On The Good Edge

173 Comments

7:18AM

A final round of thunderstorms held together late Wednesday night to bring a brief soaking, some gusty wind, vivid lightning, and big thunder rumbles to areas of north central and northeastern MA and southern NH. The front responsible for this is now settling just offshore and will be located fairly close to the coast through early Friday. A couple of low pressure waves moving up along the front will likely remain far enough east to keep most wet weather offshore (except Nantucket this morning), but some cloudiness may slide up across the area, especially southeastern MA including Cape Cod, at times through early Friday. The front will finally push far enough east for all areas to enjoy a fantastic Saturday with lots of sun and warm air as high pressure dominates. This will quickly give way to a disturbance approaching from the west on Sunday, which will bring clouds and eventually a chance of showers. Unsettled and more humid weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as a broad trough approaches from the west. A shot of unseasonably cool air will be moving out of Canada into the north central US during this time and some of that air is due by the middle of next week here in the Northeast.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Clouds southeastern MA and RI especially morning-midday including showers Nantucket, with more sun to the northwest, then mostly sunny afternoon. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return to southeastern  MA, mostly clear to the northwest. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds depart southeastern MA morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 64. High 84, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers possible. Low 64. High 81.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 76.

173 thoughts on “On The Good Edge”

    1. No. Still think the parent low is far enough north to allow any rain to be showery in nature though there may be a wetter period sometime Sunday

  3. Thanks TK.

    I here rumblings of possible severe weather on the 14th.

    Some decent instability parameters are beginning to show on the GFS and the CMC.

    Will continue to monitor. So far I don’t see a severe outbreak, but there “could”
    be some strong storms. Things can change, so we will continue to watch.

      1. I can buy that. Thanks.

        However, in the Mid-Atlantic area, it “may” be a different
        story. Time will tell.

        BTW last night Eric was Bullish on at least some HEAVY RAIN.
        😀

  4. Thanks TK.
    A quiet weather day today but that was not the case 25 years ago on this day as there were several tornadoes across the northeast. This day is still the biggest severe weather outbreak in my life. One of the tornadoes came through my town just after 5pm that day. I was five years old at the time and my mom and I were in my bedroom as the storm came through. As a little boy I was scared at the time. A tree came down in the front yard but missed the house. The tornado was an F1 but about a half hour later a stronger F4 tornado hit Hamden, CT which is just north of New Haven. It created the biggest swath of tornado damage in the history of CT.
    Here is a link and its a very interesting read and it proves tornadoes even strong ones can happen here in the northeast if the conditions line up the right way.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Northeastern_United_States_tornado_outbreak

    1. Interesting read and many thanks JJ.

      Could Early next week be a repeat? I seriously doubt it, however, one never knows. We shall watch.

      1. There are some ingredients there for early next week but it does not look like the same setup as was the case 25 years
        ago today. With that said early next week needs to be watched.
        6z GFS goes bonkers with EHI not so much for SNE but if you look closely you see a wide area of 4 from Soutern NY
        parts of NJ DEL MD and VA.
        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=108&fixhh=1&hh=114

        1. JJ thanks for the link.

          Check out the Lifted Index and the Cape for those
          areas.

          LI of -8 to -10 and lower
          Capes of up to 5,000 joules!!!!

          Holy Crap Batman, we have the makings of a
          SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK in areas to the
          SouthWest of our area.

          I think we shall be spared severe weather.

          I believe our old friend DT was touting this outbreak
          for that area.

          1. Of course, between now and then, this area
            of concern could change, so we need to keep
            an eye on things.

            1. Thankfully were days away and this will change but hopefully no severe weather outbreaks
              here or down in Virginia where I will be on vacation from Monday through Saturday next week.

              1. JJ, Where in Virginia so I can
                keep that in mind next week?

                I have only been to Virginia Beach and Williamsburg. BEAUTIFUL
                there.

                ENJOY wherever you are going!

    3. Great read JJ. Was that the tornado that either originated or went through Suffield? Did you have an interest in weather then or did that come later?

      1. Hi Vicki… The tornado you were referring to was the Windsor Locks tornado that happened in October 1979.
        That tornado which was rated F 4 traveled on a northeast heading.
        The outbreak on July 10, 1989 started in Upstate NY and then the tornado entered northwest CT
        and traveled on a southeast heading towards my town of Watertown and hit just after 5pm. This was an F1 tornado.
        The worst tornado hit Hamden that day which was an F4 and as I said earlier this outbreak created the greatest
        swath of tornado damage in the history of CT. There were other tornadoes happening in MA and NJ around the time
        this was happening in CT.
        This outbreak and the Superstorm of 93 got to me into weather and I have loved it ever since and especially living
        here where we get every type of weather possible from blizzards to floods to tornadoes to hurricanes.

  5. Thanks TK! Looks like we will have spectacular weather for our 4th of July, or 12th of July parade, in Plymouth on Saturday.

  6. Another nice day down here with mostly sunny skies and warm conditions.mid 80s now and it’s been a fantastic weather for vacation. . Trying to figure something to do tonight today my son and I going to starland in Hanover.

  7. I like the respite from heat and humidity. While it returns early next week after that it looks like a sustained late August front coming through. Nice, especially in mid-July.

    Continues to be unseasonably cool way up north (Nunavut). I do think this fits with the overall pattern across the North American continent.

    With both my teams out of the World Cup – US and Holland – I don’t care much about the final. Holland’s cursed, a bit like the Red Sox from 1918-2004. Often in the hunt, sometimes very close, but never winning it all. I’m afraid it won’t happen anytime soon. World Cups happen every 4 years, it’s hard to even qualify, and the next generation of Dutch players is not as good as the one we’re seeing now. Oh well, there are more important things in life.

    1. July , yes. But, we’re only 10 days in. Without knowing for sure about June, I feel confident in saying that we were below normal in June. And, it’s not been especially hot at all across most of the NA continent throughout June and early July. In fact, 90F has been hard to come by in many of the northern tier states.

      1. I agree about 90 being hard to come by. Even here, even though we have been that much above normal, i believe only 1 day has actually hit 90, and it was just 90 with no days higher that that. We have yet to see the true heat which im not complaining about

        1. I like the heat ace but I’m not complaying about this summer at all as the weather has been great down here . I was thinking that the summer would end up below in the temp dept but it’s been great. There is plenty of summer left as not even a month into it but if it stays like this I’m good.

  11. Mid 70s in Walpole at this hour with high thin clouds shading the sun from time to time. Much more comfortable late august-like weather today.

    2. Oh geez I’ve always thought of late aug as heat and humidity, maybe more like mid to late sept like, average highs in mid Sept is 75-80, good day am 🙂

      1. Autumn begins 8/10!! OR least it seems that way MOST SUMMERS. 😆 😆

        NO WAY IS AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATUE 80 on ANY
        day in September, even the 1st. High temps for August DIP
        later in the Month.

        The Boston August Ave High starts at 81 on the 1st and ends
        at 77 on the 31st.

        Sept starts with 77 on the 1st and ends with 67 on the 30th.

        1. OS I agree that it feels like mid-August. No matter how HHH July is, I’ve always known I could count on August to begin moderating the temps to the point that the ACs could go off and the windows could open……….just like today 🙂

          1. The biggest indicator to me that summer is beginning to wind down are the evening and nighttime temps that time of year. That first evening into the 50’s feels great, but also means the beginning of the end of summer

            1. When i was younger and we had a pool, my dad used to call that first nighttime low in the 50s the “pool killer” 🙂

            2. I have the same memories. I love when the nights turn cooler. I’m not sure how the true pools have done this summer, but my daughter and SIL have one of the 12 foot x 3 foot blow up type for their 7 year old and it’s been cool.

  12. re: Next Tuesday from Upton NY

    BUT IF MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
    TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT…WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS TUES AFTN/EVENING. SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES ARE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS NEAR NORMAL…BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS 65-70.

  13. Average high is 84-85 degrees,, looks like we will be slightly below normal the next few days

  14. I know most don’t care about soccer but I have a story to share, Joshua would appreciate this 🙂

    I became a huge fan of Argentina in 78 as a 4 year old watching Argentina vs. Holland. I was very emotional this morning as I got the chance for my 4 year old to watch the PK as 4 year old of Argentina vs. Holland. I was in tears as he got so excited over it and I could imagine myself that way in 1978. Sure comes around full circle.

    3. Indeed, Argentina (like Holland) has a glorious soccer history. Argentina has been more successful at actually winning it all. I think from `78 to `86 Argentina was on top of the world. Maradonna is, in my humble opinion, the greatest player ever. Messi may follow in his footsteps. The Dutch player Johan Cruijyff belongs in the discussion, as do Pele and Zidane. Holland’s Robben is quite good, too. Not flashy, but very gifted.

      1. Holland has had amazing players, its a shame they have never won it. I do agree that Maradonna is probably the most skilled player in history, many other terrific players but as a skilled player no-one rivals him.

  17. SPC is highlighting our area for possible severe weather Tuesday. When they highlight an area passed day 3 the thinking is at least a 30% chance of severe weather.
    The timing of front will be key and just like in the winter when tracking winter storms models are going to go back and forth.

    1. Thank you JJ. Here is the map:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

      please note, ass JJ indicated:

      Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.

      IF that were day one, I “believe” that would indicate a MODERATE risk.

      So what are they looking at? CAPES and LI are only modest, at least on models we can see. Is it bulk shear? Lapse rates? What is it that would make
      them put that much of a RISK this far in advance. ANYONE? TK?

      1. SOME Clues is all they offer.

        MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT…INDICATING UPPER PATTERN WILL
        UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION IN THE 4-8 PERIOD.

        LOCATION OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT AREAS ON THESE DAYS WILL BE MODULATED BY ANTECEDENT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MCS
        DEVELOPMENT WHICH LOWERS OVERALL PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE
        PLACEMENT OF A 30% OR GREATER SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

        1. I REMAIN UNDERWHELMED by the 12Z
          model run Instability parameters. There is SOMETHING I am NOT understanding.

      2. lol OS, i had to laugh at ur comment, “…ass JJ indicated”

        Sometimes i have the mind of a 12 year old 😀

        And the slow weather day continues…

          1. I gotcha, just giving u a hard time. Just wanted u to know i got a chuckle out of it :devil:

  18. SPC did this last year around what they thought was going to be a severe weather outbreak 19th and 20th of July highlighting our area five six days in advance and when the day came all we had were garden variety thunderstorms. On the other hand the SPC was highlighting our area 5 days prior to the Springfield Tornado and we all know what happened on June 1, 2011.
    I don’t think were going to have a good idea till Sunday and just like with winter storms where one run shows a monster hit and the next run shows a fish storm some model runs are going show a good size severe weather outbreak on one run and not as impressive of an outbreak on the next run. This front coming through early next week as were talking about this on Thursday afternoon looks to be a pretty strong front for the time of year.

    1. JJ, yes for sure and that will contribute to the lift.

      We’ll just keep monitoring the runs and see what shakes out. 😀

    1. Yes, that front that passed through this morning keeps rippling, sending cloudiness up this way. Any precip “should” stay away.

  22. Were several days away and this will change but here is the NWS out of Taunton take on Tuesday
    TUESDAY…WITH THIS RUN OF MODEL GUIDANCE TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
    GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW IN THE
    GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND YIELDS AN EXCELLENT SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
    NORTHEAST INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL…AND TORNADOES.
    THIS HAS LED THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO ALSO INDICATE THE
    POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
    POINT…MUCH DEPENDS ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE FRONT
    AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER. PINPOINTING WHERE THESE STORMS
    MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT
    SUFFICE IT TO SAY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

    1. Thanks JJ. Interesting that they actually mention TORNADOES

      That is pretty strong wording, BUT is it RESPONSIBLE putting this out
      there a FULL FIVE (5) Days ahead of the event??? Me thinks NOT!

      That is like saying there could be a BLIZZARD 5 days out in the Winter.
      We would take them to task for that.

      I think simply mentioning that there “could” be severe weather on Tuesday
      would be MORE than sufficient at this point.

      The wording they used is going to scare the crap out of people!!!

      Thoughts?

  23. Do you want to know WHY there is the chance of a severe weather outbreak on Tuesday?

    Here’s why. It has NOTHING to do with meteorology. It has to do with the fact that I’m going to an outdoor concert in Boston. That is the reason. 😛

    1. You use the same logic I use. 😀

      OK, who is performing and where? Inquiring minds want to know. 😀

      1. Sara Bareilles at the venue formerly known as Harborlights, under the tent by the water. 🙂

          2. 😀

            Been a fan since long before the current album. Many people know her from this one because it threw her into the mainstream, etc.

            She puts on a very fun live show. And she is a true singer/songwriter, basically born in the wrong decade. She’d have been perfect in the Carole King era. But I’m kinda glad she is where she is. Fresh stuff, real music, real talent.

        2. I dated her for a while but decided she wasn’t my time. She sang in the shower to much.

  24. Pete is already advertising a major soaker for next Monday-Wednesday…all three days total washouts??

  25. The medium range models are starting to remind me of the winter pattern a little. 😉

    How ironic.

  26. Oh BOY! It begins

    18Z GFS instability parameters for 2PM Tuesday

    CAPE 3000-4000 Joules

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=096&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=096&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Lifted Index -8 to -10 or so

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=096&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=096&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI to 3

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=096&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=096&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    It will be interesting to see how these parameters fluctuate. 😀

  28. I had lunch outside again today. 🙂 The only problem was the bees/wasps/black loud buzzing, stinging menaces flying around me once in a while. Other than that, all was grand. 😀 My salad and my sun was *my* “good edge”. 😉

  29. Warm night here tonight. Heading to vineyard first thing tomorrow, trying to give my son a good. 12 days.

  30. Also, Vicki, for the record, TK and I ended up sharing orange sherbet & vanilla soft serve yesterday, as we discussed in the the previous blog. 😉 And it was SO GOOD.

  31. Good morning. Once again things have changed, of course.
    With those scare tactics by the NWS, shame on them.
    Hey, even Eric Fisher last night said we have to wave the flag at the severe
    potential for Monday/Tuesday. He even displayed the SPC graphich of the severe
    threat.

    NOW the LATEST from the SPC has REMOVED that threat for our area,
    while keeping it in place to our SW and perhaps shifting some more to the SW.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

    We shall see IF that changes once again with later updates.

    1. Latest from Taunton NWS. They still mention Severe possibility, but have
      they EVER BACKED OFF!! What that posted yesterday afternoon was
      completely IRRESPONSIBLE!!!!! This morning’s post is more realistic.

      TK, thanks for talking to them! 😀

      STRONG JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH AT
      LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY INCREASES THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MON AND TUE. IN ADDITION THE DEEP S-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BACK BUILDING STORMS AND TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA.
      THUS A RISK OF FLASHING FLOODING.

      1. The Upton office does NOT even mention the word Severe.

        Too much SENSATIONALISM going on around these parts!
        It has to STOP!!!! 👿 😈

  33. Hey John, enjoy the Vineyard! I could be wrong but i heard the Obamas are there on vacation? Ive heard its tough on locals and other vacationers when they are there, a lot of the island shuts down, i hope i am wrong!

    1. JJ did you see the 0Z instability parameters I posted late last night.
      OFF THE CHARTS! ARMAGEDDON for SURE.

      Now the runs have totally and completely backed off.

      I can’t stand this extreme variability. We basically know NOTHING
      until the day of the event!!!!

      BUT it looks like the severe weather will be shunted South and West.

      We shall see if it changes once again. 😀

  35. Old Salty I think this is how its going to be until the day prior or day of the event. One set of model runs there going to be cooking up a big severe weather outbreak next model run not as big a severe weather threat or hardly any at all.
    I still think there could be strong to possibly severe storms here sometime early next week but I think the bigger severe weather event COULD be in the Mid Atlantic. I am looking at those model runs for Virginia as I will be there next week.

    1. I totally agree JJ.

      The bigger threat “may” end up being the Mid-Atlantic.

      Will you have internet access? Can you keep up-to-date?

      What time are you leaving Monday? Driving?
      From your location, it’s what about a 10 hour drive?

      1. JJ do you know what time the SPC 4-8 day outlook is updated?

        The latest was updated about 5 AM this morning.

        What about the 3 day?

        The 3 day was updated about 3:30 AM this morning.

        Many thanks

  36. I am leaving Monday morning around 6AM stopping to eat at a Friendly’s north of Baltimore and should be in Williamsburg around 3:30 in the afternoon. I am hoping to have internet access down there.
    The SPC won’t issue a new update on the 4-8 day outlook and the day 3 outlook until tomorrow. They only issue those once a day. The day two outlook has two updates one in the wee hours of the morning the next around 1:30 pm. The day one outlook gets update three times first in the wee hours of the morning second around 9AM and third around 12:30pm
    It should be noted just because were not highlighted in the 4-8 day outlook like yesterday does not mean there won’t be severe weather. The SPC just doesn’t feel there is a 30% or greater for severe weather.

    1. Many thanks JJ.

      Again, I agree. But with the fluctuations in the model parameters, it’s impossible to say with any confidence whether there will be severe weather or not.

      My guess is like yours. Some strong storms with a few isolated severe storms, but NOT a widespread severe outbreak. BUT, that could change.

      We’ll have to keep watching.

      One thing for sure, there is a GREATER chance where you’re headed so be
      CAREFUL.

      Will you be hitting BUSH GARDENS?

      Looks like they don’t have the “Big Bad Wolf” coaster anymore.
      That thing was VICIOUS, but I loved it.

  37. I will be visiting Busch Gardens and I miss the Big Bad Wolf. Where the Big Bad Wolf was they have a new indoor outdoor roller coaster called Verboton. My favorite roller coaster there is Loch Ness Monster.
    Will see what the 12z runs have to say about early next week. I do have a feeling either Monday or Tuesday at the very least were going to be in 5% general thunderstorm risk. These models are going to go back and forth. I saw a tweet Yesterday from one of our Meteorologist here in CT Ryan Hanrahan and was saying 0z EURO showing a big boy severe weather outbreak while the GFS was saying not so fast but ended the tweet saying worth watching.

    2. Enjoy!!

      I took a look at the 0Z Euro. I don’t see much around these parts.
      Virginia looks to be smack in the middle of the worst.

      Oh well, what do I know??

    4. Very nice amusement park there, the layout and landscaping and some great rides. Not your typically super hot flat asphalt park, like a Cedar Point (which also has some of the best rides but can be scorching hot in the summer…)

    5. Sounds like tons of fun, JJ. Roller coasters terrify me but it sounds as if you will sure have a great time!

  38. Greetings from Ocracoke Island, on the Outer Banks.

    Sad to see the fire tragedy in Lowell.

    Took some photos of an approaching outflow boundary headed onto the island last evening. Hope to get it on facebook sometime soon.

    The cumulus clouds out here are awesome. The strangest part are the ones that form over the open ocean. They close in on you from the mainland and from out over the gulf stream.

    Last night, I’m guessing it rained 2-3 inches over a 2 hr period. Parts of the campground are under ankle deep water, including one family whose tents had that depth of water in them. I went over to see if they were ok and their attitude was amazingly calm and take it as it comes.

  40. It seems other stations are joining pete with rain starting Sunday. My daughter and SIL are having a bounce house party for grandson here on Sunday PM. Does anyone know what the chance of rain is? She is thinking of moving it to am.

    1. Just my personal thoughts. I think Sunday will be fine in Eastern sections.
      Perhaps not so fine in Western areas. Please stay tuned.

      1. SPC take on Sunday.
        ERNNY/NEW ENGLAND… MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO
        STORM TIMING AND EVOLUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS. REGION WILL LIKELY
        LIE NEAR THE NOSE OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE
        LEADING/DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE CROSSING QUEBEC. MODEST INSTABILITY
        AND ADEQUATE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
        WITH HAIL/WIND…POSSIBLY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY FROM EASTERN
        NEW YORK ACROSS VT/NH. IF GREATER CONFIDENCE IS REALIZED IN LATER
        FORECASTS…SEVERE PROBABILITY OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY NEED
        TO BE INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

  41. Enjoying our last day in Jamaica. Has been sunny and 90 all week with not a drop of rain. Sad to go home :(. We have had a great time with many members of my wife’s family.

        1. It really has been a wonderful and relaxing week which we all needed! Don’t want to come home but know we must :). Now if our plane that arrives at midnight Saturday can be on time :).

  44. I see the chances of showers/storms mon and tues of next week. If we don’t get storms, does that mean we don’t get any rain? Or will there be showers throughout each day with or without storms?

    1. Could be either. The atmosphere is loaded. PWATS of 2 inches
      each day. That is precipitable water, meaning with the right conditions
      that is the top end of how much it could rain. Without the proper conditions,
      ie the trigger to ignite the convection, then the potential is not realized.

      Chances are pretty good we all get at least “some” rain.

      Amounts to be determined. 😀

  45. **CHARLIE**

    Do you know anything about the fireworks in North Attleboro tonight? Worth driving 55 min to see?

    1. Hey TK. I grew up and North Attleboro and have been to these almost every year since I can remember. They are usually one of the better displays in the state. Tonight’s display is more of a teaser though. The main display is always the Saturday night. The Kids Day Carnival there alone is worth the drive. It’s at the Middle School/High School this year for the first time. I’ll be there with the wife and some friends tomorrow night.

    2. Where they held the venue prior to this year I knew all the best spots to see the fireworks, but this year im not sure where they will be set off. My best guess would be the large soccer and field hockey fields behind the High School as it is the furthest away from residential areas.

      1. We love it and will miss them this year. Hoping to go to Kid’s day on Sunday afternoon. This year will be new as far as where the best place to see them is because of the new location. TK would invite you to our driveway to view them if we were home.

  46. Looking at the 12Z GFS instability parameters that just came out,
    the main action is MONDAY. Absolutely NOTHING Sunday and only minimal action
    on Tuesday prior to front clearing the coast.

    Monday is the DAY.

    We shall see what the Euro and CMC say a bit later. 😀

  52. Looking at the 12z GFS CAPE Lift EHI for the Mid Atlantic some pretty impressive values especially the EHI where parts of NJ DE MD and VA in that 2 to 3 territory.
    Going out on a limb I favor the Mid Atlantic for the bigger storms. With that said I still expect a few strong to locally severe storms here and were still days away so this could shift easily.

    1. It looks that way based on the latest guidance, but one never knows what
      changes are in store for us. 😀

  53. This a strong front coming through for this time of year that will be cutting into a humid airmass that will be in place. At the very least would expect some good downpours with the atmosphere loaded with moisture.

  54. Direct quote put out by WBZ weather’s facebook page, “Next Week: Frontal Boundary Flounders Along The Eastern Seaboard Delivering 3-4 Days Of Showers & Storms Here!”

  55. From InAccuWeather, Henry

    As a surge of cool air expands over the Midwest early next week, there is the potential for an outbreak of severe weather and flash flooding in the Northeast spanning multiple days.

    Portions of the Northeast have been the target of severe weather recently and it seems the atmosphere may send more rounds of strong, dangerous and damaging storms through the region, spanning Sunday to Tuesday.

    http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_07111344_hd21.jpg

    LET THE HYPE BEGIN!!!!

    1. For a minute, I thought Henry was going to bring out the “Big Daddy” hat. When he does that in mid-July, we’ll know he’s either on something or is losing it.

  56. JR says on his blog:

    Since May 1st there have been 22 weekend days (2 holidays inc.)….of those 22 days, 16 of them have been loaded with sunshine.

    *Since Memorial Day weekend, there have been 15 weekend days, only 3 of them have seen rain (1 since June 1st).

    In all I’d say we have nothing to complain about for spring or summer thus far.

    1. Can’t argue with you there 🙂 Little rain and the heat and humidity have been limited…so far

  58. After looking at the 12Z Euro and the 18Z NAM, I am NOT IMPRESSED at all.

    I keep here all this talk and rumblings, but other than the GFS, I just don’t see it.
    I’ll continue to watch.

    FWIW, the EURO predicts a grand total of 1 inch for Boston from Sunday Night through Wednesday night.

    Euro CAPES up to a maximum of 1500 joules on Both Monday and Tuesday.
    NAM CAPES up to a maximum of 1000 joules on Monday.

    We shall keep monitoring. We shall see.

  59. Wow what an awesome weather day to be on the vineyard . On the boat heading back to woods hole, we had a blast of a day . Last time we brought my son he was in a stroller. Will be tough to go back Wednesday as I could do this all summer long.

    1. Darn I’m sorry coastal. I know you love that area.

      If you have pics would love to see them on FB. I sure hope you have fun despite the weather.

  61. Hazardous Weather Outlook up for the region according to Taunton moderate probability strong to severe storms Monday and Tuesday.

    1. According to the TV mets Tuesday will be the worst with storms lingering on Wednesday. The only consensus agreed upon is that Thursday into next weekend is going to be nice as it has been for weeks now.

      1. That works for me. Family reunion here on Saturday and even though everyone understands it will be only a couple of hours so as not to tire mac it would be so nice to have outside

  62. I’m still not sure how they can be so sure the ‘worst’ storms will be Tuesday.

    After Monday, when nobody had them in the forecast and we ended up with 2 supercells crossing the region, the atmosphere always has tricks up its sleeve and we just can’t pinpoint detail even that general. Chance of showers/storms? Absolutely. Potential for significant activity? Certainly. But there is a chance that storms both Monday AND Wednesday, however scattered, isolated, or general, may be stronger than anything we see on Tuesday. It’s Friday – we have a long way to go to get this narrowed down.

  63. Until we have some model consistency, I don’t know how any met can
    say we’re having 2-3 days of rainy/stormy weather. 18Z GFS has ALL of the bad
    weather on Monday with it clearing up on Tuesday. None of this lingering into
    Thursday Horse Crap.

    Severe weather here? I dunno. Worst of it is Mid-Atlantic area based on latest
    runs. Time for change that’s for sure.

  64. Latest from NWS indicates best chance of any severe weather in Northwestern sections. Gee, there’s a surprise.

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