Today + The Week Ahead

215 Comments

11:26AM

This post is being done a little earlier than normal because your blog writer is taking a short break between outside errands and decorating and a marathon indoor decorating spree that should have me all ready for my annual 6 week long Christmas display beginning on Monday December 1, which is tomorrow!

Now that we got that straight, let’s move onto today, the final day of the Thanksgiving Weekend. Warm air is moving in, but an inversion at low levels has caused a variable blanket of cloudiness, which has thinning and retreated at times to allow more sun, especially in southern and eastern MA and RI. We’ll be in and out of clouds and sun across southeastern New England this afternoon though sun should end up dominant as the inversion is finally erased by advancing mild air. Though a little sloppy underfoot where snow/ice are still on the ground and melting, not a bad day to be outside for any of the various reasons people may have to be out there today.

Now to the coming week. Yes the milder pattern we have been speaking of for the first third of December is getting underway, but this does not mean every day will be mild. It’s an overall milder pattern, relative to normal, than the one we saw for the majority of November. A Pacific jet stream will be dominant, but with plenty of cold air sitting across Canada, disturbances moving along the jet stream, while passing mostly north of southeastern New England, will be able to grab pieces of the cold air and toss it southward as they depart. This will result in quick cold shots behind these systems (Tuesday and Thursday of this coming week will feature those cold shots). Preceding the Tuesday cold shot will be a cold front passing by Monday pushing into mild air, bringing some cloudiness and a rain shower threat. A warm front will approach Tuesday night and may bring some light icy precipitation, but mild air will be quick on its heels for Wednesday, which will feature a chance of rain showers. By later Friday, another warm front will approach after the second cold shot, and there is some uncertainty as to how this sets up as we head into next weekend. We may be dealing with some unsettled weather which may include a variety of precipitation by next weekend as there will be a tendency for low pressure trying to form to the south while a cold high pressure area retreats a little bit to the north of the region. This part of the forecast is low confidence, and subject to much revision, so don’t give it much weight at this time.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
THIS AFTERNOON…Most clouds northwest of Boston, most sun to the southeast. Highs 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57 through midday, then cooling back to the 40s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH shifting to W.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s except around 30 urban areas and Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Early mix, then rain showers. Low 30. High 50.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 25. High 45.
WEEKEND: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.

215 thoughts on “Today + The Week Ahead”

    1. I plan on it. 🙂
      I’m working til 2PM December 1-5, 8-12, and 15-19, have all the other days of the month off. I take Mom on errands when she has them usually around 3PM a few times a week leading to the holiday. Many days around 4PM my son and I will take a walk around the area. I play Christmas music any chance I get between all I own myself, the few radio stations that play it, and MusicChoice online (which is pretty cool and plays nice and crisp in my computer speakers). Then there are all the DVD’s I own. How many people own at least 12 versions of A Christmas Carol just to start with? And I have most of the classic specials, and a bunch of lesser known gems. My favorite time of year. 🙂

      1. Reading just makes me smile. It is an amazingly magical time of year, isn’t it. And seems you also still hear the bell :).

        Daughter is putting up outside lights now. I’m near finished inside except for the North Pole village. It may wait until tomorrow as today is perfect for outside.

        Love the time you spend helping your mom and the walks with your son….it is truly what it is all about 🙂

  7. Repost from previous blog.

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the term for wisps or streaks of precipitation such as water, ice or particles that fall from clouds, but evaporate before reaching the ground?
    A. Rain funnels
    B. Fog rays
    C. Virga
    D. Cirrus

    Answer later today.

  10. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the term for wisps or streaks of precipitation such as water, ice or particles that fall from clouds, but evaporate before reaching the ground?
    A. Rain funnels
    B. Fog rays
    C. Virga
    D. Cirrus

    The answer is C. I think everyone got it right!

    1. Thank you Longshot. My seven year old grandson said cirrus but I thought for seven he was darned close …he calls cirrus whispy clouds

  13. Extremely entertaining game! I was getting bored with the Pats blowing everyone out. This game is like watching 2 heavy weights exchanging punches. Last one standing wins

  16. All I can say is that the Pats ran into a SUPERIOR TEAM today.

    That’s a wrap. Go get em in the Super Bowl, but you had better figure out
    a few things or it WILL be another loss.

    1. That’s better than after their first few games and comments that they wouldn’t be contenders. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  17. No pressure from D-line, dropped balls on offense, guys not running their routes on offense, and not making adjustments on both sides of the ball. Pats weren’t themselves today, but only lost by five….

  18. That definitely looked like a Super Bowl preview. Great game. Pats deserved the loss, they just weren’t good enough. No defense in the first half, and the offense got off to too slow a start. We had to play from behind all day. But I think they could win a rematch in a couple months.

  19. O-line for the Packers was phenomenal. Rodgers is great, but the O-line would have made a lot of QBs look pretty good. He had too much time, and with his accuracy, forget it.

    Patriots need to shake this one off quickly, though. They’re headed into a difficult game. The division has not been won yet. Nor have the Patriots secured home-field advantage.

    1. Too much time, Once it was F….. 12 SECONDS!!!!!!!/b>
      GIMMIE A BREAK. A POP WARNER QB WILL BEAT YOU WITH THAT
      MUCH TIME.

      CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A PASS RUSH??????????????????????

    2. Agree Joshua ……..

      @ San Diego is no walk in the park. They have 2 decent receivers, a good running back and a very competitive QB. Solid defense overall.

      They’ve beaten Seattle at home this year and it can be very, very warm in San Diego in early December.

      1. The Chargers-Ravens was a fun game to watch, by the way. Wow, what a comeback, in Baltimore. I never know what to make of the Chargers. That’s what scares me about them.

        Pats need a healthy Edelman. His possible injury concerns me. They also need some more agility up front on their defense. Watching Wilfork running after Rodgers was comical, but ineffective. I hope Chandler Jones is healthy soon.

  20. Great game. Didn’t win. Won’t win them all. They learn. Not sure why they went on the fourth and then kicked for three but then that is Monday morning quarterbacking on Sunday night …..love being a Pats fan !!!!!

    1. There were some questionable play calls. Agreed. Though I had less of an issue late in the game than I did early on. I thought one series in the 1st quarter was particularly bad. They ran three straight plays for minimal yardage and had to punt. I think it’s fine to run against the Packers. But, you establish your running game with your passing game, and vice versa. It was too predictable in the 1st quarter. I believe that sunk the Patriots, in addition to some sloppy defense with a minute to go in the 1st half. That Packers TD never should have happened.

      1. Agree. Play calls haunted them first part of season. But then who am I. I enjoyed the game but of course would have been a whole heck of a lot happier had they won

      2. Questionable calls???

        It reminded me of the old Bledsoe days.
        2 runs nowhere, 1 incomplete pass, PUNT!!!!

        I was going to VOMIT!!!!!

        The Patriots Vaunted Defense! NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

  21. wow, greenbay was by far the better team, Even though there were blown plays by our defense, they were one of the few that kept any team within winning. we only gave up 2 touchdowns to rogers.
    I kind of let myself know that we probably will loose this game but it was not a shut out and we will not win them all. only have 3 losses and still first in the afc. I am actually rooting rooting for KC to keep the patriots one game ahead of everyone else and even if denver wins we are still a game ahead. We will just have to win out the rest of the season which is in reach, but san deigo is not joke either . I do think the patriots will not allow the dolphins to do what they did at the beginning of the season again.

  22. On a weather note. Anyone Notice the parade of Arctic Highs passing just
    to our North on the EURO? Not sure what it means, but interesting.

      1. It could be, as they are consistently passing pretty much
        West to East North of us, with only glancing blows of cold
        invading our area. I presume that would be cold enough, IF
        we could get a storm system from the Southern Stream
        to run into that cold. ‘ll be watching. 😀

  23. The Pats lost by 5 points ON THE ROAD to the best team in the NFC. Not even close to disaster. They just didn’t win the game. And regardless of the rest of the games, they are STILL the best team in the AFC.

    Believe me, all is well, and they are in great shape heading down the stretch.

    And losing to the Packers today doesn’t say anything about any potential rematch in the Superbowl. That would be a brand new ballgame, literally and figuratively. They didn’t really play that poorly today, overall. Some things could have been done better. But if you look at the tape, the Packers could have done some things better as well. They just got 5 more points than the Pats. Onto the next!

      1. We are ready to go!

        The only thing I didn’t do was the artificial tree in my parent’s part of the house. We’re going to do that tomorrow evening. And there will be a few last min touch ups for Tuesday evening. Otherwise, we’re done. 🙂

    1. nor do i want to see what happened to the city that last hosted the olympics, those stadiums are not being used for anything

      1. I think the city would ace it if they hosted. And most of the venues would be places that already exist. The only thing that would really need to be built would possibly be an olympic stadium for opening and closing ceremonies, and depending on which olympics they hosted, they could possibly use existing stadiums nearby, Gillette perhaps.

  25. Well I am now routing for the Jets to beat the Phish. My guess is that the Pats will go 11-5 or 12-4 depending on which players start which games. I think not letting Grey play was not the thing to do on O. And on D well things could have been better.

    1. My opinion gray is really being treated unfairly . You proved the point bill now put him back in and see what he can do.

  26. Wow, its so nice out for December 1st ….. I cant believe its December !!

    Even Mt. Washington is sharing in the mildness, 36F.

  27. Someone on this blog mentioned Jonas Gray’s continued benching. It is unfair. It is petulant. Belichick is Stalinist. He doesn’t tolerate any dissent or any excuses. I can’t say I like that about him at all. He’s a terrific coach (well, chess master), but a miserable human being. Personally, I think his press conferences are a disgrace. I think the way he treated his ex-wife is disgraceful. And, the way he treats his players is disgraceful.

    1. or perhaps Lergarrette Blount is better? Jonas Gray was a journeyman who had 1 game against a very poor run defense. Blount has proven to perform here, Maybe its not a matter of benching him, but he played against the colts simply because there was no one else to run the ball.

      1. And that is a realistic assessment.
        He did get the ball at least once that I saw yesterday.
        No that I am complaining, but I wonder why Bolden played?

        Onto to San Diego to TAKE care of business.

        It WILL be Green BAY or “possibly” Seattle in the Super Bowl.

        Now we have to NOT let up and get the job done so we can be there!

      2. Blount is better than Gray. But, Gray is better than Vereen at running the ball. Vereen can catch and run, but he is not a legitimate running back. I’m not saying Gray is, but he’s better than Vereen.

      3. So Blount basically walks out on his previous team and Gray is late to one practice. Hmmm, me thinks there’s a double standard here

        1. I have to believe there is more to this that we don’t know.

          Mrs. OS believes that ALL of the notoriety received by gray, the 201 yeards including the SI cover, went to his head. BB is blowing it out of his head.

  28. Any further thoughts on the possible precipitation that will probably require shovels at some point over the weekend?

  29. Unless I am missing something, NOTHING interesting showing on any models just yet.
    Will continue to monitor. 😀

  30. Notice how SHALLOW the cold is with these Arctic/Polar Highs passing to
    Our North. Lot’s of warmth still be shoved Northward by Southern Stream.

    A little low will form on the “Arctic” (I don’t think I’d call the front an Arctic front.
    Polar? Perhaps? Arctic? I dunno) front tomorrow and move NE.

    Latest models depict this low moving up as an INSIDE RUNNER.
    GEEZ, get some cold and what do we get for it? An INSIDE RUNNER!
    Gimmie a break!

  31. First day of meteorological winter and it does not feel winter like. I don’t look at this as an omen for the winter. December 1st, 2010 was mild and rainy and then just after Christmas we had that six week stretch of storm after storm.

  33. Hazardous weather outlook up for parts of the interior for the risk of light snow sleet freezing rain tomorrow night into Wednesday morning before going over to rain. Then a low chance for some snow and or ice for the weekend.

    1. Stick a fork in it.
      We’re in a Crappy pattern IF you like snow.
      When it does get cold, it is too shallow, meaning sleet if anything at all
      frozen should precip run into it.

      Look at the 850MB temperatures.

      When cold we would expect 850MB temps to be less than -10C.
      They’re running -2 or -3 at best. Really Crappy Cold air. Almost Dirty cold air.
      An IMPOSTER if you will.

  38. Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity 3h3 hours ago
    Finally starting to see what appears to be a weak El Nino p[attern developing. SOI’s are staying down now on a consistent basis.

  39. Logan’s total snowfall for November 2014 = 2.6″

    Logan’s average November snowfall = 1.3″

    Diff = +1.3″

    We are off to a good start, BUT there is no correlation between November snowfall and the upcoming winter. Anything goes at this point onward.

      1. Notice I said its a big player. I think we are going to do ok this winter with snow on the high side. I’m betting we have plowable snow at least once before Xmas. Wish the entire month would stay like this. No jacket needed working outside today, it’s so nice.

  42. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
    NOAA advertising 2014 as “hottest year ever” — by how many °C will that record be broken/set?
    (a) 10 °C
    (b) 1° C
    (c) 0.1° C
    (d) 0.01°C

  43. From Dr. Judah Cohen:

    “We’re predicting above normal precipitation for right along the East Coast,” Cohen said. “So a wet winter — but I’m especially bullish over the possibility of an above normal snowfall.”

  49. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 59m59 minutes ago
    PNA up, up, and away

    The Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) is one of the most recognized, influential climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes beyond the tropics. It consists of anomalies in the geopotential height fields (typically at 700 or 500mb) observed over the western and eastern United States. It is important to note that the PNA has been found to be strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The positive phase of the PNA pattern tends to be associated with Pacific warm episodes (El Niño), and the negative phase tends to be associated with Pacific cold episodes (La Niña).

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3yXdiZCcAAZoyr.png

    Positive PNA

    The positive phase consists of above normal geopotential heights over the western U.S. and below normal geopotential heights over the eastern U.S. This correlates to ridging over the western U.S., and deep troughing over the east. The net result of the height field pattern in this phase is that it forces cold air residing in Canada to plunge southeastward, which results in below normal temperatures over the eastern U.S. and above normal temperatures over the western U.S.

    If that’s the case, ALL models indicate ANYTHING BUT that.
    So I must be out to lunch and totally missing something!!

    1. Ryan Maue posted the first sentence and the link. The other stuff I posted
      from:

      State Climate Office of North Carolina Email: sco@climate.ncsu.edu
      Phone: 919-515-3056
      Data and Products Aspects of NC Climate Educational Outreach About Our Office

      Global Patterns – Pacific/North American (PNA)

    2. +PNA might cause a ridge out west and trough east, but coupled with the +NAO and +AO, the tough is very shallow and the coldest air stays north. If the latter 2 indices flip negative, we will get buried

    1. Makes me wonder 2 things:

      1. Will it arrive sooner than advertised? I think so
      2. Will there be MORE precip that advertised? Looks that way

      BUT it’s New England, It’s Weather and It’s this year, so ANYTHING
      can happen.

      BUT I have a feeling we will be watching the ole radars tomorrow afternoon
      and predicting changeover times, accumulations etc.

      1. Ahh, I’m probably over reacting to this crappy pattern and
        blowing smoke out of my Arse. 😀

        We shall see.

  55. By the time the big “Arctic” 😆 😆 😆 High moves off just this far,
    850mb 0C line has passed the Boston area moving RAPIDLY NORTHWARD.

    This ain’t no stinken cold air. A total Imposter! Why cool off at all.
    Stay the bleep warm then.

  57. Just watched the official video for Boston’s bid for the summer olympics 2024. http://swimswam.com/watch-2024-boston-olympic-bid-promotional-video/ As awesome as it would be, once you get past that initial excitement and start thinking logically about it, there’s NO way it would work, well at least. I understand they could use some existing venues but where are they gonna build an olympic stadium? What about an olympic “park” where the athletes stay? (no, Patriot Place is not an option) How do we deal with the massive temporary increase in population in the area. We can’t even handle the population we have now. I love Boston dont get me wrong, but its not a major international hub. I guess you can say the same for Atlanta too, but look how that turned out. When I talk to some of my international colleagues, they all say Boston is not a place they think of as a major attraction. I would like to think the olympic committee is intelligent enough to figure all this out. We shall see.

    1. You said the operable word: intelligent

      I think this is being prepared with the Heart and not the Head.

      I agree that it wouldn’t work. Not based on my experience with this area.
      Talk about GRIDLOCK????

    2. Where there’s a will (ie: money), there’s a way.. We put a damn road under the ocean in the big dig. They could figure out an Olympics I’m betting.

      1. Of course, that’s always the kicker. Doesn’t make it right or
        the correct decision either.

        I say GO AWAY!!!! I don’t want it.

        Not that it would, but IF it went to a vote, I would vote AGAINST IT!

        1. Oh but we did vote and voted for it. We voted for the reps in the house and senate who voted in favor

        2. I’d be totally for it except what about all those buildings when it’s over. Big huge monoliths that we’d be on the hook to maintain forever.

      2. we have some of the best roads in the usa. Sometimes i wonder what the hell they are making the roads with down in the mid atlantic when i go down there because the roads stinks

    3. Ace would be a kick to host the Olympics. However, not practical. Parking alone would be a nightmare but as you say we simply cannot handle it. And that is fine and does not take anything from the amazing city Boston is.

      1. Definitely not taking anything away from the great city of Boston. Its just not the place for something like this.

    3. I’ll vote for neither.

      I’d think in they eye itself, there are characteristics of both.

      The intense rising air in the big thunderstorms in the eye-wall …. I think all of that rising air sinks in the eye, much like in high pressure. All of that sinking air is what gives the eye its clearness.

      So, in the eye, you have high pressure aloft above intense low pressure at the surface of the eye, so both … or, in the choices above, neither. 🙂 ????? 🙂

  60. Logan’s December avgs :

    Dec 1st : 46.3F

    Dec 31st : 38.0F

    I realize November came in at just over 2F below normal at Logan, but I find that tremendously misleading.

    This is because the month had 4 or 5 very warm days with big daily positive anomolies.

    There were MANY days in the month that were more than 5F below normal and a handful that were 10F below normal. Impressively, very cold autumn month to me.

    If December goes back just to being normal, its going to seem comparatively quite warm to what we just went through the last 30 days.

    1. So true, Tom. Thanks for the temp data. I think December’s going to be well above normal. Not like today, but numerous days that reach 50 and above. The cold November will make December feel very balmy indeed.

  61. Lowest pressure is in the eye, I learned also years ago that the pressure can be much much higher just 100 miles from the center and it can make your ears pop at some of the biggest hurricanes

  62. Just keep in mind that even with a month that runs above average temp wise, doesn’t mean we can’t have big snows. I see signs that by about dec 12th or so we will be talking about cold and snow. Also don’t forget NAO is nearly impossible to predict outside of 7-10 days. Dec can be fickle around here, big storms come out of nowhere.

  63. December 1st, 2010 started out mild and rainy then the pattern flipped after Christmas and we had a lot of snow in a six week period. Just because December starts out mild doesn’t mean below normal snowfall. The winter of 2010-11 proves it.

    1. Need more than 1 season to make a solid case, and that year’s global set-up was quite a bit different than this year’s.

      So it really was just a coincidence that we had mild first days of December in 2010 and 2014. Must look at the overall patterns.

  64. Hadi, JJ, and others, you’re right to point out that things can change in a hurry. Nevertheless, I’m a bit puzzled why so many forecasters are bullish on snow and cold this winter. That is NOT what I’ve been seeing in the long-range models. Brett Anderson has cautioned against being bullish on snow and cold this winter in the northeast. He’s been careful not to be definitive in his assessment. I think most of the cold across the lower 48 will be interior cold (from the Midwest to Idaho), most of the storm systems that impact us will be lakes cutters, and most of our cold will be short-lived impulses often following lakes cutters (cold air dragged in in the wake of storms that exit to our west and north). I mentioned this before, but this winter reminds me a bit of `98 or `99, especially the cooler November followed by a warm but showery December. I cannot stand this kind of weather, quite frankly. It reminds me of the worst of weather in Northwestern Europe: Dark, chances of showers every day, 40s/50s with an occasional cold day thrown in.

  65. Easy one: Eye of hurricane is the center of low pressure.

    I disagree with Dr. Cohen on the above normal snow for the winter overall. At least BIG snow totals. With my 41.1 guess for Boston it’s obvious that I believe they can get close, but I think too many people are giving too much weight to only Siberia snow & borderline weak El Nino.

    Takes more than that. And right now we’re in the midst of a roaring positive NAO, which may continue well into December.

    1. WBZ Accuweather Winter 2014-15 Forecast = cold & snowy 55-65″.

      I always assumed that you and Barry thought alike in terms of forecasting. 😉

  66. Good morning. Yawn Yawn Yawn…Woke up and couldn’t fall back to sleep so I headed here.

    Where’s the BEEF? Big freakin Arctic front? Where? What a JOKE!!!!!
    All the way down to 34, some 15 hours or so POST FRONTAL Passage.
    All this HYPE about an Arctic front. It is totally and completely LAUGHABLE!!!!!!
    PATHETIC!!!

    Just looked at the EURO. Look at these 2 850MB charts for 240 hours (10Days)
    OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCHHHHHH!!!!

    We’ll hit 70 around here IF this crap gets in here (assuming the Euro is correct).

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120200/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120200/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

    1. That’s 14-18 C in Cold country Canada!!!!!!!!!!!!! GEEZ 18C at 850MB in the Summer would support surface temps near 90!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      This is TRULY AMAZING Warmth for this time of year!!!!!

      Must be Global Warming? 😀 😀 😀

  67. Here we sit on the morning of Dec 2nd and look at these ocean temperatures.

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Dec 2 2014, 4:50 am EST
    Water Temperature: 48.7 °F (9.3 °C)

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Dec 2 2014, 5:04 am EST
    Water Temperature: 49.3 °F (9.6 °C)

  68. At least the good news is that California is picking up some serious rain which is welcome news albeit with flooding and mudslides bc it’s been so dry.

  69. Just a thought ……

    October was warm, as was September to a somewhat lesser degree.

    November came along and was suddenly cold, but …… I think its fair to say that the November outcome probably occurred because a super typhoon developed, then transitioned into one of the strongest ever extra-tropical storms and literally shocked the atmosphere into a 3 week big Alaska ridge, big USA trof.

    Well, perhaps that event and its downstream effects have fully come and pass …. and the atmosphere is transitioning back to the dominant big players (teleconnections, El Nino, etc) and right now, that overall mixture seems to be mild to warm.

    I am not surprised that it looks overall warm and the next transition to cold is probably going to have to come from a teleconnection change. I don’t think the tropics will be the “big atmospheric changer” next time.

    1. It looks like we are transitioning to Summer and NOT Winter. 😀

      If these models are correct, it’s REALLY going to get Warm.

      Does the precip later today even start as snow? OR start directly as Rain
      along the coastal plain. The Rain today will fall along the plain. 😀

      1. The dewpoint’s are really low, so, I think it might be one of those cases, that when the column’s briefly still cold enough, the precip will have a difficult time making it in here and of course ….. by the time the column moistens enough, then the whole column wont be cold enough for snow.

  71. OS, we’re going to have to get used to it. December will likely go down as a well above average month in terms of temperature (could be some records broken in the northeast; that’s me going out on a limb), and not just around here. The pool of cold air has more or less retreated to the very far north and of course Eastern Siberia. It may take a very long time for that pool to spread back over Canada and into our region. Unfortunately, I’m seeing signs that I don’t like – a recurrence of 2011-2012 in some respects. Remember that December?

    1. Joshua, I fear you are 100% correct. This morning’s maps are downright Frightful! Brutal.

      Here’s the bigger picture 850mb Anomalies at 240 hours from last night:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120200/ecmwf_T850a_namer_comp240.html

      Here’s the 850Mb temperatures

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120200/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

      The only HINT I see is the possibility of pieces of colder air oozing down
      from Eastern Canada Via Cross Polar from Siberia.

      1. That oozing will happen once the AO turns negative. You would think with all that Siberian snowcover the AO would already be negative

        1. Yes, but such is life. It’s full of surprises and such.
          It NEVER seems to go the way we want it to. 😀

          Will the ground whiten before flipping to RAIN
          this evening? 50-50 at best. 😀

  73. UGH!!!
    Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan tweeted yesterday first few weeks of December going to be quite mild.
    Going to be a lot of rainorama’s if that happens.

  74. Wow, Belichick might have to testify in the Hernandez trial! I can see it now…

    Prosecutor: “So Mr. Belichick, were you aware Mr. Hernandez was involved in such actions?”

    Bill: (snorts) “We’re on to San Diego.”

  76. NWS both out of Taunton and Upton indicating possible wintry mix at some point over the weekend for the interior. I think its more wet than wintry even for those areas.

  77. Funny I don’t usually associated Thunder with “light” precipitation around these parts.

    Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity 2m2 minutes ago
    Don’t be surprised if you have thunder with the wintry mix today across parts of PA and NY.

  78. Anyone know what this means?????

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
    Note from NCEP:
    Wednesday 12/3 – Sunday 12/7 The GFS parallel will not be run after the
    06Z cycle on 12/3.

    1. It means they are giving baby GFS a time out for 5 days after 06z Wednesday for bad behavior. 😛

    1. I saw that this morning Hadi. At first it wasn’t modeled to be very strong but now indications are it will indeed become a super Typhoon. Very interesting.

      1. The question is, where does it go??

        I read something a few days ago that the flow in the Pacific
        was strong West to East so there was ZERO chance of it recurving northward and doing what that other Typhoon did.

        After it invades the Philippines, it weakens and then gathers strength again in the South China Sea and strikes Vietnam.
        That WILL NOT change the teleconnections for us. Sorry.

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120200/ecmwf_mslpa_wpac_11.png

    2. Track …. and I don’t know what its projected to be is also important, I think.

      If there’s a super typhoon, but it tracks west bound in the western Pacific and eventually dies over some landmass, I don’t think it will have as much influence as if it were to take that track just east of Japan, then northeastward, approaching SW Alaska ………

    2. With the current projection of where that typhoon would be going, I would have to respectfully disagree with Joe Bastardi, if he thinks that the same scenario that happened in November is coming in December. Appears to be a much different scenario, in my opinion.

      It could well get cold in mid December, but I don’t think any assistance is coming from the tropics this go around.

      1. Agree totally and completely.

        No Super Typhoon transitioning to Extra-Tropical to change
        the teleconnections. No Way. That doesn’t meant the cold
        doesn’t come anyway, however.

  81. I am just going with the mind set until at least mid December this UGH pattern if you like snow and cold like I do is going to be here. Any wintry precipitation that falls in that time period will be in the interior and like today won’t be much before going to rain.

  85. I am hoping it doesn’t rain when picking out the Christmas tree this weekend for my mom’s house. We have picked the tree up every December with all sorts of weather with highs in the mid 70s 1998 cold temps, snow flakes in the air but never rain.

    1. I concur. I was just out for awhile, including walking the streets of
      Downtown Boston. I witnessed “smoething” frozen from the sky.
      NOT much of anything, but I did see it. COuld see it on windshield on the
      way back to the office. 😀

    2. Btw, while I was out, it was DARK.

      It looked, felt and Smelled like SNOW! 😀

      Low clouds rolling in from the ocean.

  88. Good afternoon!! It really is looking like a snowless December at this point from seeing the models, no real old air. Maybe January? I’m ready for snow, if it’s gonna it’s got to the next 8 weeks, or else its onto spring once mid Feb is here 🙂

      1. You would be suprised being in a medium size lawn business, I usually wait till beginning of March but many many lawn companies start in mid to late feb, it happens almost every year right under your nose, so while your worried about snow on Feb 25th many are applying lime apps, just saying how it really is out there 🙂

  90. Wind at Logan has gone from Due North to Due East in 2 hours.
    How the bleep can that happen??????????????

    02 12:54 E 15 10.00 Overcast OVC032 37 27 38 33 67% 28 NA 30.67 1038.3
    02 11:54 NE 16 10.00 Overcast OVC032 37 25 62% 28 NA 30.68 1038.8
    02 10:54 N 12 10.00 Overcast OVC034 35 21 57% 27 NA 30.70 1039.6

    1. Models had it. Warm front approaching .. wind often veers from north or northeast to east or southeast. 🙂

  92. Somerville is finally changed there zoning and the suburbs r building what Boston will not build, someday the suburbs inside 128 will be scattered with 20-30 story skyscrapers for more residents to live, this is fantastic news, 5 new towers are on the way, they will range between 2-300ft tall 🙂

  93. Well Charlie, I don’t run a landscaping business but I do have a degree in meteorology, which it does not take to know that regardless whether there is snow on the ground or not on February 25, it’s still Winter, not Spring. 😉

    By your logic, if we have a late season snowstorm in April, then because there is snow on the ground it would be Winter. But you’d never say that, because that’s the start of swimming season. 😀

  98. To confirm what Hadi and I were saying. 3PM obs from Logan:

    Max. Min.
    02 14:54 E 16 9.00 Light Snow OVC034 37 26 65% 28 NA 30.66 1038.3

    OR

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W
    2 Day History

    Light Snow
    37.0 °F
    Last Updated: Dec 2 2014, 2:54 pm EST
    Tue, 02 Dec 2014 14:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Light Snow
    Temperature: 37.0 °F (2.8 °C)
    Dewpoint: 26.1 °F (-3.3 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 65 %
    Wind: East at 16.1 MPH (14 KT)
    Wind Chill: 28 F (-2 C)
    Visibility: 9.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1038.3 mb
    Altimeter: 30.66 in Hg

  99. Didn’t put them in the outlook because they will be short-lived, but a few ocean-effect snow showers near the city. They are very light.

    Blog is updated!

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