deepens extremely rapidly. And then there is no guarantee it comes west far enough for huge impact.

  191. Euro still shows close to 10 inches in Boston and over 18 on Cape. So yes it has trended a little east but still has a decent sized storm.

    1. idk Hadi, i hate to disagree, but it looked more like 4″ max in boston and up to 8″ on the very outer cape

        1. Idk where they get those numbers from, the map I saw looked much closer to what Hadi said, around 5-8″ for Boston and 12-18″+ for the Cape. Weird. Probably a moot point anyways though with the eastward trend likely to continue tonight.

  195. Great write-up from Barry tonight as usual, would definitely recommend reading it if you haven’t. He’s thinking 1-3″ along and west of I95, 3-6″ southeast of there to the canal and 6-12″ Cape and Islands. I think he’s too high on those amounts for the Cape, and possibly elsewhere, but we’ll see.

    1. He may be in the ballpark. I can’t find any reason to argue those #’s right now.

    1. I know you are aware – but good or bad, we are outside the NAMs sweet spot. (If the nam has a sweet spot this season.)

      1. True. Im just looking for any clues to a closer pass. Upper levels look good on this run but same result as other runs. Still too far east. I give up, lol

        1. Supposed to be. Unfortunately, it’s been useless outside 48 and so-so from 48 in this season. Disappointing. I don’t use it any longer.

  199. Right now I would be looking for any slight shifts east or west with this storm system as that is going to impact the amount of snow we receive. Were going to be nowcasting this storm system and watching as this thing tracks up the coast and see which way it wobbles.

  200. This reminds me of that storm back in February where it tracked just far enough to the east where the Cape and the Islands got hit hard and the rest of SNE had a light snowfall. If that system went west a little bit it would have another outcome. To me this is what we got here where a slight shift west could bring more accumulating snow to SNE and a slight shift more to the east than models are projecting may only be the Cape and Islands get snowfall.

  201. 0Z NAM much closer, but only brings snow to cape and islands.

    watched channel 5 tonight because news was delayed on 4.

    Wankum posted 3 snowmaps and for boston.

    GFS = 2 inches
    Euro = 9+ inches
    RPM = 19+ inches

    What’s up with that??? Then he forecast 2-4 for boston and 4-8 SE and 6-12 cape.

    ???????????????????????????????????

  202. Good morning, Winter Storm Watch issued for Bristol/Plymouth counties and… a Blizzard Watch issued for Cape/Islands.

Comments are closed.