Power Punch

151 Comments

12:21AM

Right off the bat let me state that even though I expected this storm to pack a bit of a punch, it is a more powerful one than I anticipated. Things have come together just so to make low pressure intensify rapidly just southeast of New England, creating strong, gusty northeast winds and bands of heavy rain including lightning and thunder. As of the writing of this blog entry (about midnight Wednesday night) the storm is peaking and will continue to do so into the early morning hours with additional strong wind gusts and bands of heavy rain including the chance of thunderstorms. Some coastal flooding has occurred with a recent high tide and may repeat again with the late morning high tide Thursday, not severe flooding but significant enough in some areas for some disruptions to travel on coastal roads and minor damage to property. Beach erosion will also be an issue. Scattered power outages mainly from downed trees and tree limbs have been occurring and will continue into the morning. Once the afternoon arrives, things will wind down more steadily with rain becoming more scattered and lighter, and wind slackening slowly. It will take well into Friday for the storm to really start to loosen its grip, as Friday will contain lots of clouds and some risk of additional wet weather. Improvement comes over the weekend, though it will still be fairly breezy with briefly milder weather Saturday and a cooler Sunday. The first half of next week looks fair with a warming trend as high pressure builds in then slips off the coast.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Bands of rain, some heavy to very heavy, including lightning and thunder. Other times just drizzle. Temperatures steady upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NE 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH, strongest along the coast.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Bands of moderate to heavy rain including a chance of thunderstorms with drizzle at other times in the morning, tapering to more scattered areas of light to moderate rain with drizzle as well in the afternoon. Temperatures steady upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing slightly later in the day.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows around 50. Wind N 15-35 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Highs 55-60. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Passing rain shower late. Low 45. High 65.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 55.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 65.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 70.

151 thoughts on “Power Punch”

  1. TK, quite a storm. I knew it would be rainy and windy, but the intensity of both is off the charts relative to anything I saw coming. As I said in the last blog, I feel like I am experiencing a monsoon. It is something I would expect in the summer though summer storms are often quicker hitters than this. Which brings me to my last point … I am also surprised by the duration. Taking an ark to work tomorrow. 🙂

    1. I agree with you, Longshot. Saw a period of distant lightning around 10:20pm, and another with very vivid lightning and loud thunder from 1:30 to now (2:07am). While not frequent, I do notice the strongest instability happens when the wind and rain are also heavy. That’s par for the course, I know, but I am finding this storm fascinating to watch, and I’m thankful we’re finally getting some beneficial rain.

  3. Thanks TK !!

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

    Have to wonder if the +3c sst anomoly right near New England has had any impact on this event ???

    Taken literally, that would imply about an 8F above average sea surface temp.

    If true, thats going to translate to milder than average surface air nearby over the ocean.

    If the storm had a cold pocket of air coming in to energize it, but that cold pocket is coming over milder than usual ocean air, it increases the vertical temp difference in the storm’s atmosphere. That might lead to a slightly stronger low, opportunity for stronger winds, pretty impressive convection last night (cold pocket over above avg ocean surface air and on and on ……)

    I have no idea if this happened, just throwing it out there ………

    1. Do u know if sst is one of the inputs for the various weather models? If not, it should be. If it is, then it didnt work, lol

        1. I am not sure if it is but I guarantee that the warmer water had some impact on rain amounts. Plenty of moisture ready to be picked up and dropped here.

  4. Thanks TK. I mentioned that I was expecting a powerful storm but not as intense as it is or was last night. I also bet this is probably one of the stronger storms we will experience this season. October storms can be powerful due to the clash of seasons, not sure if that had an impact on this one though.

    Good stuff Tom as usual from your perspective.

  5. I was very wrong about this storm. I fell into the impatient trap and leaned on earlier forecasts too much rather than look at what was really going on. This was quite a storm and i hope this type of set-up happens frequently during the winter months

  6. Minutes away from being flooded out…grate is at critical mass. Next step is garage gets flooded and if that keeps up, the basement.

  7. Good morning!! Doesn’t look as bad out as last night, gonna see if anything can be done today,, good day 🙂

  8. I think the northshore has been in quite the heavy band for a while now, and it looks like it keeps going looking at the radar… I don’t have a rain gauge out but it has to be a lot!

  9. My daughter has a average size beach pale and the water was over flowing. I think its safe to shut down the irrigation system for the year 🙂

  11. I guess predicting rain is like predicting snow I guess…first I was an inch…then 1-2…last night I was 2-3…and I woke up to 3-5.

      1. Basement itself is fine for now thanks. Outside grate can’t keep up as it had filtration rock that slows it down a bit. Fine for most rain we get but not this. My system can hold around 5,000 gallons before the pump might go off.

        1. That is good. I still have flashbacks to last March when my pump tried to go on for the very first time and was dead.

  12. Good morning. Several waves of thunder and lightening through here last night. Just under an inch of rain yesterday most of which was after 8:00 pm. 1.83 here since midnight. Shoreline sure did get hit.

  13. We must be very close to the dry slot. The sky has an eerie, Halloween like yellow glow to it.

    Really hope everything is going to be ok the next few hours north of Boston. The radar, combined with the flash flood warnings are a big concern !!

  16. Glad but winds where I am are nonexistent. I thought they were hanging around until tomorrow? Again no complaints.

  17. Still pretty windy here but not like last night. The sun is shining charlie ? Wow.

    Good luck with the basement north and ww.

  18. Good morning. Thanks for all of the posts. Enjoyed reading them all with my
    morning mug of coffee.

    In addition to the Thunder and Lightning at around 10ish last night, I was awakened
    by another round at 12:50 AM. Quite a storm.

    Opened my front door this morning and I had to remove a decent sized branch
    from my walk. Trash and recycle barrels blown over and my boat which was chained
    to the fence also blew over.

    NO problems driving in. No bad puddles and no branches/trees in the way anywhere.

    As of 8AM this morning, it looks like Boston received just a tad over 2.5 inches
    IF I am reading the obs correctly. Anyone have a number?

  20. This is from about 1/2 hour ago from Channel 4:

    Here are the latest rainfall totals from the National Weather Service in Boston and Rob Macedo, the SKYWARN Coordinator for the National Weather Service in Taunton.

    Town Amount
    Natick 3.74″
    Milton 3.29″
    Norwood 3.27”
    Reading 3.02”
    Swampscott 3.01”
    Sharon 3.01″
    Beverly 2.94″
    Topsfield 2.88″
    Norton 2.87″
    Boston 2.79″
    Walpole 2.79″
    Wellesley 2.79″

  22. Poring buckets here again. ANother band just rotated in and we’re just getting into
    the Southern end of it. 😀

  23. My take away from this storm is don’t jump the gun and assume it’s a bust. I think based on Tuesday and early yesterday people thought what storm.

    Anyway pouring buckets here as well.

        1. I doubt the heavy bands until 12, I was indicating still the chance of heavy bands rotating in but not all locations.

  27. Honestly,

    I can see patches of BLUE SKY to the South!! Yet it still rains here.
    On radar, the band is “just” about out of here.

    1. Oh to be sure. I was just using the LATEST run.

      It should come into range for the 12Z Euro and CMC.
      What do you think? I say it doesn’t SHOW on those runs, making
      this a typical GFS PHANTOM storm. 😆

      We shall see.

    1. My guess would be that the heavy stuff is KAPUT! Like you said, there
      still may be lingering showers at times through tomorrow. 😀

    1. Interesting when considering all early forecast and model runs indicated
      MUCH MORE rain up North. To be fair, it’s still ongoing up there and they
      may yet surpass the SNE totals. We shall see.

      Pretty impressive none-the-less

    2. and …… how many times in the biggest winter snow storms, do those 2 areas showing in red also seem to have the biggest snow amounts. Uncanny similarities !!

        1. Hear about the farm (my yard and where you go)? I guess they sold it to a developer…something like 38 houses being built. Shame…farmland is so nice. No more deers and turkeys I guess.

  37. Hmmm

    Getting very dark again. Totally socked in with clouds. Don’t see anything on radar, just yet. Some bands rotating in down by the Cape.

  41. Just went on Mt. Washington’s site to see what their cam was showing for the observation deck.

    I think they’ve been reporting rain for several, several hours now …..

    I don’t know, but it doesn’t look like rain to me. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  42. Keith you had said last night that it was an eerie thunder. My daughter said that in Uxbridge around 11:30 they had the deepest and loudest thunder roll she had ever heard. It wakened them and they said their initial thought was an explosion of some type as it did not sound like thunder. She said the same odd type of thunder continued – just not as loud.

    Wonder why the thunder was so different.

    1. Positive polarity lightning originating near the cloud tops. Bolts, whether cloud to ground or intracloud, are very long in length and more powerful than their negative polarity cousins. That accounts for the long lasting rolls and deep bottom-outs (house-rattlers).

      1. Thanks, TK. I will pass on to my daughter. My younger daughter reminded me that we had something similar in a recent storm. I’d forgotten. I also noticed that here there was very little loud thunder compared to quite vivid lightening.

  43. Wonder if any of the showers out west or up north pull back through as the storm eventually drifts away? See a few more shows headed in from the ocean.

        1. Virtually ALL GFS storms out more than 10 days have a history of going poof and NEVER verifying. Having said that, watch it come back. 😀

  46. non stop drizzle with on and off heavy rain. with some wind but not as bad as last night. most of the leaves have fallen around my house, possible raking weekend
    Temperature been in the upper 40s and low 50s.

    The gfs better be sick because i do not want early snow i remember the last time it happened and it looks similar in nature. I rather wait for the snow till later in novemeber and december to get average snow or better 😉

    1. Yup, its like that final 2-4 inch thump of snow as the upper low slowly moves away. 🙂

      Of course, at least in Marshfield, by then, there’s usually a foot of cement on the ground coming after 2 inches of rain. 🙂

  50. As OS noted, we’re not done yet.

    Not as prolific as last night/early morning, but some pockets of moderate to heavy rain over the next few hours especially eastern MA, may work into parts of southern NH and northern RI as well.

  51. ALOMST here and it seems to be getting MORE intense as it approaches.
    Going to be COLOSSAL downpours!!!!

    1. ahh colossal was a bit of an over statement. Looked worse before
      it came in. BUT it is still pretty heavy rain.

      1. You are a magician – rain just started and wind picked up slightly!! I’m at point where I couldn’t look at radar

  56. Eric Fisher posted picture to FB about very cold shot coming in around Halloween and potential Storm. Would not give an details of course but to keep an eye out.

    2. We shall see. Only a Lakes Cutter appears on the 12Z runs right now.
      Plenty of time for things to change.

    1. Even Mac who is not really into weather commented this morning on how much snow it would have produced.

  63. If this storm occurred during mid Winter we very likely would have seen about half the amount of moisture. If it occurred during early Winter most of eastern MA out to Worcester would have changed to rain.

    1. Half the moisture still would have s size able storm. Can I ask why half the moisture ? Water temps? Early winter I agree a changeover would have happened but there was a 1032 high.

  64. Halloween is 8 days away.
    Too early for detailed analysis. Basically any range of possibilities is on the table at this point. Generalizations work, specifics do not.

  65. Endicott experienced flooding and lost power. Closed today! Of course, it doesn’t effect me because I am doing my internship this semester…but I do go in on Fridays. I wonder if the power is back yet. I hope it is because I actually WANT to go to school tomorrow haha. Despite the fact I think I am developing a cold…the classic knives in the throat. I blame the rain. Actually, speaking of that, this may be a silly question…but why DOES the rain/crappy weather weaken one’s immune system? How does that work?

    1. Basically being out in cold and/or damp weather enough to cause enough stress to your body (everyone’s level is different) can compromise your immune system enough to decrease your chance of being able to fight off a viral or bacterial infection.

      But getting cold or wet outside does not make you sick by itself. You need to be exposed to and pick up a pathogen.

  68. OS you are basically keeping track of precip for multiple sources. You check it once a day at roughly 7 AM and report the amount to them.

      1. I googles cocorahas and found a link and I believe there is an app. Didn’t have time to look further but will. Sounds interesting

      2. Google and it will tell you about it. You basically are a precip spotter for them. They have a link you go on and enter your id # and then the precip for the past 24hrs.

    1. It was more than talk. The drought conditions were and still somewhat are reality. As as senior agricultural meteorologist, I have been dealing with forecasting long term wet/dry spells worldwide for over 20 years, and it usually takes quite a bit of time to erase a drought.

      So while this substantial event helps make up a whole lot of deficit, an amount of it ran off and was not absorbed due to excessive foliage on the ground. A 4 inch rainstorm in this case may only have the benefit of a 2 inch rainstorm.

      My guess: Drought is reduced, not over, and will not be over for a long time, as it looks like we’re going to be heading back toward a drier regime very soon.

  71. As of late this afternoon, Logan has a -1.71″ deficit. My guess is that there will still be at least a -1.00″ deficit when this storm is finally over tomorrow morning.

  72. TK – You mentioned that if this was mid-winter, there would have been half the moisture…are your referring to the fluff factor?

    You also mentioned that if this was early winter, there would have been a changeover to rain all the way out to Worcester. During most of the storm, the howling winds were from the due north, so wouldn’t it have been mostly snow even in Boston and the immediate South Shore?

    1. They key answer to the mid-Winter & early-Winter questions is water temperature.

      As far as wind, the strongest were northeasterly enough that most set-ups like this in December would have resulted in a changeover had the water temperatures been running the same relative mildness that they are now.

      January would have had colder SST’s and therefore likely less mix/change, at least inland.

      1. Spot on about the winds TK. I checked a few stations during the height of the storm and most of the time the winds were NE if not ENE.

  73. The winter following the October 1996 storm (which cancelled the Regatta), Logan had 51.9″ of snow…a correlation perhaps?? Hmmm.

    1. No correlation can be drawn from one storm, but possibly can be from a longer term pattern. Also, events before the end of October are weaker when it comes to use in Winter prediction/correlation than those events that occur in late October and especially November.

    1. Most of the colorful trees (the early turning maples and trees similar to that) have lost a lot of their leaves. The leaves that go later in Autumn are usually the darker golds/browns (the rustic colors). So taking that into account, we have seen the most colorful part of the foliage season here already and most of it blew off the trees in the last 2 days.

  76. This thingwon’t quit! As of 6:00am I have received 4.80″ this week putting my monthly total over 8″ for the month!

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