Pattern Shift

82 Comments

12:37PM

A reconfiguration of the upper level pattern will have a direct impact on the weather here in southern New England starting almost immediately. We have 2 more cooler than normal days for the weekend as the onshore flow continues, but dies off during Sunday as high pressure sinks over the region. This high pressure area will take up residence south of the region next week and as upper level high pressure that has been over Greenland weakens, moves away, and is replaced by upper level low pressure there, this will allow more high pressure ridging in upper levels in the eastern US. This will not be a powerfully strong high, but it will push the jet stream to the north and allow warmer weather. Troughs from the west coming along the jet stream will be weaker and won’t dig into the Northeast as they had been. Also, a tropical system will likely remain offshore of the East Coast as it recurves later in the week. This will also serve to weaken an approaching system from the west so that a hardly noticeable front comes through sometime late in the week, cutting the warm up back briefly before it likely returns again beyond the forecast period… This is a new regime, and it may last a while.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Sun mixed with clouds off the ocean. Highs 66-71 coast, 72-77 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind light NE.

SUNDAY: More sunshine, fewer ocean clouds. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Diminishing NE breeze.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 81.

TUESDAY:  Sunny. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 64. High 86.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 82.

82 thoughts on “Pattern Shift”

  1. And just as I say I’m going to have trouble letting go of this summer, you make it easier 🙂

    Thanks tk

  3. Thanks TK. Heat? WHY NOW?

    So Cristobal is going to pass off shore?

    Probably so. With certainty? Not yet. 😀

  7. Latest 12Z HDFL at 126 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2014082312/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_96L_22.png

    Latest HWRF at 126 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2014082312/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_96L_43.png

    HWRF 259 mb winds at 126 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2014082312/hwrf-p_uv200_96L_43.png

    2 comments:

    1. note the differences in position and intensity between these 2 hurricane models
    2. Note the 250MB winds with the HWRF. Not hard to imagine that next trough
    picking this up and propelling it dangerously close to our area. OF course, the trough
    could hold back allowing it to turn OTS South of us. CLOSE.

  8. We have an official Tropical Depression now, soon to be Cristobal:

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
    500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

    The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
    disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined
    circulation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation
    is somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the
    system as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based
    on flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT
    pass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent
    surface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The
    SHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the
    next couple of days, which should allow for intensification given
    that the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC
    forecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as
    the cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper-
    level winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow
    for strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast
    is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.

      1. Well hmmmmm that cone is rather close to the east coast.

        We hav friends flying Logan to Paris Friday late. Is there any chance christobal could interfere. Also, would the volcano Iceland tend to interfere? I’m thinking the planes would just reroute.

  9. Answer to Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Since June 21st, daylight has decreased by…
    A. 45 minutes
    B. 65 minutes
    C. 85 minutes
    D. 105 minutes

    The answer is D, 105 minutes.

    Answer to Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Boston’s greatest 24 hour rainfall occured during …

    A. Hurricane Bob
    B. Hurricane Carol
    C. Hurricane Diane
    D. Hurricane Kerry

    The answer is C, Diane.

    1. Thanks longshot. I am clearly going to have to take these more seriously. It’s been an interesting week so I counter it with being silly.

      Did you say you are hiking mt washington? When?

  10. I’m liking the thoughts, let’s hope it last into Dec and then just a little snow for Christmas, then hoping for above normal temps again : ) again I like the new thoughts of warm long term 🙂

    2. I don’t think it means going into the winter. Many out there not saying here calling for a very cold winter much worse than last winter.

      1. John our friends that we spent the evening with said they had tons of acorns this year. I thought of you

  11. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Since 1954, how many Atlantic hurricane names have been retired
    A. 18
    B. 38
    C. 58
    D. 78

    Answer later today … off to Mt Washington. I got this one soooo… wrong!

  12. 6.0 (preliminary) earthquake just north of San Francisco today. I’m not hearing a lot of damage reports but it is early. Mac’s brother and family live east of SF in Moraga. Will call them later today.

      1. Thank you OS. Mac will try reaching his brother soon. Too early to Chance waking them as I suspect they were up for a while in night. Hope your friends son is all right.

        2. Hope the family is well out there.

          It was centered about 10 mile NW of American Canyon
          not far from NAPA.

          1. Thank you OS. Seem damage limited closer to napa than San Francisco so suspect family is ok. But I don’t know how people live with these things. A lot stronger stock than I. That’s for sure

            1. OS worst area was about 40 miles north of where they live in Moraga. Moraga is not far from Oakland…slightly northeast. He said it lasted about 5 seconds but was strong enough to waken everyone.

  14. Is the CMC in early detection mode and picking up on something other models are not?

    GEM (CMC – Global Environmental Multiscale Model); 0.24°×0.24° (~25km) forecast grid:

    108 hours:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014082400/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics_19.png

    144 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014082400/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics_25.png

    192 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014082400/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics_33.png

    CMC 240 hours (We have a WINNER!)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014082400/gem_mslp_wind_watl_41.png

  15. If you want my current super early feeling on long range which includes Autumn and Winter, and again this is not an “official” winter forecast as that won’t be until mid November, it goes like this in my head right now (and has been pretty much the same all along)…

    September-October: Above normal temps and precip, but some long dry stretches and short bursts of cool air.
    November-December: Mild and wet but less wet than October, short cold/dry periods.
    January-February: Mild trending cooler, drier than normal.
    Winter overall: LESS harsh than the previous 2.

      1. I did say lack of snow, but I’m leaning milder overall. Not record warm, just not frigid either.

  16. Much nicer weekend than i thought it would be a few days ago. Except for a couple hours of clouds yesterday morning its been awesome

        1. I really like the warmth this time of summer. The sun is less direct during the middle of the day and the evenings cool a bit faster because the sun’s near the horizon by 7pm. Really noticed that last night.

      2. Yea the temps are below normal but as of a few days ago sat was to be dominated by clouds and sunday slow to clear.

  17. My brother lives right in San Francisco. Woke him out of bed. No damage in his area that he knows of. Quite a first time experience with an earthquake. Has also felt several aftershocks since.

    1. From a FB friend visiting in San Fran:

      We’re visiting in SF. Woke us with grandkids ‘ toys rattling in the shelves, but no damage here, luckily,

    2. Glad your brothers is all right. My oldests childhood friend moved to SF a few years ago. They flew back here Friday with their newborn so missed it. Thank heavens

      2. Eastern Pacific, just west of the coast of Mexico.

        I think its destined to head northwest and then north.

        Somewhere down the road, may curve northeast.

        Long before the curve northeast, it would have hit shear and cool sst.

        Its been the system on the GFS that gives the scenario of being a mass of leftover showers west of the California coastline in several days.

  19. Mid to high 80s will feel downright uncomfortable come midweek. Once we get fall temps its tough to go back to summer. I see a “sick day” in my future this week 🙂

  21. With October projected by TK to have above normal temps, it assures us of no early snowfalls. While this winter probably won’t be “harsh”, it won’t be the piece of cake either like in 2011-12 (9.3″ for Logan) and other years prior with October snows.

    1. Wellllllll maybe. The oct a few years back was warm as I recall. And I sat outside on Halloween night in a light long sleeved Tshirt

    2. Philip I would love a repeat of the winter 2011/12 but I doubt we see that again . I really see a cold winter coming up just my gut feeling and also a lot of mets have been saying that lately including tk. I will be starting my research soon on my winter forcast . Keep an eye out for the Syberia snow fall this fall. It was well above last season and that though not alone contributed to the cold winter we experienced .

  22. Hey Tom…Ironically it could end up much warmer the first few weeks of school than the last few weeks of school. Good luck to you trying to pry your students’ heads off of their desks…if you know what I mean. 😉

    I am somewhat surprised that schools don’t have A/C these days. Even most places of worship have them now. I can’t think of too many public buildings in general that don’t.

  23. It seems TK that what you are seeing is typical of this century with a few exceptions. Last year being one. The summer has shifted to fall many times recently. Leaves holding on trees longer. No heavy winter clothes on Halloween, etc Winters milder. Less snow etc.

  24. Thanks TK for your early long range thoughts. I hope you will do this on a regular basis here. I like clues as to what could happen a couple seasons down the road. 🙂

  25. Last night was very fun Vicki. 🙂

    After the concert, as you saw via FB, Emily was able to meet Matt Nathanson. My son and my friend Lynda waited outside the venue while I waited in line with Em for a while. Since I didn’t have a wristband for the meet and greet I had to exit a certain gate and then wait outside (which I knew). But I walked around that side street (same one the tour bus was parked on) for a short while. I even said hi to the guy showing the people where to go upon exit, so I wanted to just get an idea of where to look for Em when she exited so we could meet her. But as I walked away apparently the guy with the light radioed up to the guy at the other end of the road to “keep an eye on that suspicious looking guy with that hat”. I was dressed in mostly black with a backward black baseball cap on. At that moment a state trooper that was with the guy that got the message started walking toward me, but at that moment my son, who was nearby, heard the message and said “I think that’s Dad!” … Turns out it was me and when Lynda noticed she said to the guy “Oh that’s just my friend, waiting for our other friend to come out.” They promptly recalled the cop and then I reached them as Lynda had called me. When I got there the radio crackled “Do you see the suspicious guy?” and the security guy who was now laughing said “Yup, he’s here with me!” .. We all had a nice friendly chat after that while we waited for Em. 🙂 He told us many stories about working that job – amusing.

    1. Who was with Matt? We saw him open for Kelly Clarkson a few years back.
      I believe he is from Lexington if I am not mistaken. 😀

      1. Andrew McMahon (solo but actually started as Jack’s Mannequin and was also with another band before that) was the opener.

        Gavin DeGraw and Matt Nathanson were co-headliners.

        And yes, Matt is from Lexington. 🙂

        1. Saw Gavin DeGraw a few years back in Vegas when
          he was one of the opening acts for Maroon 5. 😀

          Sounds like you had a great time.

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