Forecast Update

124 Comments

7:33AM

This is a forecast update only. The discussion is largely the same other than slightly slower timing. Full discussion and another update later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 57.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 38. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 32. High 40.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

124 thoughts on “Forecast Update”

  2. What is most likely to happen ….

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAQQjBw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.shane-holden.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F01%2Fdalton-snow-1-20-2009-2.jpg&ei=joBPVIKAC6LasASxhoB4&bvm=bv.77880786,d.cWc&psig=AFQjCNH9FCubzdVUqnpLQCYh56oBMcPoxA&ust=1414582790432538

    What, I think, a few people think or want to happen …

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCMQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kimmirutweather.com%2F&ei=UIBPVIfmKpTdsATrwYLoAQ&usg=AFQjCNEEBxNs5jgCAh6ZXGMYOXE37bETkQ&bvm=bv.77880786,d.cWc

  4. NWS out of Upton, NY take on POTENTIAL weekend storm
    CIPS ANALOG BASED OFF THE GFS INDICATES LOW IMPACT WITH SNOW
    ACCUMULATIONS RELEGATED TO N AND W OF THE CWA…MAINLY IN THE SNOW
    BELT. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES HOWEVER…ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
    MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST.

  6. NWS out of Grey, ME …. ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EAST COAST STORM TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH. ONE THING MODELS ALL AGREE ON IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LATEST EURO CLOSES OFF THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS STRONG JET DIGGING SEWD
    FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE LIFTING IT NEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF
    MAINE FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, OTHER MODELS KEEP TROUGH MORE OPEN, PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N.

    THE PROBLEM MODELS ARE HAVING IS TRYING
    TO PHASE TWO SEPARATE STRONG S/WAVES THAT BOTH PACK A LOT OF
    ENERGY. TIMING OF ENDING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT
    SO HEDGED FOR NOW AND RAISED POPS AND HAD TO STRONGLY CONSIDER
    EURO SOLUTION. EURO WOULD KEEP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GOING
    THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE CLEARING FOR SUNDAY DUE TO ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

    ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONSIDERING DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD LOW LEVEL DRAINAGE OCCURRING INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. HAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT CHANGE TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT ARE UP IN THE AIR SINCE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM STILL UNCERTAIN.

    FOR GUIDANCE, STARTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND BUT HAD TO MAKE
    SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD TO REFLECT THE
    POTENTIAL FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON.

  7. Only in New England could you go from 70 to a few days later some seeing the first flakes of the season.
    I think when all said and done for the weekend parts of the interior will see their first flakes of the season.

    1. Not only in New England. Happens in places like Denver, Flagstaff, Salt Lake City and Chicago for that matter among others. 😀

    1. Indeed. TK will poo poo that as soon as he gets a chance.
      He’s like the Grinch that stole Christmas!!! 😆 😆

      But seriously, most outcomes are STILL on the table, including a possible
      very early season SNOW storm. Could be a miss, could be a combo situation.
      ANYTHING is possible at this point.

      What I FIND MOST INTERESTING is that the GRAY, ME NWS office
      is LEANING ON THE EURO!!!

      What does this mean????

      Is Euro KING again? OR are they foolishly hanging their hats on the Euro.

      No matter what happens, it’s fun to watch this baby evolve. 😀

      1. Or as Pete said… (paraphrased) “you’ll see all the weather people going nuts this week because everyone wants to call the first event”.

        1. Agreed. This is the first BIG test for this year’s version
          of the EURO.

          Let’s see how good it is OR isn’t!!

          1. Euro supporters will say if it flips to the correct scenario by thursday or friday than it is still king and did its job.

  10. A portion of Eric Fisher’s blog:

    I have high confidence that a coastal storm will develop Saturday into Sunday. We’re looking at a potent short-wave which may phase up with some southern stream energy and meet along the coast. At the moment, I think models are under-doing the strength of this future coastal low, and probably sending it a little too far east. Considering the impressive height anomalies involved, vigorous mid-level energy, and WAY above average sea surface temperatures off our Atlantic coast…I think it would be hard for a strong storm *not* to form. So we’ll have that on our hands, the question is how close?

      1. Make sure you bring your shovel. 🙂 I hope you are able to do something fun while you are here. I am heading down to Sandwich for a 5:00 football game for my son. I guess we better dress warm and bring our umbrella!

  11. Just awhile ago from the Taunton NWS office.

    28/00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO DIFFER
    SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE REST OF THE 28/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE…

    WE THINK IT WISE TO NOT DISMISS THE ECMWF-BASED
    SOLUTIONS ENTIRELY…

    OVERALL AGREEMENT ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. IT IS ALSO
    POSSIBLE THE OFFSHORE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SO FAR OUT TO
    SEA…SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WINDS UP IN THE DRIER AIR…WITH LITTLE
    TO NO PRECIPITATION.

    Taunton office CLEARLY in the TK camp, in fact, I think TK wrote their forecast as he spent the whole night with them. 😀 😀 😀

  12. mid – upper 60s with 50+ dewpoints in western NY State.

    Tonight is going to be one really warm late October overnight.

  13. A question to ask is if the euro op and its ensemble mean agrees with itself. That would be the only reason to dismiss it

  14. I don’t know if anyone remembers ….. but the day after NEMO, I proposed the first ever WHW Constitutional Amendment to ban the GFS from use here. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Well, if someone doesn’t see snow next weekend in New England, considering the EURO runs already seen this week ……….I’d like to nominate it (EURO) for future banishment.

    Then, going forward, we’ll just have to look out the window, study the clouds, wind direction and barometric pressure trends and try to figure out from those what is coming.

    Seriously though, in some sense, our increased technologies, I think, provide TOO much information that doesn’t necessarily make for better future forecasts.

    1. 100% agree with u Tom. Although, i will say, each model has its strengths and biases. If we could combine technologies and take the goods from each model and put it into one super functioning model, i wonder if we would be better off?

      1. What a Novel Idea.

        Imagine taking the output of the big three and closer in,
        add the NAM as well. Put them in the pot, stir them up
        and VIOLA!! Not sure what kind of algorithms one would use.
        Pretty damn complicated, but I LOVE the idea.

        Great thought.

        1. It would save the massive popsicle headache of trying to determine which model was right, blending the outcomes, dealing with outliers, etc. Huge time saver.

    2. Tom, please excuse me, but what the bleepity bleep bleep is/was
      NEMO???????????????????????????????

      I do NOT recognize the Weather Channel names for Winter storms
      and NEVER will. 😆 😈

      1. The winter storm a couple years ago in early February.

        It had that crazy snow band in CT that dropped 5 inches per hour, it had a wide swath of 1ft + snow across a good chunk of New England and it had big time tree damage in coastal SE Mass due to heavy wet snow and strong winds.

        Marshfield had the National Guard come in, we lost 5 school days, power was out 3-5 days in town.

        Say NEMO down here and everyone knows that storm.

        Just N and W of coastal SE Mass, it probably is not as memorable as it was just a big snowstorm.

  15. According to Alan Huffman, the 00Z euro op run is an outlier, for now. Ens mean was weaker and further OTS

    1. 0Z Euro ensemble mean at 120 hours:

      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2014102800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

      at 144 hours

      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2014102800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

      I would say one thing about this.

      I think the ensemble mean is on board.

      In the past when I look at this, NO MATTER WHAT the situation is,
      the Euro Ensemble Mean is ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS weaker than
      the operational run. I have NEVER NEVER NEVER EVER seen it as
      strong. NEVER.

      Therefore, I think any mention of that is a BUNCH of HOOEY!!!!

      Now, that being said, it does NOT mean that the operational run is
      on target, as that could be a pile of Horse Shit. Who knows.

      1. Its not as amplified and doesn’t develop the low along the Carolina coast like the op run. Not as much digging in the jet stream

  16. I throw this out as ANOTHER possible COMPLICATION to the whole forecast
    AND that is the TROPICAL connection.

    Consider these CMC runs:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014102800/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics_17.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014102800/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics_18.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014102800/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics_19.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014102800/gem_mslp_wind_atltropics_20.png

    Keeps any development WAY off shore as if the Trpical system were tugging
    it into itself.

    1. Hmm, interesting obs. I saw this morning we may have tropical development moving in that direction at the same time. Remember, the CMC has consistently had tropical systems much stronger than they turned out

  17. Geez guys it’s a beautiful day today, I see any serious snow has disappeared, poof!! I know I’ve already said this but I’ll say it again, next week looks mild 🙂

          1. Niiiice. Grass seed question for you. Is it possible to put grass seed down now and have it grow in the spring? Will the seed survive all winter?

            1. You will receive less results than if it was established, all u need is for the seedling to germinate to get best results 🙂

  20. FWIW, the NAM really digs that trough out along the east coast, more amped than the GFS and others not on board with snow for coastal sections. Not totally in range yet, but we can start looking at the NAM for trends.

    1. You beat me to it. I was just looking at the 12Z NAM.

      Hard to totally figure what it wants to do, but that trough
      is fairly well amplified.

      Here is the surface at 84 hours:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141028+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=area

      500 MB vorticity

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141028+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=area

      Here is the 925MB temperature and Height chart.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_925_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141028+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

      I believe this would indicate main storm development
      to be about 100-150 miles due East of NC.

      It would ONLY get close enough IF the 500MB trough deepens more or
      even goes negative.

      I’m NOT sure the NAM is on board with the EURO.

      Hmmm, please allow me to take that back.

      Here is the EURO for 0Z Saturday, same time as 12Z Euro at 84 hours.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014102800&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=096

      Euro has initial storm development more SE of NC and bit farther off shore,
      YET still brings it up here.

      Hmmm

      This is getting mighty interesting.

      1. Im glad your having fun but in the end I believe you will be let down, but keep tracking as thats part of the fun.

        1. You can’t say that John, you have no scientific evidence to back that up. You don’t even know how to obtain the information let alone process it.

              1. Just remind you to view your comment in a polite and civil way as everybody gets along here and Tk himself said no more crap from anybody. We will see regarding Saturday but around these parts Boston/ our area not going to happen.

                2. With all due respect, John or anyone else has the right to say what John said. It doesn’t, in my opinion, matter how he arrived at it and I don’t think its anyone’s right to make a judgment on it.

                3. Tom, I could not disagree with you anymore. I believe this blog loses it’s credibility if we have people guessing at forecasts / outcomes with no scientific support, just what suites there agenda. To me it lessens the experience this blog provides. There are a lot of people here that don’t understand some of the issues being discussed so they ask questions. That is what makes this place great. A terrific tool to learn about the weather and its free. It’s comments like John’s above that should be posted on blogs similar to BZ or the facebook weather groupies.

                4. And I understand that Coastal, but, I’ve got to tell you that a majority of what I blog on here is really nothing more than a guess. Seriously … in spite of the idea that I have some experience in meteorology. I just think its ok for all type of opinions (high met knowledge, moderate or low). I think that the bloggers and readers probably have an idea of where everyone kind of is and also, that our accuracy will take care of itself against what will happen. As always though, I shall respect your viewpoint.

  22. Thanks Tom . For a second there I thought he changed his ways. Tk can you please remind coastal to keep it to himself If he can’t handle opinions of people here. I still say no snow coastal and guess what I’m guessing .

  26. Wow, I leave for a few hours and all hell breaks loose. 😈

    I don’t get it? I don’t care if someone guesses or wishes or uses science. Doesn’t matter to me. I enjoy it all regardless. 😀

    Speaking of that, what gives with the CMC. Looks like a mostly OTS scenario:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014102812/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png

    GFS has one system eject OTS and develops a hang back low, which ALSO ejects
    OTS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.png

    So WILL the EURO follow suit? OR remain the OUTLIER? Stay tuned.

    1. I feel the same way and was trying to say that. You said it in few words, whereas I wrote a huge paragraph. As my wife always says to me, I talk too much !!! 🙂

      1. Tom I will respectfully disagree with you. You do not talk half as much as I do 🙂 That said, I understand what Coastal is saying and know Coastal to be an incredibly fine person. I will say the very same with regard to John. However, and with all due respect, Coastal, I don’t think we can censor comments as it would make this blog a place I am not sure many would want to be. In truth, if those have to stop commenting unless they have knowledge, I’d say I am one of the first who has to go. I, for one, would hate to lose my WHW family. I really believe that it is the many different levels of knowledge here that add to the great blog we have.

  31. Hadi, the NWS discussion out of Grey earlier today mentioned the models are all way too warm and dynamic cooling would be in play along with cold low level drainage from the flow around the low

    …ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONSIDERING DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD LOW LEVEL DRAINAGE OCCURRING INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. HAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT CHANGE TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT ARE UP IN THE AIR SINCE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM STILL UNCERTAIN….

  32. I notice that Euro is significantly warmer this run.
    NO SNOW for Boston.

    So we can probably kiss it good-bye. 😀

      2. That’s better.

        Yup would have to SNOW hard and for awhile to overcome
        that. BUT I’ve been around here a long time. I can tell you
        that a bout of Heavy SNOE can overcome almost anything, even
        those times when Mets flat out say NO ACCUMULATION
        on the roads because it’s been too warm. Bullshit! It STILL
        accumulates!

  35. What’s this? A bit of a change from Taunton NWS?????

    SATURDAY-SUNDAY… AS NOTED ABOVE…UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING. THE DEEP DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND NEAR-SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A CLOSE-TO-THE-COAST TRACK A LA THE ECMWF . BUT WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN LAST NIGHT THE TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE IS STILL A POSSIBLE.

    1. Changed discussion from Gray Maine, NWS:

      THE 12Z EURO…AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 12Z GLOBAL CMC DO PHASE THE 500MB WAVES…BUT BOTH ARE DO IT FURTHER S THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND A LITTLE BIT LATER. SO THE LOW INTENSIFIES SAT NIGHT AND TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY…BUT COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF A LITTLE LONGER. STILL BOTH THESE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW…WHERE THE BEST CHC WOULD BE EASTERN ZONES
      ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER…WE ARE STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT…SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO FINE TUNING ANY AREA THAT COULD GET ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SUNDAY OR ANY AMOUNTS…BUT THE HTREAT OF ACCUMULATING
      REMAINS…ESPECIALLY FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

      1. And to complete this, Upton NY NWS changed discussion:

        THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN
        IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS
        MEMBERS…BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS
        ON SATURDAY…BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR…AND POSSIBLY A
        RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT…
        SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN
        SATURDAY…BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

  37. A friendly reminder:

    People are free to comment what they want to, provided they do not violate the guidelines posted on the “about” page.

    Comment are from both meteorologists and non meteorologists, but the readers know that my thoughts in the post are coming from a meteorologist, regardless of who posts in the comments. And of course anybody can ask questions if they are not sure.

    That is all.

    New blog will be posted early this evening.

  38. 18Z NAM 500MB at 84 hours or 6Z Sat.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014102818/nam_z500_vort_neus_29.png

    That baby is tightning up big time.

    Surface

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014102818/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png

    850 MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014102818/nam_T850_neus_29.png

    This is just barely beginning to get going at this point.

    250 mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014102818/nam_uv250_neus_29.png

    This is also tightening up.

    This in combo with 500MB without any more curvature would take it outside
    of the benchmark, however, if it continues to DIG like NWS says it should, then
    it could pass over the benchmark or even inside of it.

    Looking forward to the 0Z run of this model to see what we get.

    1. Of course they have to pull out that photo, just to make sure the story, which has some legitimately good quotes by Alan Dunham, will be taken completely incorrectly.

      Nice job again, media. You get a big F.
      I’d give you an F- if I could.

  40. Of course, as NWS says, this needs to be monitored and there is potential for mix/snow in some locations, depending on eventual location of development, strength, and movement of not only surface but upper air features.

    There are going to be several mitigating factors at work against early significant snow, including…
    -An upper low that closes off briefly to the southwest of New England then opens up near the coast and swings more east than up into the region. Where’s the really cold air aloft going to come from? That’s right, there won’t be all that much. Strike one.
    -East, even northeast winds, coming off the ocean in early November. Not conducive to snow at the surface. Eventually they go to north, AFTER the main precipitation is gone. Strike two.
    -Boundary layer: Too warm. Strike three.
    Good thing this isn’t baseball, but you’re still running out of pitches if you want a snowstorm. 😉

    Be careful of model snowfall forecasts: Temperatures of boundary layer and surface are not factored in. Translation: Don’t bother even looking at these forecasts. Waste of time.

    1. The media has opened a can of worms, here’s comes the snow lol!! It’ll be a flake and end up a nonevent other than a few people saying I saw it snowing, we shall see, do they need to really broadcast it do they? I mean r we talking about dangerous situation? This is why I do not watch, anyways 🙂

      1. A lot of it is a ratings game.
        Some of it is excitement because it’s the first threat.
        There is also a general trend toward impatience in people these days. Everything has to be rushed, including detailed forecasts more than 3 days in advance.

      2. I want to see that face he has when he’s not happy. That face means we’re winning by ten and he’s got two picks. One can dream.

  43. what’s all this hubbub on snow.

    wish is were but it ain’t gonna be. Waaaaaaaaay too early. And you’re talking to someone who shoveled 15″ in October not that long ago.

    I’ll take a few flakes though instead of nothing.

  44. I wonder if the 18z GFS has an accurate portrayal of what may happen ….

    I only say this because, its depiction kind of shows one of those energy transfers off to a developing low far enough out to sea, where, as I believe TK said above, New England ends up right in the middle.

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